West Virginia Short Form Settlement: Fill & Download for Free

This is a very good question! This actually is a phenomenon that is indeed concentrated within a lot of old colonial families with Anglo or Scotch-Irish backgrounds.And there are reasons for this.But, first, I have to mention something up front…in order to counter the most common misunderstanding of this issue.This is as follows: no, the high rate of such stories in this particular population is not because there is an actual increased level of Native ancestry, or that it’s just a reflection of some legitimate prevalence rate. The reality is, there is not an elevated degree of Native ancestry in this population, and this phenomenon is propelled by false claims or bogus family lore.The average level of non-European admixture in the non-Hispanic White population is incredibly low. It’s also approximately the same for African and Native Americans admixture, at 0.19 and 0.18%, respectively. The level of Native admixture in this population could only be said to be as follows: a certain low single digit percentage have a very low level of Native ancestry. And it is actually lower in areas that traditionally claim this ancestry at higher rates, such as in Appalachian states.ScienceDirectThis above map comes from an extremely large study using 23andme data. You’ll notice in graph B, it shows the percentage of White populations (by state) that have at least 2% Native admixture. See how it is lower in GA, AL, TN, WW, and still low in KY and NC? These are the states where a rather significant number of families claim to be “part-Indian” or have some level of Native American ancestry. And this can be compared to the African admixture graph, to the left. Notice how those states have a slightly elevated level of African admixture there? Well, it’s almost never claimed by White families (the way “Indian blood” is, anyway).Maps: Showing areas with highest concentration of Scot-Irish ancestry, and historic settlement patterns.Or, we might use the self-categorized “American” ethnicity, to identity these very old colonial lineages (mostly of this British Isles background).Okay, now the question is really about why?Well, this really has to do with history and demography and the disposition of this population, particularly settlement patterns and social and cultural dynamics.Anglos and Scotch Irish were among the first wave of colonists, and they were the primary groups that pushed west form the Atlantic seaboard settlements. Those that pushed west from the Virginia and Carolina settlements moved in cluster patterns and pushing out the frontier settlements. This also meant they frequently pushed into tribal lands or freshly ceded lands. They were often Indian fighters and received land grants, or they were squatters in some cases.These Anglo and Scotch-Irish families that were pushing the frontier forward also weren’t leaving a lot of records. They weren’t living in highly settled and bureaucratic towns and cities. A male might have just a few land transaction or court records, and they might be listed as a head of household on census records from the late 1700 thru the early 1800s. And females left even fewer records, sometime no records exist for them at all. Marriage records were spotty or non-existent in that early colonial era. Also, the illiteracy rate was rather high, and the families didn’t really keep very good family records. Some might try to maintain a family bible, and record births and deaths. But, it often just spanned a few generations. So, knowledge about deeper lineage could be lost by these descendants in rather short order.It is within this cultural milieu that the stories of Indian blood grew. The families just new basic facts, and often these got skewed over time. And female ancestors could be rather mysterious or nebulous figures. So, stories got more romantic and fanciful with the retelling. Or, what started out as simply theories or speculation were retold to point where the details got solidified as “fact.”In particular, I can just tell you the standard patterns I see over and over again.In some cases, you’ll see where a family like this (old Anglo/Scot-Irish roots) will come from early 1700s eastern seaboard settlements. They push into the central parts of VA and NC, SC and eastern GA by the mid to latter half of the 1700s. By the time of the American Revolution to about 1800s they were pushing into the western parts of those states, and into northeast Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Also, pushing further into GA and Alabama, and parts of MS. Then, by the 1830s, the southeast tribes are all removed, and the population moves into the last portion of ceded Indian lands. And the families live in these locations for generations.Fast forward to the late 1800s to early 1900s, the descendants have been in the area for a long time and they’ve built up tall tales and stories about their family roots and ancestry. Some of the details that are claimed are broadly true, and others are totally bogus. They tend to think of themselves or there families as always being from eastern Tennessee or northern Georgia. And they know there were Cherokee in that area (the lands on which they now reside). So, they like to speculate that they got some of that Cherokee blood.One of the most common claims is that a grandparent was “part-Cherokee” or “Indian.” Usually this was through a maternal line, such as a great-grandmother being full blood or half blood. Something to that effect. But, as was explained above, the details are scant for this female ancestors. They don’t even know her maiden name or who her parents were. To fill in the gaps, they come up with fanciful stories about her being a chief’s daughter, or there was some scandal in the marriage, so she had to run away. Or, the family had to hide out, pass for white, etc.A lot of these additional details are constructions that have an emotional or psychological element. They allow the claimant to enhance their authenticity and genuine link to the land. It gives them a quasi-indigenous standing. They weren’t just descendants of settlers that fought Indians or took their lands. No, they are “part-Indian.”They also often ascribe various attributes to it, such as: “That’s why I’m so feisty/can’t hold my liquor/can walk so quietly in the woods/have vivid dreams/ feel a connection with nature/etc./etc., it’s that Indian blood!” So, it’s is a romanticized notion, used for individualistic purposes. An actual link to a tribal community or verified ancestry is unimportant.Beyond that, there was an eastern Cherokee land claims settlement that took place in the early 1900s, and this was widely publicized, that if you had some Cherokee blood, you could get some money. So, a lot of poor whites from this particular population put in fraudulent applications claiming to be part-Cherokee.Additionally, many branches of these old settler families continued moving west from Appalachia and pushed into Arkansas, Missouri, Texas and even Kansas by the 1840s and 1850s. Then, by the late 1800s they began to push into Indian Territory. In the 1890s, thru 1907, the tribal lands were being allotted to tribal members and surplus lands were opened up to settlements. Again, there was this notion that claiming to be part-Cherokee or Native might get you some free land or money. So, hundreds of thousands of poor and shady whites again put in fraudulent applications. With a few exceptions that involved scheming and payoffs, the majority of these applications were rejected.But, just think about how modern descendants would typically react when they discover their ancestors’ applications. Most will not believe they were lying or incorrect. This is a natural thing too. We don’t like to arrive at the conclusion that our family, our ancestors, were shady or lying. Consequently, the majority will assume there was at least some basis for the claim and that there was actually some validity to it, but it was just that they couldn’t prove it by the record trail or it was perhaps a matter of silly bureaucracy.So, think about how many such descendants exist today, whose ancestors put in these fraudulent or bogus Eastern Claims Settlements and Dawes (Allotment) Rolls applications. The vast majority will indeed still be claiming to be “part-Cherokee/Native” today, and it’s all based on this ancestral fraud attempt that took place in the late 1800s to early 1900s. It ripples through the generations.I see this all the time.Another hallmark of this population is that they dramatically overestimate the level of Indian-White intermarriages, or they think that a significant number of such marriages took place in White society, or that there was a large number of individual Indians that stayed in White society when the eastern tribes were removed (which wasn’t the case)> So, they have a skewed and incorrect sense of American and Native history.You can see in much of my content, I try to show specific examples of how this lore is usually incorrect. But, often people are gun-shy about really vetting their stories. A good majority actually just like the myth or lore, rather than verifying the ancestry. Just the recitation of the lore becomes the “heritage.” Researching the claims runs the risk of spoiling this.But, I always invite people with such claims to share their stories and see where they go. It’s been my experience that if you have 100 such stories (of “Cherokee blood”) that 99 will be bogus. Maybe 1 might have some grain of truth. However, it’s fascinating to run across accurate claims. It’s almost like a needle in a haystack, or finding buried treasure. And it’s a rather cool thing to discover.If anyone has such stories and wants to explore it further, please comment below.

Okay, maybe this question doesn't says it comes from lottery, but still, it is still related to sudden gotten wealth. Here's the story:Congratulations! You just won millions of dollars in the lottery! That's great.Now you're fucked.No really.You are.You're fucked.If you just want to skip the biographical tales of woe of some of the math-tax protagonists, skip on down to the next comment, to see what to do in the event you win the lottery.You see, it's something of an open secret that winners of obnoxiously large jackpots tend to end up badly with alarming regularity. Not the $1 million dollar winners. But anyone in the nine-figure range is at high risk. Eight-figures? Pretty likely to be screwed. Seven-figures? Yep. Painful. Perhaps this is a consequence of the sample. The demographics of lottery players might be exactly the wrong people to win large sums of money. Or perhaps money is the root of all evil. Either way, you are going to have to be careful. Don't believe me? Consider this:Large jackpot winners face double digit multiples of probability versus the general population to be the victim of:Homicide (something like 20x more likely)Drug overdoseBankruptcy (how's that for irony?)KidnappingAnd triple digit multiples of probability versus the general population rate to be:Convicted of drunk drivingThe victim of Homicide (at the hands of a family member) 120x more likely in this case, ain't love grand?A defendant in a civil lawsuitA defendant in felony criminal proceedingsBelieve it or not, your biggest enemy if you suddenly become possessed of large sums of money is... you. At least you will have the consolation of meeting your fate by your own hand. But if you can't manage it on your own, don't worry. There are any number of willing participants ready to help you start your vicious downward spiral for you. Mind you, many of these will be "friends," "friendly neighbors," or "family." Often, they won't even have evil intentions. But, as I'm sure you know, that makes little difference in the end. Most aren't evil. Most aren't malicious. Some are. None are good for you.Jack Whittaker, a Johnny Cash attired, West Virginia native, is the poster boy for the dangers of a lump sum award. In 2002 Mr. Whittaker (55 years old at the time) won what was, also at the time, the largest single award jackpot in U.S. history. $315 million. At the time, he planned to live as if nothing had changed, or so he said. He was remarkably modest and decent before the jackpot, and his ship sure came in, right? Wrong.Mr. Whittaker became the subject of a number of personal challenges, escalating into personal tragedies, complicated by a number of legal troubles.Whittaker wasn't a typical lottery winner either. His net worth at the time of his winnings was in excess of $15 million, owing to his ownership of a successful contracting firm in West Virginia. His claim to want to live "as if nothing had changed" actually seemed plausible. He should have been well equipped for wealth. He was already quite wealthy, after all. By all accounts he was somewhat modest, low profile, generous and good natured. He should have coasted off into the sunset. Yeah. Not exactly.Whittaker took the all-cash option, $170 million, instead of the annuity option, and took possession of $114 million in cash after $56 million in taxes. After that, things went south.Whittaker quickly became the subject of a number of financial stalkers, who would lurk at his regular breakfast hideout and accost him with suggestions for how to spend his money. They were unemployed. No, an interview tomorrow morning wasn't good enough. They needed cash NOW. Perhaps they had a sure-fire business plan. Their daughter had cancer. A niece needed dialysis. Needless to say, Whittaker stopped going to his breakfast haunt. Eventually, they began ringing his doorbell. Sometimes in the early morning. Before long he was paying off-duty deputies to protect his family. He was accused of being heartless. Cold. Stingy.Letters poured in. Children with cancer. Diabetes. MS. You name it. He hired three people to sort the mail. A detective to filter out the false claims and the con men (and women) was retained.Brenda, the clerk who had sold Whittaker the ticket, was a victim of collateral damage. Whittaker had written her a check for $44,000 and bought her house, but she was by no means a millionaire. Rumors that the state routinely paid the clerk who had sold the ticket 10% of the jackpot winnings hounded her. She was followed home from work. Threatened. Assaulted.Whittaker's car was twice broken into, by trusted acquaintances who watched him leave large amounts of cash in it. $500,000 and $200,000 were stolen in two separate instances. The thieves spiked Whittaker's drink with prescription drugs in the first instance. The second incident was the handiwork of his granddaughter's friends, who had been probing the girl for details on Whittaker's cash for weeks.Even Whittaker's good-faith generosity was questioned. When he offered $10,000 to improve the city's water park so that it was more handicap accessible, locals complained that he spent more money at the strip club. (Amusingly this was true).Whittaker invested quite a bit in his own businesses, tripled the number of people his businesses employed (making him one of the larger employers in the area) and eventually had given away $14 million to charity through a foundation he set up for the purpose. This is, of course, what you are "supposed" to do. Set up a foundation. Be careful about your charity giving. It made no difference in the end.To top it all off, Whittaker had been accused of ruining a number of marriages. His money made other men look inferior, they said, wherever he went in the small West Virginia town he called home. Resentment grew quickly. And festered. Whittaker paid four settlements related to this sort of claim. Yes, you read that right. Four.His family and their immediate circle were quickly the victims of odds-defying numbers of overdoses, emergency room visits and even fatalities. His granddaughter, the eighteen year old "Brandi" (who Whittaker had been giving a $2100.00 per week allowance) was found dead after having been missing for several weeks. Her death was, apparently, from a drug overdose, but Whittaker suspected foul play. Her body had been wrapped in a tarp and hidden behind a rusted-out van. Her seventeen year old boyfriend had expired three months earlier in Whittaker's vacation house, also from an overdose. Some of his friends had robbed the house after his overdose, stepping over his body to make their escape and then returning for more before stepping over his body again to leave. His parents sued for wrongful death claiming that Whittaker's loose purse strings contributed to their son's death. Amazingly, juries are prone to award damages in cases such as these. Whittaker settled. Again.Even before the deaths, the local and state police had taken a special interest in Whittaker after his new-found fame. He was arrested for minor and less minor offenses many times after his winnings, despite having had a nearly spotless record before the award. Whittaker's high profile couldn't have helped him much in this regard.In 18 months Whittaker had been cited for over 250 violations ranging from broken tail lights on every one of his five new cars, to improper display of renewal stickers. A lawsuit charging various police organizations with harassment went nowhere and Whittaker was hit with court costs instead.Whittaker's wife filed for divorce, and in the process froze a number of his assets and the accounts of his operating companies. Caesars in Atlantic City sued him for $1.5 million to cover bounced checks, caused by the asset freeze.Today Whittaker is badly in debt, and bankruptcy looms large in his future.But, hey, that's just one example, right?Wrong.Nearly one third of multi-million dollar jackpot winners eventually declare bankruptcy. Some end up worse. To give you just a taste of the possibilities, consider the fates of:Billie Bob Harrell, Jr.: $31 million. Texas, 1997. As of 1999: Committed suicide in the wake of incessant requests for money from friends and family. “Winning the lottery is the worst thing that ever happened to me.William âBud❠Post: $16.2 million. Pennsylvania. 1988. In 1989: Brother hires a contract murderer to kill him and his sixth wife. Landlady sued for portion of the jackpot. Convicted of assault for firing a gun at a debt collector. Declared bankruptcy. Dead in 2006.Evelyn Adams: $5.4 million (won TWICE 1985, 1986). As of 2001: Poor and living in a trailer gave away and gambled most of her fortune.Suzanne Mullins: $4.2 million. Virginia. 1993. As of 2004: No assets left.Shefik Tallmadge: $6.7 million. Arizona. 1988. As of 2005: Declared bankruptcy.Thomas Strong: $3 million. Texas. 1993. As of 2006: Died in a shoot-out with police.Victoria Zell: $11 million. 2001. Minnesota. As of 2006: Broke. Serving seven year sentence for vehicular manslaughter.Karen Cohen: $1 million. Illinois. 1984. As of 2000: Filed for bankruptcy. As of 2006: Sentenced to 22 months for lying to federal bankruptcy court.Jeffrey Dampier: $20 million. Illinois. 1996. As of 2006: Kidnapped and murdered by own sister-in-law.Ed Gildein: $8.8 million. Texas. 1993. As of 2003: Dead. Wife saddled with his debts. As of 2005: Wife sued by her own daughter who claimed that she was taking money from a trust fund and squandering cash in Las Vegas.Willie Hurt: $3.1 million. Michigan. 1989. As of 1991: Addicted to cocaine. Divorced. Broke. Indicted for murder.Michael Klingebiel: $2 million. As of 1998 sued by own mother claiming he failed to share the jackpot with her.Janite Lee: $18 million. 1993. Missouri. As of 2001: Filed for bankruptcy with $700 in assets.So, what the hell DO you do if you are unlucky enough to win the lottery?This is the absolutely most important thing you can do right away: NOTHING.Yes. Nothing.DO NOT DECLARE YOURSELF THE WINNER yet.Do NOT tell anyone. The urge is going to be nearly irresistible. Resist it. Trust me.1. IMMEDIATELY retain an attorney.Get a partner from a larger, NATIONAL firm. Don't let them pawn off junior partners or associates on you. They might try, all law firms might, but insist instead that your lead be a partner who has been with the firm for awhile. Do NOT use your local attorney. Yes, I mean your long-standing family attorney who did your mother's will. Do not use the guy who fought your dry-cleaner bill. Do not use the guy you have trusted your entire life because of his long and faithful service to your family. In fact, do not use any firm that has any connection to family or friends or community. TRUST me. This is bad. You want someone who has never heard of you, any of your friends, or any member of your family. Go the closest big city and walk into one of the national firms asking for one of the "Trust and Estates" partners you have previously looked up on http://www.martindale.comfrom one of the largest 50 firms in the United States which has an office near you. You can look up attorneys by practice area and firm on Martindale.2. Decide to take the lump sum.Most lotteries pay a really pathetic rate for the annuity. It usually hovers around 4.5% annual return or less, depending. It doesn't take much to do better than this, and if you have the money already in cash, rather than leaving it in the hands of the state, you can pull from the capital whenever you like. If you take the annuity you won't have access to that cash. That could be good. It could be bad. It's probably bad unless you have a very addictive personality. If you need an allowance managed by the state, it is because you didn't listen to point #1 above.Why not let the state just handle it for you and give you your allowance?Many state lotteries pay you your "allowance" (the annuity option) by buying U.S. treasury instruments and running the interest payments through their bureaucracy before sending it to you along with a hunk of the principal every month. You will not be beating inflation by much, if at all. There is no reason you couldn't do this yourself, if a low single-digit return is acceptable to you.You aren't going to get even remotely the amount of the actual jackpot. Take our old friend Mr. Whittaker. Using Whittaker is a good model both because of the reminder of his ignominious decline, and the fact that his winning ticket was one of the larger ones on record. If his situation looks less than stellar to you, you might have a better perspective on how "large" your winnings aren't. Whittaker's "jackpot" was $315 million. He selected the lump-sum cash up-front option, which knocked off $145 million (or 46% of the total) leaving him with $170 million. That was then subject to withholding for taxes of $56 million (33%) leaving him with $114 million.In general, you should expect to get about half of the original jackpot if you elect a lump sum (maybe better, it depends). After that, you should expect to lose around 33% of your already pruned figure to state and federal taxes. (Your mileage may vary, particularly if you live in a state with aggressive taxation schemes).3. Decide right now, how much you plan to give to family and friends.This really shouldn't be more than 20% or so. Figure it out right now. Pick your number. Tell your lawyer. That's it. Don't change it. 20% of $114 million is $22.8 million. That leaves you with $91.2 million. DO NOT CONSULT WITH FAMILY when deciding how much to give to family. You are going to get advice that is badly tainted by conflict of interest, and if other family members find out that Aunt Flo was consulted and they weren't you will never hear the end of it. Neither will Aunt Flo. This might later form the basis for an allegation that Aunt Flo unduly influenced you and a lawsuit might magically appear on this basis. No, I'm not kidding. I know of one circumstance (related to a business windfall, not a lottery) where the plaintiffs WON this case.Do NOT give anyone cash. Ever. Period. Just don't. Do not buy them houses. Do not buy them cars. Tell your attorney that you want to provide for your family, and that you want to set up a series of trusts for them that will total 20% of your after tax winnings. Tell him you want the trust empowered to fund higher education, some help (not a total) purchase of their first home, some provision for weddings and the like, whatever. Do NOT put yourself in the position of handing out cash. Once you do, if you stop, you will be accused of being a heartless bastard (or bitch). Trust me. It won't go well.It will be easy to lose perspective. It is now the duty of your friends, family, relatives, hangers-on and their inner circle to skew your perspective, and they take this job quite seriously. Setting up a trust, a managed fund for your family that is in the double digit millions is AMAZINGLY generous. You need never have trouble sleeping because you didn't lend Uncle Jerry $20,000 in small denomination unmarked bills to start his chain of deep-fried peanut butter pancake restaurants. ("Deep'n 'nutter Restaurants") Your attorney will have a number of good ideas how to parse this wealth out without turning your siblings/spouse/children/grandchildren/cousins/waitresses into the latest Paris Hilton.4. You will be encouraged to hire an investment manager. Considerable pressure will be applied. Don't.Investment managers charge fees, usually a percentage of assets. Consider this: If they charge 1% (which is low, I doubt you could find this deal, actually) they have to beat the market by 1% every year just to break even with a general market index fund. It is not worth it, and you don't need the extra return or the extra risk. Go for the index fund instead if you must invest in stocks. This is a hard rule to follow. They will come recommended by friends. They will come recommended by family. They will be your second cousin on your mother's side. Investment managers will sound smart. They will have lots of cool acronyms. They will have nice PowerPoint presentations. They might (MIGHT) pay for your shrimp cocktail lunch at TGI Friday's while reminding you how poor their side of the family is. They live for this stuff.You should smile, thank them for their time, and then tell them you will get back to them next week. Don't sign ANYTHING. Don't write it on a cocktail napkin (lottery lawsuit cases have been won and lost over drunkenly scrawled cocktail napkin addition and subtraction figures with lots of zeros on them). Never call them back. Trust me. You will thank me later. This tactic, smiling, thanking people for their time, and promising to get back to people, is going to have to become familiar. You will have to learn to say no gently, without saying the word "no." It sounds underhanded. Sneaky. It is. And its part of your new survival strategy. I mean the word "survival" quite literally.Get all this figured out BEFORE you claim your winnings. They aren't going anywhere. Just relax.5. If you elect to be more global about your paranoia, use between 20.00% and 33.00% of what you have not decided to commit to a family fund IMMEDIATELY to purchase a combination of longer term U.S. treasuries (5 or 10 year are a good idea) and perhaps even another G7 treasury instrument. This is your safety net. You will be protected... from yourself.You are going to be really tempted to starting being a big investor. You are going to be convinced that you can double your money in Vegas with your awesome Roulette system/by funding your friend's amazing idea to sell Lemming dung/buying land for oil drilling/by shorting the North Pole Ice market (global warming, you know). This all sounds tempting because "Even if I lose it all I still have $XX million left! Anyone could live on that comfortably for the rest of their life." Yeah, except for 33% of everyone who won the lottery.You're not going to double your money, so cool it. Let me say that again. You're not going to double your money, so cool it. Right now, you'll get around 3.5% on the 10 year U.S. treasury. With $18.2 million (20% of $91.2 mil after your absurdly generous family gift) invested in those you will pull down $638,400 per year. If everything else blows up, you still have that, and you will be in the top 1% of income in the United States. So how about you not fuck with it. Eh? And that's income that is damn safe. If we get to the point where the United States defaults on those instruments, we are in far worse shape than worrying about money.If you are really paranoid, you might consider picking another G7 or otherwise mainstream country other than the U.S. according to where you want to live if the United States dissolves into anarchy or Britney Spears is elected to the United States Senate. Put some fraction in something like Swiss Government Bonds at 3%. If the Swiss stop paying on their government debt, well, then you know money really means nothing anywhere on the globe anymore. I'd study small field sustainable agriculture if you think this is a possibility. You might have to start feeding yourself.6. That leaves, say, 80% of $91.2 million or $72.9 million.Here is where things start to get less clear. Personally, I think you should dump half of this, or $36.4 million, into a boring S&P 500 index fund. Find something with low fees. You are going to be constantly tempted to retain "sophisticated" advisers who charge "nominal fees." Don't. Period. Even if you lose every other dime, you have $638,400 per year you didn't have before that will keep coming in until the United States falls into chaos. Fuck advisers and their fees. Instead, drop your $36.4 million in the market in a low fee vehicle. Unless we have an unprecedented downturn the likes of which the United States has never seen, should return around 7.00% or so over the next 10 years. You should expect to touch not even a dime of this money for 10 or 15 or even 20 years. In 20 years $36.4 million could easily become $115 million.7. So you have put a safety net in place.You have provided for your family beyond your wildest dreams. And you still have $36.4 million in "cash." You know you will be getting $638,400 per year unless the capital building is burning, you don't ever need to give anyone you care about cash, since they are provided for generously and responsibly (and can't blow it in Vegas) and you have a HUGE nest egg that is growing at market rates. (Given the recent dip, you'll be buying in at great prices for the market). What now? Whatever you want. Go ahead and burn through $36.4 million in hookers and blow if you want. You've got more security than 99% of the country. A lot of it is in trusts so even if you are sued your family will live well, and progress across generations. If your lawyer is worth his salt (I bet he is) then you will be insulated from most lawsuits anyhow. Buy a nice house or two, make sure they aren't stupid investments though. Go ahead and be an angel investor and fund some startups, but REFUSE to do it for anyone you know. (Friends and money, oil and water - Michael Corleone) Play. Have fun. You earned it by putting together the shoe sizes of your whole family on one ticket and winning the jackpot.Disclaimer: While I know this question doesn't says about getting sudden wealth from lottery, I think this helps too. Plus this is not my writing. It belongs to someone anonymous. So if this is yours and you want me take it down, I'll gladly oblige it.

MAYBE. Common sense experience suggests DROUGHTS ARE THE OPPOSITE OF FLOODING AS HOT IS THE OPPOSITE OF COLD. When it rains or snows it is colder and when it is hot or warm it is drier. We have evidence not too long ago of what happened to the weather during the Little Ice Age and that evidence confirms that flooding dominated the climate and was devastating. Because the earth is cooling and temperatures are in decline therefore the recent flooding should concern us. Did we exit the Little Ice Age around 1780 or was there just a pause in cooling as part of natural variation?Niagara frozen over from Arctic Blast 2019Epic And Massive Flooding In Europe During The Little Ice AgePublished on June 24, 2016Written by http://iceagenow.orgKilled more than 500,000 people.Andrew McKillop has a new article posted at The Market Oracle. Here are some excerpts.This is the global cooling fearIntense flooding in the low countries of Europe became “darkly repetitive” during the Little Ice Age, writes McKillop. The cooling period lasted 450 years,For the Dutch, the Grote Mandrenke is nothing to do with Linux software, but means “The Great Drowning” and is named for the epic and massive flooding that occurred, more and more frequently in the Low Countries of Europe’s North Sea region as Europe’s Little Ice Age intensified.Grote Mandrenke flood killed at least 100 000Normal or predictable spring and autumn flooding was increasingly replaced by large-area and intense flooding, sometimes outside spring and autumn from about 1300, in recurring crises which lasted into the 18th century. In the Low Countries and across Europe, but also elsewhere, the cooling trend starting in the late 13th century became more intense. It brought long cold winters, heavy storms and floods, loss of coastal farmlands, and huge summer sandstorms in coastal areas further damaging agriculture. Climate historians estimate that major flooding on an unpredictable but increasingly frequent basis started as early as 1250. Extreme events like the Grote Mandrenke flood of 1362 which killed at least 100 000 people became darkly repetitive.Other giant floods probably killed 400 000Other giant floods in the region through the next 200 years probably killed a total of 400 000 persons in the coastlands of what is now Belgium, Germany and Holland. At the time, Europe’s population was at most a quarter of today’s, meaning that corrected for population size these were really catastrophic disasters. During this time, the Zuider Zee region of northern Holland was inundated and its former farmlands disappeared under water – for several centuries.Crop failures and faminesThe basic reasons was that the weather was getting colder, as well as more unpredictable. As the climate cooled, it also became wetter. Combined with the cold, this caused more crop failures and famines spread as the northern limit of farming retreated south. The start of the cooling – called Europe’s Little Ice Age by glaciologist Francois Matthes in 1939 – in the 13th century was in fact the start of a long, sometimes steep dip in temperatures that held sway on an unpredictable, on-and-off basis until at least the first decade of the 19th century. Overall, the cooling lasted about 450 years.Preceded by more than two centuries of much warmer more predictable weatherMaking things worse, the cooling had been preceded by more than two centuries of much warmer and better, more predictable weather. Farming moved northwards, seasons were predictable, food supplies had expanded. Europe’s population also grew, in some regions tripling in 200 years. The colonization of Greenland, which failed when the cooling intensified, was a well-known historical spinoff from the previous warming, but by the 16th century there was no trace of Europeans in Greenland. Only ruins of their farms and homes could be found, but with few or no tombstones dated beyond the early 15th century, leading to the theory that these early “Climate Refugees” packed their longboats and sailed south, to what is now the New England coast. Where they became easy prey for American Indian tribes along those coasts.And as more evidence shows that the Medieval Warm Period was no isolated event in Europe but was a global phenomenon, McKillop’s analysis takes on more immediate relevance:The climate historian Hubert H. Lamb in his 2002 book ‘Climate History and the Modern World’ dates the cooling to two main phases. The first leg of this change he places at about 1200-1400, but his second phase of about 1500-1825 which for some climate historians is Europe’s Little Ice Age, was marked by much steeper drops in average temperatures. Indicators used by Lamb and other climate historians like Emmanuel Leroy Ladrie and Wolfgang Behringer include food price peaks as cold summers followed cold and wet springs, with increasing examples of “climate wars”, such as Louis X’s Flanders campaign where the climate chilling was a sure factor in play.I fear that we’re headed into such a period of great cooling and repetitive catastrophic flooding right now.This while our leaders prattle on about global warming, leaving us almost totally unprepared.Andrew McKillop is former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission, and co-author of ‘The Doomsday Machine’, Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.Epic and massive flooding in Europe during the Little Ice Age | PSI IntlMore support for rain from cold drought from hot weatherNew research this year of PRIMEVAL CENTRAL EUROPE finds evidence of “Favourable climatic conditions (i.e. warm and dry summers) probably led to an increase in agriculture yields, the expansion of farming activities and resulting forest openings. Whereas unfavourable climatic conditions (i.e cold and wet summers) likely caused crop failure.Path through European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Forest in Autumn, Spessart, Bavaria, GermanyRESEARCH ARTICLECauses and mechanisms of synchronous succession trajectories in primeval Central European mixed Fagus sylvatica forestsFabian ReyErika GobetChristoph SchwörerOthmar WeyAlbert HafnerWilly TinnerFirst published: 16 December 2018Rey et al., 2019ABSTRACT SYNTHESIS“Our results imply that mixed Fagus sylvatica forests [SEE DEFINITION BELOW] with Abies alba and Quercus may re‐expand rapidly in these areas, if climate conditions will remain within the range of the mid‐Holocene climatic variability (with summers c. +1–2°C warmer than today). … [T]he rise and fall of early farming societies was likely dependent on climate. Favourable climatic conditions (i.e. warm and dry summers) probably led to an increase in agricultural yields, the expansion of farming activities and resulting forest openings, whereas unfavourable climatic conditions (i.e. cold and wet summers) likely caused crop failures, abandonment of agricultural areas and forest succession. A better understanding of the environmental and societal factors controlling coeveal land-use dynamics as shown in this study would require new climate proxy data (e.g. temperature reconstruction from well dated and complete Holocene tree ring series). On the basis of our results and considering the ongoing spread of temperate forests in lowland Central Europe, we conclude that the existing beech forest ecosystems are resilient to anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate.”European beech (Fagus sylvatica) is a large deciduous tree, widely distributed in Central and Western Europe. With around 250 known uses for its wood, beech is one of the most important and diversely used trees in Europe. The wood is highly appreciated for use in furniture, flooring, staircases and musical instruments, as well as for plywood, veneering and pulp. Due to its high energetic potential, beech is also coppiced for firewood and charcoal. The tree further provides nourishment to several birds and animals, especially when fruiting occurs, every 5 to 8 years.The European beech favours a humid atmosphere and well-drained soils which its roots can easily penetrate. On favourable sites, beech is widely distributed as it out-competes other tree species due to its excellent tolerance to shade.However there are science papers that find warming causes a more humid and temperate climate.Regional Environmental Changepp 1–13| Cite asObserved climatic changes in West Virginia and opportunities for agricultureAuthorsAuthors and affiliationsEvan KuttaJason A. HubbartAbstractIncreasing variability in temperature and precipitation patterns is reducing the security of natural resources including food, water, and energy in many locations globally. Changes in climate are particularly relevant to the agricultural sector, given the increasing demand for food, less predictable water supplies, and more expensive energy. Among these challenges, however, are opportunities to improve human health with climate-conscious approaches to field crop production. Such opportunities may be emerging in historically productive areas in the Appalachian region of the United States including West Virginia that are often typified by food deserts. Long-term records of farm count, farm area, and crop yield data for West Virginia’s most valuable crops are presented relative to national averages to better understand emergent challenges and opportunities associated with local climate changes. Observed datasets of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for 18 climate observation sites in West Virginia dating back to at least 1930 were used to assess climatic trends between 1900 and 2016. To account for the regions’ complex physiography, daily data were averaged annually and spatially (all 18 sites). The maximum temperatures were shown to decrease significantly (− 0.78 °C/century; p = 0.001), whereas the minimum temperatures increased significantly (0.44 °C/century; p = 0.017), and precipitation increased (25.4 mm/century). Additionally, intra-annual variance of maximum temperatures decreased (− 0.22 °C/century), minimum temperatures increased significantly (0.39 °C/century; p = 0.041), and precipitation increased (25.4 mm/century). Observed climate trends suggest that local and regional changes in land-atmosphere interactions may result in a wetter and more temperate Appalachian climate characterized by longer growing seasons that may be supportive of a broader range of crops. Results suggest that strategically expanding local agriculture to adapt to changing climate could simultaneously improve human health and socioeconomic status in West Virginia, the broader Appalachian region, and other similar physiographic locations globally.Busted Hockey Sticks: 35 Non-Global Warming Papers Have Been Published In 2019The Midwest floods are going to get much, much worseAn “unprecedented” flood season lies ahead this spring, according to NOAA.By Umair Irfan Updated Mar 23, 2019, 1:41pm EDTSHAREHomes are surrounded by floodwater on March 20, in Hamburg, Iowa, following a massive storm. NOAA forecast this week that flooding in the central US is going to get worse through May. Scott Olson/Getty ImagesA massive deluge of rain and melting snow from a “bomb cyclone” and other recent storms is inundating several Midwestern states including Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Nebraska.The flooding has killed at least three people and caused at least $3 billion in damages so far. Rising water levels have breached levees along the Missouri River and forced several towns to evacuate. In southern Minnesota, flood impacts are expected increase substantially for the next three days, according to MPR News. In Nebraska alone, the flooding has already caused more than $1 billion in damages, with more than 2,000 homes and 340 businesses lost.But on Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s spring outlook reported that the situation for the central US is soon going to get much, much worse.“The extensive flooding we’ve seen in the past two weeks will continue through May and become more dire and may be exacerbated in the coming weeks as the water flows downstream,” said Ed Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, in a statement. “This is shaping up to be a potentially unprecedented flood season, with more than 200 million people at risk for flooding in their communities.”Historic floods are in store for much of the United States through May, according to NOAA. NOAAWaterways including the Mississippi River and the Red River of the North are already soaked with precipitation levels that are 200 percent above normal. Alongside rapid snowmelt, heavy spring rains and ice jams have led to a massive, destructive rise in water levels.“It is possible that many parts of the Mississippi River will remain above flood stage ... into the first part of the summer in the slow-moving natural disaster,” AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski told USA Today.More frequent and severe flooding resulting from massive rainfall is one of the more devastating consequences of climate change. As average temperatures rise, air warms and holds on to more moisture, roughly 7 percent more water for every degree Celsius increase. We’ve already seen the amount of rain dished out from major storms increase over the past century.The past five years were also the hottest on record. And as an El Niño weather pattern takes hold, forecasters think that 2019 could become the hottest year ever. So keep an umbrella close by. [This claim is false as anyone living in the US knows it has been much colder these past 5 years and longer.The Midwest floods are going to get much, much worseWRONG Data shows the US has experienced a sharp decline in temperatures during the past five years and more.Arctic blast in 2019 coldest winter in decades.Omaha breaks 1899 record for low temperature Wednesday; snow back in the forecastBy Jay Withrow and Nancy Gaarder / World-Herald staff writers Apr 4, 2018 1Unusually cold air massing over portions of the U.S. and Canada sent temperatures plunging Wednesday morning, scattering fresh ink across the record books.And more records are possible this weekend.Omaha’s low dropped to 13 Wednesday morning, a full 5 degrees lower than the previous record for the date, set in 1899.The Midwest US has recorded sixty-five March temperature readings above 90 degrees, all of which occurred more than 30 years ago, and sixty-three of which occurred more than 90 years ago. In 1907, 1910 and 1929, the Midwest experienced March temperatures above 95 degrees.6:34 AM - 15 Mar 2019To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is HereAround 1250 A.D., historical records show, ice packs began showing up farther south in the North Atlantic. Glaciers also began expanding on Greenland, soon to threaten Norse settlements on the island. From 1275 to 1300 A.D., glaciers began expanding more broadly, according to radiocarbon dating of plants killed by the glacier growth. The period known today as the Little Ice Age was just starting to poke through.Summers began cooling in Northern Europe after 1300 A.D., negatively impacting growing seasons, as reflected in the Great Famine of 1315 to 1317. Expanding glaciers and ice cover spreading across Greenland began driving the Norse settlers out. The last, surviving, written records of the Norse Greenland settlements, which had persisted for centuries, concern a marriage in 1408 A.D. in the church of Hvalsey, today the best preserved Norse ruin.Colder winters began regularly freezing rivers and canals in Great Britain, the Netherlands and Northern France, with both the Thames in London and the Seine in Paris frozen solid annually. The first River Thames Frost Fair was held in 1607. In 1607-1608, early European settlers in North America reported ice persisting on Lake Superior until June. In January, 1658, a Swedish army marched across the ice to invade Copenhagen. By the end of the 17th century, famines had spread from northern France, across Norway and Sweden, to Finland and Estonia.Reflecting its global scope, evidence of the Little Ice Age appears in the Southern Hemisphere as well. Sediment cores from Lake Malawi in southern Africa show colder weather from 1570 to 1820. A 3,000 year temperature reconstruction based on varying rates of stalagmite growth in a cave in South Africa also indicates a colder period from 1500 to 1800. A 1997 study comparing West Antarctic ice cores with the results of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) indicate a global Little Ice Age affecting the two ice sheets in tandem.The Siple Dome, an ice dome roughly 100 km long and 100 km wide, about 100 km east of the Siple Coast of Antartica, also reflects effects of the Little Ice Age synchronously with the GISP2 record, as do sediment cores from the Bransfield Basin of the Antarctic Peninsula. Oxygen/isotope analysis from the Pacific Islands indicates a 1.5 degree Celsius temperature decline between 1270 and 1475 A.D.The Franz Josef glacier on the west side of the Southern Alps of New Zealand advanced sharply during the period of the Little Ice Age, actually invading a rain forest at its maximum extent in the early 1700s. The Mueller glacier on the east side of New Zealand’s Southern Alps expanded to its maximum extent at roughly the same time.Ice cores from the Andeas mountains in South America show a colder period from 1600 to 1800. Tree ring data from Patagonia in South America show cold periods from 1270 to 1380 and from 1520 to 1670. Spanish explorers noted the expansion of the San Rafael Glacier in Chile from 1675 to 1766, which continued into the 19th century.The height of the Little Ice Age is generally dated as 1650 to 1850 A.D. The American Revolutionary Army under General George Washington shivered at Valley Forge in the winter of 1777-78, and New York harbor was frozen in the winter of 1780. Historic snowstorms struck Lisbon, Portugal in 1665, 1744 and 1886. Glaciers in Glacier National Park in Montana advanced until the late 18th or early 19th centuries. The last River Thames Frost Fair was held in 1814. The Little Ice Age phased out during the middle to late 19th century.The Little Ice Age, following the historically warm temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from about AD 950 to 1250, has been attributed to natural cycles in solar activity, particularly sunspots. A period of sharply lower sunspot activity known as the Wolf Minimum began in 1280 and persisted for 70 years until 1350. That was followed by a period of even lower sunspot activity that lasted 90 years from 1460 to 1550 known as the Sporer Minimum. During the period 1645 to 1715, the low point of the Little Ice Age, the number of sunspots declined to zero for the entire time. This is known as the Maunder Minimum, named after English astronomer Walter Maunder. That was followed by the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, another period of well below normal sunspot activity.The increase in global temperatures since the late 19th century just reflects the end of the Little Ice Age. The global temperature trends since then have followed not rising CO2 trends but the ocean temperature cycles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Every 20 to 30 years, the much colder water near the bottom of the oceans cycles up to the top, where it has a slight cooling effect on global temperatures until the sun warms that water. That warmed water then contributes to slightly warmer global temperatures, until the next churning cycle.Those ocean temperature cycles, and the continued recovery from the Little Ice Age, are primarily why global temperatures rose from 1915 until 1945, when CO2 emissions were much lower than in recent years. The change to a cold ocean temperature cycle, primarily the PDO, is the main reason that global temperatures declined from 1945 until the late 1970s, despite the soaring CO2 emissions during that time from the postwar industrialization spreading across the globe.The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, which is the primary reason that global temperatures warmed during this period. But that warming ended 15 years ago, and global temperatures have stopped increasing since then, if not actually cooled, even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this period. As The Economist magazine reported in March, “The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750.” Yet, still no warming during that time. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of global temperature changes.At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has developed over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles, with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years.The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11 year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has collapsed. NASA’s Science News report for January 8, 2013 states,“Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion.”That is even more significant because NASA’s climate science has been controlled for years by global warming hysteric James Hansen, who recently announced his retirement.But this same concern is increasingly being echoed worldwide. The Voice of Russia reported on April 22, 2013,“Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless.”That report quoted Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory saying, “Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.” In other words, another Little Ice Age.http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/#70576bb369bbhttp://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/13756/20150328/climate-change-not-to-blame-for-extreme-winters.htmArctic Outbreak Was One of the Coldest on Record For Late December Into Early January (RECAP)Jan 7 2018 02:30 AM ESTNational and Local Weather Radar, Daily Forecast, Hurricane and information from The Weather Channel and weather.comNews > State-RegionLong arctic blast again breaks recordsChris Fidler, left, of Halifax, and Ben Reigert, of Reading, walk out onto the ice at Sweet Arrow Lake, to fish on Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018, in Pine Grove, Pa. Freezing temperatures since December 26 have made for ideal ice fishing conditions. (David McKeown/Republican-Herald via AP) DAVID MCKEOWNGusty wind picks up snow accumulated on the ground as Jesse Sherwood, of Jersey City, N.J., jogs at Liberty State Park, Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018, in Jersey City. About 100 million people faced a new challenge after the whopping East Coast snowstorm: a gusty deep freeze, topped Saturday by a wind chill close to minus 100 on New Hampshire's Mount Washington that vied for world's coldest place. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) Julio CortezBy STEVE LEBLANCAssociated PressSunday, January 07, 2018Like0BOSTON — The blast of arctic air that engulfed portions of the East Coast broke cold temperature records from Maine to West Virginia and stunned sea turtles in Florida — although a warm-up is coming Monday.Burlington, Vermont, and Portland, Maine set records, with Burlington falling to minus 20, beating a 1923 record by a degree, and Portland recording minus 11, also a degree below a 1941 record.The National Weather Service said Worcester, Massachusetts, which fell to minus 9, and Providence, Rhode Island, which dropped to minus 3, also set record lows, as did Hartford, Connecticut, where the temperature dropped to minus 9, smashing a 1912 record. Northampton’s low of minus 11 was also a record.Boston tied a low-temperature record set more than a century ago in 1896 of minus 2.Record-low temperatures were also set in parts of West Virginia.GLOBAL TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO PRE-EL NINO LEVELSDate: 03/02/18Michael Bastasch, The Daily CallerThe onset of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has caused temperatures drop to levels not seen in six years, according to satellite temperature data.“Note that La Niña cooling in the tropics has finally penetrated the troposphere, with a -0.12 deg. C departure from average,” wrote atmospheric scientists John Christy and Roy Spencer, who compile satellite data at the University of Alabama, Huntsville.Satellite data, which measures Earth’s bulk atmosphere, show temperature anomalies dropped from 0.41 degrees Celsius in December to 0.26 degrees in January. The temperature drop was brought about by a La Niña cooling event in the tropics.La Niña is in full swing in 2018, plunging temperatures in the tropics to -0.12 degrees Celsius in January, down from 0.26 degrees the previous month. It’s the third-largest tropical temperature drop on record.“The last time the tropics were cooler than this was June, 2012 (-0.15 deg. C),” the scientists wrote.“Out of the 470 month satellite record, the 0.38 deg. C one-month drop in January tropical temperatures was tied for the 3rd largest, beaten only by October 1991 (0.51 deg. C drop) and August, 2014 (0.41 deg. C drop),” they wrote.La Niña settled in late 2017, with cooler waters reaching from South America, across to eastern Pacific islands. It’s the opposite of El Niño warming events.“The last time the Southern Hemisphere was this cool (+0.06 deg. C) was July, 2015 (+0.04 deg. C),” Christy and Spencer wrote.“The linear temperature trend of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies from January 1979 through January 2018 remains at +0.13 C/decade,” they wrote.https://www.thegwpf.com/global-temperatures-drop-back-to-pre-el-nino-levels-2/200 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Published Since 2017 Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented, Global-Scale WarmingArctic Sea Ice Increasing For Eleven YearsPosted on 14 Oct 2017 by Iowa Climate Science EducationLeave a CommentDay 285 Arctic sea ice extent has been increasing since the start of MASIE records in 2006. This year is fifth highest since 2006.Meanwhile, criminals in the press and scientific community continue to report the exact opposite of what the data shows.Half a meter of fresh snow in Sierra Nevada, Granada, South Spain today, April 11! 2100 m. Report: Artur Zagrodzki ZagrodzkaCONCLUSIONThe bottom line again is our inability to understand fully the climate that is driven by many factors especially local factors. This reality should reduce the arrogance and certainty displayed by the alarmist champions like Al Gore James Hansen and Michael Mann. It rebuts anyone who argues the climate is settled and needs no further study. Dr. William Happer is right a new group of leading climate scientists is needed to review the shoddy science of the UNIPCC.Our doubt about climate drivers is essential to keep searching for what is valid and not fool ourselves by chaotic randomness such as the prediction of the end of snow of the United Nations alarmists.