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There are number of factors which led to TDP downfall in Andhra Pradesh:FarmersBefore coming to elections, TDP told farmers not to pay anything to the banks and promised full loan waiver if they come to power which is about Rs. 87,000 croresFinally, after they come to power, they constituted a committee and finally declared that they will clear only Rs. 24,000 crore worth of loans and that too in 5 phases. Farmers, who were regular in repayment of loans didn’t pay anything to banks because they were hoping for a waiver.TDP government issued some bonds, tried in various ways to convince the banks to keep the loans on hold but banks simply followed their procedure and said they have to follow RBI norms. They simply declared farmers as defaulters. They added interest, penalties, penalties on interest etc.Finally, TDP has cleared Rs. 15,000 crore worth of loans in the last 5 years and that too in 3 phases.Finally, if you calculate interest part for Rs. 87,000 crores for 5 years, let us consider 4% interest rate per annum (note that 4% is subsidized interest rate not normal interest rate). Total comes to around Rs. 3,500 crores PER YEAR. Calculate it for 5 years - This would come to around Rs. 15,000 crores.This is the minimum interest rate which I calculated BUT if you consider normal interest rate, calculation would come down to Rs. 30,000 crores.In other words, even as per TDP claims, they just waived off interest part (if loans are borrowed at 4% interest rate). If the interest rate is more than that, total loan waived off does not even cover the interest part.Now comes the worst part, many farmers become defaulters in banks. Hence, they are no longer eligible to borrow any loans. Many of them borrowed loans using gold and mortgaged their lands as collateral.Since they have defaulted, farmers started receiving notices from banks. Because of this, they no longer have any security to borrow further loans. Their security got stuck in banks. If they want any additional funds, they have to look for private lenders who charge very high interest rates and harass farmers if they don’t pay. This pushed farmers into more debt.Farmers have defaulted, their securities got stuck, they cannot borrow extra loans, banks keep adding interest and penalties etc. its a debt trap.2. DWACRASame as farmers3. YouthCBN promised jobs for youth. Even though this is a promise made in manifesto, we can forgive TDP because unemployment is not an issue limited to just TDP or Andhra.Even Trump, Modi, KCR and many leaders across the world are trying their best to resolve the issue. So, nothing wrong even if CBN or TDP failed in this regard.The issue however comes with the promise of unemployment allowance to the youth. This is another blunder committed by TDP. They promised that If youth do not get jobs, they would get MONTHLY allowance of up to 2000 rupees (depending on education and qualification). This is a such a big blunder committed by TDP in desperation to come to power.This made youth very angry. If you look at Telangana state elections or Indian general elections, both KCR and Modi came back with thumping majority. Even KCR and Modi promised lot of jobs for youth in 2014. However, problem came with TDP because they neither gave jobs nor fulfilled the promise of allowance completely. TDP did give some allowance to some youth just 1 year before the election but again this was seen more as a stunt than fulfillment of election promise and most youth didn’t get the allowance as promised.4. AmaravatiTDP made tall claims on Amaravati development. In reality what happened was lot of people purchased or invested heavily into Amaravati lands and made real estate. Many farmers lost their lands (many of them were made to forcefully handover their lands). People who purchased lands for dirt cheap prices from poor farmers had sold these lands for crores of rupees which angered local farmers who felt cheated.In Amaravati region, lot of people work in the farms. Many land owners either lease their land or allow others to farm on their land temporarily in exchange for money. As farm land owners lost their land, all these people lost employment and suddenly, they had to work for coolies in real estate/constructions under someone. Also, because of the hype created, all prices in and around Amaravati increased a lot. For example, if a driver has to take a room for rent, the rent were increased by 25 to 50% over last 5 years due to hype while their salaries remained same. Cost of living has drastically increased as well. because of this, many people who live with small means suffered a lot.The same thing happened in Hyderabad in early 2000s as well. People were completely repelled by Hyderabad development especially farmers, poor people and common men. This is the reason why TDP has been losing elections from 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2018 (and TDP decided not to contest Loksabha elections in 2019! in Telangana region) even though Chandrababu Naidu claimed so many times that he developed Hyderabad and Hyderabad was his brain child. In 2014, TDP won little better because of Andhra-settler sentiment but not because of development.People who got benefited from Amaravati Development were mostly real estate developers, politicians and big farmers who are already wealthy enough. On the contrary, small farmers & common men suffered so much.To add salt to the wounds, people from Rayalaseema and Uttarandhra felt neglected and felt that Chandrababu is doing same mistake what he did earlier i.e. focus on centralized development only in one particular region.In other words, Amaravati had created negative impact (This is clearly visible in election results of Krishna and Guntur districts where Amaravati region lies. Even Nara Lokesh lost the election against Alla Ramakrishna Reddy).To make matters even worse, TDP kept on campaigning saying that they are the masterminds behind development of Amaravati. Even their ads related to Amaravati development felt extremely offensive to people. (Video below)This ad still shows the illusion under which TDP is living - i.e. Hyderabad or Amaravati would bring votes. The reality is exact opposite. TDP lost mainly because of Hyderabad and Amaravati.5. PattiseemaThis is another blunder by TDP and CBN.Krishna delta came into existence during Bristish time in 1880s. Krishna delta should originally get 140–150 tmc of water as per rules. Total Krishna Delta related lands are approximately about 13 lakh acres and spread across Krishna, Guntur, West Godavari and Prakasam Districts.Everything was working well until Almatti dam was built and Krishna Delta become drier. Until that point of time, krishna delta land produced 2–3 crops per year for farmers and because of this move, krishna delta lands got reduced to only 1 crop per year.You know an amazing fact?? When Almatti dam was built, Chandrababu was the convener of National Front when Dev Gowda was PM. That’s right. He is the reason why Krishna Delta farmers suffered in Andhra.Now, TDP claimed pattiseema made Krishna Delta great. How Ironic! Another interesting fact is that the canals used by Pattiseema project were constructed during YSR time it self.Now, come a very very interesting question, if Pattiseema project helped krishna delta farmers, why was TDP defeated very badly in all regions related to pattiseema project ??Most areas like Avanigadda, Nagaiahlanka which are tail-end areas couldn’t get water even for 1 crop properly.In reality, all the farmers of west godavari and krishna district suffered a lot due to PATTISEEMA which is why YSRCP (despite saying they won’t give kapu reservation) clean sweep there. They also clean sweep Krishna district.Why did TDP take such catastrophic decision??What Chandrababu Naidu thought was completing Pattiseema would actually allow him to divert Krishna water from Srisailam (originally meant for prakasam barrage) to Rayalaseema and Pattiseema can be divert water from godavari river and will be given to Krishna Delta.During YSR time, he envisioned it bit differently. He also wanted to divert Krishna Water to Rayalaseema. However, he felt that only Polavaram project could sufficiently give water to Krishna Delta. This is where CBN committed big blunder. Instead of waiting for Polavaram, he constructed pattiseema project which is temporary in nature (if polavaram is there) and this project has totally failed CBN’s vision. This is the reason why YSR envisioned Polavaram (not Pattiseema) even though he completed left canal (which was used for pattiseema project).Pattiseema also has one more problem. Krishna delta only has rights over krishna water but not godavari water. So, this can create lot of disputes with other states.This is the reason why KCR started to divert water from Sri sailam.7. Kia MotorsTDP’s claim: It is the largest FDI in India. It will create 75,000 jobs for Indians/Andhra people (as per agreement signed between Andhra Government and Kia Motors).Reality: Only 550–700 jobs were created. Many employees of Kia Motors are tamilians. Koreans have opened many restaurants and they are heavily discriminating Indians. Indians are not even allowed to enter into those restaurants. Andhra government also spent so many crores to bring water supply for KIA motors.Here also, TDP leaders brought lands very cheaply from farmers and sold them off at high prices. They became very richFarmers who gave hundreds of acres worth of lands are now big victims and felt cheated.8. Handri NivaTDP’s Claims: Handri Niva is completed. Water will now come to Anatapuram and farmers will be thrilledReality: Anantapuram is officially declared as drought area by Andhra Pradesh Government. Enough Said.9. CBN - I am the senior most politician in India. I have 40 years experience (claimed it many times during last 5 years)Reality: CBN become become CM in 1995.Naveen Patnaik is CM for 17 years. Karunanidhi was CM five times, elected as MLA 13 times and never lost an election in his 61 years career!Mulayam Singh, Kalyan Singh, Farooq Abdulla, Anthony, Sarath Pawar become CM much before Chandrababu Naidu become CM.Coming to general seniority. Even within TDP party, Buchaiah Chowdary & Ashok Gajapati Raju are senior to Chandrababu Naidu.CBN become MLA in 1978. Even if you consider within Andhra Pradesh region. Even KE Krishna Murthy and Ashok Gajapatiraju from his own party also become MLAs in 1978.10. Cements Roads in villages:TDP’s claim: We have done everythingReality: These are funds from Central Government11. Housing Scheme:TDP’s claim: we gave lot of houses for poorReality: There gave houses in three categories:category 1 - 300 sq ft - Rs. 5.62 lakhscategory 2 - 365 sq ft - 6.74 lakhscategory 3 - 430 sq ft - 7.71 lakhsState Government would spend Rs. 1.5 lakhs and Central Government would spend Rs. 1.5 lakhs = total Rs. 3 lakh subsidy will be given.AP government is charging > Rs. 2,000 per sq ft. while Telangana Govt. is charging only half of it.If we look at actual cost in Telangana (after subsidy), the poor would literally get houses with little or no debt.If we look at actual cost in Andhra: (after subsidy)category 1 - 300 sq ft -> 5.62 - 3 = 2.62 lakhscategory 2 - 365 sq ft -> 6.74 - 3 = 3.74 lakhscategory 3 - 430 sq ft -> 7.71 - 3 = 4.71 lakhsThe poor person has to take loan and pay EMI for 10-20 years in order to own a house pushing them into debt.12. Kapus Reservation and BC VotesThis is one more blunder by TDP.During 2014 election campaign, Naidu has promised reservations for Kapu community. However, by the time he took his oath, a supreme court judgement has come which capped reservations at 50%.As soon as TDP came to power, what it should have done is it should have asked people to forgive them and that reservation is not possible due to Hon’ble Supreme Court Judgement. That would have cool down the issue in 2014 itself and by the time 2019 came, people would have forgiven TDP.Instead, they done the opposite. They kept on postponing the issue. They tried to suppressed kapu leaders like mudragada padmanabham. They tried to skip the issue instead of giving some clarity.Finally after 3 years, they passed a resolution in AP Assembly and said it requires central government approval. Once again issue got into heat. On the contrary, Jagan Mohan Reddy said Kapus reservations are not possible. On that day I remember, YCP leaders didn’t even come to TV debates as they couldn’t face media or public.Finally, Pawan Kalyan decided to contest the elections. This actually shifted Kapus votes to Janasena.Finally TDP said that Kapus would be given ctaegory F status among BC community, all the BC communities got angry because their reservation would get reduced if Kapus get the 5% reservation.Finally, TDP lost faith of both Kapus and BCs13. Anti-incumbencyNaidu thought Janasena would split anti-incumbency vote. However it didn’t happen because of two reasons:Anti-government votes would come to janasena only if people believe that janasena would come to power. 99% of Andhra people knew that Janasena would come as 3rd party or it would become a king maker. Andhra people saw what happened in Karnataka. They learnt a lesson. So, they decided not to vote for Janasena and voted for YCP so that Jagan will come with full majority stable government.YCP was extremely successful in making people believe that Janasena and TDP has a secret understanding. He criticized YSRCP more than TDP. He criticized about Jagan not attending assembly but never questioned TDP about 23 MLAs poached from YSRCP. TDP stopped criticizing Pawan Kalyan all of a sudden. In some places, cadre of Janasena and TDP colluded (even videos of it surfaced online). In last 5 years, he comes and makes public appearance and disappears for months together. Timing of his appearance matches whenever TDP is in crisis most of the times. He always questioned about Jagan’s CBI cases but never questioned about Sujana Chowdary’s cases. Jagan’s cases are worth only Rs. 1500 crore (as per JD Laxmi Narayana himself) while Sujana Chowdary’s cases are worth Rs. 6000 crores.Pawan Kalyan also criticized KCR and Telangana leaders around the same time when Chandrababu Naidu was dead against TRS and KCR. This also back fired because Andhra-Telangana sentiment only works in Telangana because telangana has seen andhra leaders rule but andhra region never saw telangana leaders rule (as rightly said by KTR in an interview). This also felt as if TDP-Janasena got into some secret pact.This once again became advantage to YCP14. Lokesh FactorYCP did something else as well. They heavily marketed that Nara Lokesh will be made as AP CM if TDP wins this time. They projected that as Chandrababu Naidu is nearing the age of 70, he will be handing over his reigns to his son.15. Janmabhoomi CommittesI think this issue can be read in every newspaper and news channel. Very popular one.16. Women VotesDWCRA situation same as farmers. Apart from this, TDP promised belt shops and alcohol ban in 2014 manifesto. However, they didn’t implement the promise. However, Jagan promised it. He also campaigned across the state in padayatra reminding village women of DWCRA loans and achohol ban.Also, ASHA workers were unhappy. Anganwadi workers were also unhappy.17. Old age pensionsOnce again Janmabhoomi Committees ruined this.18. EmployeesChandrababu took the decision of suddenly shifting from Hyderabad to Amaravati overnight. This actually created hardship for lot of government employee couples who had different jobs. They constantly had to travel between Amaravati and Hyderabad for various reasons.Government Employees salaries couldn’t be paid just before elections. Almost 3 months of their salaries got into pending. Chandrababu had utilized all funds for Annadata Sukhibhava and Pasupu Kumkuma schemes.19. Special Status/U-turnsChandrababu Naidu has taken so many U-turns on this. He should have stuck with BJP, he should have maintained friendly relations with KCR. He should have stuck to special package.Not only on Special status, he took U turns on BJP. One time he said Modi is best PM and other time he said Modi should not get elected again.Poaching 23 MLAs from YCP on hand and protesting that TRS took 20 MLAs from TDP on other hand.20. PolavaramLot of failed deadlines. First TDP promised giving water by 2018, then 2019 and finally they changed their stand saying that polavaram will be completed only if TDP comes to power.21. Anti-BJP and Pro-Congress Stand.Chandrababu Naidu spent majority of his 2014 election campaign to curse Congress party for bifurcating the state. This made lot of sense even politically because Congress party was extremely strong in Andhra at that time. Criticizing congress can shift the vote bank to TDP.However, taking anti-BJP stance would never work because BJP hasrdly has vote bank in Andhra. Even hardcore BJP voters many times vote for regional parties in assembly elections because they know BJP wouldn’t come to power (like how it happened in Telangana. BJP won 1 seat in assembly elections but got 4 MP seats).In other words, anti-BJP stance would work in getting MP seats but not assembly seats. In 2014 BJP won some seats because TDP and BJP were in alliance with each other. BJP supporters voted for BJP in 2014 because TDP is part of NDA. When BJP contests alone, even hardcore BJP supporters wouldn’t vote because they feel their vote would better be utilized for regional parties. (Same as Janasena anti-incumbency logic)On the other hand, biggest blunder committed by Naidu is taking pro-congress stand. This is something even hardcore TDP supporters didn’t like at all. Because Naidu spent 35+ years criticizing every possible congress leader and him suddenly taking pro-congress felt purely like political move. Even though leaders took time to settle, the party cadre at booth levels couldn’t work together because they had long bitter rivalries. This damaged both congress and TDP.One more logic which nobody understood was that TDP took pro-congress stand but they say they are not part of UPA. They contest elections together in Telangana but again they contest separately in Andhra.22. Totally Negative PRNaidu giving negative statements on SC/STs.His MLAs beating MRO/Government officers/common men and Naidu totally being silent about it as if nothing happened.Over publicity about everything.Another big factor is that TDP has selected really really bad spokespersons. Most of the spokespersons come to debates or media without having proper knowledge. To make it even worse, Naidu taking U-turns made the situation of spokespersons even worse because they completely failed to defend TDP in many situations.23. CorruptionSand Mining, Janmabhoomi Committees, Local leaders threatening and demanding commissions etc.Thanks for reading until this pointIn ConclusionPeople voted for TDP because they wanted to see the old style ruling of Chandrababu Naidu i.e. before 2004. However, the CBN which people saw after 2014 is totally different one. I am sure that Chandrababu Naidu wouldn’t be so blind had he known that TDP would lose the elections so badly.I have nothing against any political party. Being a political observer, I request someone to please send all these answers to TDP because in recent TDP meeting, Chandrababu Naidu said that he couldn’t understand why he lost elections. At least reading all these answers would open his eyes!No voter has any personal vendetta against any politician. The same people who voted for TDP in 1999 voted for Congress in 2004. Same people who voted for Congress in 2009 voted for TDP and TRS in 2014.I hope TDP would learn from these mistakes and everyone wants to see the old CBN (before 2004).