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That their true cost cannot be accurately forecast, because paper projections don’t account for changes in behavior.Back in 1978 when a capital gains tax cut was proposed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast it would result in a net loss of $1 billion in federal revenue. But the real-world result was 4.5% economic growth and a $2 billion gain in federal revenueHow did the CBO get the math so wrong? Because investor habits changed as a result of the tax cut - since their taxes were lower, they were investing more of their gains. More capital for economic growth equals more growth, and more growth equals higher tax revenues. Or in simple terms, 20% of $1,500 is a bigger number than 28% of $1,000.We saw the same thing happen when Bill Clinton first proposed his tax cuts. Again, the CBO predicted revenue shortfalls. And again, they were wrong and we saw significant increases in tax revenue as a direct result of Clinton’s cuts.The CBO also predicted the Trump tax cuts would lead to massive revenue shortfalls, and yet again they were wrong; 2018 federal tax revenues were the highest ever recorded.In reality, the CBO gets these projections wrong every time.To be fair, whether they’re wrong in a net positive or net negative way will vary, but either way you can be certain that the projections won’t be right. And it’s not that their formulas are “wrong”, it’s just that you can’t account for changes in behavior on paper.This goes the other way too sometimes; you can look at Florida’s Cigarette tax for a great example of that. The state budget office had calculated the “ideal” rate to tax a pack of smokes in order to fund a children’s healthcare program. Their math was perfect, except for one problem: they hadn’t correctly guessed how many people would quit smoking or switch to other types of tobacco that weren’t subject to the tax. When the cigarette tax rolled out, it didn’t produce anywhere near the revenue they were hoping for.So they played with the calculations a little. They looked at pack sales, incomes of smokers, factored in how many people had quit the first time and what income levels those people were, every bit of data they could get their hands on. They calculated the probability that people who made under $X were likely to quit or cut back, people who made more than $Y wouldn’t, and worked it all in. They really did a good job with it. But as soon as they increased the per-pack tax to the new rate they calculated, they quickly realized they were wrong again and even more people quit. For years they kept recalculating and increasing the rate, and they were still wrong every time. The tax never produced the revenue they expected it to.You see, everyone has a personal value threshold. It’s a calculation we all do when we decide whether something we want is worth more to us than having those dollars in the bank or not. And this number is different for everyone. All of the data in the world could never have accurately predicted how much the cigarette tax would bring in, because it wasn’t about what smokers could afford - it was that they had no way to predict what every individual’s “it’s not worth it anymore” threshold was.Likewise, numbers in a spreadsheet won’t ever accurately predict how much money a tax cut will cost or bring in either.When people talk about “deficit-financed tax cuts”, you have to keep in mind that those calculations are done without taking accurate changes in behavior into account. They might guess a little, but people do different things when they have extra money in their pockets. What’s often overlooked is that the economic impact of the things they do isn’t limited to the dollars they’re saving.Remember, we’re not strictly a cash economy. It’s easy to say “Oh, well if you give someone a $300 a month tax cut, even if they spend all of it in the economy, you’ll never get back $300 a month in tax revenue.” I see so-called “economists” say this all the time, and it’s a ridiculous claim because it completely ignores that cash isn’t the number one driver of our economy. Credit is.When someone starts getting an extra $300 a month from a tax cut, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will spend a maximum of $300 more per month in the economy. Suppose that recipient decides that extra $300 means they can now afford a new car? That means a measly $3,600 annual tax cut just resulted in tens of thousands of dollars worth of spending, and a hell of a lot more taxes paid, which never would have happened had it not been for the cut. And now that they have a new car, maybe they’ll take a road trip this summer that they wouldn’t have taken with their old car, and spend a bunch of money while on vacation too. Now their old car will end up with with someone else, and that person might go spend money on a new set of tires or some customization. It goes on and on.Heck, maybe that extra $300 a month means they can afford a bigger house. That means the equity that’s been locked up on two houses will now be taxed - the capital gain on the house they’re selling, and the capital gain the old owner will pay on the house they’re buying. That’s WAY more than $300 a month worth of tax revenue finding its way back to Uncle Sam that year, and it never would have happened without the tax cut.Multiply that by millions of people, and it’s easy to see how tax cuts are capable of bringing in way more federal revenue than they cost. There’s no way any of that can be accurately projected on paper.Anyone who says “deficit-financed tax cut” might as well be saying “I don’t understand economics”. They don’t know what they’re talking about. They literally can’t know what they’re talking about, because they don’t know what the resulting changes in human behavior will be.

The Dhaba opportunity.An associate of mine opened a Dhaba on the outskirts of Pune. He brought some workers from the north. He is passionate about food and himself a good cook with experience of 3 years+ in the business. It is a 1 acre place with plenty of empty space which has wild grass growing so it needs upkeep. There has a seperate area for toilets and 2 cottages for people to sit. Earlier, the space was let out to someone who was serving alcohol and had revenues of about 4 lakhs a month. My friend however, does not want to serve alcohol. There is a lot of space to house the employee within the same premises so he thought that he will not incur additional expenses on housing.ChallengesThere is a problem of monkeys in this area and about 150 monkeys live in the trees nearby. The location is remote but is close to a slum so there are unsocial elements in the society visiting these places to find opportunities to steal. Since, the place does not have water supply, a regular cost of tankers needs to be incorporated in the costing. There was cost of renovation and the owner refused to cooperate or help. He had to visit the municipality to get a different road opening up to the highway so that buses and other vehicles from both sides of the road can enter his premises. He was successful in getting this done at no cost but it cost him time.Customer AcquisitionHe tried his best to market this place by visiting travels companies in Pune and meeting bus drivers and asking them to halt their vehicles at his Dhaka. They refused saying that the location was not suitable. Someone advised him that the decision makers sit in Bangalore so he needs to visit Bangalore but he could afford to leave his business unattended. His father helped him by manning the restaurant but he was not aware of the restaurant business.To market the place, boards were put on the road to give directions to people to find the place but he never realized that the board he put on the left side of the road was not effective, people saw his board only when it was too late. Additionally, he has little idea about how to advertise. There was too much written word and no pictures. No one gets so much time read boards on the highway, they hardly get any time.The Dhaba owner had to close down his place since he refused to take advice from anyone. He is now very bitter from his experiences and refused to pay any broker to help him find a suitable place. The problem is that when you don’t know what you don’t know, you continue to be ignorant. This is why a mentor is a critical part of the solution. Here are some of his mistakes.The language of business is Mathematics. He failed to calculate the cost of doing the business and marketing of the business.The food business requires study of the kind of clientele who might be visiting the area and their behaviors. Exploiting the floating population helps in covering the costs in a Dhaba business. My friend had a wrong impression that he should focus on the city dwellers and loyal customers who would come for his high quality food. He failed to notice that the passing by truck drivers and local public cared less about high quality but wanted alcohol and cheap food. You need to adjust yourself to the demands of the customers, customers won’t adjust to yours.He hired his staff as a group and they left him in a group one fine day after they received their salaries. Although, he did all he could to please them.He had no budget for marketing and had no reserves to take care of the time required until his business would sustain on its own cash-flow.InvestmentsIt is with the creativity of an entrepreneur that you can plan a Dhaba. There are many ways to reduce the startup capital costs if you are open and willing. For an open mind, nothing is impossible.If you need guidance and help for a small hourly fee, do not hesitate to contact me on social medium.Is it easy to start a restaurant business in Delhi?

There are a lot of time management tips and “hacks” floating around on the internet, so it can sometimes be difficult to find what works best for you.I’ve spent much of my career working and managing a team remotely, for which productivity and time management are absolutely essential. Over the years I’ve found these tricks to be some of the best ways to make the most of my time:Find out where you’re spending your time.Most of us are concerned with fitting our tasks into given time slots, but we rarely stop to calculate exactly how long it takes us to get them done.Start tracking your current productivity with timestamps, either on paper or electronically. You’ll be surprised how long it actually takes to answer emails or review your budget.Check to see which tasks are taking up the bulk of your time.Brainstorm ways to cut down on time spent doing less important things.Think about how much of that time is spent working, and how much of it is spent with distractions.Set limits for yourself.Once you know where you’re spending your time, you can begin to crack down on your deadlines.Give yourself a set amount of time to finish each task. If you fail to finish on-time, work on the next task to refresh your mind before going back to the first one.Over time, you’ll likely find that repetitive tasks are eating up less and less of your day. As these things take less time, be sure to adjust your deadlines as you make progress.Time limits and deadlines can be great motivators, as they push you to compete with yourself.Don’t forget to give yourself a quick break to reset every once in a while.Think of incentives that might motivate you to stick to your time limits.Prioritize.There are a couple of different ways to prioritize your daily tasks.One way is to complete your most important tasks first. Work on the things that you know you must get done before moving on to anything else. This approach is great because it comes with the peace of mind knowing that you’ve already done the heavy-lifting by the end of the day.Another approach, typically used by beginners in the space, is to complete quick and simple tasks first. The benefit of working this way is that you can build confidence and productivity as you complete each subsequent task, which helps set you up for success on more complex tasks.Prioritization can look different on a daily basis.Don’t let focusing on large tasks prevent you from doing daily assignments.Know when to step away from a project. Sometimes the most productive thing to do is avoid wasting your time.Delegate.Along with prioritization comes delegation. This is especially important in the business space.As businesses grow, business owners reach multiple points where they become unable to handle every aspect that they once did themselves. It is important to realize that no one is capable of doing everything by themselves.If you consistently find that there is not enough time in the day for you to get things done, start considering where your time is best spent. Other tasks that don’t require your full involvement should be assigned to your team.If you can’t afford to hire a full-time employee, consider hiring a freelancer online.Oversee your employees’ work and provide feedback when needed, but don’t let it consume your time.Use automated programs to your advantage whenever possible.Planners, notes, and lists are your friends.This last point may seem obvious, but never neglect the power of a planner.Whether you prefer to stay organized through a traditional or a digital platform, the most important part is that you do make an effort to organize your commitments.Set some time aside once a week to look ahead and schedule the next week’s assignments. Things will change, which is fine, but giving yourself an outline to follow will help you stay on track and prevent you from forgetting any of your tasks.The method is not important as long as it works for you.Make things easy on yourself visually by color-coding, bulleting, and providing time stamps.Cross-out and check-off tasks as you complete them to stay motivated and remind yourself of what you’ve accomplished.If you found these tips to be helpful, then I suggest checking out the free online class that I’ll be hosting. I’m incredibly passionate about helping other business owners succeed, so I’ll be giving away some of my best productivity secrets to those who attend.Hope to see you there!