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What are Chinese cities like compared to Western cities?

All photographs and maps are the creation and property of the author, except for Google Earth images, which are the property of GoogleI have to say at the outset that this question is overly broad. There are differences between Chinese cities, and between neighborhoods within Chinese cities. As for “Western” cities, the differences are even greater, since “The West” encompasses a broad array of nations spread across far-flung corners of the planet.Honestly, Chinese cities contain multitudes. What they are like depends on what part of the city you are talking about, when it was built, who lives there, and what the function of the neighborhood is. In some Chinese cities you can find narrow alleys lined with dense, older housing, home to working class people, with bicycles parked outside and laundry hanging out to dry:Nearly all older, working class neighborhoods in Chinese cities are within walking distance of a “wet market” where you can buy fresh produce and freshly butchered meat. These folks have little need for modern supermarkets.“Urban villages” are a common feature in many Chinese cities. Formerly agricultural villages, they urbanized and densified when the city footprint expanded to surround themIn other parts of Chinese cities, you might find ultra-modern architecture, luxury shopping centers, fashionable high-rises, and whimsical public art:A number of Chinese cities were essentially colonized by England, France, Germany, Japan, or Russia during the 19th century. In those cities, the foreign colonizers left their imprint in architecture that still stands today. Today, these “foreign style” streets are often Chinese hipster districts full of bars and coffeeshops.One feature common to every Chinese city is at least one “walking street” which is similar to the “high street” common to most European cities, and is home to major brand name shops.At Chinese New Year, Chinese cities transform themselves much as Western cities do at Christmastime, with colorful decorations everywhere:It’s very common to find traditional elements in Chinese cities, such as temples and gates like this one:It’s not uncommon to find the old and new mixed in the same urban tableau:If you were to travel back to 500 years ago, you’d find that, apart from differences in architectural styles, Chinese cities and “Western” cities (i.e. European cities) were quite similar, in both form and function.In the pre-modern era, the majority of people in both China and Europe lived in rural areas and engaged in agricultural work (usually some form of serfdom). Only a minority of people (around 10%) lived in cities. These were traders, merchants, and the military, religious and political elite. Both European and Chinese cities were typically surrounded by defensive walls, and located along rivers or coastlines. The cities were densely inhabited and compact (like in the image below), small enough to walk from one end to the other in less than a day. Streets were narrow, wide enough for pedestrians and horses. Street networks were organic and maze-like (with some exceptions, like Beijing which followed a grid-like structure for spiritual reasons).Here are some examples of traditional Chinese urban form that still exists today, as seen in Google Earth. The following image is of Nanluoguxiang, a neighborhood made up of Ming Dynasty-era “hutong” (alleys) in central Beijing.The next Google Earth image is Lijiang old town. Although much of the old town was destroyed in an earthquake in 1996 and most of the “old-looking” buildings today are in fact modern reproductions, the historic maze-like urban form has been preserved, much to the delight of the millions of tourists who stroll through its cobblestone lanes every year.Chinese and Western cities began to diverge in the 19th century when twin processes of industrialization and urbanization played out in tandem. With the introduction of railroads, and later automobiles, Western cities rapidly expand behind their pre-modern footprints into newly built suburbs (sometimes known as “streetcar suburbs”). No longer was the city limited in size to the distance one could walk in a day’s time. At the same time, transformations in the political economy of western nations meant more and more people were moving to cities in search of opportunity. At the turn of the 20th century, the progressive political movement played out in cities as the birth of modern urban planning, with the “City Beautiful” movement promoting the public goods of infrastructure, sewers, public parks, and mass transit.All the while, as Western cities were growing in population, area, and prosperity, Chinese cities remained in a state of arrested development. At the turn of the 20th century, China was still governed by the weak Qing Dynasty, and the majority of its people were peasants residing in rural villages. There was some early efforts at urban modernization in China at this time. The governments of Germany, France, England, and Russia managed sections of Chinese cities known “concessions” extracted from the weak Qing government, and in these areas they introduced modern architecture, gridiron street networks, sewers, and streetcars. But then China was plunged into a half century of chaos, with the Xinhai Revolution, the Warlord era, World War II, and the Communist-National Civil War.After the Communist Victory in 1949, Mao Zedong presided over three decades of national policy that emphasized rural over urban development. Paranoid that China’s coastal cities were vulnerable to attack by the Americans, Mao relocated thousands of factories to inland rural areas. Urban populations actually declined during this time, as middle class urban youth (including a young Xi Jinping) were “sent down” to the countryside to learn the virtues of a rural life.What construction did take place in Chinese cities during the rule of Mao Zedong can generally be divided into two categories: cheap, concrete, Soviet-style communal housing barracks, and monumental architecture designed to celebrate the Communist Party or grandiose public spaces such as Tiananmen Square which could host mass political rallies.It’s fair to say that in 1976, at the time of Mao’s death, the contrast between Chinese cities and their Western counterparts was the starkest in history. At this point, Western cities had undergone the upheaval of modernism, reached majority urbanization, and were already entering with a new era of consumer industry-led post-modernism, deindustrialization, demographic change, white flight, and suburbanization and exurbanziation. A visitor to a Chinese city at this same point in time, on the other hand, would have found that little had changed in 100 years. That same visitor would have founds streets devoid of cars, and filled instead with bicycles. All of that would change rapidly at the helm of China’s new, market-led leadership under Deng Xiaoping.Housing is one area where Chinese cities diverge significantly from Western cities. The vast majority of housing in Chinese cities is in the form of apartment buildings. In this, the divergence between Chinese cities and American cities is more acute than that between Chinese cities and European cities. Single-family homes (literally, “mansions” in Chinese) are rare and extremely rare. Moreover, most Chinese cities mandate that single-family homes are only allowed in the distant suburbs far outside the city center.Apartment housing in China can be divided into two main types: socialist era danwei apartments and market era apartment high-rises. Socialist era housing dates from the 1950s - 1980s. Residents did not pay any rents. Apartments were provided for free by one’s work unit. That said, conditions were poor and a large family (remember, this is before the one child policy was instituted) could expect to share cramped living space. Apartment buildings were functionalist and minimalist, with unfinished concrete facades, and a uniform walkup height of seven stories. Most of these apartments lacked kitchen and bathroom facilities, residents relied on shared common facilities instead. The following Google Earth image shows neighborhoods of Maoist era danwei housing in Beijing.When Deng put China’s economy on the path to “reform and opening” in the early 1980s, he also ushered in the fastest and largest-scale urbanization movement the world has ever seen. China would accomplish in the next 30 or so years what it took Western cities more than a century to accomplish. One of the biggest policy changes in the reform and opening era was the privatization of the danwei housing. Starting in the 1990s, housing that was previously maintained and furnished under the state-run economy was transferred to residents as commodity housing. This act led to what is probably the largest wealth transfer in Chinese history. Overnight, China minted millions of urban property holders. Over the next decade or three, depending on the neighborhood, some of these urban housing units would gain 1000% to 10000% of their original value on the private housing market. In the Maoist era, the economic divide between urban and rural Chinese was minimal. But after this act, a class of urban property-owning elites was created, and China’s wealth gap has grown ever since. Those who were lucky enough to live in government-subsidized housing units on the cusp of privatization gained capital which they then used to invest in more housing in the new economy.Today many neighborhoods in the older urban cores of Chinese cities still contain a large stock of socialist era danwei apartment buildings. However, the owners of these apartments rarely live there themselves. The owners use their profits to buy newer commodity apartments in more suburban neighborhoods of cities, and rent out the older apartments to urban migrants or to parents looking for “school district apartments.” Most have been retrofitted so they now contain basic bathrooms and kitchens. The following image shows a neighborhood of socialist era danwei apartment buildings in Kunming with solar hot water heaters on the roofs.Sometimes, this older housing is demolished to make room for new market rate developments. However, the cost to developers is high because they must according to law compensate each resident at the market rate determined by the government. So instead, developers usually leave this older inner city housing untouched and turn to greenfield sites in more suburban outlying districts farther away from the city center to develop new market rate housing. The following Google Earth image is of a commodity housing development in a suburban district of Beijing. Note the presence of empty land adjacent to the property development, a common occurrence in China’s urban greenfield development.Property development in China is undertaken by huge corporations with billions of dollars in their portfolios, who have close connections with the government and enjoy preferential policies and low interest loans from state-owned banks. Small and medium scale developers, common in Western cities, are almost non-existent in China. Chinese property developers acquire greenfield sites from local city governments at auction. Usually, these greenfield sites formerly contained farmland and rural villages. The villagers are first evicted by the local government, given nominal compensation and often a promise of a new apartment somewhere in the suburbs (but without rural land on which to practice their traditional livelihoods). The land is then subdivided by city planners into enormous plots and sold to property developers at a rate much higher than the rate used to compensate the evicted farmers. The following Google Earth image shows a section of Century City, an early 2000s development in suburban Kunming. It is typical of Chinese commodity housing developments which appear to be planned to appeal to those viewing the development from a bird’s eye perspective.Chinese property developers never build one apartment building at a time, like property developers in the West do. Instead, they will develop one huge plot (known in Chinese as a “xiaoqu”), typically several acres in size, at the same time. One plot will inevitably contain dozens of identical high-rise apartments, usually 32 stories in height. Chinese urban planning law issues strict regulations on the amount of natural sunlight that must penetrate every new apartment unit, so as a result, high-rises are widely spaced apart with ample open space in between, or arranged around a man-made lake. Below is a site plan for a typical Chinese xiaoqu.Another facet of contemporary cities is the 城中村 or chengzhongcun, which literally translates as “village within the city” and is perhaps better translated as “urban village”. As the following series of 3 images shows, urban villages were originally rural villages surrounded by farmland, as you can see in the image of Xian Village in the 1970s (image courtesy of the Guangzhou Urban Planning Exhibition Hall). Over time, they were “swallowed up” by expanding urban footprints. Xian Village (as seen in the second image, taken from Google Earth’s historical data) was for years located immediately next to Guangzhou’s new CBD and premier urban district, the “Zhujiang New Town”. In 2018, Xian Village was completely demolished (third image, also Google Earth) and is currently a giant pile of rubble. It will be redeveloped as office towers and high rises. The original village landowners are now multimillionaires, as they were given compensation by the developer. However, the hundreds of thousands of migrant workers who used to live in the low-cost tenant housing quarters of this former urban village were given no compensation at all.The author took the following photo amidst the rubble of Xian Village in late 2018, with the towers of Zhujiang New Town CBD in the background. Urban villages in Chinese cities play an important function as a social safety valve. They are a source of low cost housing for the many urban migrants who come to Chinese cities in search of economic opportunities (in the past most worked in the industrial sector, but today more and more are working in the service sector). Although crowded, these urban villages are not slums. They are vibrant communities that make possible the functioning of the modern Chinese city (otherwise, China’s low paid service staff would never afford to live in the city, where housing costs are astronomical). Within the urban villages are all sorts of small businesses and entrepreneurial activity. It is a great shame that Xian Village no longer exists. It was once home to more than 100,000 migrant workers, who were able to take advantage of its central location to walk to or ride a bike to their jobs in the nearby CBD. Now that their homes are gone, they must relocate, probably to cheap housing in neighborhoods far away from their jobs, requiring them to spend hours on crowded bus or subways to commute to work each day.Chinese suburbs, composed mainly of high rise apartments, offer a striking contrast with American suburbs, which are usually composed of single-family houses. The contrast is slightly less with European cities, where high-rise suburbs also exist, and where single-family home suburbs are not as low density as in the United States. However, European suburbs usually have a more heterogenous mix of housing types, such as duplexes and low- and mid-rise apartments than that found in Chinese suburbs. The following image shows a typical Chinese suburban xiaoqu where the buildings are uniform in style, height, and tone:Another distinguishing feature of Chinese suburban xiaoqu is that they are typically closed-access. In this way they are similar to gated communities in the West, although without the necessary distinction of being high-end. A single xiaoqu covering several acres will often possess only one or two entry points, controlled with an electronic card reader, gates, and 24 hour security guard. This guarantees that only the residents of the xiaoqu enjoy access to the open space within. It also has a significant impact on the urban morphology or urban form of contemporary Chinese cities.Urban morphology refers to the structure of the city. If you break a city down to its most basic building blocks, you have blocks and streets. Universal principles of urban planning and design tell us that small blocks and narrow streets make for better cities. Smaller blocks and narrower streets make walking more pleasant, giving the pedestrian more choices of paths from A to B. They slow down fast-moving traffic. They create tighter-knit neighborhoods. Small blocks and narrow streets are common in European cities and some American cities. They are common in the older urban cores of Chinese cities. Unfortunately, they are not common in China’s newer urban districts.Because Chinese commodity housing is developed in large-scale xiaoqu, modern Chinese blocks are necessarily huge by comparison to Western urban blocks. Because Chinese blocks are so large, there is not room for a fine-grained network of smaller streets. As a result, all traffic must be funneled onto a few arterial streets. In order to accommodate all this traffic, modern Chinese streets are extremely wide by comparison with Western streets. This combination of large blocks and wide streets, as seen in the following Google Earth image, makes for environments which are extremely unfriendly to pedestrians, and which encourage and reward automobile use over walking and bicycling.The following image contains two maps, each showing different neighborhoods in Shanghai. The map on the left shows part of Shanghai’s urban core, the map on the right shows a new urban district of Shanghai. Both maps show the exact same area (3 km x 3 km). Note how different the urban form in the two maps appears. The map on the left contains a dense network of narrow streets, which subdivide this 9 sq km zone into hundreds of small blocks. The map on the right contains mainly wide arterial streets, and the 9 sq km zone is subdivided into just a few dozen blocks. The map on the right, unfortunately, is what most modern Chinese cities look like today. The neighborhood on the left is much more diverse, fun, exciting, and colorful. Unfortunately, neighborhoods like this are a dying breed in China today.The next shows three more maps, each map showing a section of a different city. Again, all three maps show the exact same area: a 3 km by 3 km square. The map of San Francisco shows that city’s downtown area, whose urban form dates to the late 1800s and early 1900s. Note the preponderance of small blocks. The map of Phoenix shows a typical suburban neighborhood of that city, dating from the 1950s. Although suburban Phoenix is not a typical example of “pedestrian-friendly” urban planning, we can see that from an urban form perspective, the size of the blocks is still relatively small. The map of Beijing shows a newly developed commodity housing xiaoqu in the suburbs outside the 5th Ring Road. Note the huge scale of the blocks here. Very typical of modern Chinese urban planning, and completely out of scale with Western urban form.Today, China’s official urbanization rate is 50%, but the actual figure is higher because China’s antiquated household (or “hukou”) registration system classifies millions of low-skilled workers who left their villages to work in the factories and service industries of the cities as “rural population.” The government is actively promoting urbanization, in some cases literally wiping villages off the map and forcing rural populations to relocate in newly built cities. Demographers estimate that China will achieve an urbanization rate on par with the United States (~85%) in another 10–20 years.In other aspects of urban development, Chinese cities have already surpassed Western cities. There are 35 Chinese cities today with subway systems, more than in all of Western Europe combined. Of those 35 subway systems, 28 opened in the last 10 years alone. An additional 10 Chinese cities will have new subway systems open in the next 2–3 years. Chinese cities currently occupy the top three spots in the world for longest subway systems.In population density, Chinese cities are on a path towards convergence with Western Cities. In the past, Chinese cities were amongst the densest in the world, but in the last 25 years they have seen their population densities drop significantly. This has happened despite the fact that Chinese cities have gained in population. This is possible because Chinese cities have expanded in land area faster than they have grown in population. The following maps show the expansion in land area of seven Chinese cities since 1990:In 1990, Chinese cities were roughly on par with other Asian cities in population density. Today they are significantly less dense than cities in Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.Circa 1990, Chinese cities were on average 1.35 times denser than European cities and 5.40 times denser than American cities. Today, they are only 1.05 times denser than European cities on average, and 3.30 times denser than American cities.Urban sprawl is a common phenomenon in the cities of both the United States and China. Formerly separate cities are “blending” into each other as they expand around the edges. The Pearl River Delta area (which the Chinese government is trying to brand as the 粤港澳大湾区, or “Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area”) is a prime example of this. The following map shows the urban footprints of the cities that make up this megaregion, circa 1991 and 2014. The map superimposes modern density data over these two snapshots in time. The effect is to show that the areas that were already urbanized prior to the 1990s are the densest parts of the megaregion today, whereas most of the areas that were urbanized since the 1990s are of much lower density.

Which country has the most promising future on the Muslim world among Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Nigeria?

To see which of the countries among the Muslim world has the brightest future, one must first view each individually. There is a minor problem in the question that requires correction. If you want to view the future of the Muslim world, you must also look at two of it’s most influential countries. These being Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Another thing to note is that Nigeria is not exactly viewed as a Muslim country since the population is split almost 50–50 between Christians and Muslims.Lets view each country, both the positives and negatives.EgyptThe Egyptian flag, with the eagle of Saladin in the center of the tricolors.Egypt has many things going for it. The most important of these being it’s location. Egypt is one of the few countries in the world that span two different continents. It serves as the place where Asia meets Africa. Culturally Egypt seems to be an Asian country but geographically it is African. Then there is the Suez Canal and it’s importance in maritime trade.Egypt is the 29th largest country in the world with a population of about 95 million. It is the most populated Arab country. It has access to both Europe via the Mediterranean Sea and Asia via the Red Sea.Lets begin with the economy. Egypt has a nominal GDP of about 250 billion USD and GDP (PPP) of about 1.3 trillion USD. The estimated GDP growth for this year is at 5.3%. For a country that was on the verge of chaos a few years back, this is pretty good. It has a HDI of 0.696 which places it in the medium human development category. So overall economically, the situation for Egypt from an economic standpoint is not bad. The tourism industry is starting to grow once more as stability returns.Military is where Egypt shines with it’s experienced military force. It boasts the largest and most powerful of all Arab military forces with a proud military history. Egypt now ranks at number 12 in the world according to the Global Firepower Rankings with a score of 0.2283. The country has a law in favor of military conscription of all men. There are 440,000 active personnel and 480,000 in reserve. It’s total aircraft strength is 1092 ranking it 9th in the entire world. It has a total naval strength of 319. It also has 2160 combat tanks in total ranking it in 12th place. Egypt is also an oil producing country so would not be completely dependent on foreign resources. The Egyptian military ensures stability in the country and is at times too involved in internal politics.The political situation for Egypt is not that great. In 2011 massive protest began in the country forcing the dictator President Mubarak to flee. In the elections that followed Muhamed Morsi won and became the new president. His close relations with the Muslim Brotherhood worried some of the other parties including many liberals. In 2012 there was massive dissent against his government and many clashes between his supporters and opponents. In 2013, a military coup removed him from power. Thousands of the Muslim brotherhood supporters were killed or imprisoned. In 2014 Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, head of the military, won the elections by a landslide. The elections however were boycotted by many and in all probability were rigged. His victory was once again followed by repression and arrest with trials. According to BBC about 40,000 people have been imprisoned in total. He has since then tried to build a cult personality and support around himself.Sisi, the president of EgyptMorsi, Egypt’s only democratic president, died on 17 June 2019 in prison due to a heart attack. Some believing that he was killed. In my opinion, the problem with the Egyptian system has not truly been solved. Instead it has only been delayed. The repression will eventually result in all of the buried anger exploding once again in another decade or two.One the biggest problem the Egypt faces is it’s natural geography. Only 3% of the Egyptian land is arable and that is where the entire Egyptian population lives. This is around the River Nile and it’s delta. Egypt receives very little rainfall and so depends on water from the Nile for both agriculture and the survival of it’s people. This river is the entire county’s life line.Egypt’s geographyThe population densityUnfortunately for Egypt, Ethiopia is building a massive dam on the Blue Nile River. This threatens Egypt’s water supply. In 1929, a treaty between the British colonies and Egypt gave Egypt the right to veto any such project. Ethiopia claims that it was not a signatory to the treaty. Egypt and Ethiopia have yet to come to some sort of agreement on sharing the Nile’s water. However, Egypt has stated in the past that all options are on the table and that it will not allow their water supply to be endangered. If the situation worsens, it may even result in war in the coming decades.Egypt, home of the PharaohsIranThe Islamic Republic of Iran is the center of Shia Islam in the world. It position on the world map grants it many advantages. It has a large coastline on the Persian Gulf, one of the oil rich regions in the world. Then Iran, more or less, has control over the Strait of Hormuz, the only way to enter or leave the Persian Gulf. Did I mention that 20–25% of the world’s oil and around 30% of gas comes from there. This affords it a special position that no other country possesses.Iran is the 17th largest country in the world with a population of about 83 million. Iran is a mountainous country that serves as a giant fortress.Iran’s economy has been progressively worsening with time ever since the US pulled out of the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2018. With this Iran was heavily sanctioned to place pressure of the government. Iran is a major energy supplier with 10% of the worlds oil and 15% of gas reserves. This makes the Iranian economy heavily dependent on the export of fossil fuels.Iran has a nominal GDP of 484 billion USD and GDP (PPP) of 1.54 trillion USD. The estimated GDP growth for this year is about -3.6%. It has an HDI of 0.798 which places Iran in the high Human Development category. The negative GDP growth indicates that the Iranian economy is in free fall. Iran has asked the European members to uphold their parts of the nuclear deal or risk Iran developing nuclear weapons. What they choose to do appears to be seen. The US will continue to squeeze the Iranian economy to force the government to come to the table on America’s terms. This seems unlikely at the moment. The Iranian Rial has also been damaged with one USD equal to 42,105 Iranian Rials. Due to the sanctions, Iran’s oil exports have also been cut as no one wants to risk US sanctions.Iran, similar to Egypt, has a very proud military history and tradition. Iran is does well in both symmetrical and asymmetrical war capabilities. Iran ranks at number 14 according to the Global Firepower Rankings with a score of 0.2606. The Iranian military consists of the regular army and the Revolutionary Guard. It has total active personnel numbering about 523,000 and 350,000 in reserve. Iran has a total aircraft strength of 509 ranking it at 24. Iran has 1634 combat tanks in total ranking it at 18. Iran’s total naval strength is 398. Iran is completely oil-sufficient meaning that it relies on no foreign fuel. This gives it a major advantage in case of conflict.Iran has also greatly improved it’s cyber warfare capabilities and now ranks among one of the best. In 2012 Iran is believed to have launched an attack on the Saudi national oil company, ARAMCO. This resulted in a temporary shutdown of the company.As I mentioned before, Iran is a massive fortress protected by mountain ranges. This makes any invasion of the country a suicide attempt. Even if one was to defeat Iran in war, holding onto Iran would be far to expensive.Where Iran truly shines is asymmetrical warfare. Evidence of this can be seen throughout the Middle East. The Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon give Iran a widespread influence. This influence is unmatched by any of the other countries on this list. Iran has waged a war that it is winning against Saudi Arabia for years without even having to declare war. It is believed that the total strength of these proxy forces ranges from 100,000–150,000.Qasem Soleimani, the world’s greatest mind at asymmetrical warfare.The political situation in Iran one of a kind. While Iran on the surface appears to be a democracy, the Supreme Leader holds the true power. The presidents power in comparison are quite limited. Iran is in real a theocracy where the religious bodies hold far too much power. There have been many protests regarding the mandatory hijab law among other reasons but all of these were quashed. The worsening economy will no doubt force more protests and put more pressure on the government. It remains to be seen how the government will respond.Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme LeaderAnother problem that Iran may face is that the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and return of sanctions will be seen as a failure of Hassan Rouhani and his moderates. This may force out Hassan Rouhani and the moderates in favor of the hardliners. This is something that no one wants to see happen.The problem that I find with Iran’s politics and policy is that it seems that Iran is far more interested in what goes on outside of Iran than inside. It seems to pay more attention to the people outside rather than the Iranian nationals.It remains to be seen how Iran will react to the sanctions. Will it renew it’s nuclear ambitions or will it try to come to some sort of new agreement? The biggest problem for Iran is that its greatest enemy,through no choice of it’s own, is the world’s current superpower.Iran’s future will always be uncertain so long as the US is the sole superpower.Iran, home of Cyrus the GreatPakistanPakistan, similar to both Iran and Egypt, has a very important geographical location. Pakistan serves as the crossroads of Asia. It is where the Indian Subcontinent, Central Asia and the Middle East meet. This location makes it quite important in geopolitics. To access Central Asia, Pakistan’s assistance is required. This is why we see the US calling Pakistan an ally and coming back to it despite the bad history between the two.Pakistan is ranked 33rd by land area in the world and has a population of about 215 million. Pakistan has a relatively small coastline along the Arabian Sea. Pakistan can be thought of as a mixture of mainly two groups of people. The people of Indian origin in the eastern half (Punjabi, Siraiki, Sindhi) and Iranian people in the western half (Baloch, Pashtun).Pakistan’s economy is in crisis mode. It is not quite in free fall but it is not doing well either. Pakistan’s government is desperately trying to stabilize the economy. Pakistan’s nominal GDP is around 315 billion USD and GDP (PPP) is 1.195 trillion USD. The GDP growth is around 3.29%. Pakistan has an HDI of 0.562 which puts it barely in the medium human development category.As I mentioned before, Pakistan is not doing well economically. There are quite a few reasons for this such as increasing imports and decreasing exports. The previous few governments in Pakistan buried everything under the rug and now the country faces a crisis. The GDP growth has slowed down. The economy is slowing. While on the other hand taxes and inflation rises as the subsidies decrease. The Pakistani Rupee has hit an all time low with one USD equal to 163 rupees. For a long time instead of forming a proper economic model, Pakistani governments have taken on loans to make ends meet. The Debt-to-GDP ratio is now almost 70%. The country was once again forced to turn to the IMF. Now Pakistan is trying to gather the money required from any source possible.To summarize, Pakistan is not doing well on the economic front. Not anywhere as bad as Iran but still not well.Pakistan meets the IMF chiefPakistan just like the countries above is a military powerhouse. Pakistan comes in at number 15 according to the Global Firepower Rankings with a score of 0.2798. Pakistan’s active military personnel number about 654,000 with another 550,000 in reserve. Pakistan’s total aircraft strength is 1342 which ranks Pakistan at 7 in the world. It has 2200 combat tanks in total with a rank of 13. Pakistan’s total naval strength is 197. Pakistan’s small navy is due to the relatively small coastline. Pakistan’s greatest weakness is the Pakistan is not self sufficient in it’s energy needs and would need an external supply in case of conflict.What gives Pakistan an edge over the other military forces in this group is that it is a nuclear power. Pakistan has somewhere between 140–150 nuclear weapons. Pakistan is also one of the few nuclear armed countries in the world alongside Israel that does not have a ‘no first use’ policy. This makes any military action against the country a very risky endeavor.Pakistan’s military forces are extremely battle hardened having fought multiple wars against India and assisted in conflicts throughout the world. Being constantly on guard in a semi-paranoid state has resulted in an extremely well-trained and disciplined army.While Pakistan has over the years shown great skill in asymmetrical warfare over the years second only to Iran in this group, that is not Pakistan’s greatest advantage. Where Pakistan dominates is in it’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). It is considered one of the world’s best with its true abilities on display in the Soviet-Afghan war.The ISI logoPakistan, similar to Iran, is a mountainous country. On top of that the cities are heavily populated making holding them for any foreign force, in event of a war, a logistical nightmare.Pakistan’s political situation is, for the lack of a better term, a clusterfuck. The country has since it’s inception multiple times gone back and forth between dictators and democratic governments. Power has passed from nationalists to religious conservatives to even communists/socialists. It seems that finally the country has settled on democracy with Imran Khan as the third democratically elected prime minister.Even now Pakistan’s government is hard to understand. The military made strong out of necessity has far too much political power and influences the government. The ISI is said to have a great influence as well. Then there are the many corrupt politicians using politics as a career for robbing the country blind.For the time being Imran Khan is the prime minister after winning the elections earlier this year with his PTI party. While the man seems to be honest, there are times when he seems incompetent. His ambiguous and changing policies leave one confused. The bad economy and the corrective changes required to fix it will affect his popularity. However with many of the other leading politicians in jail for corruption and most parties having lost the public support, PTI has reasonable chances for another victory given that the economy can be stabilized.Imran Khan, Pakistan’s Prime MinisterThe greatest problem that Pakistan currently faces is it’s failing economy. Then there is the problem of terrorism. Illiteracy in the country runs rampant further worsening the situation.Pakistan’s geographical location is one of it’s greatest advantages and worst disadvantage. On the east, Pakistan is bordered by India. The two countries do not get along in very simple terms. On the west there is Afghanistan, a country that has hated Pakistan at its very independence and a history of unrest and civil wars. Pakistan has friendly ties with Iran but the US sanctions prevent Pakistan from dealing with Iran. Lastly to the north there is China, a country that Pakistan has great relations with but one that worries the US, Pakistan’s other ally.Pakistan is getting closer to China and joining the ‘One Belt, One Road’ project. This damages Pakistan’s relationship with the US who is currently in a trade war with China. Lets not forget the questionable and secretive details of the CPEC project itself. That is Pakistan’s challenge. Fixing the economy while balancing the relationships between China and the US.For further read of Pakistan’s problems, read another answer that goes into greater detail.‎Ahmad Abubakr (احمد ابوبکر)‎'s answer to Why is Pakistan not developing?Pakistan, heir to the Indus Valley CivilizationIndonesiaIndonesia is an archipelago of over 17,000 different islands. Out of all of these countries, Indonesia is the only one located far away from the Middle East. Due to this Indonesia has little effect on the Middle East and vice versa. This means that Indonesia is free of all of the Middle East’s problems. That is not to say that Indonesia is not located in a strategic location. Indonesia is a massive country that is located in close proximity and even controls some of the world’s most important maritime trade routes. This gives the country great potential for wealth.Indonesia is the worlds 14th largest country by land mass and the worlds 7th largest country if you also include Indonesia’s seas. It is the world’s most heavily populated Muslim majority country with a population of about 260 million. Indonesia has the ideal location for trade. It has access to both the Indian and the Pacific ocean.Economically, Indonesia is doing great. The best in this group of countries. It has a nominal GDP of almost 1.1 trillion USD and GDP (PPP) of 3.7 trillion USD. Indonesia’s estimated GDP growth for this year is at 5.2%. It has a HDI of 0.694 placing it in the category of median human development.As I mentioned before, Indonesia’s location puts it in the center of many maritime trade route. About 20–25% of the entire world’s trading good pass through the Strait of Malacca. Much of East Asia’s trade passes through here. Indonesia close proximity to such trade routes and wealthy East Asian nations gives it an economic advantage.A map of maritime trade traffic.Indonesia has quite a diversified economy. Palm oil is one of it’s greatest export being the worlds largest supply of Palm oil, producing half of the entire world’s supply. It also has a booming tourism industry.To summarize, Indonesia easily takes the lead from an economic perspective. Indonesia will almost certainly become an economic powerhouse that very few would be able to match in the coming decades.One of the many tourism sites in IndonesiaIndonesia is ranked 16 on the Global Firepower Ranking with a score of 0.2804. It has 400,000 active personnel and another 400,000 in reserve. It has 451 total aircrafts which ranks it at 30. Indonesia has a total of 315 combat tanks which puts it in the 52nd position. Indonesia’s total navy strength is 221 which should really be much higher considering that Indonesia is a massive archipelago. Lack of military threats and conflicts has resulted in a weaker military as compared to the countries above. This has allowed Indonesia to invest that effort and money into the economy which has certainly paid off. Compared with some of the others Indonesia has not been properly tested in war. Should the situation in the South China Sea worsen, Indonesia may find itself having to build up it’s forces.Indonesia’s political situation is fine. There is a proper democratic system in place that seems to be functioning well. While there may be occasional hiccups along the way, Indonesia has more or less created a stable political system that seems to work.Joko Widodo, President of IndonesiaThe problem for Indonesia lies in that it seems to have very little influence at an international level. It's soft power is nonexistent considering the size, population and economy of Indonesia.Another problem seems to the whole ‘sinking’ of Jakarta.However if Indonesia continues on its current trajectory, there is a bright future ahead.The Indonesian Archipelago, a paradise within the seaTurkeyTurkey like Egypt is a country that spans two continents. However unlike Egypt, Turkey is a Eurasian country. Turkey has one of the greatest geographical locations. It is situated between the Aegean, the Marmara and the Black Sea. It has connections with both the Middle East and Europe. In this way it serves as a bridge between these two worlds.It is the world's 32nd largest country with a population of 82 million. The majority of the population are Turks with the Kurds as the largest minority group. Turkey similar to Iran is like a fortress with a mountainous central region. The Bosphorus strait gives Turkey sole control over the gates to the Black Sea providing some leverage over Russia.Turkey is also currently facing economic problems. However compared to Pakistan and Iran, the problems are nonexistent. Turkey has a nominal GDP of 766 billion USD and GDP (PPP) of 2.292 trillion USD. It has an estimated GDP growth of 1% for this year. Turkeys HDI score is 0.791 which places it in the group of high human development.As I said before, Turkey is not doing great economically. The economy is slowing down. Last year the value of the Lira fell. One USD is equal to 5.69 Turkish Lira. Part of the reason for this economic downturn is Turkey’s conflicting interests with the US. The relationship with some European countries has also strained.On the bright side, Turkey’s economy seems to have largely stabilized. It is believed that by the end of this year Turkey’s GDP growth will have reached about 2.5%.Istanbul, Turkey’s financial capitalMilitary wise Turkey easily tops this group . It is a nation steeped in a thousand years of military tradition. A nation that responded to losing a world war by starting a war for independence. The Global Firepower Ranking ranks Turkey at number 9 with a score of 0.2089. Turkey has 355,000 active personnel and 380,000 reserve personnel. The total aircraft strength is 1067 ranking at 10th. Turkey has 3200 combat tanks in total ranking at 7th. The total naval strength is 194. Turkey is also not self-sufficient in terms of fuel.Turkey’s military force is a modernized army armed with better equipment than the others on this list. As I mentioned before that Iran’s military edge comes from asymmetrical warfare and Pakistan’s from ISI and nuclear capabilities. Turkeys military edge is their military might or conventional warfare. Turkey has for over a decade fought against terrorism and is prepared for any such encounters. We saw last year that proxy forces cannot stand up to a well disciplined conventional military force. Afrin serves as evidence of this.Turkey is also a member of NATO which makes any attack suicide. Not only that, Turkey’s geography makes any invasion of the country a suicide attempt.Turkey has a properly developed democratic system. The current president of Turkey is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with his party AKP and the MHP party ruling after an alliance between the two. In 2016 there was a coup by a group to take control of the country and depose the government. It ended in disaster for this faction as the Turkish people came onto the streets. Since then the political situation has been quite stable. In the recent Istanbul election, the ruling party AKP lost the city. Whether or not this wave of unpopularity will spread remains to be seen.Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s presidentTurkey has always had a disadvantage when it comes at the international level especially considering Europe. For years Turkey tried to be admitted into the EU, jumping through all sorts of loops and making all sorts of changes. What holds Turkey back from joining the Europe completely is largely a bias and racism. Turkey despite now being a secular country and modern state is still treated as the Ottoman Empire of old. Some European countries seem to see Turkey as the enemy of Europe and will not allow them under any circumstance to join the EU.Turkey’s new policy seems to be to move away from Europe and develop influence in the Muslim world and the Middle East. This seems to be working. Turkey’s reputation in the Muslim world seems to have greatly improved. Turkey has also developed influence in Syria and Iraq. A new military base with strong new ties in Qatar has also helped matters. Turkey has also set up a military base in Somali to help stabilize the country.Turkish military base in QatarThis policy of trying to get involved in the Middle East has resulted in new rivals. Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt have all become the opposition for Turkey in the region.One thing that Turkey has done really well (better than any other country on this list) is soft power. Turkish TV shows are now seen through the world, especially the Muslim countries that lack such shows of their own. The shows based on history have especially gained a world wide audience. This has brought in increased revenue allowing the Turkish entertainment industry to further grow.One problem that Turkey currently faces is that Turkey and it’s allies no longer seem to have the same interests in the region. With some, such as the US, openly supporting the Kurdish Rebels that have over the years killed thousands of Turkish citizens.Turkey no longer wishes to serve other but rather wants to be a regional power in the Middle East. This is something that is not acceptable to the current powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of which have great influence on the American foreign policy. Iran would also wish to limit the Turkish influence. However necessity has forced Iran to improve relations with Turkey.This is Turkey’s challenge. To improve the country’s influence in the this world of where new alliances are being made. As a whole, Turkey’s future also seems quite bright. While Turkey is not on the same level as Indonesia economically, it is still doing well. The economy seems to have started to recover. It’s powerful military makes the country extremely stable.Turkey, successors of the Ottoman EmpireSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia is the most influential of the Arab nations. Saudi Arabia controls much of the Arabian peninsula from where Islam actually originated. Saudi Arabia contains the two most holiest sites in Islam, Mecca and Medina. This gives Saudi Arabia significant influence and leverage over the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia has the world’s second largest oil reserves. This is a wealthy country that has significant influence on the US foreign policy. This serves as their strength.Saudi Arabia is the world’s 12th largest country with a population of about 33 million. While this may seem like less for a country so large, you have to remember that the majority of Saudi Arabia is a desert. Saudi Arabia has access to both the oil rich Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.Saudi Arabia has a nominal GDP of about 760 billion USD and GDP (PPP) of 1.92 trillion USD. The estimated GDP growth for this year is 1.7%. The HDI of Saudi Arabia is 0.853 placing it in the category of very high human development, the highest of all the countries on this list.Saudi Arabia is an oil rich country where the oil is not only found in abundance but is also very close to the surface making it more profitable. The fossil fuel industry accounts for 90% of all exports earnings and 40% of the GDP. This makes the Saudi economy extremely dependent on the oil prices. Any fall in oil prices hits the Saudi economy hard.It is precisely because of this that Saudi Arabia is trying to diversify its economy. The Saudi Vision 2030 is the flagship for this. However the foreign investment required for this has been nowhere near the required levels. Saudi Arabia’s conservative culture and reputation has not helped in this. What has made matters is the Yemen bombings which has ruined Saudi Arabia’s reputation internationally. Then there is the matter of Muhammad bin Salman’s, the crown prince, antics including the whole Jamal Khashoggi incident. All of these factors resulted in the lack of success in Davos in the Desert.Jamal Khashoggi, a victim of Muhammad bin Salman’s paranoiaSaudi Arabia ranks 25 according to the Global Firepower Rankings with a score of 0.4286. This is the lowest on this list so far. What makes this ranking even worse is that Saudi Arabia has the world’s 3rd highest military budget of about 70 billion USD. Compare this to Pakistan’s 11 billion or Turkey’s 19 billion with which both countries rank in the top 15. This shows a great deal of inefficiency and incompetence within the military.Saudi Arabia has 230,000 active personnel with no reserves whatsoever, illustrating my point perfectly. The total aircraft strength is 848 which ranks it at 12. There are 1062 tanks in total ranking it at 24. The total naval strength is 55. Far below what any nation the size of Saudi Arabia should have, especially given the Iran-Saudi cold war. What the Saudi military does have going in their favor is that the country is self-sufficient in oil.A serious problem with the Saudi military is the lack of meritocracy. In most countries, the military has the best meritocratic system. This is not the case with Saudi Arabia. Another issue is that the royal family cannot allow a general to become to powerful or popular. Otherwise they may face the same fate as countless other kings that existed in the Middle East before. The Saudi military also lacks any real battle experience or military culture. All of these factors have resulted in a bloated military that has the best instruments of war but do not know how to best make use of them. The war in Yemen has demonstrated this perfectly. Iran seems to do more with a hundred USD than Saudi does with a million.There is also the issue of Saudi Arabia’s reliance on foreign military for security. Whether this is because of a lack of trust in the abilities of the Saudi military or their ambitions is unknown. Saudi Arabia’s best form of defense is relying on foreign military forces especially the US.Pakistani Military in Saudi ArabiaThe political situation of Saudi Arabia, while stable, is not ideal. Saudi Arabia has a system of absolute monarchy where the royal family holds the power. Such monarchies are usually the worst forms of government. It is like repeatedly flipping a coin, hoping it continues to land on heads. Eventually this system of governance results in an incompetent leader which can end up destroying a country.Currently the king of Saudi Arabia is Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. However many believe that the true power lies with the crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman. While MBS did initially have a positive image of that of a modernizer. All of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to create a positive image for MBS were wasted when he decided to kill Jamal Khashoggi within the Saudi Embassy. The Yemen war has made things worse for him as many blame him for the mass starvation in Yemen. The only image that exists of MBS now internationally is that of a bloodthirsty dictator similar to Sadam.Saudi Arabia has also started to improve relations with Israel at the expense of the Palestinian support. Time will tell how this plays out. This could come back to bite Saudi Arabia.Muhammad Bin Salman, the crown princeSaudi Arabia has the advantage of great wealth and this is used as a bargaining chip. This wealth is used to buy support from both developed and developing countries. This gives Saudi Arabia more or less immunity from any repercussions regardless of what they might do. This was best seen by Trump clearly stating that the US cannot afford to give up the mass weapons deals with the Saudis because they do not want to lose them as a client.Another political mistake made by Saudi Arabia was alienating Qatar. This has resulted in Al Jazeera, the only new media from the Arabian Peninsula with any credibility, to publish negative stories about Saudi Arabia nonstop.Lastly, there is the issue of repression of the people. Anyone who protests even peacefully is imprisoned and on times executed. Including the women who fought for women’s rights. Like everywhere else, this repression can result in buried anger exploding in rebellions. Repression only works so far.Murtaja Qureiris, initially sentenced to death for a crime that he committed when he was 10 years old.Saudi Arabia, home of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) and birthplace of Islam.Conclusion:Egypt is still recovering from it’s failed revolution. The economy has just started to recover and will need time. Sisi is doing exactly what the earlier dictators did. In all likelihood, the same events will repeat themselves resulting in another revolution in perhaps a decade or two.Iran’s problem are twofold. Iran and the US. As long as the Iranian government insists upon trying to start this whole Shia-Sunni thing. I do not see the lives of everyday Iranians improving. Then there is the US. So long as Iran and the US don’t make peace, Iran will not do well economically.Pakistan, the country with endless potential that never seems to achieve it. Read the detailed answer for more information but definitely not the one with the brightest future.Indonesia most definitely has a bright future. Economically it will almost certainly become a giant in South-East Asia. The problem is the lack of soft power and international influence.Turkey seems to be the most well balanced. Militarily it leads the list. Economically it had a down turn but things seem to be getting better again. Politically the situation is stable. It also does not seem to have the problems that many others on this list have.Saudi Arabia does have great influence. However the problem lies with the fact that in a world moving away from fossil fuels, Saudi needs vision 2030. Only problem is that they seem to be getting in their own way. Saudi’s international support is mostly based on money which can rapidly decrease. Not a dependable military forcing them to rely on outsiders. Not good for any country.I would say that the two countries with the brightest futures in the Muslim world are Turkey and Indonesia. Indonesia will certainly do the best if you only want to consider economics. It will become the wealthiest Muslim majority nation. However Turkey is far more balanced. It does well in every aspect. It’s worst aspect, the economy, seems to be improving as well. If I only had to choose one, then I would say Turkey.*I do not know enough about Nigeria to answer for it as of yet. I will study it in greater detail and add it later on once I learn more.*If I made any mistakes or missed out on anything about your respective country, feel free to let me know.

Does India have a chance of winning Oscar?

Oscars or Academy Awards are considered as benchmark and the highest recognition for films worldwide, by many Indians, to which i have a very mixed opinion.The Academy Awards are conducted by AMPAS (Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences), an international organization, that has members from all around the world, but the award show, that they are conducting, are mostly meant for excellence in American movies.Academy Awards are Hollywood-centricOne can’t be wrong, if he/she said that Oscar is an American award ceremony because Majority of films that won in any of the major categories, since 1st Academy Award ceremony in 1929, were American films.To make it more obvious, they literally have an award category named, Best Foreign Language Film, which shows that their awards are mainly meant for American movies.The only category where non-American films, have any scope of winning is in this category, which is obvious from the name itself. Yet, there were several foreign films, that were nominated in other major categories, but most of them never been able to win in any of those.Even the foreign movies, that gets nominated are mostly European movies, with some exceptions like, the movies from, Japan, Iran, Israel and few others.Yet, there are several exceptional cases, like the 1997 Italian Period-Comedy Drama film, Life is Beautiful, which had 7 nominations, for various categories (including Best Foreign Language film and Best Picture) and in the end, it was able to win only for the Best Foreign Language film, Best Actor (Robert Benigni) and Best Original Score (Nicolo Piovani) (It’s unusual for a non-English artists to grab the award for these categories).Also, the most recent one, where 2019 South Korean Black Comedy film, Parasite, got nominated for various major categories, where it was able to win in most of them, which not only includes , Best Foreign Film category but it also includes Best Picture, which makes it the first South Korean film and also the first non-English film to grab to win Best Picture award.It wasn’t surprising to me, that Parasite was able to win this award, for multiple reasons, one of the reasons that i think, is due to Bong-Joon Ho’s popularity among Hollywood artists, as he had already did two English-language films, which had crew and actors from Hollywood, like, his 2013 sci-fi film, Snowpiercer, which had popular actors from both Hollywood and South Korean Cinema, like, Chris Evans, Ed Harris, Tilda Swinton, John Hurt, Song Kang-Ho; then again in his, 2017 adventure film, Okja, which similarly had great talents from both countries like, Jake Gyllenhaal, Tilda Swinton, Steven Yeun, Giancarlo Esposito, Ahn Seo-hyun. Both these films were well-received critically among worldwide audiences, even praised by several Americans, so, Bong-Joon Ho, already had earned reputation among, Hollywood film fraternity.But Parasite and Life is Beautiful are just rare examples, for most part of the history, Academy awards are just American-centric award show, so, if we consider that, Indian Cinema has least chance of winning an Oscar. But, Parasite have opened the doors for many non-English movies, including from India, to get recognized at Oscars.Winning requires to follow certain guidelines and strong campaigningIn order to get their movies nominated the makers, including both Hollywood and non-Hollywood films, need to follow certain guidelines.One of the guidelines, is to screen their movies in Los Angeles, in a particular period of time, specifically, during the months following the ceremony. Other than that, many of the films, also require screening across in various reputed film festivals, around the world.Even after all this, if one movie gets nominated, makers need to do strong campaigning for their movies, by spending a lot of money, even the best movie can loose the chance, if the makers don’t have enough money to campaign for their films.So, it’s a hard hitting truth that, if makers don’t have enough money, then they can’t influence the voters, and if they can’t influence the voters, then there is a least chance that they will be able to grab an award.Parasite was quite popular since it’s release on May 2019, it was screened during that year’s Cannes Film Festival, where it was quickly deemed to be not only the best film of the festival but a future masterpiece in the making. Bong-Joon Ho even became the first South Korean director to win the prestigious Palme d’Or from the festival, other than that, it was able to win several other accolades, from across the globe.When it was released in United States, it had excellent promotional campaign that worked to not only introduce the movie to Hollywood but to open the doors of South Korean cinema to a wider audience. So much so, the cast and crew of the film, were on spotlight for months, they were everywhere giving multiple interviews for various magazines and taking photographs. Many have already started predicting that Parasite was indeed going to grab the award, even for the Best Picture category.When it finally got to be nominated, voters just can’t ignore this film, it had a unique story about class division, which had a universal appeal, along with great story, it had great performances and great direction, overall it was a unique film, and also the buzz that it had created for several months and most importantly, they got a great opportunity to make a history, to leave their comfort zone and to prove that they are not just an American-centric show, so, it makes sense that Parasite was able to win the award.When it comes to Indian Cinema, i think big-budget production houses, across various languages, can afford to campaign for their films, if their movies get nominated, but they are mostly known for making commercial movies, that doesn’t mean that they don’t make quality films, but most of the quality films in our country are made by low budget production houses and they can’t even afford to even screen their movies, in many of the highly reputed film festivals. Oscar is just too far for them to even think. Many Indian movies which were submitted to oscars, lost the chance to get nominated because of this particular reason.Oscar’s perception of movies in generalOne of interesting things that we have to notice is that, in general, their perception of a great movie is unique.Most of the prominent movies that were able to win were Drama, biopics, some of them were biopic on controversial figures, movies about disabled person and movies about movies in general.Also, the movies that are least likely to receive award are comic book adaptations, fantasy, sci-fi, horror and musicals.That was the main reason why actor Forrest Whittaker won the Best Actor award for his portrayal of Ugandan dictator, Idi Amin, in the Last King of Scotland, along with the fact he delivered a great performance in that film. Brad Pitt was able to grab the award for the Best Supporting Actor, may be, because he portrayed an aging Hollywood stuntman during late 60s.Movies like The Artist was able to grab the award because the story itself about movie making industry.Similarly, movies in genre like science fiction, horror, musicals, even comic book adaptations, are least likely to grab any award, may be because the voters might consider them as an inferior form of movies.That was the reason why Black Panther and The Dark Knight lost the chance, to win the Best Picture award because it was a comic book adaptation.Here’s where Indian movies can have disadvantage, as most of the Indian movies have random musical numbers, in between, though the genre might not even be musical, which kind of ruins the movie viewing experience for a typical westerner, as they are not used to watch these kinds of films. Such musical numbers also increases the runtime of the film, which is just another disadvantage.Take the case of last year’s Gully Boy, which was the official Indian submission to Oscars last year, but never got nominated, a musical film about the life of an aspiring street rapper, which overall was just a good film, if we compare it with other Bollywood movies of the year. But, it wasn’t Oscar worthy, also the concept was taken from 2002 film, 8-Mile, which was semi-autobiography of Eminem. May be the people sitting in FFI (Film Federation of India), might have taught that people sitting there in AMPAS, might nominate this film, because rap music is a familiar territory for them, without knowing their dislike towards Musical films in general.May be the idea of inserting musical numbers into the films might be one of the reasons why movies like Mother India, Salaam Bombay! and Lagaan, which were the only 3 Indian movies nominated as of yet, lost the chance because of the musical numbers in it.The alleged corruption in FFIFFI (Film Federation of India), is the organization, that decides which movie should be send for Academy award from India each year, yet many have accused the organization for it’s alleged corruption in their decision making.We have to take a look at the type of movies, they have been sending to Oscars, all these years. Majority of them were Bollywood movies, they have conveniently ignored movies from other parts of country for a long time, for some unknown reasons. I don’t think much has changed as of yet.Also, they have chosen, SRK starrer, Paheli for 2002 academy awards, which to my opinion was just an average entertaining film, not a great oscar-worthy film, but many accused that, their production house, Red Chillies Entertainment, had influenced the decision makers in FFI.Also, many of the people sitting there, has no idea how to choose right films, like, what they did in 1996, with the Tamil vigilante film, Indian, which was the most expensive Indian movie of it’s time and also a good entertaining film, but not oscar worthy, because it had a lot of unnecessary scenes, including musical numbers that literally has nothing to do with the entire plot of the film.Then in 1998, they chose Tamil film Jeans, a typical romantic comedy film, that has nothing unique about itself, other than the fact, which again, the most expensive Indian movie of it’s time.they chose, Barfi! in 2012, which was accused for copying several scenes from several Hollywood films, including from Charlie Chaplin movies, i wondered did they really taught that, a plagiarized movie would get nominated, in the end.Then in 2019, they chose Gully Boy, out of all the great Indian movies of the year, like, Tumbaad, Kumbalangi Nights, Jallikattu, Super Deluxe, Aamis, Hamid, Sonchiriya and several others.Unless those people sitting there, in FFI, chose right kind of films, India doesn’t have any chance of winning Oscars.Perception of non-American culturesI think another reason, why i think, India doesn’t have any chance of winning Oscars, is that, the movies that we send to Oscars, doesn’t really fit their perception of India, in general.Take the example of 2008 British film, Slumdog Millionaire, which won the awards for several categories, including Best Picture, even though, this movie was in English, it featured actors from India and actors who are British of Indian descent, also the story is completely set in India.The reason why i think it was able to win those categories was due to the fact that, the movie literally fits all kinds of stereotypes of India in West.There was a reason why the movie’s protagonist, Jamal was raised in poverty and was from a slum in Mumbai, who got kidnapped by a group of traffickers, then spend some period of time near Taj Mahal as a fake tourist guide, then works as a chaiwalla in a Call Centre and his girlfriend getting kidnapped in a broad daylight, because all these things fits a typical white man’s perception of India, which is, poverty, Taj Mahal, call centre, chai (Tea) and lots of crime in broad daylight, if it was released in 60s or 70s, along with all these things, they might have even shown elephants, snake charmers and yogis roaming in the streets and so on.Same was the case with other movies portraying non-western cultures that got nominated, like, Black Panther, which many consider as a milestone in changing the portrayal of black people or African people in movies, but, there are many who have also accused it, promoting some level of stereotypes. The movie was set in a fictional technologically superior African nation of Wakanda, who posses advanced technology, that no other nation has, yet, somehow, they still follows outdated rituals and practices, death battle during coronation, usage of spears, a tribe whose men make monkey like noises, using white rhinos during battles, their soldiers literally fights like medieval-era tribal warriors, rather than an actual army of any modern nation. It was obvious that movie and even it’s source material was trying to portray a non-black man’s idea of an African superpower.When we look at the movies that got nominated from India, all three of them kind of fits in that typical white man’s perception of India, including Lagaan, which kind of reminds me of the golden age Hollywood films, depicting India and it’s culture, which has typical white saviour trope, here they have similar white saviour in the form of Elizabeth Russel, but more accurate, less racist, story from a native’s point of view.I don’t think there would be any change in recent times, even in this case…

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