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How long did it take to get to 10 rental properties from zero?

How long did it take to get to 10 rental properties from zero?About 9 years the first time.Here’s what it’s like.Well, the first 9 are really pretty easy. Under US banking laws you can personally carry up to 10 mortgages. Assuming you have a mortgage on the property you live in, you can buy another 9 with mortgages by coming up with the down payments and going through the application process.Keep in mind that this won’t happen all at once. No bank or mortgage broker will just let you pop in and finance 9 homes at once. You’re going to have to build up to it.Getting Started - Unit #1: (Year 0)Right out of the gate, if you can come up with the down payment (25%), have decent credit (think FICO 720+), and your Debt-to-Income ratio isn’t crap, then you’re a slam-dunk at virtually every bank in the nation.Unit #2 - The Litmus test. (Year 1)You need to be able to show a profit on your first rental. You need to show this through your tax filings. So, as soon as you file taxes and show that your rental is turning a profit, you’re ready to get your 2nd property. The process is the same, but you need to be able to neutralize the liability of the 1st rental’s mortgage by showing a profit. The game here is to make sure that both your credit and your debt-to-income ratio are improving.Unit #3 - Waiting for tax-time again (Year 2)Now you have 2 units, are we ready for #3? Well, at this point your regular banks won’t help you anymore. You have 3 mortgages and that’s about all they are comfortable selling to you. You need to find a mortgage broker that understands how to present people like you to lenders. So, same as getting a 2nd unit, no one is going to take your word for it, you need to show that you’re turning a profit in your taxes, but the mortgage broker will be in your corner fighting to get you money.Units #4–6 - Now you’re rolling (Year 3–4)Now your mortgage broker is really becoming your best ally. You no longer are beholden to proving your income by tax records. You will be able to show 3+ years of profitability running a rental business. You will provide executed copies of your leases to the mortgage broker so your cash-flow and profitability can be documented. Getting approved isn’t the problem, coming up with the 25% probably is.Units #7–9 - Reaching escape velocity (Year 5+)Your mortgage broker never makes you wait on hold and knows the names and birthdays of your family. You are likely sending them business and they really want to make sure you’re happy. You are now a veteran investor and as long as you haven’t made mistakes and dinged your credit you’re likely to have a score at 800+ and lenders treat your business like gold. You can probably close 3 deals in a single week as long as you have the liquid funds for the 25% down.Unit #10+ - Hitting the wall (Year 5+)Ok, the cheap mortgages are all gone. Unless you’ve seen large enough gains on your properties that you can do a cash-out refinance and pay off one of your other mortgages, you now need to look into private, commercial, or portfolio financing. You have 10 mortgages and no one can give you another mortgage as much as they’d like to. The rates will be higher reducing your margins, so deals will be harder to make work. You can do it, but this one and all that follow will be tougher that the previous ones.

How did the "London Whale" lose JPMorgan over $2 billion?

Disclaimer: I have traded credit but never systematically; this is not expert opinion. I personally took positions that may have been on the other side of JPMorgan's credit trades.It is impossible to know what caused this loss without further disclosure from JPMorgan. Based on recent market aberrations, however, it is possible to piece together a probable scenario.There is evidence that JPMorgan, to hedge its investment grade credit risk, aggressively put on flatteners on North American investment grade credits. Due to their size in the market, however, keeping the hedge in balance grew onerous. The hedge degraded into an outright long credit play that got picked off by traders as news of the "whale" in the markets got around.UPDATE: This is pretty much what happened [5]Credit spreads slope up in normal timesCredit Default Swaps give exposure to credit risk. If we reference a bunch of these we have a credit index. Being long (short) a credit index means you are buying (selling) protection, i.e. short (long) the underlying credit.The CDX North America Investment Grade CDS index slopes upwards, indicating credit risk increases with timeSource: http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/credit-and-loan-indices/cdx/cdx-prices-iframe.page?Credit spreads shift up and then invert in stressful timesIn times of distress the curve shifts up and inverts (looks like L instead of Γ). Like this:Italy's yield curve inverts after too much bunga bunga [1]Up because the entity became riskier and so it should cost more to insure against its default. Invert ostensibly because "there’s a hell of a lot of downside to contemplate now, but if the concerned entity can get over all that, maybe things will be OK again" [1]. My less generous explanation is everyone starts trying to sell but the contrarians buying are mostly doing so on the short end.Buy flatteners if things will get fucked up (and if you're cheap)You're a bank with investment grade loans and want to hedge the risk of them going belly up. You could buy protection on each issuer, but that would be messy.You could also go long the credit index. Let's look at our NA IG curve again. Going long on the 5Y would cost you 103 bps.What if you could do this cheaper? Say, by selling something else while you buy your credit condom? Going long the 5Y and short (selling protection) on the 10Y (131 bps) in a 3:1 ratio will cost you around 60 bps. This trade - a long short-date position funded by selling long-dated protection - is called a flattener. It is a cheap (read: leveraged) credit trade.Flatteners do well when we expect the curve to flatten and really well if we expect it to invert. There's also the little benefit of them being more palatable from an accounting perspective than straight credit protection but we'll ignore that part.The trick is keeping long/short proportion balanced - if that hedge ratio breaks down the trade will degrade into an outright long or short position on the index.Tranches make your leveraged credit trade extra spicyDV01 is the sensitivity of a trade to the credit markets (the credit equivalent of an option trader's delta). A trade with DV01 = 0 is relatively neutral to small credit market moves. Because it's a linear approximation of a non-line curve, however, a low DV01 trade needs to be re-hedged whenever the market moves. Because sudden small moves have little effect but sudden large moves have a big effect low DV01 trades, like flatteners, are long convexity.There is a technique called tranching which slices a structure by risk. Credit tranches allow one to create more precise convexity plays. The NA IG Series 9 (IG9), released right before Lehman Brothers went Greece, is the most liquid credit tranche market of its kind.Matt Levine at Dealbreaker gives an example of a trade using credit index tranches that is appealing (note the non-linearity):There is much complexity swept under the rug here but the concept is a bet something like this:Take 100 companiesFor each one that goes bankrupt, you pay me $2For the first five that go bankrupt, I’ll pay you $1 eachFor the next five that go bankrupt, I’ll pay you $3For the next ten that go bankrupt, I’ll pay you $5If more than 20 go bankrupt, you don’t get any more – I’ve paid you the max of $70.You lose a bit but not a lot if things stay good, you break even if things go mediocre, and you do great if things are really bad. [2]Tip for champions: when being sneaky, don't buy the whole marketYou may remember stories about the "Whale" in London from a few months back. Essentially, a bunch of credit and assorted derivs traders were looking at a chart like this:Skew (index theoretical value less index value) as percentage of indexSource: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/11/996131/too-big-to-hedge/And thinking WTF. If your jaw doesn't drop slightly from that graph Zero Hedge sums it up nicely:This is akin to looking at the 500 names in the S&P 500 - weighting them and seeing the S&P 500 index should trade at 1200 but it is trading at 1400 [3]Somebody was selling massive amounts of protection to the point that the IG9 deviated significantly from its constituents - there is evidence that this was JPMorgan. If you saw something like this and could afford to sell liquidity you'd arbitrage it. And people did [4]. When the skew failed to converge we initially thought somebody was manipulating the market.Size pins JPMorgan to losing, linear tradesIt has been speculated that there was a model error [2] or that the CIO turning the treasury into a proprietary trading unit [3]. In light of limited information we shall assume the simplest explanation: the cost of moving out of or even properly re-balancing a position of the CIO's size pinned JPMorgan to its trade. As the long leg (selling protection) ran ahead of the short (buying protection) the trade behaved asymptotically, i.e. like a plain credit play. All in time for Greece ringing in the new quarter Kim Jong style.UPDATE: We now have clarity into why JPMorgan got pinned to their trade:But then in December, the European Central Bank unleashed a tidal wave of liquidity into markets, triggering what some analysts called the “mother of all credit rallies”.The two legs of JPMorgan’s trade did not move according to the relationship the bank had expected, meaning the position became imperfectly hedged. Like many credit models before it, JPMorgan appeared to misjudge correlation – one of the hardest market phenomena to accurately capture in mathematics.In order to try and stay risk neutral, the dynamic hedge required even more long protection to be sold. The bank continued to write swaps on the IG.9, causing a pricing distortion that was spotted by more and more hedge funds seeking profit. [5]Eventually, as stated above, the size of the position made keeping it in balance grew "unwieldy".[1] http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/10/741011/italian-cds-curve-inverts-and-who-made-money/[2] http://dealbreaker.com/2012/05/the-tale-of-a-whale-of-a-fail/2/[3] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jpm-staring-another-3-billion-loss[4] http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/05/11/hedge-funds-profit-as-j-p-morgan-sees-losses/[5] http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6197eb2a-9f64-11e1-8b84-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1v5WjmddN

What should you do if you you’ve written a screenplay but also want to direct it?

I have written a script which I so want to direct. but.Production houses have their own teams and are looking to take the script off ur hand.Producers are not too confident that you can deliver as a director even though your script is good.Financer would like a known name rather than back a newcomer.But f u r sure sure u should sell it as a twofer but as a single unit. That you want to make a movie.

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