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First, only about 60% of the Czech border is made of German-speaking nations, namely Germany and Austria. The rest are Slavic nations, Slovakia and Poland.If Slovakia were included into Czechia (like in Czechoslovakia), the border with Slovakia would disappear but the Polish border would become (and used to be) much longer (it was he longest border of Czechoslovakia) and there would be a new border with Hungary and Ukraine, so German-speaking nations would be (and were) minority.But yes, it is true that Czechia is a promontory into the German speaking sea.I think that there are three main reasons why Czechia hasn’t shrunk in recent 1,000 years:The mountains, basically the “Sudetes” that appear in the once explosive political term of the “Sudetenland”, divide Bohemia from the German-speaking lands. You may see the mountains on the satellite pictures (the highest peak is about 1602 meters high, so it’s neither great mountains, nor tiny hills), it is the “circle” on the left (so much for the claims by the astronauts that they can’t see any divisions between nations from the outer space!). So the “logistic” distance from Austria, Bavaria, and Saxony is much higher than the direct geometric distance which has helped the protection of the Czech territory for 1,000 years (the lowlands, e.g. around Domažlice, had some special folks whose task was to defend, the Chodové people). Switzerland’s continued independence has some similar reasons including this one (because they have the Alps).Since 850 AD or so, Czechs were flexible, pragmatic, and mostly peaceful towards the larger neighbor (or neighbors, depending on whether you saw the numerous kingdoms or republics as a whole, or as many separate entities). Sometimes the flexibility of Czechs was enhanced to a downright servility and submissiveness. Czech kings (and, previously, dukes of Bohemia) have often been or considered themselves full-time or part-time players in the internal German political affairs. At some decisive moments, they picked the winning side and the Kingdom of Bohemia has enjoyed the status of the only genuine, de facto kingdom that had an autonomous status within the Holy Roman Empire (i.e. within Greater Germany).Whenever Czechs and their bare survival or at least cultural identity were really existentially threatened, they did something clever. So the late 18th century Czech National Revival has saved the Czech language and by 1850 or so, Czech became the elites’ languages on our territory. Also, during the First World War, Czechs could see that Austria would lose and our representatives negotiated the independence with the Western powers. Similarly, we joined and helped the allies in the Second World War. By their political distance from the German-speaking countries, Czechs (or the Czech political elite in the exile) ended up as winners of both world wars while Germany and Austria were losers in both cases. That has helped to extend our national existence at least by one more century.Czechia is still threatened by the larger neighbor. I mentioned the submissiveness. Well, there exists a whole school of political thought in Czechia (a minority but a minority that is large enough to be relevant, especially after some support from certain expansionist circles in Germany or Austria) that would basically welcome some direct control of Germans over our territory if not the downright Germanization.

I am going to write this anonymously in order to make sure if I ever go back to China I won’t end up in one of those very camps I’m writing about.First off, utmost respect to Shawn for trying to draw attention to this issue. Putting people in camps against their will for any reason, benevolent or not is wrong and against their rights.Things that I believe are wrong in Shawn’s reportsWell first off, the 1 million number is false. I know this because the source used is extremely unreliable, I even spent quite a lot of time analyzing this.Here is my analysis of said figure:The original figure of 1–2 million Uyghurs being held in camps comes from the Parallel Submission to the Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) 96th Session, 6–30 August 2018 by the World Uyghur Congress (WUC), which states:China has been operating political indoctrination camps (also called ‘re-education’ centers, holding an estimated one million Uyghurs (and a minority of Kazakhs) in July 2018This sources to a report done by the Washington Post which states:Between several hundred thousand and more than 1 million Muslims have been detained in China’s mass “reeducation” camps in the restive province of Xinjiang, Adrian Zenz of the European School of Culture and Theology in Korntal, Germany, said in a report released Tuesday. Zenz is a leading authority on the current crackdown in Xinjiang.Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/former-inmates-of-chinas-muslim-re-education-camps-tell-of-brainwashing-torture/2018/05/16/32b330e8-5850-11e8-8b92-45fdd7aaef3c_story.htmlThis article sources to a article by the Jamestown InstituteWhile there is no published data on re-education detainee numbers, information from various sources permit us to estimate internment figures at anywhere between several hundred thousand and just over one million. The latter figure is based on a leaked document from within the region’s public security agencies, and, when extrapolated to all of Xinjiang, could indicate a detention rate of up to 11.5 percent of the region’s adult Uyghur and Kazakh population (Newsweek Japan, March 13).Which sources to a random Japanese article: ウイグル絶望収容所の収監者数は89万人以上Which sources to a random TV station in Turkey. No primary source, no documentations, basically out of thin air.Not exactly a reliable source…As you can probably see here, the 1 million figure is indicative of a lot of western reporting about China, many times they may get the context right but they exaggerate things to such a large proportion that it becomes unbelievable to basically anyone who actually tries to verify said claims.The only other 1 million source I’ve been able to find is based on 8 interviewees, yes you heard that right, 8 interviewees are supposedly a reliable source on the number of people held in camps.(I can’t believe that people are using this article as a legitimate source)I’m not even gonna begin with some of the claims of “3.5 million Uyghurs” made by several prominent Uyghur independence figures in the west. Radio Free Asia is the usual source of these claims and are likewise guilty of such re-publishing of sources until it’s diluted to the point that people actually think it is a real primary source. (I’ve seen blogposts republished on RFA used as “on the ground evidence”)How many people have been arrested?Now, Shawn doesn’t actually make any estimates on how many people are in the camps. He suggests and heavily implies a figure of 1 million but you can’t tell how many people are in a camp based on satellite imagery alone. I’ve provided my estimates below:Based on my estimates based on arrest figures (which increased quite a lot in Xinjiang), the logistics of transportation, food costs and the budget increases for security in Xinjiang. I will estimate that perhaps up to 500,000 people are held at a time inside these camps (That is a really high figure to, I’m thinking more like 200,000–300,000 at a time is my most reasonable estimate). The logistics of holding 10% of the Uyghur population in China while suppressing a potential revolt as well as the relative lack of evidence of such a large number of people being held calls into question the validity of the one million+ figure for sure.The sudden boost in adverts indicates that there is a very big security crackdown occuring in Xinjiang.Assuming that the rate of arrest remains similar, we can probably deduce that there are around 150–200 thousand arrests that are a part of the new security crackdowns. Not all of the people will be sent to the camps of course. Assuming that 100 thousand of that 150 thousand are sent to the camps, it arrives to my figure of around 200–300 thousand in the camps at one single time.This also fits into the logistical expansion of the camps to accommodate the influx of new prisoners, at this point there is simply too little evidence to suggest a number higher than 500,000 IMO.Is there systematic torture?I believe that there are probably cases of torture, beatings and obvious harsh treatment of prisoners but I don’t believe that it is systemic as in if you end up in a camp you will 100% definitely face such things. The reasons why is that in all accounts of these things occurring tend to be very basic police brutality type things, very little mention of more sophisticated torture technology like electric chairs, I’m thinking that in some camps there will be, some you will not be tortured. I think it’s very much reliant on who the camp commander is and how willing he/she is to use torture as an instrument of punishment.Do people get released from the camps?I do believe that at some point you do get released from the camps unless you are being held for leverage by the CCP for one of your relatives being abroad, I heard some independence activists who had many close family members imprisoned as a leverage so they don’t go too far in their activities. One guy claimed up to 100 of his family members are being held in camps (Salih Hudayar) but he also claimed 3.5 million Uyghurs were being “slaughtered” in East Turkestan, he likely isn’t a reliable source of information to be honest.How do people get put in the camps?The intensive electronic surveillance system implemented in Xinjiang indicates that if you even have a wiff of anti-China sentiment in your internet history, your chances of getting sent to one of these camps increases quite a lot, my theory is that based on your “social-credit” score implemented by the Chinese government, at some point if you are deemed as too high of a risk you will be sent here. If you espouse any actual separatist talk good luck to you.Many cases there are times when people get arrested for actions many years back, keep in mind I am getting this from RFA again, so take this with a grain of salt. Actions can range from protesting, making ruckus about ethnic tensions, or even making warnings to local government officials about future possible ethnic tensions if the CCP’s misguided policies continue.Someone anonymous's answer to Are Uighur really being treated differently in China?Essentially, if you are suspected of being a high enough risk to stability, you will be put in a camp as soon as they suspect you will take any action regardless if you were or not.Is it a genocide?No, even RFA only reported around 4 deaths. Even assuming that this is the 4 deaths that actually were manged to be made public, you would have to really really stretch to claim that there is some sort of actual genocide here.The scale of killing required to qualify this as a genocide is way too large to hide in the modern information age, even the RFA and other sources are hesitant to label it as genocide.What is the purpose of the camps?I believe they are dual purpose, first purpose would to be to hold people deemed as separatists in custody so they can’t make trouble. Social media such as Weibo, WeChat and others are likely under heavy surveillance and any indication of separatist tendencies will be severely punished.The second purpose would to be to force Uyghurs in Southern Xinjiang (where most of the prisoners seem to come from) to learn Mandarin, it is basically analogous to the Indian boarding houses in Canada during the 1800’s.ConclusionBe sure to take all of my answer with a grain of salt, it’s very hard to find evidence of anything really. All I can say is that these camps are definitely not the right thing and are actually actively harming the goal of assimilating Uyghurs in the long run rather than helping it.I’ve tried my best to provide an objective answer based on verifiable and reliable sources rather than leaning to obviously biased sources such as RFA or Global Times.

Get ready for a long one, boys and girls.It depends on what you mean by winning…If we’re looking at deposing Joffrey and extinguishing the Royal Branch of House Baratheon-Lannister, then no. Too many riches, lords, and men support them for the Stark/Tully coalition to mount an offensive. They’d be enveloped, surrounded and destroyed.If we’re looking at the independence of the North, then its possible, but Robb is going to have to do some unpleasant/unhonorable things, because here’s the ultimate goal:Getting behind Moat Calin and fortifying for the Winter.If Robb can do that, then he’s pretty much untouchable.So, how do we get there?First things first, don’t tie the knot with Talisa/Westerling and marry Roslin Frey like he agreed to. That stupid marriage should never have happened in the first place.Eddard Stark survived the stain of a “bastard.” Robb can too, which may not even be a problem since Westerling never became pregnant (probably due to her mother). Robb marrying for love was so out of character that we’re just setting aside the Talisa incident.Next, its time to get the Northern Alliance some breathing room for their strategic retreat.Robb needs to recognize that Edmere is an idiot and needs his uncle Blackfish to watch over his shoulder the whole time. If he does so, then Robb’s cannon plan in season 3 works. The Mountain and his Ravagers are drawn out of Harrenhal, surrounded and annihilated.That not only deals a blow to Lannister prestige, but also wins them brownie points with the Brotherhood Without Banners. Enough so that maybe they let Robb know that they have his sister.That with a nice sack of cash will firmly place the BWB on the Stark side, so long as Robb can keep his Northmen in line. They are going to be the Stark’s eyes and ears as well as turn the Riverlands into the Spanish Ulcer for the Lannisters.Which brings us to Karstark.At the beginning of season three, the Kingslayer is gone, so Karstark goes berserk as a result. Instead of beheading the man, Robb should parlay with him instead. Use his anger to help with the retreat, while at the same time, put him in overwhelming situations where a stray arrow or well-timed blade may get through his guard.In other words, suicide by Lannister.Karstark won’t notice, he’s too bloodmad, his focus will solely be on killing Lannisters. The problem will eventually resolve itself. And if not, mayhaps the BwB can help, for another sack of cash of course.So now Robb has his space.The BwB and Karstark are disrupting the Lannister/Tyrell logistics, inflicting lop-siding losses on demoralized and green Lannister/Tyrell levies (most of Lord Tywin’s professional force was either wiped out at the Whispering Woods or at Blackwater and the Tryrell “impressive” force of 80,000 are farmhands who’ve never seen a blade in their life).Now comes the hard part, withdrawing the Riverlords and what’s left of their men behind the Moat.After two years of war, the Riverlords have maybe 15–20 thousand men left. Add on to Robb’s own 15,000 Northmen, and Robb can command an impressive 30,000 battle hardened soldiers.And every one of those men are needed in the North:To remove the Ironborn.To fortify the Moat, the White Knife, and the Stoney Shore.To deal with the Wildlings, Stannis, and ultimately, the White Walkers.But the Riverlords are stubborn. They don’t want to abandon their homes to the Lannisters. Who would? Moreover, to abandon their homes to fight a supposedly Northern problem? That’s adding insult to injury.Hence why marrying Roslin is so important. It means that Robb can’t just pack up and go home. He is now permanently tied to the survival of the Riverlands.The marriage carries a promise: that Robb will return. Just as Doug MacArthur returned to the Philippines.Combine that with parting with 5000 men to garrison the strategic and symbolic castles throughout the Riverlands (Riverrun, Oldstones, The Crossroads, the Twins, and Seagard), Robb and the Tullys command the displayed area:With all three forks of the Trident under the Stark Banner, the Starks can send constant supplies, provisions, and ferry BwB raiding parties. The long-ships they need to navigate the forks can easily be supplied by the ironwood of House Forrestor and designed by captured Ironborn in exchange for clemency.In cannon, The Blackfish claimed that Riverrun could hold out for two years, and that was with an unprepared Riverrun. With a proper strategic retreat, a proper supply route along the three forks, that time frame for Riverrun and all other hard nuts in this system could be raised to near indefinite, or at least until Winter hits.Until Gunpowder came around, it was almost nearly impossible to take castles. The loss of life in an assault was just too much for farmhand levies. The only way to break a castle is through a siege, and well supplied Trident prevents such castles from starving out.So, by leaving behind say 5000 men, using the Lannister plunder Robb acquired from his expedition west for payment and loyalty, maximizing the continued harassment and disruption by the BwB, and taking advantage of impetuous, but slow thinking lords looking for glory and blood, the Riverlands could hold out until at least Winter, at which points all sides would have to retire.Its a stalling game, basically.Now, with that secured, Robb will then take the remaining 10–15 thousand Rivermen with him North to deal with the Ironborn. Which is a piece of cake, since most already left for the Kingsmoot, and while being incredibly skilled sailors and marines, fighting on the Green Land makes them worthless.Winterfell is secured (unfortunately still razed), the North is liberated, and the Southern choke points are fortified with the Rivermen:The warmer climate is better suited for them.It keeps them close to the Riverlands just in case the Lannisters/Tyrells attempt to make an incursion.That will then allow Robb to use his reinforced 20,000 battle-harden Northern Banner Army to force Mance Rayder into submission.Unlike Jon Snow, Robb will clearly explain to everyone that a potentially treacherous Wilding is infinitely superior to a definite enemy wight among the White Walker force.As for the Wildlings, Robb uses Jon Snow and Mance Rayder to keep them in line as they in turn man the Wall and reap up the final harvest before Winter sets in.As for Stannis, without a proper logistics network (The Nights Watch and the North will not help him), his mercenary army either dies or defects to Robb.Stannis is imprisoned, Melisandre either stays to help Robb and Jon or runs away.While the North digs in for the fight at the Wall, the events of the South happen as they do in cannon:Joffrey is murdered.Tyrion is blamed and flees.Sansa disappears to the Vale.Tywin is killed by his own son.Cersei single handily destroys the Lannister/Tyrell Alliance.The Faith Militant rises and imprisons everybody.Euron wins the Salt Throne and begins ravaging the Reach.FAegon invades and secures the Stormlands.With the South in such chaos, the incursions into the Trident diminish, as Lannister, Tryrell, Dorne, Ironborn, and FAegon are too busy fighting each other.The line of supply along the Trident is strengthened by the spoils of war that came with Stannis, and Stannis’ mercenaries are sent South to warmer climates and better opportunities for plunder.Sansa, who by now has become a political player in her own right, tricks Sweet Robin into declaring for Robb, and rallies the Knights of the Vale to the Stark Banner.Who knows, maybe even taking out Littlefinger in the process.So now Robb’s dominion looks like this:His army around Moat Calin and South now compose of:The ~5000 Garrison of Rivermen.The 10–15,000 Rivermen ready to march.The ~1000 Partisans of the Brotherhood.The fresh 40,000 Knights of the Vale.The 6000 mercenaries that abandoned Stannis.Meanwhile up North, Robb with his 20,000, the 50,000 Wildlings, and remnants of the Night’s Watch are ready to fight a grueling war of attrition against the Walkers at the Wall.And if Tycho Nestoris is aware of the White Walker threat, then Robb’s got Bravoos’ armory and the Iron Bank on his side as well.Robb doesn’t need to beat the South into submission. Not anymore. Arya is safe in Winterfell. Rickon is safe at White Harbour. Bran is missing, but NOT in the South, and Sansa now commands the Vale with Yohn Royce.All he has to do is hold out, using Darry, Riverrun, and the Oldstones as choke points.The Royal Navy was destroyed at Blackwater. The Iron Fleet and Redwyne Navy annihilated each other when Euron went South, so the choke points can’t be bypassed.Robb has won defacto independence.Assuming they survive the Long Night and the rest of Winter, then Robb can coalesce his forces and reclaim the God’s Eye Basin, thus maintaining his pledge and duty to the Riverlords and increasing his prestige.And the South will still be too divided to mount a proper counter offensive.A treaty is eventually signed with whoever is left and Robb wins his independence, and with the wealth of a restored Riverlands, and untouched Vale and revitalized North, becomes the most powerful man in Westeros.And if Robb listens to Roose Bolton more, explains himself to him, and rewards him for his victories, it may be enough to dissuade him from betraying him. After all, Roose is a pragmatic man, and will always back the winning side.Robb was no longer on the winning side when he married Westerling/Jeyne, executed Karstark, and lost Winterfell, the seat of his authority. If he plays his cards right, and doesn’t restrict himself with his honor, he could avoid the first two and quickly rectify the third, thus snagging victory from defeat.The South was unified with the marriage of Margarey/Joffrey and the iron hand of Lord Tywin. Kill the union and the Hand, and you kill the alliance. And then, the war looks a whole lot less hopeless for the Starks.And since Robb is now the most powerful man in Westeros AND has married Roslin Frey, the Late Walder Frey may be hesitant with his blade.But then again, Late Walder never did look beyond his immediate gratification.So I guess, its all up to him…