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1 Background: As Ezra Weston Loomis Pound (1885-1972) the American poet put it“Let us sing of perfection, my songsWe will get ourselves somewhat disliked…“As I may demonstrate. See Common Responses To Shimomuran Economics1.1 Summary This short article summarises the fundamental factors and lists the historical precursors underlying the development of Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics.There may be much more than a million words of historical and recent evidence supporting this fresh-to-the-West economics so I have adopted the strategy of listing some sources without fully quoting and illustrating their relevance.This article is a by-product of my ongoing University of Southampton PhD studies focused on The integration of Shimomuran with Wernerian Macroeconomics.1.2 Definition: Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics (SWM) is the integrated derived-from-observation economic model developed within the framework of the German Historical School of economics.See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_school_of_economics1.3 But SWM is a variant of the German Historical School of Economics. The fundamental tenets of that school were:“The historical school held that history was the key source of knowledge about human actions and economic matters, since economics was culture-specific, and hence not generalizable over space and time. The school rejected the universal validity of economic theorems. They saw economics as resulting from careful empirical and historical analysis instead of from logic and mathematics. The school also preferred reality, historical, political, and social, as well as economic, to mathematical modelling.”In general I am in almost complete agreement with these tenets, with one exception: a proper and thorough intellectual analysis of the economic history of the high-growth and socially advanced economies can produce a practical, realistic macroeconomics of general applicability. That is what I think I may have may have done.The specific realities of the Wernerian observation - that well funded SMEs are the major source of invention and innovation - can be married to the Wang-Anshi/Shimomuran Central Banks investment Credit Creation to produce a more perfect union of an all-factors economic model.1.4 The Historical Examples of Shimomuran-Wernerian MacroeconomicsThese are:The actions of Wang Anshi, the first investment credit economist, who was the Prime Minister of China under the Shenzong Emperor during part of the Song Dynasty, who created the first welfare state and Chinese economic dominance during the 11th century: the relevant dates are Wang Anshi (1021-1086) Prime Minister of China (1070-1076) Shenzong Emperor (1048-1085) Song Dynasty (960-1279) See Part 2 ofGeorge Tait Edwards's answer to What are major Chinese innovations?The Hidden History of Japan and its relevance to the four Tokyo Consensus Nations - see The Hidden History Of Japan and its Relevance To The Economic Miracles of the Tokyo Consensus ZoneThe life and times of Dr Osamu Shimomura (1910-1989)- see https://medium.com/@georgetaitedwards/dr-osamu-shimomura-1910-89-his-major-achievements-be2ad3e39e77 and The Master Economist and Poem for The Great ShimomuraThe rise of China 1975-2018 and its implications - see What did China get right in its economic and social development which the USA got wrong?1.5 The counter-examples of credit restrictions and the results of the Spenglerian Rule-For-The-Rich EconomiesOswald Spengler has argued at length in the first volume of The Decline of the West that the normal evolutionary development of all democracies is their capture by their strongest lobbyists, by their rich and powerful elite. It cannot be denied that this has usually occurred during the last thousand years in all previously high-growth states whenever an elite has taken over the economy and ran it for their benefit. Some notable examples are:In the Yuan Dynasty of China (1279-1368) in which the Mongols ruled for only their benefit, forbidding the Han Chinese to learn Mongolian and printing money for Mongol consumption but neglecting economic growth, road repairs and the rice terraces, thus leading to inflation and starvation and the shortness of the Yuan dynastyIn 15th century Conservative China where the previously great Chinese Navy was destroyed through financial frugality by the ConservativesIn the Thatcherist UK (1979-now) where finance was prioritised without any manufacturing policy thus guaranteeing the continuing relative decline of much of the UK and the destruction of the previously flourishing manufacturing industryIn the post-Reagan USA 1980-2014 where the relocation of the light passenger car industry abroad created worker poverty and the US eight rustbelt states located below the Great LakesIn the climax of Washington Consensus/Austerity Macroeconomics and the trend reduction of British and American life expectancies 2015-2018 See https://www.quora.com/What-does-the-practice-of-the-Washington-Consensus-of-macroeconomics-austerity-ultimately-produce/answer/George-Tait-EdwardsAll of the three major Western economies - the USA, the UK, and the German-dominated EU - have now fallen into the trap of economic decline identified by Spengler and have joined the ranks of the poverty-increasing, murdering-the-poor economies due to Conservative attacks on the living standards and health services and social support systems of of the poor.That was not inevitable although it is obviously historically usual.1.6 The National Economy Examples Where Local Banks Produced ProsperityThe first Western industrial revolutions: Scotland 1700-1800, England 1760-1880 SeeThe Scottish Industrial Revolution, or The Scottish First Industrial Miracle 1700–1800FDR’s economic miracle 1938-44 SeeFDR’s American Economic Miracle 1938-44, or the First Economic Bomb - The USA from 1938 to 1944 (Part 1)The economy of Japan 1945-2018 SeeHow Japan Zoomed From War Devastation into Prosperity 1945–52The economy of China 1975-2018 See https://www.quora.com/What-factors-contributed-to-the-rise-in-the-Chinese-economy/answer/George-Tait-Edwards1.7 The 4th industrial revolutionsThe Huawei development of G5 creates the possibility of a ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution” which has partially come into being through the computer integration of an AI/InputMinimisation/AbundantCapital/ KeyPartsIntegration/ IoT within the upgraded minimum critical path “pulse-incorporating” assembly line. Only Germany and China are implementing that possibility at present although it provides a potential upgrade path for all economies. See Industry 4.0 - Wikipedia which says“In essence, industry 4.0 is the trend towards automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies and processes which include cyber-physical systems (CPS), the internet of things (IoT), industrial internet of things (IIOT)[2], cloud computing [3][4][5][6], cognitive computing and artificial intelligence.”And“The concept includes:Smart manufacturingSmart factoryLights out (manufacturing) also known as dark factoriesIndustrial internet of things also called internet of things for manufacturing [7]“Industry 4.0 fosters what has been called a "smart factory". Within modular structured smart factories, cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes, create a virtual copy of the physical world and make decentralized decisions. Over the Internet of Things, cyber-physical systems communicate and cooperate with each other and with humans in real-time both internally and across organizational services offered and used by participants of the value chain.[3] The determining factor is the pace of change.”The economies introducing this industrial evolutionary upward step change areGermany’s Industrie04Made in China 2025 -see https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-first-MadeInChina2025-Computer-Integrated-IoT-ManufacturingAssembly-line-and-how-productive-is-it/answer/George-Tait-EdwardsThe German-Chinese comparison of the 4th Industrial Revolution is at my Quora site George Tait Edwards's answer to What is the comparison between the German industrial policy "Germany 4" and "Made In China 2025"?1.8 Three inadequate analysesDimitri Vittas and Roger Brown: A Response to Recent Criticisms July 1981 These two third-rate economists were employed by the Committee of London Clearing Banks to argue that the British banks were supporting SMEs and British industry when they were not. See pages 121 to156 [Section 5.2 :Comments on the Banks and Industry: Some Recent Developments] of my book The Role of Banks in Economic Development: The Economics of Industrial Resurgence, The Macmillan Press, London 1987.The George-Soros sponsored Capital by Thomas Piketty. This is in many ways a a parallel book to Oswald Spengler’s Decline of the West but Piketty’s book was financed by George Soros and provides many tables dealing with various aspects of the development of Western economies. George Soros has never funded any research into Asian economic development so Piketty’s book ignores Asian economic understandings. Piketty’s solution - of taxing the rich more - cannot be implemented because the rich have alienated much and probably most of their assets abroad for tax avoidance or evasion purposes (as demonstrated by the Paradise Papers) and who owns what cannot be determined.Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics,Cambridge University Press, 2008 by Yasheng Huang. This is quite a good academic book within its self-set limitations. It makes no reference to previous Chinese economic dominance under the first investment credit economist Wang Anshi nor to the great growth of China under the Yongle Emperor nor to theJapanese Dr Osamu Shimomura origin of the Chinese PBoC credit creation economy. I think these are weaknesses.1.9 Granger Causality AnalysisThis new statistical analysis of time series is the greatest advance in such analysis ever made. Its appropriate use is the best method of sorting the causative wheat from the background chaff noise in an objective, observer-removed and neutral basis.Most Western economic theory has not appropriately used this tremendous advance. It demolishes existing prejudices by demonstrating their irrelevance, and that might be a reason why.1.10 Professor Richard Werner’s use of Granger Causality CorrelationsProfessor Richard Werner has made the best use of Granger Predictive Analysis to determine the predictive relationships existing betweenJapanese Economic Development and previous investment credit creation by the BoJ andThe Japanese asset bubble of 1986-91 and the speculative credit creation by the BoJThese calculations form two of the major pillars of Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics.2 The economy of Japan1945-2018There were three phases in Japanese post-WW2 Economic policy: These were:No-cost BoJ investment credit Shimomuran Macroeconomics which worked in Japan from 1945 until 1985The BoJ speculative credit boom started in 1986 which fuelled Japan’s great property and asset boom and collapse from 1986–91. (You should note that Dr Osamu Shimomura (1910–1989 was unwell during 1985, and when I invited him to a 1985 Major Projects Meeting at Maudlin College Oxford sponsored by the UK Government’s DTI, Shimomura replied that his doctors had advised him that he was so ill it was unwise for him to travel outside Japan. I stIll have that letter in my thousands of papers of correspondence.)The post-1991 WCM period “Princes of .the Yen” sat on their hands and did nothing to create credit for economic development. See Princes of the Yen 2003 by Richard Werner.3 Granger Causality AnalysisThis is the most significant development in the study of economic time series, is Sir Clive Granger’s (and Robert Engel’s) Granger Causation Analysis.Clive Granger received a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science in 2003 (see clive granger nobel prize) and a Knighthood in 2005 both distinctions given in recognition of that outstanding advance.See Granger causality - Wikipedia and Scholarpedia’s Granger causality.The significance of Granger Causality is that, if properly conducted (and it is often not done correctly in the internet and internet examples) it removes the observer and any possible observer’s prejudices from the statistical calculation of causality and identifies the objectively-demonstrated valid highly probable, significantly correlated “Granger Causality” linkages between the emerged target and the predictor time variables within the mass of time series data. It also produces results that indicate no significant relationships between time series which previous economics theories might have held to be valid.So, in summary, the computer analysis of large time series can advise the researcher about which significant Granger Causality relationships exist within the data and equally significantly, which do not, and probability estimates are given for the emerging equations and their constants within the emergent formulae.4 Professor Richard Werner’s use of Granger Causality CorrelationsIn my view, my mentor and tutor Professor Richard Werner has achieved a great deal.. He has caused the BoJ to split BoJ credit creation into its productive investment use during the post war period and into its the speculative use 1986–91 and later. To the best of my knowledge and belief, no other economist has done that.Werner has used Granger Causality Analysis to discover the statistically significant relationships betweenJapanese post-war nominal economic growth and BoJ/Shimomuran Investment Credit Creationand between Japanese nominal asset values and BoJ speculative credit creation.The significant formula for Japanese nominal economic growth emerges asPercentage economic growth in Year 3= (a constant times BoJ Credit Creation in year 1) plus (a constant times BoJ Credit Creation in year 2) plus 0.45There is a similar emergent delayed Granger Causative relationship between Japanese asset prices and the BoJ speculative credit creation. These equations and estimates of their validity and error limits are both in Professor Richard Werner’s two books “Princes of the Yen” revised edition,Quantum Press 2003 and “new paradigm in economics”.5 These proven Granger-causation findings form two of the seven major pillars of SWM.Central Bank Credit Creation can be positively used forAccelerating economic growth, if a Convoy System transmits that credit to through secondary banks to industry and to local banks to fund roadside and rail and bridges system and an external (eg OBOR/B&RI etc) communication systemFocused R&D to accelerate chosen required innovative developments (eg Wang Anshi’s 11th century welfare state of orphanages, hospitals, schools and universities and loans for farmers and businesses) and FDR’s funding of the Manhattan Project and the US 1960s funding of the Moon Project and Obama’s Green Initiative and China’s Huawei’s G5 and G6 which puts faster communication in the internet, and the photon singularity Micius Satellite advances, etc, etc.An inflation-limiting policy of dividing wage and salary awards into two tranchesEstablishing a lasting quasi-permanent upgrade in the nation’s industrial, economic, cultural and social potential eg in Germany’s Industrie04 and in MadeInChina2025 both of which will be “the Fourth Industrial Revolution” based on the computer-integrated G5/IoT/Production and Services Integrated/ Abundant CapitalProviding a continual annual increase in the wage awards of the workers along with a supportive government social environment which provides excellent housing, full-scale educational facilities, nearly full employment and SME funding within a full-range investment credit economy of abundant capitalSee How China Surpasses The EU and the USA, or The Seven Pre-Requisites for High-Growth Shimomuran…There may be two possible negative downsides of Central Bank Credit CreationSpeculatIve credit creation with its destructive asset boom and decline leading to long decades of decline (eg the Japanese Asset Bubble followed by three decades of decline so far, and the August 2008 Credit Crunch with its decade of low growth so far)Constrictions in credit, like the Princes of the Yen sitting on their hands and doing nothing to accelerate post-1991 economic development or like the deadly Austerity of Washington Consensus Macro-economics and its useless CBs who do not understand economic growth at all.6 DiscussionIf you take the trouble to analyse the Tokyo Consensus Zone economies, you can observe the pattern:Japan 1945–85 SWM economics with high growth, 1991-onwards WCM and low growth:South Korea 1960–1980 SWM economics with high growth, 1981-onwards WCM and low growth:Taiwan 1965–1985 SWM economics with high growth, 1986-onwards WCM and low growth: andChina SWM economics with high growth, 1975-now.WCM is a failed economics. See https://www.quora.com/What-does-the-practice-of-the-Washington-Consensus-of-macroeconomics-austerity-ultimately-produce/answer/George-Tait-EdwardsThis Answer because it refers to internet sites is not an acceptable final paper to my PhD researches which will conclude with a stand-alone paper integrating the agreed four major papers in my studies.7 ConclusionsShimomuran-Wernerian economics is The Most Successful Economic Policy of all time.Here is a quote from the Chinese Han Dynasty (206-220 AD) which perfectly encapsulates my attitude to research and is the foundation of Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics.This rock is located outside the Renmin University of Beijing and the engraved inscription of the rock reads, "Seek Truth from Facts” and comes from the 260AD Book of Han. SeeSeek truth from facts - Wikipediawhich says“ Beginning in 1978, it was further promoted by Deng_Xiaoping as a central ideology of Socialism_with_Chinese_characteristics,[3] and applied to economic anid political reforms thereafter.”I have obeyed this instruction in all of my research.