D-Day Productions Scenario Events: Fill & Download for Free

Well, from time to time I keep reading answers that range from a total victory of the Axis to the negotiation of a possible capitulation under favourable terms just after repeling the invading force. I have extensively study WW2 and here is my opinion based on real time events of 1944.1)Germany was in the defense in the East. After the outcome of the Kursk offensive and the negative conclusion of Operation Zitadelle, the Wermacht received numerous costly blows. Nevertheless, it still had the ability of limited counter offensives and it was still deep into Soviet territory. It was bleeding badly the Soviet army, so in case of a successful repulse it would theoritically be able to reinforce the Easter Front Battle Groups. But….2) 18 days after D-day, the Soviets launched the highly successful Operation Bagration that was far more costly than the Battle of Stalingrand for the Axis. Army group center was almost annihilated. This took place independently of D-day so we have to accept that it would have happened anyway. Something which leads to…3) The Germans were able to throw the Allied expeditionary force in the sea. For simplicity reasons we will not analyse how because based on my knowledge it was simply not feasible. The best thing that would have happened to the Germans after the 4th of June was to immediately evacuate France and hold defence on Italy and behind the Rhine. So, the allied effort failed. Since this has happened, Operation Dragoon was never realised. Now….4) The Germans rush all their mobile reserves to the East and leave all the static divisions in the West. They also concentrate their production on Fighter planes and especially FW’s and Me-262 jets. Despite the disastrous outcome of Operation Bagration they would most probably be able to hold on Romania, the Baltics and on Eastern Poland on the line of Bug, Narev and Nyemen rivers. The war stalls here and most probably every Soviet effort bleeds extrordinary much (Like the Rzhev battles) because of the Jets arriving and the very heavy tanks which would by then have been produced. So….5) The war in the west is by far not over. Allied bombings are increasing in numbers and in ferocity. Because of the P-51s the Germans are mostly unable to stop the deep penetration bombings. So here happens the biggest difference in the historical ending…6) The war drags on. Germany does not surrender but it is most probable that it would be able to reach a separate peace with Stalin. For those who object this I want to remind them the secret peace negotiations after the Battle of Stalingrand using Swedish diplomats. Nevertheless, instead of using the Little Boy and Fat Man on Japan, the USA uses it on Berlin.

Getting Hitler to approve of the Alpine Redoubt would be admitting that the war was lost. However, if Hitler somehow ended up supporting the plan, then history alters quite a bit. I imagine it goes a bit like the planned American Invasion of Japan, known as Operation Downfall.The Scenario Goes…Hitler is somehow convinced by High Command that the mighty Wehrmacht should be prepared to make an epic last stand in the Alps to resist the uncivilized, barbaric Soviet hordes and the corrupt, capitalist Anglo-Americans. His generals conjure up Nordic imagery, knowing that he is a hardcore Norse myth fanboy. The Alpine Redoubt will be his Valhalla, where his best troops, battle-hardened and fanatically determined to defend the Fatherland, will await their impending Armageddon.How Norse fanboy Hitler is picturing the Alpine RedoubtFor those who don’t know about the redoubt (it is pretty obscure), it was basically Nazi Germany’s last ditch defense plan, assuming that the Allied Powers would overpower the Germans on all fronts. The Alpine Redoubt called for relocating the remnants of the Nazi Government and the Wehrmacht into the mountainous Alps, where the outnumbered Germans and their remaining allies could hold off waves of Allied assaults and bombings and try to secure some form of peace by exhausting the Allied Powers.Rough outline of the defenses of the Alpine RedoubtThe only problem with the Alpine Redoubt is of course Adolf Hitler. Hitler always let his ambitions and wild dreams get the best of him and hoped to secure a favorable peace for Germany by achieving a decisive, crushing victory against his opponents between 1943–1945, when it obviously wasn’t possible.One of the main reasons why the National Redoubt was chosen in the Alps was because the Alps is extremely mountainous and easy to defend. Eastern Germany’s only geographic advantage are its rivers, specifically the Oder-Neisse. Western Germany’s only geographic advantage is the Rhine River. Once the Allies cross the river, their tanks can roam free and cut down the weakened German armies.Front lines in March 1945, notice how the lines are roughly along the Rhine/Oder-Neisse?Let’s say the Germans start funding and building the Alpine Redoubt sometime after the Battle of Kursk (July, 1943), when Hitler somehow realizes that the Russians can no longer be defeated. Millions of German marks are poured into the project, with the Nazis proclaiming that an “impenetrable” national fortress was being built in the event of Germany’s defeat. Enhanced fortifications are constructed through the use of slave labour, specifically from Soviet PoWs and Jews. In this scenario, the Holocaust still continues on with killing millions of innocent people, specifically the Jews, but the more physically able are all moved to the Alps to build fortifications while less Jews and undesirables are sent to the Gas Chambers to let the Germans produce more weapons and bullets. Hundreds of thousands die in the making of the Alpine Fortress due to brutal and cold conditions in the Alps.It was not an uncommon sight to force able bodied Jews to help the German war industry.The Germans move their vital industries to the Alps and try to place them with as much anti-aircraft batteries as possible. The Allies realize this and try to prevent this from occurring by disrupting the process. However, the Allies won’t be successful until early 1944 and even then, the Germans will have ramped up production so that the Allies don’t actually have a strong effect until late 1944.The Germans begin to withdraw their best divisions, particularly SS divisions, into the Alps as the fronts begin to crumble in say mid-late 1944. The Nazis relocate key government officials to the Alps and begin withdrawing hundreds of thousands of troops from Norway to try to buy as much time for the Alpine Redoubt as possible. Piles of food and armaments are stock piled by the Germans while the Atlantic Wall and the Panther-Wotan Line/Dnieper River defenses are basically neglected. The Germans need all the concrete, steel and barbed wire that they can get. There are a few oil stockpiles, but the majority of the Redoubt’s defenders will be using artillery or anti-tank weapons. Tanks will be limited, most likely a few hundred Tiger I/IIs Panthers and Panzer Vs.The Atlantic WallPanther-Wotan Line + Dnieper RiverOf course, the building of the Redoubt has tremendous negative effects. First off, D-Day is probably going to get pulled off way sooner, possibly Spring of 1944 due to far weakened German defenses. The Russians probably reach Eastern Prussia in mid-1944, a few months ahead of schedule, while Romania and Finland switch sides even sooner, realizing that their German Allies have essentially abandoned them for dead.The Western Allies and the Soviets overwhelm the Germans in late 1944, with Berlin being taken in Jan of 1945. All that opposed the Allied Powers were demoralized/desperate German regular soldiers, Hitler Youth and Volkstrumn.Germany, May 1945. This is probably what Jan 1945 looks like for Germany instead by focusing on the Alpine Redoubt, excluding the dark reddish area in Southern Germany.As the final key German personnel are evacuated to the Alpine Redoubt, the bloodbath begins. Germany has amassed effectively all its reserves in the Alps. Battle-hardened SS divisions, Sailors who had not seen combat due to the shortage of fuel for their ships, remnants of the regular army, Pro-Nazi collaborators (mostly Italians, Croatians, Hungarians, French and a handful of Russians) and a few of the older, experienced Hitler Youth form the over half million strong army defending the Alpine Redoubt.The Western Allies and the Soviets simultaneously attack the Alpine Redoubt in April of 1945, but the Western Allies suffer terrible losses which they weren’t prepared for. D-Day had been relatively easy These are Hitler’s best divisions. Neither the Soviets nor the Western Allies were prepared to fight in high altitude conditions. Only the Americans and British troops who fought in Italy are prepared for this high altitude fighting. Tanks constantly break down, the mountainous routes are crammed with allied troops trying to get past German defenses.Hundreds of thousands of soldiers die in the slugfest. Progress is extremely slow, with the Allies struggling to dislodge entrenched German troops. The Allies utilize heavy artillery down to reduce Axis fortifications. Caves are collapsed, sealing in dozens of German defenders. B-29s rain destruction on the Axis industrial centers in the Alpine Redoubt. The Soviets send wave after wave of men supported by Katyusha Rocket Launchers and Su-85s to overwhelm the German defenders.For half a year, the Germans defenders put up stubborn resistance and hold onto the majority of their defenses. Although the Allies outnumber them nearly 15–1, the terrain has substantially reduced this numerical advantage. However, the end is near. Their stockpiles of ammunition are nearly exhausted while the factories have all been incinerated by the Allied Bombing Campaign. While the food supply is still feeding the men, it is only because more men are dying every day. The Allies will not give up or negotiate. Tales of the horrors the Nazis inflicted on the Jews and the undesirables have spread far and wide. There will be no mercy or peace with the Nazis, only destruction.In September of 1945, the Allies finally break through and the German defenses crumble. The remaining German collaborators and Waffen SS Units throw themselves en masse at the Allies who start pouring in through the gaps in the defenses in futile desperation, knowing that they will not be spared from the retribution. The remaining survivors surrender, knowing that battle is futile, while Hitler kills himself in his Alpine Bunker.The substantial changes in history will be…Intensive devastation of Southern Germany/Eastern Austria, cities will be thoroughly destroyed while many villages and towns might be pillaged by the Allies, especially the Soviets.Austrians forced to admit war guilt alongside the Germans because the last stand of Nazi Germany took place in Austria. Austria might even be partitioned like Germany was for the duration of the Cold War.The “Alpine Redoubt Theater” will replace the Battle of the Bulge in American history and will be remembered as the titanic struggle that ended the Third Reich. Due to excessively high casualties, especially when compared with D-Day, which would be easier in this timeline, there will be numerous films about the “Battle of the Alpine Redoubt” and it will be thoroughly dramatized.The Soviets might not invade Manchuria or will do so with far less experienced troops because millions will be held up besieging the Redoubt. The Chinese Communists might not have access to Manchuria due to the lack of Soviet presence, which will secure a Communist defeat or prolong their victory by years.

The German military strength was still enormous in 1944. However the Soviet military strength was some bigger.And more important, the Soviet production and military forces increased relatively more during 1943 and 1944 compared the German.However the German production in 1944 was generally doubled compared to 1943. In 1943 it was more than doubled comparing 1942.This happened in spite of the massive Allied “Strategic Bombing” of Germany that started in March 1943.The all time high German production in 1944 even continued in January and February 1945 until everything started to collapse in March.This is pretty important to bear in mind when considering the what if scenario focused by the question made.Many/most would relate the question to a periode in 1944 after the D-Day Normandy landing/invasion in June 1944.While the real point of time to consider is April 1944. By then the Red Army had taken back very close to all lost Soviet territories since June 1941. And had even marched into Romania and the former Poland of 1939.They had in south Poland reached the German - Soviet demarcation line agreed in Oct. 1939 when Poland was defeated by the two. This demarcation line can be seen as a dotted line on the blow map.Only a small pocket and strip of Soviet land around Minsk and along the Latvian border, was still on German hands by then.https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/April1944.jpgIt was objectively obvious by then that the Germans would be defeated by the Red Army alone. But it would cost. It would pretty obviously cost much to invade the German homeland. As the real war proved.The Germans were strategically defeated following the Stalingrad and Kursk defeats in February and July 1943 respectively. This strategic situation could not and did not change for the rest of the war. And would inevitably cause a German defeat. From July 1943 the German Eastern front war was a continuous retreat back to Berlin. And only a tactical war.However, the Wehrmacht was still a formidable military power. And the German production was at its all time high since the war had started. The Allied bombing seemingly bit less/little into the German production.It would cost the Red Army huge losses, probably close to a figure of a million fatalities, and more wounded, to also defeat the Germans tactically. This is exactly what happened in the real war, a million more Soviet casualties.An important issue to consider is that by April/May 1944 at least 95% of the total war in Europe was fought on the Eastern Front.This was before the Monte Cassino battle was won in the Italian Campaign, and only some 1/3 of Italy was liberated( where the Germans had only 6 divisions when the Allied landed on Sicily in July 1943. And increased gradually to only 25 divisions for the rest of the war ).The war in North Africa was very minor compared to the Eastern front war. The Germans had increased to only 8 and 9 divisions in North Africa in March-April 1943 just before their defeat in May 1943. This is compared to 180–200 German divisions on the Eastern front.Stalin knew in April 1944 it was the Soviet Union that had taken, and was still taking, almost the whole war burden to fight and defeat the enormous Nazi German military power.- Really why should Stalin/Soviet continue to take the main war burden to totally defeat the Nazi regime & Nazi Germany ?- What would the pros and cons for the Soviet Union and the Soviet people be for doing so ?- Why sacrifice more millions of Soviet soldiers on top of all the many millions already sacrificed during June 1941 – April 1944 ?It was obviously most relevant in this situation to evaluate whether to accept e.g. a continuation of the formerly agreed German-Soviet demarcation line through Poland. Or maybe in this upper hand situation for Soviet to demand almost the whole of 1939 Poland.And make a separate Soviet-German armistice/peace on such terms to avoid more war, more destructions and more million casualty figures. The Soviet Union was now the militarily- and production-wise strongest, and would remain the strongest during years to come. Stalin/Soviet had proven to Hitler/Germany they could not be militarily defeated.If this scenario had happened, would such a separate armistice/peace inevitably had involved also the western Allied.Stalin would as such of course have broken with the “Unconditional surrender” doctrine raised by Roosevelt. Anyway a controversial demand that was actually established from a mistake Roosevelt made in a speech. However a doctrine that Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin had agreed in Teheran in Nov. 1943.If the Soviet Union had agreed an armistice/peace with Nazi Germany in April 1944, would the western Allied had to take the whole war burden alone against Nazi Germany. Also the still necessary massive land battles were humans were shot dead and to pieces in hundred-thousands and million figures.Such a massive big land war did the USA/Allied never fight during the WWII.Well proven by the US total WWII casualty figure of 0.405 million soldiers ( 0.17 million of them lost in the Pacific war ), plus some 10000 civilians that were mostly merchant ship sailors forced into the military war.Britain lost 0.38 million soldiers, plus 0.065 million civilians.While the Soviet Union lost some 10 million soldiers, plus some 17–20 million civilians.Germany lost 5 million soldiers, plus 3 million civilians.These figures tells the whole story where the WWII in Europe was fought, and who defeated Nazi Germany.————————-It was a domestic political impossibility for the USA to fight a huge scale land war with consequent real huge casualty figures. A war like the east front war. This is the kind of war the USA/Allied would had had to fight in west if Soviet - Germany had made an armistice/peace in April-May 1944.If the Allied had been able to land any soldier at all on the European continent.Nazi Germany would in such a situation had moved the majority of their 150–200 east front divisions to the west front in France-Belgium-Netherlands-Denmark-Norway. And made the Atlantic Wall a massive fortification impregnable when defended by several millions of very war experienced Wehrmacht and SS soldiers.The consequence had almost for certain been the Allied D-Day landing two months later in June 1944, and the consequent since 1941 promised main second front in west, had been cancelled.This was before the Germans had lost the crucial important Ploesti oil in Romania, before the German synthetic fuel factories were bombed, and before the critical fuel shortage crippled the Luftwaffe and the Wehrmacht/SS motorized divisions from August - September 1944.This was before the Luftwaffe was defeated, and before the Allied had taken air superiority over the western European coastlines.This was also before the Monte Cassino battle in Italy was won by the Allied. At which time the Allied had liberated only some 1/3 of Italy.USA and Britain had consequently most probably also have been forced into an armistice/peace with Nazi Germany. Both would not and could not fight any massive land war that was still necessary to defeat Nazi Germany also tactically.Meanwhile the strategic situation would also have become completely different in favour of Germany following an armistice/peace between Soviet and Germany in April 1944.In April 1944 the atomic bomb was still more than one year into the future. And still most uncertain if a technical possibility at all.