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[Adapted from Christopher Black's answer to What do business people think of Donald Trump?]Here is a graph (from the Dept. of Labor) of total private sector employment in the U.S., including all of Trump’s latest numbers through April 2019, with all axis labels removed. Point to where you think Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 first took effect, signaling a shift from the “terrible policies” of Barack Obama to the new era when the “greatest jobs producer God ever created” started waving his “magic wand?” Then read on.Although many Trump critics focus on his emotional immaturity and his ethical/legal struggles, I would like to focus on the things Trump himself claims are his greatest strengths: his business leadership and deal-making skills.I run my own business and have quite a few friends and relatives who have led companies, some big and some small. (Mine is small.) The hope of many business owners like me, and our millions of workers, was that Trump would put American businesses on an even stronger path than the “Obama trajectory.” He would turn around our trade deficit, balance the budget, boost GDP, create an infrastructure for prosperity, and be the world’s greatest job creator.[*Many say cutting regulations is also important. But only if it gives their particular business a competitive advantage. Oil companies hate regulations that impede drilling or encourage fuel-efficient cars, but love those that impede wind farm or solar development. When you hear someone say “regulations are killing us,” 95 times out of 100 he means he just wants more government handouts and tax breaks than his competitors. Smart regulations can actually boost growth if implemented correctly. More importantly, regulations are our major instrument of corporate accountability. In short, “number of regulations eliminated” cannot be an objective measure of success.]When assessing a president’s performance as a “national CEO,” the question is not so much “how strong is the economy right now?” (partisans will take credit or cast blame to make their side look good) but rather “how is the president dealing with any current crises and laying the groundwork for future prosperity?” But of course, we can only look at the data in retrospect. It’s best to look at them in context, to get beyond the partisan boasts and talking points. Here are the numbers:[From U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics][UPDATE AUGUST 2020]Where does it appear that the “Trump economic miracle” occurred? Are there clear inflection points in the data that signal that Trump’s “magic wand” has cast its spell? Under Trump, did the budget deficit come down? Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 cause real wages to increase or GDP to accelerate? Did he “win the trade war?” Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 nudge the employment line from the “Obama trajectory” even a teeny-tiny, itsy-bitsy bit?When you actually look at the numbers, it’s clear that Trump’s performance is middling or sub-par at best. The cherry-picked data he and his cheerleaders put out, when put into context, plainly don’t support their claim that he is a business genius who “turned around a mess [he] inherited.”In fact, the data show precisely the opposite. It appears that Trump inherited an economy with some decent momentum, all the more astonishing after the “Great Recession” of 2007–2009. (In Obama’s second term, GDP growth averaged +2.2% per year—not spectacular, but remarkably steady and far better than what economists had predicted following the Great Recession, and well above the 1.58% average GDP growth rate of the post-Depression “golden era” of 1945–1960.) Take the employment chart at the bottom, which is the first graph put into context. If Trump were “the greatest jobs producer God ever created,” we would see an inflection point in the graph somewhere in Trump’s first two years. In fact, there is an incredibly strong inflection point on this chart, but unfortunately it coincides almost perfectly with the day that Barack Obama signed the Recovery Act in February 2009, weeks after taking office. (To be fair, much of the change in the employment trend can also be attributed to the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) passed by Bush in October 2008 and supported by both candidates for President, John McCain and Barack Obama. Senator Hillary Clinton also supported it. Bernie Sanders did not. TARP was the major driver of the huge budget deficits in 2009–2012, but it obviously succeeded in stopping the trend of enormous job losses, which was a much bigger problem.) Note that these are private, non-government jobs, so there’s no room for the “bigger government” counterargument. The unemployment rate has continued to decline under Trump, but only because the “Obama line” has continued.[You can be forgiven for suspecting that the last graph was faked, or at least manipulated, to make Obama look good. After all, if Obama’s employment numbers were that good, with a classic inflection point at the very start of his tenure, followed by a rocket-like trajectory, why wasn’t he Tweet-bragging constantly about it? (Never mind. We all know the answer to that question.) If you doubt the numbers, check them yourself. Go to the US Department of Labor Statistics website (BLS Tools), go to the “Employment” section, click on “Data Finder,” check “All employees, thousands, total private, seasonally adjusted,” make the range 2004 to 2019, download the Excel data (.xlsx), and make your own line graph.]But what about the Dow and GDP? Business leaders and investors want to see real changes in productivity and growth. As I write this, Trump has just started his 27th month in office—24 of which were with full control of all three branches of government, a “blank check” for Republicans—which is plenty of time to let his economic policies take effect. The Dow has gained +34.2% in that time. That is great compared to the –22.1% change at Bush’s 27th month, but middling compared to Obama’s +60.1% growth at this point in his presidency. Trump bragged a great deal about the 81 all-time highs for the Dow during his first two years in office, but since the Dow grows at a fairly steady 6-8% per non-recession year, all-time highs are not unusual. For comparison, after digging the country out of the Great Recession in his first term, Obama saw 91 all-time highs in the first two years of his second term. Trump has touted the 3% GDP growth in 2018 as “unprecedented,” but this isn’t even close to true, as the graph indicates. It seems almost anemic compared to the eight Clinton years. Even George W. Bush had TWO years of greater than 3% GDP growth, and he had the worst economic performance of any president since Hoover.It’s interesting to compare Trump’s economic performance to that of Bill Clinton, since Trump spends so much time trashing the Clintons and spreading conspiracy theories about them and the many others on his “enemies list.” Take your favorite metric—GDP growth, stock market performance, budget deficits, productivity growth, profit growth, job creation, balance of trade—and compare Trump’s performance to Clinton’s over equal time intervals. It’s enlightening to do your own analysis and free yourself from the propaganda coming from the corporate media and the White House. And it’s easy. Use BLS Tools, BEA Data, or any other objective data site. (Just stay away from the White House’s communications team or any politically biased media source, like CNN or Fox.) Based on the data alone, which one would you say is a truly great “business leader?” It’s a much different story outside of Trump’s Twitter bubble. [If you don’t have the time, you can look at Bloomberg’s thorough 14-point analysis of the economic data of all U.S. Presidents going back to Jimmy Carter. (It started this “presidential index” before Trump took office, so they’re not cherry-picking data for or against Trump.) As of late January, Trump ranked 6th out of 7 Presidents in terms of economic performance, ahead only of George W. Bush. Even Carter is ahead of Trump. Clinton is first, followed by Barack Obama, followed by Ronald Reagan.]According to one World Bank economist, the Trump Administration is following almost precisely the policies of the George W. Bush administration—tax cuts, increased spending, and deregulation, that led to the same conditions that produced the Great Recession. The numbers and trends are eerily similar.Perhaps we shouldn’t be so surprised, given that Trump’s personal and corporate return on investment (ROI) has been far weaker than—in fact, less than than 1/3 as strong as— a passive investment in the S&P 500. In other words, Trump has not provided investors with any legitimate reason to invest in him rather than the cheapest generic stock fund. Recently his net worth has certainly increased, however, as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which by several analyses has netted the Trump family anywhere from $22.5 million to $1.1 billion, mostly through massive cuts to the Inheritance Tax. This is an enormous benefit only for the children of billionaires.Trump’s Productive ROI is probably so low because, unlike self-made billionaires, he never had to impress potential investors. When all your money is inherited (apparently, Trump started receiving his $480 million inheritance when he was only 3 years old), you don’t need a stellar business model. Of course, being an heir doesn’t automatically disqualify someone from being a great business leader. John D. Rockefeller, Jr. and Thomas Watson, Jr. also inherited large companies and enormous wealth from their fathers, but they also provided strong leadership for their companies and became great philanthropists. However, it doesn’t appear that Trump is on the same path, particularly since his family foundation was recently shut down due to campaign finance violations and self-dealing.Many of the habits that Trump acquired as a private CEO are troublesome when projected on a national scale. It’s alarming that Trump is working so hard to hide his taxes and make his finances above the law (and even more alarming that the Senate and courts may let him get away with it). Strong companies don’t hide their numbers unless they are cooking the books. It’s an even worse sign that not a single American bank has been willing to lend money to Trump for over a decade, and that the only bank that has funded Trump (Deutsche Bank) is a known epicenter for international money laundering. (A disreputable bank might lend money to someone who doesn’t repay his loans because he gives them something more valuable. One theory is that, in this case, it is access to Russian oligarchs who need to offshore tens of billions in stolen cash.) It’s also a problem to have such a confirmed reputation for stiffing your own workers and subcontractors, and not just because bullying is such a bad leadership stance: it’s a clear sign that your cash flow is poor, which means that you don’t have a profitable business model.But maybe Trump is just not a numbers guy. Great CEOs can have different styles. Sometimes, vision and inspiration are better keys to long-term success than just a laser focus on profits and growth. If you can attract and inspire entrepreneurs now, perhaps you can ensure prosperity down the road. Unfortunately, Trump seems to have a great deal of difficulty getting America’s top CEOs to accept his leadership on his own Business Advisory Council. Apparently, he does not like to share the spotlight.As a result, he doesn’t appear to attract and keep the best people or to provide strong guidance for business leaders. His advisors seem to be chosen because he saw them on TV, rather than because they have any substantial expertise. Their predictions have so far been just more Trumpian exaggeration, and not the reliable estimates of the economic future that business leaders need to make decisions on capital investment and hiring.Perhaps most importantly, his vision for the nation is historically bleak. “Keep the foreigners out,” “my haters are losers,” “everybody’s after me,” “bring back coal,” and “no collusion” aren’t very inspiring rallying cries for American workers and entrepreneurs. Trump is not leading on the economic issues that voters care about most, such as long-term financial stability (rather than more reckless debt); a 21st century data and transportation infrastructure, an affordable first-class healthcare system, prosperity in the face of climate change, ensuring worker security in the face of accelerating automation, and expanding free trade (rather than destroying alliances and building walls).One of Trump’s biggest campaign promises was to “totally fix” the “disastrous trade imbalance” that was “costing us trillions,” and that his predecessors couldn’t handle because they were too “weak and stupid.” (Most economists and CEOs disagree that trade deficits are a bad thing, but let’s go with Trump on this one.) In January 2018, Trump started his tariff war (which exactly 0 out of 60 economists surveyed by Reuters agreed would “benefit the U.S. economy”) that he promised would be “so quick and easy to win.” It wasn’t. Actually, it’s much worse than that. It pushed our 2018 trade deficit to at an all-time high. (Before Trump took office, the all-time worst monthly trade deficit was $76 billion in July 2008, at the depths of the Great Recession. Under Trump’s “tariff war,” that record has now been broken FIVE TIMES.) In July 2018, Trump had to pay farmers $12 billion dollars out of the U.S. Treasury to make up for lost revenue. It’s an impressive failure by all measures, which probably explains why he’s not tweeting about it much anymore.Trump also promised to be a “great dealmaker,” as his TV persona suggested. Trump is actually correct (in my opinion) that Chinese currency manipulation, protectionism, and intellectual piracy are real problems for the world markets, and America should be spearheading the fight against them. But a dealmaker needs a plan, a backbone, a steady hand, and the skills to maximize leverage. A smart deal maker would have kept us in the TPP (instead of dumping it because—umm, globalism?) so that the U.S. would have a much stronger leveraging position against China. Instead, Trump gave control of the Asian markets to China and started a weak, stupid, and needlessly expensive tariff war. It’s like quitting the game, then trying to “win” by throwing rocks at the players. Trump’s personal weaknesses in these areas are apparent to anyone who observes how he reacts to even ordinary challenges. Those who work closely with him have noted that he has an extraordinarily fragile ego and pathetically short temper and attention span. He doesn’t do his homework and therefore is ill-prepared in negotiations to apply appropriate leverage or respond nimbly to setbacks. He is far too susceptible to flattery, so it’s easy for our adversaries to take advantage of him. Since he seems to take pride in reneging not only on contracts he signs with his business partners, but also on treaties signed by his predecessors, it’s unsurprising that our adversaries and friends alike regard Trump’s “deals” with contempt, and regard America as a less trustworthy partner.Trump oversells and underperforms. He tends to spin his deals and policies as “huge victories for America,” but at closer inspection (for instance Korea, China, Iran, the Paris Accords, and the TPP) they seem to be poorly developed plans that do little or nothing to make America great.It appears Trump was lying when he said he had a beautiful plan to replace Obamacare, and the “Infrastructure Week” Trump has promised repeatedly over his first two years in office (including this week again), has turned into a cruel Internet joke-meme.Top business leaders understand the value of promotion and even “showmanship,” but only when it’s accompanied by a grand strategy and hard work to build the product. So far, Trump doesn’t seem to have any great economic product and no grand strategy. Many of us were willing to give him a chance, but at this point we shouldn’t be surprised that the Trump White House is following the dismal trajectories of Trump Airlines, Trump University, Trump Steaks, Trump Mortgage, and the Trump Taj Majal. All glitter, no substance, and WAY too much fraud and debt. We can only hope that he doesn’t bankrupt America like he bankrupted those companies. [Update August 2020: Hope is lost.]The ultimate measure of any President who considers himself a “leader of the national brand” is the Anholt-GfK Roper Nation Brands Index. Ever since Trump took office, the U.S. has fallen below all of our chief competitors for the first time since George W. Bush left office. This means less influence, less investment, less credibility, and less power.If a CEO of a Fortune 500 company had this kind of record after 3 years, he would almost certainly be fired by the board. Trump’s inability to keep the US at the top of the Nation Brands Index hurts every company in America that depends on imports, exports, overseas sales, or foreign investment, which is almost all of them.Business leaders would also love for Trump to get the crushing national debt under control, because it puts severe limits on our ability to grow in the future and to deal effectively with any downturns or recessions. (Debt control, at least in theory, is the reason that so many business people are Republican in the first place.) Unfortunately, Trump is heading fast in the opposite direction. He’s racking up record debt, but building very little prosperity-creating infrastructure. [Update August 2020: It’s gotten much worse with the pandemic, and Trump has no viable plan.]In fact, the deficit problem is even worse for Trump than the graph above indicates. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the 2019 deficit will exceed $900 billion, and will exceed $1 trillion for every year beyond 2022. It’s one thing to run budget deficits during a recession to counter the collapse in global demand (as in World War II, when U.S. deficit spending helped extract us from the Great Depression), but in times of relative prosperity, it is reckless and puts future prosperity at risk. [Update August 2020: The U.S. is now racking up debt even faster. As with the Taj Mahal or Trump university, the Trumps and Kushners seem to be maneuvering to extract as much wealth as they can before the collapse.]Trump seems to be more interested in strong-arming the Fed to goose his short-term numbers than he is in planning for long-term prosperity. (The “Taj Mahal Plan.”) In order to safeguard economic stability, the Fed must stay free from political meddling. Trump’s nominations of Herman Cain and the Stephen Moore to the Fed show that either he prefers political cheerleaders to qualified economic leaders, or that the qualified candidates don’t want to work with his administration.This is the kind of destabilizing behavior that creates bubbles and crashes.Even though a majority of the CEOs I know are Republicans, many admit (reluctantly) that Obama did a much better job of promoting the American brand, strengthening trade relations with other nations, maintaining the stability of governance that businesses need to grow, building infrastructure, and, despite some policy disagreements (primarily about particular trade deals and domestic spending), leading us out of a deep recession with a steady hand, all while Trump was sniping at him from Trump Tower. By all relevant accounts, it doesn’t seem that Trump knows as much as he claims about tax policy, trade policy, budgeting, brand-building, or—most surprisingly—deal-making.Now that he’s in office, we can see how he operates, and we’re not impressed. Thankfully, most American corporations are not run “the Trump way.”

UPDATE: This compilation of best answers of 2013 is featured in Lifehack.271 Best Answers on Quora You Might Have Missed Last YearLadies and Gentlemen, I present you the much awaited (really?) compilation of some of the best answers of 2013. I have been working on this compilation for the past one month. I admit this wasn’t easy (= ridiculously time consuming).Note:1. I tried my best to include as many awesome answers as possible. Inputs for this compilation were from two primary sources,I do bookmark exceptional answers in my blogs regularly. These blogs were helpful.For the past one month, I have been stalking the profiles of established great writers hunting for great quality content.2. Only one answer per writer was considered for this compilation. Answers may vary from 'awesome' to 'super-awesome'. List given in alphabetical order. Number of upvotes were not given consideration. Bold names in the list represent top writers.3. This is not an official list from Quora. This list is not exhaustive. I would have missed many great answers. (please suggest edits to add more awesome answers to this list)I’m sure you‘ll love to read these answers. Happy reading!1. Aaron Ellis's answer toDo black people use heroin?2. Achilleas Vortselas's answer toWhat are some fascinating examples of ancient or medieval technology?3. Adam D'Angelo's answer toIs it safe to take a shower during a thunderstorm?4. Adam Mordecai's answer toWhy does some content go viral on the internet?5. Adrien Lucas Ecoffet's answer toWhy don't Einstein's descendants inherit Einstein's IQ?6. Alecia Li Morgan's answer toWhat insights do baristas get into customers based on their coffee orders?7. Alex K. Chen's answer toIs it true that insulin makes you age faster?8. Alex Song's answer toHow should I prepare for a job interview for a position in investment management?9. Alex Suchman's answer toWho is the biggest lying cheater in the history of pro sports?10. 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Thanks for the A2A.I am going to post part of an interview with a student who was president of the student union at Beida. This position did help her stand out when applying to top PhD programs in the US and it also helped her get elected to leadership positions when she came to the US too.**********************************************************************What follows is Part II of the interview with Fang, a student leader and scholar from China now enrolled in graduate school at a major research university. She served as president of her high school class and then decided to run for the top office of her University, Beida (also known as Peking University in the West), the most prestigious university in China.*********************************************************************************Fang visiting LibertyBell in PhiladelphiaAt Beida you again decided to run for the leadership position of the entire student body. What was that like?It was challenging and exciting. I had to network with many people to put forward my platform. I listened to the students’ interests and concerns and shaped my goals for the position based upon what I was told. I had to talk with many people in order to convince them that I was the best person for the job. It took quite a bit of time, but I learned how to campaign, strategize, and use my communication skills.Once elected, I found that there were many large issues about which the students were concerned. Working with my other union members we made strategic decisions. There were far too many issues; therefore, we need to create a priority list and then move forward on several of the most important issues. Once again, I found out ways of being a leader who uses the resources of the university, but most importantly the resources of my fellow students. I helped form a bridge between the students and the administration.What are some of things you and your fellow leaders did that you are proud of?One of the biggest concerns students had been the lack of a facility that was dedicated to student activities. In the US these structures are often called student union buildings. Groups can meet there to discuss plans and activities. We put forward a proposal and I am happy to say the leadership of the University listened to us and they have now built this facility. It will be a lasting legacy. We also brought forth some issues that improved the day-to-day lives of students. It used to be we had to carry 2 different key cards, one a student ID and the other for entry into our dormitories. We proposed creating a card that would do both and this too was adopted. This may sound easy but we had to conduct surveys, write reports, and then make formal presentations. These tasks are actually skills I will now use throughout my life. Finally, we also met with the President of the University. These meetings allowed us to voice student issues directly to the leadership. It was a great honor to be given the responsibility to create a meaningful exchange between the students and the highest-ranking university officials.I am a bit hesitant to raise a delicate topic, but I do want to know about whether you thought the administration was ever concerned about the political beliefs of the students. As you know, much of the student leadership surrounding the events at Tiananmen was student leaders like you. Did you get any sense that thee were any concerns about student unrest?The only time the administration was concerned about students’ reaction to a political event happened after the seizure of a Chinese fishing boat by Japan near the disputed island Diaoyu Dao in 2010. The administration encouraged us to let students know that protests against the Japan’s government’s embassy located in Beijing should not turn into anything that would bring negative coverage from outside media. Students love their country and wanted to show support but sometimes such protest would not be interpreted in some laces around the world as true patriotism and love of country. The administration wanted us to be able to vent our emotions and anger in a way that would be if not productive then at least not harmful. The administration seemed then and throughout my time as a student leader to be genuinely interested in the well being of the students. They were supportive of creating a BBS system through which students could voice concerns to a large audience. Finally. Some of the small academic departments within the university wished student who were in them to advocate for greater support. As student leaders we helped to raise awareness of the importance of these departments to the administration. This helped to create more economic and administrative support for these majors and programs.You have now enrolled in a prestigious PhD. Program in the US. Can you describe the learning curve you had to undergo academically and socially since you have arrived?I think the change not only comes from the change from China to the US but also from an undergraduate life to a graduate life. As a graduate, I focus more on my study and try to make my own contribution to the world. And I have to say it is more intense and more inspiring study experience here.I would say the life here is rather a gate to the world than only the US. Our department is quite exposed to academia around the world inviting speakers from different countries and sending us to different opportunities in different countries. My professors are from different places and my colleagues here are from Turkey, Russia, South Africa, Korea, and many countries. It’s a great opportunity for me to get to know the world that is not an experience I can have in China.How do you like teaching economics to a diverse group of undergraduates?I love to teach. I find that I can interact well with the students. When they discover a solution to a problem we high five and celebrate. Most of the students are quite good. They seem to care about doing well but also about getting an education outside of class through activities and I can understand this as I have done so myself. The only bad moment I have had teaching is when I heard a couple of students express disappointment that their teacher (me) was Chinese. I think there are stereotypes about what Chinese teachers and students are like so they judged me before the class even started. But the students I have had in my classes have given me very positive feedback and I think that I am committed to teaching well. In China, teachers are held in great respect, and I consider it my duty to provide the best approaches to active learning from the students.Where do you see yourself once you have completed your PhD?I have become quite interested in industry and have focused on this in some of my research. There are many issues surrounding how to improve productivity and how to ensure that companies create wealth for the employees and shareholders. I believe I can bring my intellectual expertise to a large company, but I also can bring my leadership skills to become a senior member to help the business grow and adapt to the inevitable changes and challenges that are always out there.First, I would like to thank Fang for her time and insights. Her willingness to share her words in an effort to inspire and educate others underscores her commitment to participate in a community of learning. As with a number of students from China I have known and posted about, Fang does not fit into the typical stereotype that many people have about Chinese students. I was a little surprised that Fang did not even hesitate to answer some questions about politics in China. In other words, I too have some assumptions about the country and the students that need some updating.Her self-confidence is not flashy, but comes across in the way she talks and presents herself. She is eager to share her knowledge with others. So too her desire to help others. She loves her country and she loves the opportunities she has had to study in the US. Her global view makes her much more marketable anywhere in the world.Just recently on the Beida homepage I saw that a former Beida student union president just become the youngest ever leader of an entire province in China. I think if Fang wanted to, she might have a good chance to set a new record in the not too distant future.