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How many of the people who have died from COVID-19 would have died (in the absence of COVID-19) from the flu? What is the difference between flu deaths in 2019 and 2020 (January – May)?

This answer may contain sensitive images. Click on an image to unblur it.Why pick just the flu, let alone just flu deaths in 2019 Jan to May.If you want to understand the scale of Covid-19 in terms of how many people the disease is killing as compare mortality rates in the absence of Covid-19 then I suggest you look at the “all-cause” death numbers for previous years and compare them to number of deaths we are seeing this year.In the UK, in the three weeks up to Easter 2020 ( 12th April ), “all-cause” deaths, i.e. every recorded death in the UK regardless of its cause, there were 17,000 more deaths than we would have expected in the absence of Coronavirus.“In the three weeks up to Easter, just under 17,000 more deaths were registered than we would normally see at this time of year, a record spike, most of which can be attributed to the epidemic. “ Coronavirus: The 'good outcome' that never wasIn the three week period leading up to the 12th April Covid-19 deaths accounted for just under 12,000 of those 17,000 extra deaths.23rd March there were 359 Covid-19 deaths,12th April there were 12,285 Covid-19 deathsUnited Kingdom Coronavirus: 211,364 Cases and 31,241 DeathsFor reference, in the UK there are normally about 12,000 deaths per week. ( Based on a UK population of about 67m, and 616,014 deaths registered in 2018 Vital statistics in the UK: births, deaths and marriages )So we have 17,000 extra deaths spread over a three week period in which we would expect there to be about 36,000 deaths total.So for the three weeks up to Easter, almost half ( 47% ) as many, more people died as one would have expected in the absence of Coronavirus.My understanding is that for a death to have been formally included in official Covid-19 death used in the worldometers link above, Covid-19 / coronavirus has to appear on the death certificate.It is also my understanding that the Covid-19 deaths number quoted above were revised on the 29th April to include covid-19 deaths in care homes and the community. Where as previously the UK government official figures were for Covid-19 hospital deaths only.Please also bare in mind that deaths in care homes and the community can take up to 10 days to be officially reported. Whereas Covid-19 hospital deaths would appear to be reported on a regular daily basis even at the weekends.If you really want to compare Covid-19 deaths to just flu deaths then:Please note the flu numbers are for England, not the UK.2014–2015 was a bad flu season and there where 28,330 deaths for the flu deaths year.https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdfAnd so far ( to the 9th May 2020 ) there have been 27,967 Covid-19 deaths in recorded in England. Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the UKAs for how many of those Covid-19 deaths might have been expected to die from the flu anyway, I don’t know.However, 17,000 extra deaths in a 3 week period, mean a hell of a lot of people are dying due to Covid-19, people who would not normally be expected to have died from the flu or all the other things that cause deaths like accidents or old age or some other disease or medical condition.And don’t forget the country went into lockdown at the start of the three week period leading up to Easter ( 12th April ).Hope this helps.< Update 12th May.Updated figures for Covid-19 Deaths in the UK up to 1st May“The Office for National Statistics said it recorded 34,978 COVID-19 related deaths as of May 1 in England and Wales.Adding previously released data from Scotland and Northern Ireland, the toll stood at 38,289 as of May 3, according to Reuters calculations.”UK COVID-19 death toll topped 38,000 as of early May: official dataSo far for 2020, in weeks 1 to 13 deaths were down a total of about 5000,“ However, between Weeks 13 and 18, 108,345 deaths were registered, which was 46,494 more than the five-year average. The number of COVID-19 deaths contributed 75.3% of the excess deaths when compared with the five-year average in week 18 (Figure 2). We are continuing to investigate the number of non-COVID-19 related deaths and will publish detailed analysis on this in the future. Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisionalSo the number of ‘excess deaths’ up to Easter ( see above ) 17,000 has now risen to over 46,000, for the 6 weeks up to May 1st.Of those 46,000 excess deaths, 38,000 are official Covid-19 deaths.As so the other 8,000 excess deaths, not officially recorded as Covid-19 deaths, I assume the overwhelming majority of them, have nevertheless been caused by the Coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to fight the pandemic.On the up side the number of excess deaths does appear to be decreasing on a week by week basis.>QAA:”How many of the people who have died from COVID-19 would have died (in the absence of COVID-19) from the flu? What is the difference between flu deaths in 2019 and 2020 (January – May)?”

Why is a single-payer, Medicare-for-all program so vilified by about 40% of people in the US?

Because the very large majority of adult Americans, inspite of Obamacare, are happy with their current healthcare choices. 55 million Americans have Medicare. They don’t want their care to become worse. 170 million Americans have medical insurance provided as a benefit in lieu of salary increases/bonuses from their employer. They don’t want their medical care to get worse.What is meant by worse? They don’t want to have the expericence that veterans get through the VA system, with long wait lines to the point of dying in the queue, staff who are indifferent to their needs, lying administrators, and even after all the bad publicity, they can’t answer one third of calls to their suicide prevention program. Report: VA suicide hotline calls went to voicemailFor another example of a poorly run government healthcare system, how about the Native American system. It’s almost the equivalent of no healthcare at all. Lawmakers Grill Indian Health Service Leader on Failing CareThey also don’t want the trade what they have for the healthcare systems in Canada and the UK that progressives love to tout because they are increasingly dysfunctional as healthcare costs in their countries also explode.That debate should be a quick one. Single-payer has failed spectacularly everywhere it has been tried. Patients subjected to such systems routinely wait months for care — if they’re able to receive it at all. And those delays can be deadly.Consider Canada’s government-run system, where “coverage for all” really means “coverage for all who survive long enough to see a doctor.” Last year, the median Canadian had to wait roughly five months between referral from a general practitioner and receipt of treatment from a specialist. That’s more than twice as long as the wait time was a quarter-century ago.In 2016, Canadians in need of MRIs played the waiting game for 11.1 weeks. Those needing CT scans stood in line for nearly one month.One report estimated that the spike in wait times between 1993 and 2009 may have been responsible for the deaths of up to 63,000 Canadian women.It’s no wonder that 45,619 Canadians left the country in 2015 to seek medical care abroad. As Beverley McLachlin, chief justice of the Canadian Supreme Court observed, “Access to a waiting list is not access to health care.”Patients in the United Kingdom’s single-payer system, the National Health Service, are also well-acquainted with waiting for care. In 2015, nearly 40,000 patients waited more than 18 weeks to start treatment, following referral. More than 13,000 people waited more than half the year. Those are the worst figures since the NHS began keeping track in 2008.According to one investigation, substandard facilities and long delays at 14 NHS facilities may have caused up to 13,000 avoidable deaths between 2005 and 2012.Australia’s single-payer system is a mess, too. A recent report found that more than 14,000 Australian patients waited over a year for elective surgery between 2015 and 2016. More than 7,000 either died waiting for a procedure or were unable to be contacted.Single-payer has even failed patients stateside. The federal Veterans Health Administration has lurched from scandal to scandal — and America’s military heroes have paid the price.In 2014, a federal investigation found that workers at the VA in Phoenix had been falsifying records to hide long waits for care. They did so to qualify for some $142 million in bonuses for keeping wait times to a minimum.As of October 2016, some 38,000 veterans had been waiting for more than 125 days for a doctor’s appointment.Some VA hospitals are still reporting false information on wait times. A report released this past March by the agency’s inspector general found that waits for new patient appointments for specialty care at the Hampton, Virginia, facility averaged 30 days. The VA officially reported average waits as just eight days. Average waits for mental health appointments were twice as long as the VA officially stated. Single-payer health care system is a failureThe UK and Canadian systems were developed decades ago and have had very slow improvement in infrastructure. Americans don’t want to be hospitalized on multi-bed wards. They don’t want to be delivering babies in bathrooms as has been reported in the UK. They don’t want to not have the option of dialysis or hip replacement (older people don’t get a hip in the UK or Canada unless they have a fracture, they sit on waiting lists) because they are considered by a government analyst to be “too old”.This edition of Waiting Your Turn indicates that, overall, waiting times for medically necessary treatment have in-creased since last year. Specialist physicians surveyed report a median waiting time of 20.0 weeks between referral from a general practitioner and receipt of treatment—longer than the wait of 18.3 weeks reported in 2015. This year’s wait time—the longest ever recorded in this survey’s history—is 115% longer than in 1993, when it was just 9.3 weeks.There is a great deal of variation in the total waiting time faced by patients across the provinces. Ontario reports the shortest total wait (15.6 weeks), while New Brunswick reports the longest (38.8 weeks). There is also a great deal of variation among specialties. Patients wait longest between a GP referral and Neurosurgery (46.9 weeks), while those waiting for Medical oncology begin treatment in 3.7 weeks. Waiting Your Turn: Wait Times for Health Care in Canada, 2016 ReportOne in four patients cannot get through to GP surgeryThe babies born in hospital corridors: Bed shortage forces 4,000 mothers to give birth in lifts, offices and toiletshttps://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2016-08-03/canadians-increasingly-come-to-us-for-health-care

Why is Turkey reluctant to fight against ISIS/ISIL?

This answer may contain sensitive images. Click on an image to unblur it.Research Paper: ISIS-Turkey Listby David L. Phillips, huffingtonpost.comAugust 12COLUMBIA UNIVERSITYIN THE CITY OF NEW YORKINSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF HUMAN RIGHTSResearch Paper: ISIS-Turkey LinksBy David L. PhillipsIntroductionIs Turkey collaborating with the Islamic State (ISIS)? Allegations range from military cooperation and weapons transfers to logistical support, financial assistance, and the provision of medical services. It is also alleged that Turkey turned a blind eye to ISIS attacks against Kobani.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu strongly deny complicity with ISIS. Erdogan visited the Council on Foreign Relations on September 22, 2014. He criticized "smear campaigns [and] attempts to distort perception about us." Erdogan decried, "A systematic attack on Turkey's international reputation, "complaining that "Turkey has been subject to very unjust and ill-intentioned news items from media organizations." Erdogan posited: "My request from our friends in the United States is to make your assessment about Turkey by basing your information on objective sources."Columbia University's Program on Peace-building and Rights assigned a team of researchers in the United States, Europe, and Turkey to examine Turkish and international media, assessing the credibility of allegations. This report draws on a variety of international sources -- The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, The Daily Mail, BBC, Sky News, as well as Turkish sources, CNN Turk, Hurriyet Daily News, Taraf, Cumhuriyet, and Radikal among others.AllegationsTurkey Provides Military Equipment to ISIS• An ISIS commander told The Washington Post• Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, head of the Republican People's Party (CHP), produced a statement from the Adana Office of the Prosecutor on October 14, 2014 maintaining that Turkey supplied weapons to terror groups. He also produced interview transcripts from truck drivers who delivered weapons to the groups. According to Kiliçdaroglu, the Turkish government claims the trucks were for humanitarian aid to the Turkmen, but the Turkmen said no humanitarian aid was delivered.• According to CHP Vice President Bulent Tezcan, three trucks were stopped in Adana for inspection on January 19, 2014. The trucks were loaded with weapons in Esenboga Airport in Ankara. The drivers drove the trucks to the border, where a MIT agent was supposed to take over and drive the trucks to Syria to deliver materials to ISIS and groups in Syria. This happened many times. When the trucks were stopped, MIT agents tried to keep the inspectors from looking inside the crates. The inspectors found rockets, arms, and ammunitions.• Cumhuriyet reports that Fuat Avni, a preeminent Twitter user who reported on the December 17th corruption probe, that audio tapes confirm that Turkey provided financial and military aid to terrorist groups associated with Al Qaeda on October 12, 2014. On the tapes, Erdogan pressured the Turkish Armed Forces to go to war with Syria. Erdogan demanded that Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Agency (MIT), come up with a justification for attacking Syria.• Hakan Fidan told Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Yasar Guler, a senior defense official, and Feridun Sinirlioglu, a senior foreign affairs official: "If need be, I'll send 4 men into Syria. I'll formulate a reason to go to war by shooting 8 rockets into Turkey; I'll have them attack the Tomb of Suleiman Shah."• Documents surfaced on September 19th, 2014 showing that the Saudi Emir Bender Bin Sultan financed the transportation of arms to ISIS through Turkey. A flight leaving Germany dropped off arms in the Etimesgut airport in Turkey, which was then split into three containers, two of which were given to ISIS and one to Gaza.Turkey Provided Transport and Logistical Assistance to ISIS Fighters• According to Radikal on June 13, 2014, Interior Minister Muammar Guler signed a directive: "According to our regional gains, we will help al-Nusra militants against the branch of PKK terrorist organization, the PYD, within our borders...Hatay is a strategic location for the mujahideen crossing from within our borders to Syria. Logistical support for Islamist groups will be increased, and their training, hospital care, and safe passage will mostly take place in Hatay...MIT and the Religious Affairs Directorate will coordinate the placement of fighters in public accommodations."• The Daily Mail reported on August 25, 2014 that many foreign militants joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq after traveling through Turkey, but Turkey did not try to stop them. This article describes how foreign militants, especially from the UK, go to Syria and Iraq through the Turkish border. They call the border the "Gateway to Jihad." Turkish army soldiers either turn a blind eye and let them pass, or the jihadists pay the border guards as little as $10 to facilitate their crossing.• Britain's Sky News obtained documents showing that the Turkish government has stamped passports of foreign militants seeking to cross the Turkey border into Syria to join ISIS.• The BBC interviewed villagers, who claim that buses travel at night, carrying jihadists to fight Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq, not the Syrian Armed Forces.• A senior Egyptian official indicated on October 9, 2014 that Turkish intelligence is passing satellite imagery and other data to ISIS.Turkey Provided Training to ISIS Fighters• CNN Turk reported on July 29, 2014 that in the heart of Istanbul, places like Duzce and Adapazari, have become gathering spots for terrorists. There are religious orders where ISIS militants are trained. Some of these training videos are posted on the Turkish ISIS propaganda website takvahaber.net. According to CNN Turk, Turkish security forces could have stopped these developments if they had wanted to.• Turks who joined an affiliate of ISIS were recorded at a public gathering in Istanbul, which took place on July 28, 2014.• A video shows an ISIS affiliate holding a prayer/gathering in Omerli, a district of Istanbul. In response to the video, CHP Vice President, MP Tanrikulu submitted parliamentary questions to the Minister of the Interior, Efkan Ala, asking questions such as, "Is it true that a camp or camps have been allocated to an affiliate of ISIS in Istanbul? What is this affiliate? Who is it made up of? Is the rumor true that the same area allocated for the camp is also used for military exercises?"• Kemal Kiliçdaroglu warned the AKP government not to provide money and training to terror groups on October 14, 2014. He said, "It isn't right for armed groups to be trained on Turkish soil. You bring foreign fighters to Turkey, put money in their pockets, guns in their hands, and you ask them to kill Muslims in Syria. We told them to stop helping ISIS. Ahmet Davutoglu asked us to show proof. Everyone knows that they're helping ISIS." (See HERE and HERE.)• According to Jordanian intelligence, Turkey trained ISIS militants for special operations.Turkey Offers Medical Care to ISIS Fighters• An ISIS commander told the Washington Post on August 12, 2014, "We used to have some fighters -- even high-level members of the Islamic State -- getting treated in Turkish hospitals."• Taraf reported on October 12, 2014 that Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat, a founder of the AKP, said that Turkey supported terrorist groups and still supports them and treats them in hospitals. "In order to weaken the developments in Rojova (Syrian Kurdistan), the government gave concessions and arms to extreme religious groups...the government was helping the wounded. The Minister of Health said something such as, it's a human obligation to care for the ISIS wounded."• According to Taraf, Ahmet El H, one of the top commanders at ISIS and Al Baghdadi's right hand man, was treated at a hospital in Sanliurfa, Turkey, along with other ISIS militants. The Turkish state paid for their treatment. According to Taraf's sources, ISIS militants are being treated in hospitals all across southeastern Turkey. More and more militants have been coming in to be treated since the start of airstrikes in August. To be more specific, eight ISIS militants were transported through the Sanliurfa border crossing; these are their names: "Mustafa A., Yusuf El R., Mustafa H., Halil El M., Muhammet El H., Ahmet El S., Hasan H., [and] Salim El D."Turkey Supports ISIS Financially Through Purchase of Oil• On September 13, 2014, The New York Times reported on the Obama administration's efforts to pressure Turkey to crack down on ISIS extensive sales network for oil. James Phillips, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, argues that Turkey has not fully cracked down on ISIS's sales network because it benefits from a lower price for oil, and that there might even be Turks and government officials who benefit from the trade.• Fehim Taştekin wrote in Radikal on September 13, 2014 about illegal pipelines transporting oil from Syria to nearby border towns in Turkey. The oil is sold for as little as 1.25 liras per liter. Taştekin indicated that many of these illegal pipelines were dismantled after operating for 3 years, once his article was published.• According to Diken and OdaTV, David Cohen, a Justice Department official, says that there are Turkish individuals acting as middlemen to help sell ISIS's oil through Turkey.• On October 14, 2014, a German Parliamentarian from the Green Party accused Turkey of allowing the transportation of arms to ISIS over its territory, as well as the sale of oil.Turkey Assists ISIS Recruitment• Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu claimed on October 14, 2014 that ISIS offices in Istanbul and Gaziantep are used to recruit fighters. On October 10, 2014, the mufti of Konya said that 100 people from Konya joined ISIS 4 days ago. (See HERE and HERE.)• OdaTV reports that Takva Haber serves as a propaganda outlet for ISIS to recruit Turkish-speaking individuals in Turkey and Germany. The address where this propaganda website is registered corresponds to the address of a school called Irfan Koleji, which was established by Ilim Yayma Vakfi, a foundation that was created by Erdogan and Davutoglu, among others. It is thus claimed that the propaganda site is operated from the school of the foundation started by AKP members.• Minister of Sports, Suat Kilic, an AKP member, visited Salafi jihadists who are ISIS supporters in Germany. The group is known for reaching out to supporters via free Quran distributions and raising funds to sponsor suicide attacks in Syria and Iraq by raising money.• OdaTV released a video allegedly showing ISIS militants riding a bus in Istanbul.Turkish Forces Are Fighting Alongside ISIS• On October 7, 2014, IBDA-C, a militant Islamic organization in Turkey, pledged support to ISIS. A Turkish friend who is a commander in ISIS suggests that Turkey is "involved in all of this" and that "10,000 ISIS members will come to Turkey." A Huda-Par member at the meeting claims that officials criticize ISIS but in fact sympathize with the group (Huda-Par, the "Free Cause Party", is a Kurdish Sunni fundamentalist political party). BBP member claims that National Action Party (MHP) officials are close to embracing ISIS. In the meeting, it is asserted that ISIS militants come to Turkey frequently to rest, as though they are taking a break from military service. They claim that Turkey will experience an Islamic revolution, and Turks should be ready for jihad. (See HERE and HERE.)• Seymour Hersh maintains in the London Review of Books that ISIS conducted sarin attacks in Syria, and that Turkey was informed. "For months there had been acute concern among senior military leaders and the intelligence community about the role in the war of Syria's neighbors, especially Turkey. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan was known to be supporting the al-Nusra Front, a jihadist faction among the rebel opposition, as well as other Islamist rebel groups. 'We knew there were some in the Turkish government,' a former senior US intelligence official, who has access to current intelligence, told me, 'who believed they could get Assad's nuts in a vice by dabbling with a sarin attack inside Syria - and forcing Obama to make good on his red line threat."• On September 20, 2014, Demir Celik, a Member of Parliament with the people's democratic party (HDP) claimed that Turkish Special Forces fight with ISIS.Turkey Helped ISIS in Battle for Kobani• Anwar Moslem, Mayor of Kobani, said on September 19, 2014: "Based on the intelligence we got two days before the breakout of the current war, trains full of forces and ammunition, which were passing by north of Kobane, had an-hour-and-ten-to-twenty-minute-long stops in these villages: Salib Qaran, Gire Sor, Moshrefat Ezzo. There are evidences, witnesses, and videos about this. Why is ISIS strong only in Kobane's east? Why is it not strong either in its south or west? Since these trains stopped in villages located in the east of Kobane, we guess they had brought ammunition and additional force for the ISIS." In the second article on September 30, 2014, a CHP delegation visited Kobani, where locals claimed that everything from the clothes ISIS militants wear to their guns comes from Turkey. (See HERE and HERE.)• Released by Nuhaber, a video shows Turkish military convoys carrying tanks and ammunition moving freely under ISIS flags in the Cerablus region and Karkamis border crossing (September 25, 2014). There are writings in Turkish on the trucks.• Salih Muslim, PYD head, claims that 120 militants crossed into Syria from Turkey between October 20th and 24th, 2014.• According to an op-ed written by a YPG commander in The New York Times on October 29, 2014, Turkey allows ISIS militants and their equipment to pass freely over the border.• Diken reported, "ISIS fighters crossed the border from Turkey into Syria, over the Turkish train tracks that delineate the border, in full view of Turkish soldiers. They were met there by PYD fighters and stopped."• A Kurdish commander in Kobani claims that ISIS militants have Turkish entry stamps on their passports.• Kurds trying to join the battle in Kobani are turned away by Turkish police at the Turkey-Syrian border.• OdaTV released a photograph of a Turkish soldier befriending ISIS militants.Turkey and ISIS Share a Worldview• RT reports on Vice President Joe Biden's remarks detailing Turkish support to ISIS.• According to the Hurriyet Daily News on September 26, 2014, "The feelings of the AKP's heavyweights are not limited to Ankara. I was shocked to hear words of admiration for ISIL from some high-level civil servants even in Şanliurfa. 'They are like us, fighting against seven great powers in the War of Independence,' one said." "Rather than the [Kurdistan Workers' Party] PKK on the other side, I would rather have ISIL as a neighbor," said another."• Cengiz Candar, a well-respected Turkish journalist, maintained that MIT helped "midwife" the Islamic state in Iraq and Syria, as well as other Jihadi groups.• An AKP council member posted on his Facebook page: "Thankfully ISIS exists... May you never run out of ammunition..."• A Turkish Social Security Institution supervisor uses the ISIS logo in internal correspondences.• Bilal Erdogan and Turkish officials meet alleged ISIS fighters.Mr. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He served as a Senior Adviser and Foreign Affairs Expert for the U.S. Department of State.Author's Note: Information presented in this paper is offered without bias or endorsement.Want more HuffPost, right in your social feeds? 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