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What is the biggest miscalculation made by the Modi government in India?

There was a time, not very long ago, when most Mumbaikars used to hear sirens, at-least 3 times a day. These sirens came from the famous erstwhile Mills of Bombay.[1][1][1][1]There were at least 500 small and large mills situated within Mumbai - and most household in India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, had at least one -”Made-In-Bombay” item in their homes.But then came a Doctor[2][2][2][2], who convinced mill workers that they deserved more. And so, the workers stood up for their rights and there was a Bombay wide strike - which ran for over a year.For one full year, the mills remained shut and the workers didn’t get paid.At the end of the strike, the workers didn’t get a salary raise - they got fired, losing their livelihoods, homes and dignity.The mill owners on the other hand, partnered with local politicians and became richer, by declaring their units as defunct and selling their prime lands to large builders for crores.As they say in Mumbai - Mill Workers ka Kat gaya.(Substandard translation: Mill workers got the short end of the stick)While some of us might laugh at this today, This strike was tragic, painful and life changing for Mumbai (Then Bombay) and lead to a steep rise in gang violence, death and destruction.Mill Workers of Bombay went through this, because there was no credible voice to make them curb their enthusiasm and seek a balanced win-win - because a balanced win-win is difficult to sell.They were blinded then - so are many of us right now - heading towards the same end-game.Please let me explain:You might have heard of this term: GDP per capita.[3][3][3][3]While there are various ways to define and calculate this, basically speaking, it is all the money, that the government, people and businesses of a country earn in a year, equally divided into each and every person of the country.As per the IMF[4][4][4][4] , last year, the GDP per capita (nominal value) for:Luxembourg was: $109,602United States of America was: $63,051Singapore was: $58,484Japan was: $39,048China was $10,839Brazil was: $6,450Sri Lanka was: $3,698Bhutan was $3,431India was: $1,877India ranks 142, among the 187(+2) territories listed by IMF.Quick conclusion: India is not a rich country.It is one of the poorest countries in the world.Currently, India, a nation of over 1.3 billion people, has the estimated total nominal GDP of around: $2.8 TrillionIf India has to be a largehearted, happy nation of educated, healthy and productive people, we as a country, have to make more money.To start with, it would be awesome, if we can double, what we make right now.The PainEvery economic survey, report, expert, and even your friendly Whatsap Uncle agrees, that India’s economic growth is stalled primarily due to three set of Indian laws:Our Farm LawsOur Land LawsOur Labor LawsBasically speaking, it is super difficult to set up a factory in India - even more difficult to hire large scale temporary workers and almost impossible to do large-scale, multiple state, food processing.So, we have water stressed states in India, growing water intensive crops like sugar cane and rice in surplus quantities, destroying our water tables, while India has to import pulses, fruits and veggies, which cannot be transported everywhere, because land acquisition laws make infrastructure building super costly; and cannot be stored or processed in most cases, because neither are affordable parcels of land available to set up factories, nor are industries allowed to hire temporary skilled workers.I am simplifying, but that’s the only way to explain this point to everyone.The Truth is…The current farm laws, designed to safeguard the minimum income and safety of farmers, actually prevent the farmers from getting more value and greater financial independence. Our Land laws, designed to safeguard the rights of small land owners, makes it obscenely expensive to build roads, infrastructure, commercial hubs and factories anywhere in the country, locking the true value of our land. And our Labor laws, designed to safeguard the rights of the workers, are ensuring that while our own workers remains jobless, many Indian jobs go to workers in Bangladesh, Vietnam and China.There is not a single industry or business currently running in India, government owned or private, which complies with all the stated Land, Labor and Farm laws in India. These laws simply don’t work.There’s a consensus among experts that just these three bunch of laws, if reformed, can give India a GDP growth rate of over 10% every year.[5][5][5][5]But…Every single Finance Minister since 1991, has failed to make any consequential movement towards reforming these laws.When Congress lead governments tried implementing these reforms - The Opposition parties including the BJP opposed the government.Now when BJP lead government tries to implement these reforms - the Opposition parties including the Congress opposes the government.We all agree on the pain point - we all broadly agree on the cure - but we still cannot get anything done.Let me explain this with a short and quick demo:Imagine, that you are a clothing manufacturer in Coimbatore, India, producing 1000 T Shirts every day.Let’s say, you get an order from Nike, to deliver 100,000 T Shirts in a month.What will you do?Well it is obvious, you will take the contract from NIke, and pass on the production job to 3 smaller companies in Bangladesh!Why? - Because if you have more than 100 employees, once the short term contract from Nike is over, you will have to take special permission from the central government of India, to be able to let go of the extra workers. It would be so costly and messy, that It is easier to just sub-contract the work to Bangladesh instead.So, a law, which was meant to safeguard the rights of workers in India, results in highly trained Indian workers, not getting jobs!Just this one law, is primarily responsible for over 90% of Indian workers, getting employed today in the ‘unorganized’ sector - where they do not even get basic income, job safety or any other benefit.Just this one law, is primarily responsible for many Indian Industries not scaling to become larger corporations in many sectors, where the demand from customers is seasonal.I have hundreds of horror stories to share from fellow entrepreneurs - stories about missed opportunities, and lost glory, which could have brought jobs and taxes for India, but ended up going to other countries because of these and a few other legal deformities of the Indian economy.Every single Indian unicorn is registered outside India. Ever wondered why?Every single political party and well read politician knows, that this is an issue.Every single Government since 1991, tried to make some amends to fix this issue.They all failed for one reason or the other.Coming to the present government led by Prime Minister Narendra ModiThe current government came with a massive decisive mandate.This was India’s best chance in the last 30 years to finally get some reforms done.They started the first leg of these crucial reforms with the Farm Laws - The Labor and Land Reforms were next.Needless to say - This government screwed up big time.The implementation of these laws has been postponed by 18 months already - post which, given our election cycle - no one in the government will have the guts to open this Pandora’s box again.If you cannot implement the Agriculture reforms - you cannot even think of touching Labor and Land reforms.So, basically speaking, we’d have to wait for another general election to see any consequential movement on these reforms.As they say in Mumbai - India ka phir se Kat gaya.(Substandard translation: People of India got the short end of the stick again).What has got you here, won’t get you there.Like them or hate them, The Modi-Shah lead BJP of today is an election winning machine. It knows how to sway the sentiments and win electoral battles across many states in India.But, the skills needed to win elections become useless,when it comes to governing a complex country like India.Modi government’s biggest failure has been their inability to sell the broad idea of reforms to the regular Indians.The recent Covid-19 calamity, was their golden chance to do, what no government in India was able to do since 1991.They failed.…And failed like how!Destroy with Love and RightsIt is said that the best way to ensure that no women (or any other social group) gets employment in India, is to pass a law, that guarantees 30% year-on-year mandatory salary increment for every female employee.Most women will support such a law. They will rejoice, when it is passed. But within 3 years - almost all the women who supported it, will be jobless.We have done something very similar with our Land, Labor and Farm laws in India - An untouchable holy pet cat of Indian politics, which scratches everyone, but still stays.Don’t expect things to change anytime soon.We have 3 more years to go.So, let’s continue to focus our national energies on Khalifa, Khalistan, Rihanna and Rahane. Let the river of outrage flow, Let the waterfall of hate for each other boil - People will suffer in pain, but at least the pain will be entertaining.As they say in Beijing - The Show Must Go On!Thank you for reading.Cheers and peace.Footnotes[1] Tragic Fable of Mumbai Mills[1] Tragic Fable of Mumbai Mills[1] Tragic Fable of Mumbai Mills[1] Tragic Fable of Mumbai Mills[2] Dutta Samant - Wikipedia[2] Dutta Samant - Wikipedia[2] Dutta Samant - Wikipedia[2] Dutta Samant - Wikipedia[3] GDP per capita growth (annual %) - India[3] GDP per capita growth (annual %) - India[3] GDP per capita growth (annual %) - India[3] GDP per capita growth (annual %) - India[4] https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD[4] https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD[4] https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD[4] https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD[5] India Inc pitches for land and labour reforms to achieve double-digit growth[5] India Inc pitches for land and labour reforms to achieve double-digit growth[5] India Inc pitches for land and labour reforms to achieve double-digit growth[5] India Inc pitches for land and labour reforms to achieve double-digit growth

How many shopping malls have more than fifty retailers in the United States?

Insights:The type of shopping center and the size and number of anchor stores determine the number of retailersAccording to the Bloomberg survey, the average American mall has around 115 retailersThe number of retailers is influenced by the vacancy ratesOverview:How many shopping centers with over 50 retailers exist in the U.S. and the average number of retailers per shopping center in the U.S. The short version is that the average American mall has around 115 stores. The number of stores highly depends on the type of shopping center as well as its anchor stores. Here are the results of my research.Methodology:Unfortunately, there isn’t any extensive data available regarding the average number of retailers per shopping center. According to the annual survey of the ICSC U.S. Shopping Centers and Characteristics for the American Marketplace, shopping centers are classified as follows:The type of shopping center (neighborhood center, theme center, regional mall etc.)The size of the shopping center (square footage)The types of stores (fashion, food courts, electronics etc.)The state and regionThe annual consumer income and sales per visitProductivityEmploymentAccording to the ICSC report there are a total of 115,622 traditional, specialty and special purpose shopping centers. Deducting the specialized-purpose and limited-purpose property from the total leaves 112,315 general-purpose centers. The average size of specialized and limited-purpose shopping centers account for less footage and there is no available data.According to the survey, general-purpose centers are classified as follows:Strip/Convenience centers with less than 30,000 sq. ft. per center (no data available regarding the number of stores)Neighborhood centers with 5 to 20 stores with an average of 71,912 sq. ft. per centerCommunity centers with 15 to 40 stores with an average of 197,378 sq. ft. per centerRegional malls with 40 to 80 stores with an average of 590,891 sq. ft. per mall.Super-regional malls with an average 1,244,637 sq. ft. per mall. There is no available data regarding the number of stores per mall. From the data (sq. ft.) it can be concluded that every mall has at least 50 tenants.All depending on the number of anchor stores, the type of shopping center and the square footage, the number of retailers vary.Deducting the strip/convenience (68,841), neighborhood (32,506) and community centers (9,746) with less than 50 tenants, regional and super-regional malls make up 1,222 of the shopping centers with 40 and more retailers.A helpful approach for calculating the number of retailers is the study conducted by Bloomberg, which surveyed 546 malls and 61,790 stores. The Mapping the Malls chart shows the number and types of stores of the average American mall. The number of the malls surveyed, divided by the total number of stores gives an average of around 115 stores per shopping center.Vacancy:Although Bloomberg surveyed the average American mall, the average vacancy rate is not taken into account. As of the first quarter of 2016, the vacancy rate was 5.6 percent according to the JLL survey. In July, Reuters reported a vacancy rate increase to 7.9 percent for the second quarter of 2016. This means that although shopping centers may have an average of 115 stores, the vacancy rate has to be taken into the equation.Calculation Vacancy Rates:The fluctuation as such is the normal procedure of stores closing and new stores opening within shopping centers. What makes it a problem for shopping centers is when vacancy rates are above average. The CoStar Group graph in the New York Times article, published July 2015, defines critical vacancy rates and their projection of future development:Around 8% of the malls have a vacancy rate of 10% to 20% and are considered a sign of trouble.Around 15% of the malls have a vacancy between 20% and 40% and are considered unhealthy.Around 18% of the malls have a vacancy rate of 40% or more and are considered dying.Calculation of stores per mall:Taking the average American mall, (according to the Bloomberg survey) with its 546 malls with an average of 115 stores into account:8% of the malls have between 103 and 92 tenants (approx. 44 malls)15% of the malls have between 92 stores and 69 tenants (approx. 82 malls)18% of the malls have 69 stores or less tenants (approx. 98 malls)By implication, this means that around 56 percent of the malls have a vacancy rate of less than 7.9 percent and this averages to around 105 to 106 stores with tenants per shopping center.Outlook:According to the ICSC study, after the period of recession started in 2009, new shopping centers declined. However, ISCS states that the balance between supply and demand has improved since 2013.The latest study projects that retailers are expected to open more than 40,000 stores within the next 12 months and more than 77,000 stores within the next 24 months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics states that private retail by 293,000 jobs between January and August 2016.For the future, the ISCS projects a demand for goods and services because of population growth. They forecasted an increase of 2 million people annually between now and 2050.Observations:There has been a growth of the typical brick-and-mortar stores. Online vendors are increasingly establishing physical stores by following a omnichannel marketing strategy. According to the study in 2013, around 94 percent of retail sales took place in physical stores regardless of age or income. One in five consumers will purchase online after browsing in a store, and one in twenty will buy in a physical store after browsing in the online store. Large stores and outlets are expected to decrease their floor space size, though.

How long did it take for Japan to realize the degree of damage done by the atomic bombs once they had been dropped? Did they understand what had happened and if not, how did they find out?

They understood a single bomb took out both Hiroshima and Nagasaki.The realization that an atomic bomb destroyed Hiroshima was not immediate but between Truman’s announcement and their own scientists they soon understood what had happened.Surrender was not considered an option.At this time the Japanese War Council continued to insist on conditional surrender. The Japanese insisted the Allies accept the following conditions before they would surrender:Retention of the emperor (upon which all Japanese leaders agreed, since they considered the emperor to be a god)No Allied occupation of the Japanese mainlandJapan would disarm itselfJapan would try its own war criminalsTruman was determined that the surrender be unconditional so the second bomb was dropped and the decision was made to continued destroying Japanese cities until they capitulated.This is how Japan came to understand what happened:The Tokyo control operator of the Japan Broadcasting Corporation noticed that the Hiroshima station had gone off the air. He tried to re-establish his program by using another telephone line, but it too had failed. About 20 minutes later the Tokyo railroad telegraph center realized that the main line telegraph had stopped working just north of Hiroshima. From some small railway stops within 16 km (10 mi) of the city came unofficial and confused reports of a terrible explosion in Hiroshima. All these reports were transmitted to the headquarters of the Imperial Japanese Army General Staff.Military bases repeatedly tried to call the Army Control Station in Hiroshima. The complete silence from that city puzzled the General Staff; they knew that no large enemy raid had occurred and that no sizable store of explosives was in Hiroshima at that time. A young officer was instructed to fly immediately to Hiroshima, to land, survey the damage, and return to Tokyo with reliable information for the staff. It was felt that nothing serious had taken place and that the explosion was just a rumor.The staff officer went to the airport and took off for the southwest. After flying for about three hours, while still nearly 160 km (100 mi) from Hiroshima, he and his pilot saw a great cloud of smoke from the bomb. After circling the city to survey the damage they landed south of the city, where the staff officer, after reporting to Tokyo, began to organize relief measures. Tokyo's first indication that the city had been destroyed by a new type of bomb came from President Truman's announcement of the strike, sixteen hours later.After the Hiroshima bombing, Truman issued a statement announcing the use of the new weapon. He stated, "We may be grateful to Providence" that the German atomic bomb project had failed, and that the United States and its allies had "spent two billion dollars on the greatest scientific gamble in history—and won". Truman then warned Japan: "If they do not now accept our terms, they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth. Behind this air attack will follow sea and land forces in such numbers and power as they have not yet seen and with the fighting skill of which they are already well aware." This was a widely broadcast speech picked up by Japanese news agencies.The 50,000-watt standard wave station on Saipan, the OWI radio station, broadcast a similar message to Japan every 15 minutes about Hiroshima, stating that more Japanese cities would face a similar fate in the absence of immediate acceptance of the terms of the Potsdam Declaration and emphatically urged civilians to evacuate major cities. Radio Japan, which continued to extoll victory for Japan by never surrendering, had informed the Japanese of the destruction of Hiroshima by a single bomb. Prime Minister Suzuki felt compelled to meet the Japanese press, to whom he reiterated his government's commitment to ignore the Allies' demands and fight on.Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov informed Tokyo of the Soviet Union's unilateral abrogation of the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact on August 5. At two minutes past midnight on August 9, Tokyo time, Soviet infantry, armor, and air forces had launched the Manchurian Strategic Offensive Operation. Four hours later, word reached Tokyo of the Soviet Union's official declaration of war. The senior leadership of the Japanese Army began preparations to impose martial law on the nation, with the support of Minister of War Korechika Anami, to stop anyone attempting to make peace.On August 7, a day after Hiroshima was destroyed, Dr. Yoshio Nishina and other atomic physicists arrived at the city, and carefully examined the damage. They then went back to Tokyo and told the cabinet that Hiroshima was indeed destroyed by a nuclear weapon. Admiral Soemu Toyoda, the Chief of the Naval General Staff, estimated that no more than one or two additional bombs could be readied, so they decided to endure the remaining attacks, acknowledging "there would be more destruction but the war would go on". American Magic codebreakers intercepted the cabinet's messages.Purnell, Parsons, Tibbets, Spaatz, and LeMay met on Guam that same day to discuss what should be done next. Since there was no indication of Japan surrendering, they decided to proceed with dropping another bomb. Parsons said that Project Alberta would have it ready by August 11, but Tibbets pointed to weather reports indicating poor flying conditions on that day due to a storm, and asked if the bomb could be readied by August 9. Parsons agreed to try to do so.[Nagasaki was bombed on 9 August]Until August 9, Japan's war council still insisted on its four conditions for surrender. The full cabinet met on 14:30 on August 9, and spent most of the day debating surrender. Anami conceded that victory was unlikely, but argued in favour of continuing the war nonetheless. The meeting ended at 17:30, with no decision having been reached. Suzuki went to the palace to report on the outcome of meeting, where he met with Kōichi Kido, the Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal of Japan. Kido informed him that the emperor had agreed to hold an imperial conference, and gave a strong indication that the emperor would consent to surrender on condition that kokutai be preserved. A second cabinet meeting was held at 18:00. Only four ministers supported Anami's position of adhering to the four conditions, but since cabinet decisions had to be unanimous, no decision was reached before it ended at 22:00.Calling an imperial conference required the signatures of the prime minister and the two service chiefs, but the Chief Cabinet Secretary Hisatsune Sakomizu had already obtained signatures from Toyoda and General Yoshijirō Umezu in advance, and he reneged on his promise to inform them if a meeting was to be held. The meeting commenced at 23:50. No consensus had emerged by 02:00 on August 10, but the emperor gave his "sacred decision", authorizing the Foreign Minister, Shigenori Tōgō, to notify the Allies that Japan would accept their terms on one condition, that the declaration "does not comprise any demand which prejudices the prerogatives of His Majesty as a Sovereign ruler."On August 12, the Emperor informed the imperial family of his decision to surrender. One of his uncles, Prince Asaka, then asked whether the war would be continued if the kokutai could not be preserved. Hirohito simply replied, "Of course." As the Allied terms seemed to leave intact the principle of the preservation of the Throne, Hirohito recorded on August 14 his capitulation announcement which was broadcast to the Japanese nation the next day despite a short rebellion by militarists opposed to the surrender. Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - WikipediaSurrender of Japan - WikipediaAnami Korechika

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