Rider 21 Lease With Option To Purchase: Fill & Download for Free

Just a few weeks ago in October, I signed the contract for a 2017 BMW 750. I traded in my old used 2011 Audi A4. The reason, several actually.I don't find it comfortable- When I purchased by Audi A4 a few years back, I spent about 25k. For 25k, I was very impressed with the driving abilities of the A4 and I loved the car, but I didn't find it up to date. Don't get me wrong, the Tesla is a great car, but I found it more uncomfortable than my old $25k Audi A4 for 4x the price. The back seats are even worse. I couldn't adjust the Tesla seat with my watch on because the seat was cramped next to the door.There is no luxury- The Tesla is a car focused on the pure technologically minded individual— the Silicon Valley executives to say the least. In that respect, it’s a great car. But, from my perspective if it's going to cost me 4x more than my old A4, it should at least match the comfort and luxury of my A4. Tesla finally introduced ventilated seats as an option a month or two back. Automatically adjusting seats, massage functions, and other basic features (for cars over $100k) are yet to be offered. The Tesla still offers the standard power seats while in retrospect the Audi A7 which is the same price as the starting Tesla offers if I am not mistaken 18-way seats. The back seat doesn’t even have a center armrest or console.Technology is Old (not autopilot)- Now, I am sure there is going to be some backlash on this, but I feel the technology in the Tesla is rather outdated. Previously, I was fond of the Tesla because it had the latest technology but that's not the case anymore. My BMW has surround view. You would think the Tesla would've had that. Perpendicular park assist and parallel park exit? No. To be fair, my BMW doesn't have this but the Mercedes E300 did an excellent job. Now to be fair to the Tesla, yes autopilot is amazing. But, in my perspective, BMW or Mercedes comparitive systems are not as good compared to Tesla but sufficent nevertheless at least for me personally. The infotainment system also responded faster in both the Mercedes E300 and the BMW 750 than did the Tesla. The Tesla seemed bogged down because it offers so much screen real estate but not a fast enough processor.Lease is overpriced- I lease my cars for my business. The Tesla lease was almost 25% more for a car of the same value as my BMW. Tesla relies on the fact that Teslas require almost no maintenance and fuel savings to try and up sell the lease. My BMW warranty covers all maintenance for my 3 year lease term and fuel savings are nonexistent after the lease’s price markup.It’s Electric- Now, I am not personally against electric cars. I love the concept, but it’s still for the most part not the meta in the United States. There are not that many charging stations especially in suburbs and rural areas. Second, I value my time considerably and I don’t appreciate waiting for a charge even if it’s only 20 minutes. I also don’t want the headache to worry about getting home after a long trip or range anxiety in other words.Tesla looks down on buyers under 21- The last part, which affected me personally, was the way Tesla treats potential customers under 21. The store experience and the purchase experience are second to none, don’t get me wrong, but the environment and culture of Tesla’s operations is built against buyers under 21. Just to test drive a Tesla, I had to call customer support three times—each time promised a call back. Customer support had that “another joy-rider calling me” attitude and talked in hypotheticals “if you are a serious buyer”. I was very insulted. On the third call, I finally got a call back from a manager who arranged a test drive in a minute or two. Wasted quite a lot of my time in total. When I got to the store, I was forced to make a reservation and shell out $2,500 on the spot to JUST TEST DRIVE THE CAR. Now, I get Tesla is trying to weed out the joy riders, but I most definitely did not appreciate that. When I decided to cancel the reservation as I had purchased the BMW, I had to call in to support and chat with a few different agents to process a cancelation. The refund did not come to my credit card for several weeks. I had to even shell out the $2,500 on my monthly statement to avoid the interest despite the statement being issued 2 weeks after my cancellation. I have walked into tons of dealerships and have NEVER faced such an issue before. In all fairness, a 7 day refund on the reservation is great, but I should not have to make a reservation just to test drive the car. Can you imagine walking into Toyota, “Yes, sir. Since you are under 21, to test drive the 2017 Camry, you need to first place an order. We will need a down-payment of $1,000.”Now yes, I find it very cool to buy a car that represents the future in terms of self-driving capability. However, in terms of value, comfort, and practicality it just doesn’t fit. I do hope that electric cars do take up a significant market share in the future to accelerate charging development.**Thanks for all the upvotes :)**

My process for researching IPOs used to go something like:Read up on the state of the industry.Find good commentary on the S-1 to help me understand which bits are most novel/important.Read the S-1 itself, paying special attention to the sections I would have misunderstood/discounted without that commentary.But the world has changed, and that process now looks more like this:Read the S-1.Fact-check what the S-1 says about the industry.Sigh deeply.Look up commentary on the S-1.Sigh more deeply.Write a sad post about steps 2-5.In the case of Peloton, I don’t actually have much to criticize in context of that second point. They’re in a strong position and they know it. Like early Netflix, they had a better view of the future than anyone else in their industry, and they’ve executed their plan beautifully.But the outside commentary about their IPO? Oh boy. Matt Levine and Ben Thompson both had some useful comments in their newsletters, but pretty much everything I found elsewhere was, uh, not great.Take this representative example from CNN:Peloton, the indoor fitness startup, is filing for an IPO after the company generated $915 million in revenue in the fiscal year ending June 30, despite never turning a profit. @MattEganCNN reports. https://t.co/g9XVSRfWgg pic.twitter.com/MQTdjsKUZS— CNN (@CNN) August 29, 2019While nothing in that clip is particularly interesting or insightful, the real money quote comes at 1:08:Peloton warned that it may never turn a profit.This has become something like a shibboleth that separates real financial analysts from those playing one on TV. Virtually every tech S-1 contains that clause now as part of their routine risk disclosures. It isn’t meant to be taken as forward guidance. It’s just a lawyerly way of ensuring it gets mentioned to cover them in a worst-case scenario.Next we have this one from a NYT startup/VC reporter:peloton to CNBC: we are "weirdly profitable!"peloton to SEC: heh... pic.twitter.com/DfFPu1HxNU— Erin Griffith (@eringriffith) August 27, 2019Griffith’s argument here is that John Foley (Peloton’s CEO and co-founder) went on CNBC in 2018 and said his company was “weirdly profitable”, while their S-1 says that they’ve actually experienced net operating losses every year since their inception and that they expect this trend to continue “for the foreseeable future”. Ergo, he said one thing on TV and another to the SEC, with the implication being that he was honest with the SEC because there are real consequences to lying to them.So, a few things here:Foley’s quote (at 2:50 of the CNBC interview) was in response to the question “are you profitable”, to which he answered “we are profitable, weirdly”, where the force of that last word was to differentiate Peloton from all the cashfire unicorns. The sense was “most of them aren't profitable, so it’s kinda weird that we are”.“Profitable, weirdly” is not the same as “weirdly profitable”. The latter gives the sense of some unusual level or type of profitability. But Peloton is more or less the level and type of profitable you’d expect from their model, which isn’t all that novel.Profitability is always context-dependent. The most common form for public companies is net income on an GAAP earnings report, but there are many other forms, and net income today would be a silly and unsophisticated way to judge a company like Peloton.If I sell you a phone at a $100 loss, but that phone is paired with a contract for $40 per month for 24 months, with the expected margin on that $40 being 40%, did I make or lose money on the deal? While you have to discount those future earnings a bit (opportunity costs and defaults and the like), you’re still looking at a substantial expected profit, and how and when you book that profit is an accounting question, not a business health question.Peloton makes a ~40% gross margin on each bike sale, which is offset by their massive customer acquisition costs. Depending on how you assign certain costs, they either make a modest profit or a modest loss on each unit. But that’s neither here nor there, as it’s the $40 per month subscription service that’s the real cash cow. Per their S-1, 92% of bikes ever sold still have an active subscription. That’s the sort of stable revenue stream that would be easy for them to sell if they wanted to book/bank a profit today. It’s just hard to see why they’d want to do that.Griffith kinda acknowledged all this, but in a way that was more a double-down than an admission.Yeah he was not speaking to investors, he was speaking to the public, which understands "profitable" by the standard definition (black not red). He didn't specify "cash flow positive" or gross margin etc. And it's not the only story w/that claim https://t.co/aBgIHLZjgH pic.twitter.com/jz1aKMcDrS— Erin Griffith (@eringriffith) August 28, 2019So Foley and co. have been saying “we’re profitable” based on some LTV calculation. This feels entirely uncontroversial to me. Anyone eligible to invest in Peloton in either 2015 or 2018 was an accredited investor, and wasn’t going to be confused by this statement. It would be one thing if Peloton made some kind of disclosure to retail investors that was misleading or dangerously ambiguous, but that’s obviously not what happened here. They’re profitable from one view and not from another. But their valuation reflects that one of those is the more meaningful measure.Anyway, let’s move on to the last one, which was my personal favorite:4/ So Peloton is now losing subs at a rate of around 40-50k per year on an eligible base that is ALMOST CERTAINLY way smaller than 200k, probably even 150k. Pretty interesting if you ask me. Now push this IPO out the door already and raise that $$$ before the metrics really turn!— Inquisitive Investor (@QuisitiveInvest) August 27, 2019Unpacking this:The argument here is that Peloton used to sell their bikes with a financing package that included a subscription contract. While they abandoned this practice a year ago, lots of those contracts are still on the books, meaning that natural churn for those cohorts would likely be higher than it has been so far (i.e., some number of subscribers would have cancelled if they had the option).In anon’s view, Peloton “exquisitely timed” their IPO to take place before these contracts lapse, thus leaving sucker investors less clever than him to hold the bag when mass cancellations begin.To focus on just one way this argument is silly and disqualifying, consider his “ALMOST CERTAINLY” claim, where he says that only 150-200k Peloton bike owners have been free to cancel. This is an especially curious argument when you consider the details in the S-1 screencap from his third tweet alongside his own commentary from the tweet that immediately preceded it (specifically the bit where he says “we added half those in the past 12 months”).2/ but given the massive growth, of the 500k+ subscribers we get to use in the denominator for churn, we added half those in past 12 months. So we lost 8%+ of the 500K, but that 40-50k really applies to the 250k from last year... BUT... the plot thickens further..— Inquisitive Investor (@QuisitiveInvest) August 27, 2019Right, so Peloton added 265k of their 510k subscribers in the last year (i.e., since about the same time they stopped offering contract options). And this is actually understating it, as that 265k figure is net additions, meaning it accounts for churn over that same period. This means that a maximum of 245k subscribers are still under contract, with the real number almost certainly being much lower, as not everyone signed a contract back then.This means that at least 265k of Peloton’s 510k subscribers never had a contract, and could have cancelled at any time since they signed up. By comparison, anon puts the total churn-eligible base at 150-200k.When asked to explain the discrepancy…The 'true' denominator is something in the ballpark of 150k, as very, very few first year subscribers are going to cancel the $40/mo subscription after spending $2500 on the bike. That gets you down to 250k. Then another ~100k had already prepaid for 2019 so wouldnt cancel either— Inquisitive Investor (@QuisitiveInvest) August 30, 2019Per him, first-year subscribers and those who had otherwise prepaid for 2019 ought to be grouped with those locked in contractually, and only those who don’t fit any of those categories are truly churn-eligible.About all that:The S-1 doesn’t break out how many did the contract option vs. the 1-year prepay option vs. 4-month prepay vs. none of the above. Either anon has a private source he doesn’t credit or he’s just guessing.That 1-year prepay option was killed off in July of 2018, meaning that all said people are free to churn now, with most having been free to do so for some time already.While it’s probably true that churn would be higher in year two than year one for most customers, this idea that “very, very few” would cancel in year one seems overly confident. A year is an arbitrary amount of time. Given that no one is signing annual contracts anymore, one would expect for dissatisfied users to churn at various break points starting as early as a few months in.Engagement is a good proxy for churn. If a user is just waiting out their contract, we’d expect their use of the bike to decrease over time as they get towards the end. But the data (which we’ll get to) suggests the opposite. (One possible explanation for this is that dissatisfied users have sold their bikes privately, with the buyer being the one supplying the engagement. If true, this would indeed suggest that true churn is higher. But a good proxy here is the resale market. If lots of contract-bound users were bailing, the supply of used bikes would be high. But the data mostly indicates the opposite.)Taken together, our anonymous friend didn’t make a set of arguments that I’d find terribly compelling, but, well, you know, I’m just a guy and not like the Tech Editor for MarketWatch:Hey, I love this thread and would like to embed it in an article I am writing summing up the Peloton S-1 - OK with you?— Jeremy C. Owens (@jowens510) August 28, 2019Anyway, in contrast to all this we have the official churn numbers (p. 63):So, Q4 2019 (April through June) was bursting with subscribers able to cancel without penalty, and yet average churn was actually down from Q4 2018 (when lockin was a more significant factor). Now, sure, some of this looks good because of Peloton’s incredible growth rates, and churn won’t stay this low forever. But even 1% per month would put them well ahead of traditional gyms, where 2% is considered good. And looking at the resale market (more on that later), Peloton can safely absorb a mild increase.I guess the moral here is to always be suspicious of non-sarcastic caps, as they’re usually indicative of someone being wrong loudly. Oh, and maybe we shouldn’t be outsourcing financial journalism to Twitter anons...Anyway, let’s move on to the S-1 itself.HighlightsIn no particular order:Look at the number of underwriters / bookrunners!I count 21. While that’s a bit behind Uber’s 29, it’s still a massive multiple over the 2017 average of just 3.7. But this trend makes sense. You pay a bit more in fees, but you dramatically increase your salesforce while also gagging a larger number of sell-side analysts for the quiet period. For a tech IPO where risk is quite a bit higher than a conventional company, this seems a good tradeoff.Speaking of trends, it looks like dual class stocks aren’t going away. Tech has leverage, and tech is using it. Peloton is going to remain under private control as a public company.97.8% of Peloton equipment sales thus far have been in the US. This is either great or terrible depending how you parse it. While they’ve yet to find success elsewhere (their expansion into UK/Canada is recentish), that’s a lot of potential upside.Their standalone app has over 100k subscribers now, each paying $20/mo USD. That’s another huge growth area. While secondary to the bikes/treadmill model, becoming the Netflix of yoga videos and fitness tutorials is no small thing. Peloton excels at content creation, and their investments in talent/studios should pay off nicely here.Two consecutive years of ~100% revenue growth! That will slow down, but I could still see $5bn by 2022 or 2023. This extra revenue will also come with better margins, as their marginal costs for delivering video are near zero, and their content costs will drop on a per-user basis at a certain tipping point.Per the S-1: “on average, our Connected Fitness Subscribers completed 7.5, 8.4, and 11.5 workouts per month in fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively.” That’s great, yet almost an undersell. Just look at this cohort data!Another pleasant surprise: “According to our 2019 Member Survey, four out of five Members were not in the market for home fitness equipment prior to purchasing a Peloton Connected Fitness Product.” This means their TAM is actually bigger than the traditional home fitness market. They’ve basically invented a new category, which bodes well for them.$915m revenue against 58m logged workouts last year. That’s about $16 per, which is less than half the cost of a SoulCycle class. And that’s not even a fair comparison, as revenue includes other things and the cost of the bike is often frontloaded. Court Showerman did a nice breakdown here of his personal ROI, and the numbers look pretty compelling. Plus you have the commuting savings, which are non-trivial.Peloton is selling something in the neighbourhood of $8m in apparel! This isn’t a significant profit center, but it’s a great sign of their brand equity. Peloton says that they’re a movement as much as a company, and the data kinda agrees with them there. People into their mission/culture are mostly really into it.Not from the S-1, but from looking at Craigslist it seems like the resale market is healthy/brisk. The cheapest non-broken one I saw from my three-city search (SFBA, CHI, NYC) was $1,700, which was for a 2015 Gen 1 model, and it looked like the listings all turn over pretty quickly. Given that the retail price for a new bike is ~$2,250 with delivery, these are Apple-esque levels of depreciation.I actually screwed up my initial Craigslist search and ended up looking for Peloton under the housing tab. I got 54 results for apartment listings that specifically mentioned a Peloton bike. That’s anecdotal and I wouldn’t weight it too heavily, but you can see the market for condos/gyms/hotels buying these to make their customers happy.All said, a lot to like. Peloton isn’t a flash in the pan. They’re created something new, and customers seem to really value it. While there is a practical growth ceiling, it doesn’t seem like they’re anywhere close yet.Risks & ConcernsBut sure, not all is rosy:They had an expensive settlement over music rights (huge part of the customer experience). While it looks like this is mostly settled and that costs will go down over time, the risk seems to be that labels might try to renegotiate down the road. But I don’t enough about the dynamics to comment much more here.There are recession risks. The bike isn’t cheap, and the treadmill costs even more ($4,300). But the combined cost of bike installments and a subscription is ~$100 per month, which is a significant discount on Equinox and other upscale gyms. Given that extra riders are free, I can see some couples/families actually turning toward Peloton if they were cost-cutting. A recession would still hurt, but maybe not as much as some are imagining.Some concerning S-1 comments re: dilution and exec compensation. Seems both are going to be high. It’s hard to quantify the right discount here given how cagey they were with details, but it’s something potential investors have to think about.They’re spending a lot of cash on expensive leases in NYC and London. It isn’t a crazy amount of money, and I don’t see it risking their path to positive cashflows, and I can kinda see where it’s necessary for brand prestige, etc. Even so, the moderate in me wishes they’d watch their burn a bit more than they are. Financial discipline is always a positive, and it seems like they could do with more of it.They don’t break out treadmill sales, which makes me assume they’re not great. If true, that could be a bad sign for their ability to grow beyond just bikes.As mentioned above, they have yet to prove success in any market outside the US. While their investments in London are considerable, it’s possible that their culture just won’t translate.Overall AssessmentThe valuation being floated last week was $8bn. This seems cheap to me, and I’d be surprised if the end number isn’t revised upward. But I’d still be a buyer at $10bn. I think my cap will be somewhere between $11-12bn.Though I wouldn’t agree with a valuation higher than $12bn, whether I think the stock will rise above that is a separate question. Peloton reminds me a lot of Tesla in terms of generating fans (NPS of 80-93). I expect lots of them will buy shares to support the mission and align themselves with the brand. Hard to guess the size of the effect here, but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t a factor.

Try this site where you can compare quotes://insure-cheap.info/index.html?src=compare//RELATEDMotorcycle insurance in canada?The insurance companies in Canada are punishing seasoned riders with annual increased rates for motorcycles. Some won’t even insure you if you change the pipes and the breather on your bike! Is there an association that can aid seasoned riders with fair insurance rates? If not, can we start one? If you’ve been riding for more than 20 years, I would like to hear how you are managing with these rip offs by the insurance companies.”How do you switch from motability to owning a car with the UK’s new car insurance policies?Ok we’ve got a small problem. At present we get a car from motability, but we want to switch to owning our own car, but we have a major problem with this new all cars must be insured at all times or declared SORN scheme. The problem we have is that our motability car goes back in October. We’re in a rural location so we need a car ready for when the switch over happens. At present with the motability insurance their insurance only insures one vehicle, the motability one, and can’t have additional vehicles added to it. We’ve got a few quotes from insurance companies who have told us that when the motability lease expires they will give us the no claim discount based on the motabiity insurance, but they wont give us that discount until the motability car goes back. So what we want to do is get the new car before October, put it on the drive, check everything is ok with it, and then insure it when we start using it on the road when the motability vehicle goes back. Only problem is with this new law we can’t do that without declaring the vehicle SORN. Some of the vehicles we’ve seen come with a few months road tax, so we don’t really want to lose that by declaring it SORN, just for a few weeks (or is the tax disc still valid when you remove the SORN on the car?), we also don’t want to insure the vehicle before the motability vehicle goes back as we wont get any NCB from the new insurer and that will cost us about an extra 500 in insurance (our current insurance price is about 500–600 but with 0 years no claims it goes up to around 1,000–1,100 - we have 3 years no claims with motability and I’ve held my driving licence for 6 years). I’ve read that you don’t need this compulsory insurance if the vehicle is in trade, or between registered owners. That is one option, but how long after you buy a vehicle can you keep it in that status, would we be able to keep it like that for a few weeks or is it pretty much instant when we get the car. Obviously I realise I would need some kind of temporary one day insurance to drive the vehicle home after purchase.”How do I drive a new car home if I can’t get insurance on it for another 2 weeks?My insurance company said they need the car title before they can give me insurance on the car. This doesn’t make any sense, the dealer say they cannot hold on to the car once it’s bought because it’s not their responsbility anymore. But I need to buy the car to get the title and the title won’t be processed for 1–2 weeks. So once I buy the car I need to take it home but that means driving without insurance, what’s going on here is it okay?”Should I get collision on insurance for a 2004 Honda?I’m 19, new driver, and the car costs $8500. I’m going to get comprehensive because I live at student apartments and people are always breaking into cars and stuff. I can’t decide to keep or delete the Collision. The lowest quote for Collision coverage with $1000 deductible is $650 for 6 months (not including the whole premium). I’m terrified of wrecking the car, but not having collision cuts my monthly premium by $100. I don’t have a lot of money and don’t know what to do!”Is it expensive to insure a Prius?I want to invest in buying a toyota prius but I heard that the insurance for these vehicles is expensive. I have Allstate insurance. Anyone who owns a prius, is the insurance …show more”What is the diffrence between the full tort and limited tort auto insurance?i have just moved to nj from england and im trying to get insurance on my range rover i have just bought here but your insurance is totally diffrent to ours what is full tort and limited tort (etc) on progressive i can get my range rover insured for $200 a month but then it says recommended $450 and plus package $570 we dont have these diffrent packages i have no idea what bodily injury is and it goes on about all these thousends of dollars on property damage and lawsuits and uninsured its all so confusing can someone please help and break it all down im only 20 but im 21 tomorrow i moved here in april this year so i dunno if it will be cheaper when im 21 tomorrow i know it drops in england when your 21 but im not sure about here any advice would be appreciated thanks p.s love the country :)What is the best and most affordable whole life insurance i can get for my mother who is 77?what’s the best and most affordable whole life policy i can get for my mother who is 77 and has numerous health concerns?What is the best way to insure a car with a salvage title?I recently purchased a car with a salvage title. This is my first car, and I’m in deep enough that it wouldn’t make sense to get rid of it at this point. I would like to get collision insurance on it if possible. Really, there are a couple questions here: *NOTE: I live in Ohio. I’m not sure the answer to this question will be the same in all states. Can I have a car with a salvage title retitled with a clean title through some sort of govermnent inspection? If so, how would I go about this? Is there any way I can get collision insurance for my car? Will insurance rates be higher for me? Anything you can tell me will be much appreciated!”First time car buyer…getting car insurance.?i am about to buy my first car and of course i will be getting car insurance. i won’t be getting on anyone else’s policy. what should i expect when getting insurance? do i have to pay a bunch of money up front?Health insurance for baby only?I’m under my moms insurance , and I just recently applied for Medicaid and got accepted . Once I got my card my name was on it . I don’t need the insurance but my unborn baby does . How does this process work if unborn baby needs insurance but I don’t ?”