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My honest answer is yes. Confucianism does seem to need the concept of Heaven to work. The reason why is because all of the major pre-Qin Confucians appealed to Heaven as a sort of ‘validator’ of their ideas.Confucius and HeavenFor Confucius, Heaven was a sort of commanding force. This makes sense, given that Confucius was basically idealising the early Zhou dynasty as the highest standard of governance, and it was these very people in the early Zhou who formulated the idea of the Mandate of Heaven. This essentially claims that only a ruler who instills the ‘correct’ virtues are approved by Heaven. We can therefore interpret from this that the main benefit and impetus of living a Confucian virtuous lifestyle is gaining the approval of Heaven.Today people claim that Confucianism is mainly a political philosophy and about creating societal order. But the roots of this order are found in the correct application of virtues, namely ren (benevolence) and li (ritual). The reasoning why we should follow these virtues is because they lead to human flourishing. But again, one may ask why do they lead to human flourishing - the only answer Confucius seems to have for this is because cultivating virtue is to act in accordance with the will of Heaven. In one famous quote, Confucius shows that the conditions for him to receive truth and finally act according to his own will and that which is ‘right’ were only prepared by first learning, clearing his mind, and understanding Heaven:The Master said, "At fifteen, I had my mind bent on learning. At thirty, I stood firm. At forty, I had no doubts. At fifty, I knew the decrees of Heaven. At sixty, my ear was an obedient organ for the reception of truth. At seventy, I could follow what my heart desired, without transgressing what was right."Mencius and HeavenMencius basically inherited the same view Confucius had of Heaven. However, he expanded it further, making Confucianism arguably even more reliant on the concept of Heaven. Mencius’s most famous argument is that human nature is fundamentally good and consists of four root virtues that we can nurture. However, Mencius also acknowledged that humans are capable of evil. The same question can be asked again then - why should one follow one’s nature, especially when quick profit can obviously appear a more attractive alternative? As the scholar Philip J. Ivanhoe writes, “Mencius’s most direct and explicit answer was religious in nature: Heaven granted us our nature, and coming to understand and develop our nature is the way to understand and accord with the will of Heaven.”For Mencius then, Heaven is not just some arbiter of morality, it is actually intertwined with our nature. The purpose of life then is to continuously cultivate one’s nature (morality), which enables them to go through various stages. The penultimate two stages are ‘sagehood’ and ‘divinity’, and it is in these two stages that we finally ‘connect’ our nature to its source - Heaven. As Li Zehou states, “The “sage” and the “divine” have both achieved a “unity between heaven and humans,” with the natural realm and the universe as a whole.” The basis of moral virtuous action then is not merely to enable human flourishing, but so that each individual can become perfected in their interconnection with Heaven.Xunzi and HeavenXunzi is commonly seen as an almost-atheist figure who denied the role of Heaven in influencing any human affairs. He still acknowledged the existence of Heaven, but said it is separate to Earthly problems - things are not caused or solved by Heaven. Furthermore, he said human nature is inherently evil. Our knowledge then of how to create orderly societies that enable flourishing (our ‘way’, as he calls it) is not a result of our inner good, but rather the result of tested political philosophy. Strict rules and order is the best system that works for us because it has worked in the past, according to Xunzi. As he states,“The gentleman takes joy in attaining the Way. The petty man takes joy in attaining the object of his desires. If one takes the Way to regulate one’s desires, then one will be happy and not disordered. If one forgets the Way for the sake of one’s desires, then one will be confused and unhappy.”It would appear he has no reliance on Heaven then, but we have to take one further step back. Why does this political philosophy enable us to flourish then? Is it just luck? Xunzi’s discourse on Music can help illuminate his ideas further. Xunzi claims that music can be a source to guide us to perfect orderly conduct, and he gives prescriptions on what music is correct:“The gentleman guides his intentions with bells and drums. He delights his heart with the qin and se. He moves with shield and spear. He decorates his dance with feathers and plumes. He follows it up with stone chimes and pipes. And so, his purity resembles Heaven, his broadness resembles the Earth, and the way he postures and revolves has resemblance to the four seasons.”“On the meaning of the dance: The way of Heaven is all-encompassing. The drum is the lord of the music, is it not? Thus, the drum resembles Heaven. The bell resembles Earth. The stone chimes resemble water. The yu, sheng, xiao, he, guan, and yue resemble the sun, moon, and stars. The tao, zhu, fu, ge, qiang, and qia resemble the myriad creatures.”He therefore connects the idea of order to the human creation of music to the perfectly ordered mechanisms of Heaven. As Erica Brindley states, “Xunzi also suggests that music goes beyond both individuals and societies to bring about order on the largest possible scale. This is because music mimics the harmonious operations of the cosmos”. Xunzi is saying that order is good because it reflects the natural way of things, the way of Heaven.In all then, Xunzi was not denying the importance of Heaven. Rather, he was simply trying to divorce the common-held belief that it has direct interaction or affection with humanity. Nonetheless, the order of Heaven is still the ultimate standard humanity should drive for.ConclusionConfucianism is often portrayed as an agnostic or even atheist philosophy where the focus is on political philosophy or virtue ethics. Indeed, the Confucian texts do not spend a large proportion of their discourse on spiritual or supernatural matters. However, I believe this is because Confucianism existed as a practical philosophy - the writers were not that interested in getting wrapped up in abstract arguments. Where they did though, when the philosophers were pressed to provide evidence for the source of their claims about why one should cultivate virtue and strive towards inner and external order, the answer always seemed to refer to Heaven in some shape or form.For Confucius, Heaven appears to be an arbiter of morality - his concept of the mandate of Heaven stuck all the way to the Qing dynasty. For Mencius, Heaven is the source of human nature - this view eventually became orthodox with Neo-Confucianism. For Xunzi, Heaven is the natural model of operation humans should mimic - his concept of Earth reflecting cosmic operations was symptomatic of an influential trend of thinking that became orthodox with the Han dynasty. In all then, these writers set the foundations of Heaven being an important concept of Chinese thinking, aesthetics, and governance for all Confucians throughout China’s imperial history.