February 2009 Newsletter: Fill & Download for Free

LostCousins Putting Relatives In Touch offers free standard membership.LostCousins identifies members who share the same ancestors by comparing the information each member has entered - and it’s based on data found from free, publicly available, census data.LostCousins also issues helpful twice-monthly (or thereabouts) newsletters, and every issue since February 2009 is online. When the paid-for sites such as Ancestry or FindMy Past Trace your Family Tree Online offer free trial periods, the newsletter will issue alerts.Also look at Family History Records - Free UK Genealogy which links to a large number of British records which have been transcribed by volunteers.Here’s an example: Treelines UK | Genealogical Research | Introduction is one that happens to contain details of some people in my own tree.Free Family Tree Maker is another site worth a visit.

There are two important pieces of information that are missing in this question:Country of birth of the candidate: Every candidate is subject to the Green Card quota of the country they are chargeable to- determined by their country of birth (not country of citizenship).For this one, I’m just going to assume that the question is asking about Indian-born applicants for Green Card (US Permanent Residency).2. Category of filing: The two major categories of filing, for Indians, tends to be family-based immigration and employment-based immigration, which further have sub-categories. The scenario greatly differs between the various sub-categories, which is why this information is required for this question to be answered.For this, I’m going to answer based on employment-based immigration, of the second category, since this is one of the most common categories of filing for Indian-born working professions.In the absence of these two substantive pieces of information, I can only re-iterate existing facts, without giving a more specific answer.As per the latest visa bulletin[1], as of today (Jan 20, 2020), for the 2nd employment-based immigration category, EB2 looks bleak.What the data in the red box means, is that as of Jan 2020, there is a Green Card available for those who filed for it in 19 May 2009, under the 2nd category.It is important to note, that just because 2009 and 2019, happen to be 10 years apart, does NOT mean that the backlog progresses by one year, every year.There is no data available in the public domain to make any accurate predictions about what the wait time for someone filing on a certain year is likely to be.However, it is quite accurate to say that absent any concrete steps by the US government to revisit the issue, it is not a stretch to say that Indian-born individuals who filed for Permanent Residency in the US (aka, Green Card), are going to have wait times that run into decades.And yes, it is reasonable to suggest that those who filed much later than 2009, should not hold their breaths and put their lives on hold, in hopes of a Green Card.Feb 28, 2020: Thank you for your interest in this answer. Please check out We The Legal for articles, news and an upcoming podcast on the topic of Legal immigration, which explores life is really like for legal immigrants in the US. You can also subscribe to our newsletter at SubscribeFootnotes[1] Visa Bulletin For February 2020

One of the most mind-blowing facts about Warren Buffett is that he makes bad investment decisions just like the rest of us. This doesn’t happen very often, but it does happen.Buffett is the third richest person in the world, and is considered the world’s greatest investor by most people. He’s earned investors an average return of 20% per year from 1965 to 2015, and is the single best answer to the claim that beating the market over an extended period is just plain luck.His worst investment decision was buying shares of oil producer ConocoPhillips as oil, and stock, prices were peaking in 2007-2008.Through Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), Buffett started buying shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) at the end of 2005. By the end of 2008 he had invested over US$7 billion in the company. COP made up 15 percent of Berkshire Hathaway’s entire portfolio, and it was the largest investment in a publicly traded company for Buffett up to that time.By mid-2008, oil prices were peaking near US$150 per barrel and COP share prices were over US$95 per share. With an average cost per share of $80, Buffett was in the black.A foundation of Buffett’s investment philosophy is to buy great businesses at a good price. At the time, on a price-to-earnings basis, COP shares were cheap compared to other big oil companies.One of the characteristics of a good business, according to Buffett, is a high barrier to entry. This means that a company operates in an industry where potential competitors would face high expenses and other difficulties to get a foothold. It also suggests that there’s something unique about the product.But COP was competing for market share with similar oil companies – some government-backed – around the world. And there’s nothing all that unique about the oil that COP makes… it’s pretty much the same as the oil that every other big oil company produces. Buffett somehow suspended his usual test for COP.Part of the problem is that Buffett may have subscribed to the theory of “peak oil” that was popular at the time. This concept holds that all of the world’s major oil discoveries had already been made – and that oil production had peaked. Meanwhile, energy consumption would continue to grow, as China and other emerging markets grew.As a result, the world would soon not have enough oil to meet the growing demand – so oil prices would stay high, and go even higher. In such a scenario, owning a big oil company, especially one trading at a valuation discount to its rivals, would make sense.But Buffett’s belief in “peak oil” was misplaced. Soon after peaking in July 2008, oil prices collapsed. Over the next six months, they tumbled over 60% as the world entered the global financial crisis. And subsequently, an explosion in the supply of shale oil (which is basically oil trapped in rocks) completely disproved the notion of peak oil. And the declining cost of solar and other forms of sustainable energy are also easing concerns about peak oil.As oil prices fell, so did the share price of COP. By February, 2009 they were down to US$35 per share. Over the course of 2009, as COP share prices were falling and then bottoming, Buffett sold 50% of his stake in the company. It is estimated that he lost about 55% on the shares. It was his biggest investment loss ever.In his 2009 letter to Berkshire shareholders (reviewing what they did in 2008), Buffett owned up to his mistake:“I told you in an earlier part of this report that last year I made a major mistake of commission (and maybe more; this one sticks out). Without urging from Charlie [Buffett’s business partner Charlie Munger] or anyone else, I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars.”Buffett helped make up for the loss by investing the proceeds from the sale of COP shares more wisely. As reported in the following year’s annual report, BRK used the cash raised from selling COP in part to invest in Dow Chemical and insurer Swiss Re, both of which performed strongly.This all shows that even the best investors can get caught up in fads, stray from their strategy and make bad investment decisions. But another mind-blowing fact about Buffett is that he acknowledged his mistake and moved on to better things – which can be really hard to do.For more insight and education about a ​range of finance and investment ​issues, you can also receive my free daily investment newsletter by clicking here.