Strategic Mega Trends: Fill & Download for Free

You could use the recent Project Drawdown report on 100 solutions for reversing climate change as input to the OT side of your next SWOT strategic planning session (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Strengths).Likewise the UN-backed Global Opportunity Explorer.With climate change acknowledged as a global mega trend by key research bodies (in Australia, the government’s CSIRO) you might miss opportunities if you’re over-focused on compliance and minimisation.

Rarely ever is there a single function, but the most common functions to focus solely on monitoring the market and competitors are 1. Strategic Marketing, or 2. Market Intelligence.Strategic Marketing is typically a corporate function and often directly reporting to or already at C- level.As a result, it is often swamped with requests from the different Business Units and, as a result, operates pretty much on a very global level. If you need more specific information you often need to obtain it yourself. But Strategic Marketing is often the place where market studies are bought and analyzed, global mega trends and regional trends evaluated and monitoring of large competitors may also be part of the job.Marketing Intelligence is a function that is typically part of the Marketing/ PM team.Once my PM team was approaching 8 people I saw the need to add a person dedicated to Market Intelligence and combined it with Business Intelligence- as both functions require a lot a data analysis, creation of dashboards etc.The combine MI and BI function was of immense value to the team because PM need this information but as it is only a small part of their job, never really have enough time for it and hardly ever get really good at it.

This is a fantastic question!Obviously, the truest answer is that only time will tell. That said, if McKinsey, BCG and Bain, were to be disrupted I think it would come at the hand of two mega trends.What are the two trends?Demand shifts to implementationDemand shifts to new fields of expertiseLet’s examine both of these in detail.Demand shifts to implementationThe hypothesis here is: if strategic thinking ability becomes less of a scarce resource, client demand will shift to the next scarce resource: knowledge and ability to successfully implement and execute the strategy successfully.First, let’s ask: has baseline strategic competency become less scarce? Yes, due to two reasons:Large, growing alumni base: Since MBB succeeded at delivering strategic recommendations, demand for their services has grown. In turn, they’ve staffed up to meet that demand and over time it’s meant that the alumni base from these firms has grown dramatically. This means large and growing alumni bases now exist at almost every firm which might consider hiring MBB for work.Strategic concepts codified and taught: For example, 15 years ago, Bain could sell a $1M case with NPS (Net Promoter Score) as a lynchpin. It as a novel, new, strategic lens to think about customer satisfaction. Today, any MBA from a top school could explain that concept to you in a matter of minutes. On a related note, the size of top MBA classes has seen staggering growth over the past few decades. HBS mints 2x as many MBAs annually as it did two decades ago. And on top of that, many MBA programs now have accelerated MBAs, exec MBAs, etc. To be clear, I’m not arguing that strategic thinking is dead but rather that it’s success has driven it’s diffusion.Thus, the scare resource which will drive value in the future is how to put strategy to work (eg implement and execute). Followers of the industry will recognize that despite the sterling reputations of these firms, they are praised for their insight, not execution and implementation.Demand shifts to new areas of expertiseOK, the second big wave is that new, fundamental key areas of expertise arise and McKinsey, BCG and Bain can not credibly pitch expertise in those areas. For example, let’s assume that use of machine learning and various forms of low level artificial intelligence become a key driver of value creation for Fortune 500 firms in the next decade.In the last few decades, McKinsey, BCG and Bain drove billions of dollars in revenue by advising on pricing decisions, acquisitions, global supply chains, etc. But what if in the next few decades, what companies demand isn’t pricing help (after all, they’ve got ex-MBB people in-house that know that now) but rather help building and implementing new machine learning models over their proprietary data sets?If, say, McKinsey has no credible expertise in a new key field(s), eg machine learning techniques, and has no credible expertise in being able to not only recommend the techniques but help the firm implement it, that could spell disaster for them.What are McK, BCG and Bain doing about it?The short answer is: a lot.On implementation, both McKinsey and BCG have moved aggressively here. McKinsey now explicitly has an “Implementation” practice and BCG routinely sells follow on implementation work, across all practices, that helps put their strategies to work. At McKinsey, this shift has even crept into their own self perception. Look at McKinsey’s own “What we do” section on their homepage. Here is a direct quote:We serve clients at every level of their organization, in whatever capacity we can be most useful, whether as a trusted advisor to top management or as a hands-on coach for front line employees[1]That is a pretty incredible statement from a firm that used to pride itself on only working for the CEO! The shift to implementation is real and these firms are taking it seriously (plus, there is more revenue to be made there!).Additional evidence of this transformation can be seen in new groups and new types of candidates they hire. McKinsey has established Digital Labs to help sharpen it’s ability to not only recommend but deliver on technology solutions. They hire designers, PMs, data scientists and engineers from this group - a stark difference from the typical MBA generalist. BCG is doing the same with it’s Digital Ventures group .Again, I’d argue that McKinsey and BCG are pushing hard to establish new competencies. What are the signs? Just look at the key pieces of research these firms have been putting out in the last year. For example, BCG’s report on autonomous driving[2]. And McKinsey’s report on automation, AI and machine learning[3]. And BCG’s report on blockchain’s impact.ConclusionYes, it’s possible McKinsey, BCG and Bain could be disrupted. But, as discussed above, I think McKinsey and BCG, in particular, are moving aggressively to counter the headwinds they’ll face. Finally, if you’re still reading and want more, I’ve written on this in detail here, including an interview with an ex-BCG consultant who’s now a strategy professor at a top European MBA program.Footnotes[1] What We Do[2] Automotive Industry Insights for Automakers & OEMs[3] Harnessing automation for a future that works