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They, if anything, may be erring on the side of the pessimistic, compared to the non-data-driven coverage of the 2018 elections.It is an undeniable fact—if you contend that Republicans are actually doing okay nationally right now—that Debbie Lesko did way worse than you’d expect a generic Republican to do in Arizona’s 8th, a largely white suburb of Phoenix that not only went for Trump by 21 percentage points but went 25 points for Mitt Romney in 2012. Her win, while still a win, is an 18-point underperformance of the district’s partisan lean in the 2016 presidential election. And, as they note, excuses for such an underperformance are virtually non-existent:There was no Roy Moore in the race, as there was in Alabama. Lesko wasn’t a particularly extremist candidate the way Moore was, and of course no one ever accused her of being a pedophile.There isn’t anything resembling a “Democratic heritage” the way there was in union-heavy PA-18. Those suburbs northwest of Phoenix have voted strongly Republican as far back as anyone can remember. Today registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, 42% to 25%.Hiral Tipirneni was badly outgunned financially. While she did outraise Lesko in direct campaign contributions, pro-Lesko outside groups soaked the district to the tune of $1.28 million, compared to under $300,000 for pro-Tipirneni groups.Tipirneni herself wasn’t even a particularly strong candidate, unlike Conor Lamb or Doug Jones, whom even Republicans admit had pretty much the best resumes Democrats could ask for. While Lesko faced some minor controversy early on over alleged illegal super PAC contributions, but whereas Lesko was a four-time elected state senator, Tipirneni had never held elected office and faced some controversy of her own in the form of a malpractice suit back in 2007.It can’t even be dismissed as an outlier, because it’s consistent with Conor Lamb’s 22-point overperformance and Doug Jones’s 28-point overperformance in the two most recent federal special elections. The only explanation for that 18-point underperformance of the district’s partisan lean is a terrible political environment for Republicans nationally.That’s the political context of FiveThirtyEight’s reporting on AZ-08. Given that context, I wouldn’t blame you for thinking the Republicans are about to get steamrolled in November.And yet, even given that same context, if you read the rest of the FiveThirtyEight articles and listen to their podcast, Nate Silver’s pretty consistent in putting the race for the House at a toss-up, with Democrats having the edge if anyone but with plenty of time for things to change. That’s a far cry from the “blue wave” talk you hear from a lot of other coverage of the midterms.If you’re asking me personally, I’m pretty much in agreement: pure toss-up, lotta time for things to change in either direction.218 Democratic seats projected, middle 50%: 206–233.

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Why does Schiff say "there was a plot to remove Yovanovitch, the Ukrainian ambassador? The President can remove any ambassador at any time he/she wants.”The plot was among the Ukranian players and involved contributing to politicians for access (bribery) to bring about her removal.Parnas and Fruman tried first with Sessions. “In May or June of 2018, the two committed to raise $20,000 for Sessions’ reelection. On May 9 that year, Sessions wrote Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urging him to remove Yovanovitch from her post in Kyiv.” Former Dallas Rep. Pete Sessions considered as Yovanovitch’s Ukraine replacement as he urged her removal, report saysAt around the same time, “America First Action reported receiving $325,000 from Global Energy Producers LLC (GEP), a company formed weeks prior to the donation. The new company did not even have a website. The available facts did not suggest that GEP had conducted any business or generated sufficient income during its short existence to cover a $325,000 political contribution.” … “Wire transfer records show that another LLC managed by Parnas. Aaron Investments I, LLC, transferred $325,000 to America First Action on May 17, 2018. The super PAC never disclosed receiving money from Aaron Investments I, LLC—it instead attributed the contribution to GEP.” …”Other wire transfer records show that just two days before making the super PAC contribution, Aaron Investments I, LLC received a $1.26 million transfer from the client trust account of a Miami real estate attorney named Russell S. Jacobs (the funds in a client trust account don’t belong to the attorney: they belong to the attorney’s client.) Absent that transfer, it appears that the LLC would not have had the funds to cover the $350,000 contribution. “ New Wire Transfer Records Reveal Shady Foreign Ties to a Pro-Trump Super PAC The FEC is investigating.So the plot goes far deeper than Trump not realizing he could just fire an ambassador.A timeline of former Dallas Rep. Pete Sessions’ involvement in the Ukraine scandal2 Giuliani Associates Arrested With One-Way Tickets at U.S. AirportThe main Trump super-PAC is covering up its own role in the impeachment scandal.The Pro-Trump Super PAC at the Center of the Ukraine Scandal Has Faced Multiple Campaign Finance Complaints — ProPublicaNew Wire Transfer Records Reveal Shady Foreign Ties to a Pro-Trump Super PACA Mystery $325,000 To A Pro-Trump Super PAC Confounds ExpertsHow A Complicated Web Connects 2 Soviet-Born Businessmen With The Impeachment InquiryArrest of Giuliani associates ensnares 'Congressman 1'