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What is the probability that extraterrestrial intelligence exists?
What are some signs that suggest that aliens existed earlier?We begin by offering the theory that life is rare, that the earth is unique, and the only planet in the universe with life (or at least intelligent life). This theory was primary theory as late as the 1960s.Lone Earth HypothesisThose who don’t believe in life beyond earth hold to a theory of the Lone Earth Hypothesis. They assert that in all the universe, the earth is unique. Other planets do not have the earth’s qualities of temperature, water, atmosphere, stability and astronomical uniqueness. Hence life endures here and only here. The evidence they site is that life has not been found anywhere else: not on the moon, the planets, planetary moons, in space debris or with spectroscopes or telescopes. There is absolutely no evidence of life beyond earth (so they say).A PRESUPPOSITION OF LIFEThe “New” TheoryThe counter arguments begin with the premise that there is strong evidence for life in the universe beyond earth.There are six main reasons for why scientists are optimistic in their belief regarding Extra-Terrestrial Life. These revolve around the Drake Equation, the Goldilocks Theory, Observable Evidence in Space, Extremophiles on Earth, the Age of the Galaxy and the Theory of Evolution.The Probability TheoryThe universe has at least 100 billion observable galaxies in the known universe. There are estimated 100-400 billion stars in our Milky Way Galaxy. Half the stars have planets, the average being eight planet per star, with hundreds of moons. The odds of the Earth being the only planet with life, even intelligent life, are 1 in 800 billion (for planets). If you include moons as possible habitats for life, the number goes to 1 in 8000 billion (1 in 8 Trillion). The odds are pretty low that we are alone.To help narrow this probability, Dr. Frank Drake created the Drake Equation, an analog that generates the probability of life on a world based on the necessary components for life. Using the Drake Equation, and submitting reasonable estimated values for the variables, one can suggest 10,000 civilized worlds in the Milky Way Galaxy. Ten thousand among Eight Trillion. That raises the odds, but it’s still 1 in 80 million. It’s still pretty low we are alone.This is one reason for belief in extra-terrestrials.Drake’s equation is a speculative hypothesis. We do not know what the necessary conditions for life are. We can take an educated guess. But, since we do not yet have a definition for life, nor do we know if life resides in the organism or is some other larger principle or natural law, we cannot construct an accurate analog.The Goldilocks TheorySome planets will be too hot for life. Some will be too cold. But, some will be just right. They will have liquid water and moderate temperature (two aspects we believe to be necessary for life). Having estimated some eight trillion planets in the galaxy, we can estimate how many planets have favorable conditions for life. Taking our own Earth as an average, we can postulate half of all G class stars have planets. An estimate of 8% of of stars are G class. That means in the Milky Way we have an estimated 800 million G class stars. If half have eight planets, then we have 3.2 billion planets. 1 in 8 planets falls in a zone of habitability around a star where water can remain liquid. That reduces our number 800 million in our galaxy.We need to recognize that not all G class stars are the same. Some, like our own sun, are carbon based. This allows for formation of organic molecules. But many stars are not carbon based. We do not know how much carbon is needed to make a planet life bearing. The Drake Equation says that we should be able to construct an analog estimates the likelihood of life.The Observable EvidenceAs astronomers study the stars, they find that all the necessary components of life (the atomic elements, the organic molecules and biochemical molecular compounds – from simple water to complex amino acids and proteins – have been found in space nebulae. There is nothing stopping life from forming in space. In addition, as space debris falls to earth, it carries with it all these atoms and chemical compounds. The debris also shows the structures of living organisms – traces and samples of cellular membranes. The elements of life and the structures of life floating around amid space makes it difficult to deny the presence of life elsewhere in space. So, we have all the elements and structures of life moving through space. However, we still have a low probability of life within such a vast volume.ExtremophilesIf one searches among the many different species of life on earth, one is astonished at how diverse life can actually be. There is life in the boiling waters of the hot springs of Yellowstone National Park. There is life under the ice of Antarctica. There is life in salty brine of the Great Salt Lake, and life in the methane ice of the Pacific Ocean. Many of earth’s extreme habitats are the same as those of exoplanet found else where in the Milky Way Galaxy. Earth does not have a unique environment.The we are alone is very low. The presence of all the components and structures of life exist throughout the Galaxy. The same habitats for life can be found throughout the Galaxy, even in our own Solar System.The Age of the GalaxyThe Galaxy is approximately Thirteen Billion years old. Life as we know it on earth began to appear about three billion years ago. There are many stars and planets far older than earth. This means there has been plenty of time for life to form, using the same elements, chemicals, structures, habitats and processes we find on earth. There is nothing unique about earth in space or time that would prevent life from forming elsewhere.Consider also, that earth has not always been an oxygen rich, moderately temperate world. It went from a hot molten planet with poisonous gases, to a water world of methane and carbon dioxide, to having continents covered in oxygen breathing species. The of life and habitat on earth are virtually infinite.A FOLLOW UP THEORY OF EVOLUTIONThe Theory of EvolutionOn earth, life evolves. It began with microbes and over the last three billion years, has diversified into a tree of life. That tree includes the intelligent life of civilized homo sapiens. If civilized life happened here, there is calculatable probability that it will happen again. Since the Galaxy (or even larger, the Universe), has such astronomically large numbers, even the tiniest odds of duplication reasonable odds. One in Ten Thousand are bad odds if there were only 1000 planets. That would mean a 90% chance of there being nothing. But, in a Galaxy of 300 billion, that means there are likely 30 Million opportunities, which make for pretty good odds.An important aspect of life on earth is that it evolves. Biologists are confident that the evolution of life is a universal constant.It is likely that the evolutionary tree includes a branch of sentient intelligence. As with the arguments for life in the universe above, there is good probability.The earth produced human intelligence from life on a planet 4.5 billion years old. Astronomers are aware that the galaxy and many of its stars are 13.5 billion years old. It is quite reasonable that many civilizations have emerged, and perhaps passed.Within the evidences put forth in the hypotheses of researchers of ancient aliens includes:· Extraterrestrial architecture· Extraterrestrial art· Geo-glyphs· Humanity’s religious traditions· Human encounters by reliable witnesses· Supposed “alien” skeletonsNone of these alleged evidences are proofs. Indeed, very archeologists concur that these are truly of extraterrestrial origin. They are so few that theories of “Ancient Aliens,” though popular, are considered to be non-scientific speculation.So, as with life itself, despite the high probability, there is no physical evidence of extraterrestrial intelligent life; of alien civilizations.ConclusionThere are six main reasons for why scientists are optimistic in their belief regarding Extra-Terrestrial Life. These revolve around the Drake Equation for determining the probability of habitable planets, the Goldilocks Theory for determining habitable zones around a star, Observable Evidence in Space of components and structures of life, Extremophiles on Earth who live in very alien-like habitats, the Age of the Galaxy compared to that of earth, and the Theory of Evolution—that life evolves from small, simple forms to larger, complex forms. The real issues is, as Enrico Fermi pointed out; if life is indeed so probable in the vast recesses of space, why have we not encountered it?Physics, Herschel, Drake Equation, Exoplanet, Exploration, Space.com, Extremophiles, Ranker, Wikipedia: Ancient Astronauts
What are some tips and tricks for high school? How can one “play” the GPA rat race? What are some social tips? How can you make your teachers like you?
This answer is probably only useful for American high school students. It's my impression that high schools (or high school equivalents) in other countries are alternately worse/better in qualitatively different ways such that these wouldn't be as useful. This is also derived from my own experience (i.e. only a single data point) and speaks to things that I did and/or things that I feel I should have done, and which of those things were worthwhile and which were a waste of time. It's also more or less targeted at the intellectual/nerdy types that seem to be more likely to frequent Quora, haha.Here are some things that may appear important at the time but really aren't:1) GPA and other academic achievements are not very important in and of themselves. You should think of these as symptoms or side-effects of other, more important things you should be doing. But attaining a certain GPA or particular academic award is absolutely the wrong goal and will get you nowhere in life. You heard me right: getting a 4.0+ GPA in high school is not going to help you in life. Moreover, pretty much every award or accolade you achieve in high school is utterly useless and completely uninteresting to anyone post-high school. Think about that. At best, it will be a curiosity to be brought up in casual conversation or maybe something people will make fun of you for. I say this as someone with a bedroom back home filled with random awards won during high school. It's okay to win them if the activity you're doing is fun or fulfilling on its own merits, but don't let the award be the target.2) In general, high school isn't worth very much in terms of lifetime educational value. I say this as someone who went to a (supposedly) "good" public high school. After exiting high school and going to college (and then entering the post-college working world), I was flabbergasted at all the simplistic, partially-true, or outright false ideas I had been taught or otherwise exposed to during my high school years. Except for maybe mathematics, it's almost all superseded by much more advanced and complete theories (the hard sciences), more thorough and in-depth understanding (literature), and more complex and variegated truths (social sciences). You honestly aren't learning that much. Get ready to have your mind blown after you graduate.3) Do not bother trying to achieve perfect attendance. Don't skip school habitually, but if your school offers some kind of incentive for perfect attendance, it is totally worthless.What should you be doing instead?1) Your GPA and academic achievements are a sort of proxy for how well you can learn the stuff you've been exposed to, and to some degree, how motivated of a person you are. College admissions boards care about that, but it is mostly to tell them how well you're going to do at the school. Assuming you are looking to go to college (an increasingly less cost-effective thing to do nowadays in the US...), you need to do well enough to go to the school you want. That's all. The rest of the time, you should just try to learn what you can in and out of class, but do not expend extra energy trying to get those last few GPA basis points. Instead...2) You need to learn to socialize. My impression of high school social life in America is that it's kind of vapid and stupid (it was when I was there). Nevertheless, you should be taking this time in your life to go hang out with other people and learn to date. It turns out that later success in the world is very, very heavily predicated on how good your social skills are, and you don't learn those from a class or a book. Trust me, you're not. You're definitely not learning them from Quora. You learn it from spending time with people, doing awkward social things, failing, having stupid crushes and relationships and heartbreak, and if you're not already the most popular kid in school, you need to start spending time doing all that stuff now. Yes, you should do your homework, but after you get it done, get out of the house and go out with friends. All of that useless "socializing" is actually key practice for developing social skills - which later in life are called "business skills." (There, doesn't that make it sound more useful?) Do your best to leave your insecurities behind and learn to be cool. This goes double if you are a huge nerd. You can be a cool nerd. Just get out there.3) Engage in athletics. It turns out that physical health is really important. However, based on physiology, it doesn't become a quality of life factor for most people until their mid/late-twenties so if you don't exercise, you can still get by (i.e. you won't get fat while you're in your teens and early twenties). But it turns out that it takes a few years of diligent exercise and/or athletics to condition your body into generally healthy function, so if you have been exercising or playing sports for years, you are years ahead of anyone who starts later. If you believe that the gnostic and intellectual is all that's important, you're wrong. The mind-body duality is false, the keen functioning of your mind is enhanced by vigorous and regular exercise. I did not know this when I was young, and it's only in the recent years as the intellectual demands of my career continued to rise that I realized that I needed to target high levels of physical health in order to boost and maintain peak mental functioning. If you're not already doing so, take up a sport or join a team now in high school. It will not only affect your academic achievement; it will probably enhance it. Also, it will likely help with #2.4) The key things you should be working to build are motivation and willpower. This is because the other things you're being run through (e.g. academics) aren't actually true - or they are, at best, partially true. What you're doing is preparing for life after high school, where persistence and the ability to work hard are worth more than anything else. These things are built by repeated application, so just try to repeatedly do things that are hard for you, like work on really large projects, take on a sport where performance is difficult, learn a skill outside of school, etc.5) Don't compete, create. This one is a key mindset thing for your whole life. The American school system (and much of work life) is designed to place you into zero-sum situations where you're competing against other people for limited amounts of resources or recognition. You're often competing to see who's the best, and there can only be one (or a few) of the best, and that person (or people) get the pass to move on to the next level, where the process repeats. It's a tremendous waste of resources. There are other ways to live life and - arguably - be much more successful and productive doing it, which is to carve out new areas of expertise and productive activity through creative endeavor. This is why I say that GPA and academics achievements (especially competitive ones) are not as worth it. You should try to learn and create new things. This is different things to different people, but you need to explore and find out what it means to you now. The difference is that if you're competing, you might have two (or n) people competing, each one expending, say, 100, 99, or 98 units of energy, and the person who expended 100 units of energy wins the whole prize, and the 99 + 98 units of energy from the other two participants have been completely wasted. Instead, if all those people worked on their own thing, expending 100, 99, and 98 units of energy, it could have all been worthwhile and invested into whatever they happened to create. Schools - especially high schools - do a terrible job of this latter thing, so watch out for it. Make sure your effort will still count even if you do not win, because later in life you will frequently not win, and you cannot afford to waste your energy.-----The biggest, and most overarching thing to keep in mind is that you are, basically, in a larval stage right now. Thus, the most important thing right now is to marshal your resources in preparation for future growth and opportunities. None of the "goals" at this stage in your life are real life goals that matter. Even e.g. getting into the right college is not a key goal - if you fail to do that, you will still do absolutely fine if you have prepared yourself adequately for adult life. Make sure your focus your energies on building yourself up and not the temporary, intermediate goals that have been set in front of you.
I got 8077 in COMEDK. Is it good to take ECE in a core college or CSE in a lower college?
Hey listen, if you do not have an idea of what’s your interest is, which major portion of 12th passouts don’t have (thanks to our education system), then you should definitely go for CSE because there is a high chance (very high) that you will end up getting placed in an IT firm only… after 4 years !And also ECE is one of the toughest among all engineering courses/branches available (electrical will beat it XD) .. so if your thinking of coding along with ECE that’s gonna make your 4 years of college life hectic a lot !! Just imagine going classes from 9am-4pm studying ECE hard subjects 5 days a week and professors at colleges sucks and most just attend classes for attendence! and then coming back and studying for exams and also studying CSE/coding for 4 years !! WHAT THE HECK !! JUST IMAGINE!!Instead give your all time to CSE/coding itself and do interships , projects , GSOC , etc it will help you to crack high packages itself .. you know its 2020 all that matters is SKILLS that you have and imagine maybe in 2024 things are going to change a lot .. explore yourself in these four years .(you might find something new you wanna do like aman dhattarwal started youtube and now he has created a whole new business out of it )instead of studying two engineering branches simultaneouly !!(ECE with coding)So i would suggest if your literally interested in ECE(circuits, vlsi, signal processing etc) then only take it over CSE !Else take CSE bruh !!!!PS- Edits and Constructive criticism are welcomed in the comment section !!Image source: Google images