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What damage does global warming bring?
Far less than the potential alternative of global cooling. Fear of global warming is bad science according to extensive research of the earth’s warming history. Temperatures are declining now for thousands of years after the glaciation of 18,000 years ago and we should do nothing to reduce warming. Because of natural variability and albedo feedback there is no danger of runaway global warming. There is real danger of a return to frigid conditions of the last Little Ice Age.Abundant evidence of robust growth during long past global warming.ANALYSISThe earth is in the Holocene interglacial of the Quaternary Ice Age and at the peak of warming.In depth analysis of data shows there is no evidence global warming / climate change over the necessary long time scale.Temperatures are in a 7000 year decline.We are sliding down in temperatures and will probably end up similar to the Little Ice age temperatures with massive flooding from record winter snowfall.Holocene warming has made civilization possible because the evidence is warm weather is always more beneficial than cold.We can expect falling into a cooling period like the Little Ice Age soon from the evidence of the decline of solar activity of Cycle 24-25.Further the greatest fear is the next cycle of glaciation not global warming as we are at the peak of the current interglacial.During the last glaciation most of the USA and Canada became inhospitable covered in ice > 1 mile thick.There is no evidence that Co2 including our emissions from fossil fuels has any effect on the climate.Solar cycles and activity correlates well with temperature not Co2.The sun has gone blank with few sunspots leading to the earth cooling.Most of earth’s history has been tropical with robust growth of plants and animals and not like the current ice age.Humans are a tropical specie and thrive in warmer weather.Fear of global warming is bad science and terrible public policy.REFERENCESHow Global Warming Made Civilization PossibleWhen Antarctica was a tropical paradiseGeological drilling under Antarctica suggests the polar region has seen global warming beforeRobin McKie Sat 16 Jul 2011 19.04 EDTAn impression of a tropical Antarctica as it may have appeared 100 million years ago. Image: Robert Nicholls/paleocreations.comAntarctica is the coldest, most desolate place on Earth, a land of barren mountains buried beneath a two-mile thick ice cap. Freezing winds batter its shores while week-long blizzards frequently sweep its glaciers.Yet this icy vision turns out to be exceptional. For most of the past 100 million years, the south pole was a tropical paradise, it transpires."It was a green beautiful place," said Prof Jane Francis, of Leeds University's School of Earth and Environment. "Lots of furry mammals including possums and beavers lived there. The weather was tropical. It is only in the recent geological past that it got so cold."Prof Francis was speaking last week at the International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences in Edinburgh. More than 500 polar researchers gathered to discuss the latest details of their studies, research that has disturbing implications for the planet's future. Drilling projects and satellite surveys show the whole world, not just Antarctica, was affected by temperature rises and that these were linked, closely, to fluctuations in levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.WE ARE A TROPICAL SPECIETropical nations are expected to hold 50% of the world’s population by 2050, up from 40% now.©IEMBICKI/MARKZPHOTO.COMTropical nations are expected to hold 50% of the world’s population by 2050, up from 40% now.©IEMBICKI/MARKZPHOTO.COMExpanding tropics will play greater global role, report predictsBy Allie WilkinsonJun. 29, 2014 , 8:30 AMBy 2050, half of the world’s population will reside in the tropics—the relatively warm belt that girdles the globe—according to State of the Tropics, a hefty report released today. Rapid population growth, coupled with economic growth, means that the region’s influence will grow in coming decades, the authors of the 500-page tome predict. At the same time, tropical conditions are expanding poleward as a result of climate change, but at a slower rate than previously believed.“The tropical population is expected to exceed that of the rest of the world in the late 2030s, confirming just how crucial the Tropics are to the world’s future,” said Sandra Harding, project convener and vice chancellor of Australia’s James Cook University, in a statement. “We must rethink the world’s priorities on aid, development, research and education.”The result of a 3-year collaboration between 12 prominent tropical research institutions, State of the Tropics grew out of an effort to acknowledge the region as an environmental and geopolitical entity in its own right. Geographers define the tropics as the belt that is centered on Earth’s equator, between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn (each 23.5° of latitude off the equator). Although tropical regions vary considerably, they are “typically warm and experience little seasonal change in daily temperatures.” These geographic and environmental commonalities play a key part of shaping human societies in the region, which is currently home to about 40% of the world’s population, the authors add.“Fact 1: We are in an ice age, the Quaternary to name it, and have been for 2.58 million years. Given that the previous four ice ages lasted for right at 30 my, we likely have more than 27 my to go (the two ice ages that kicked things off were of snowball-Earth proportions and lasted much longer. Ice ages occur every 155 my, and we don’t know why. That’s a much longer cycle than Milankovitch cycles can account for. Those tell us things like why North Africa has been a desert for 5 ky when before that it was a populated savanna.“Fact 2: We are in an interglacial, the Holocene epoch to give it its name, a respite from glaciation. During an ice age, interglacials occur at 90 to 125 ky intervals and last approximately 7 to 14 ky. The Holocene is 11.7 ky old, but there is new evidence that the Allerød oscillation 13.9 ky ago was the actual start with a meteor strike 1 ky in producing the Younger Dryas cooling.* If we are actually, 13.9 ky into our interglacial, then natural cycles tell us we will be rapidly descending back into glaciation in 5… 4… 3…[Charles Tips QUORA writer and former Science Editor organized these facts.]“The combination of glacials and interglacials looks like this:THE sun continues to be very quiet and it has been without sunspots this year 62% of the time as we approach what is likely to be one of the deepest solar minimums in a long, long time.Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1977 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis CenterNew research shows fear of global warming is bad science.Marine species evolved, thrived, and diversified in 35 to 40°C ocean temperatures and CO2 concentrations “5-10x higher than present-day values” (Voosen, 2019 and Henkes et al., 2018).(Voosen, 2019 and Henkes et al., 2018).Image Source: Wunsch, 2018In the near-surface layer of the ocean (0-20 m), temperatures rose more than 5 times faster from 1900 to 1945 (~1.2°C, 0.27°C/decade) than they did during 1945 to 2010 (~0.3°C, 0.046°C/decade), which is the opposite of what would be expected if CO2 emissions were driving thermal changes in the ocean (Gouretski et al., 2012).Image Source: Gouretski et al., 2012II. The astounding warmth of the distant past – when marine species thrivedA year ago, Henkes et al. (2018) determined marine animals “thrived” in water temperatures that averaged 35-40°C in “widespread regions of the oceans,” which is more than 20°C warmer than today’s average ocean surface temperature (~16°C).The authors note that today’s tropical temperatures (25-30°C) can be equated to the “icehouse” conditions of the Carboniferous.Further, when marine animals thrived in waters >20°C warmer than today, this warmth was accompanied by CO2 levels “5-10x higher than present-day values” – about 2000 to 4000 ppm.Image Source: Henkes et al., 2018In a new paper published in Science, Voosen, 2019 uses the data compiled by Henkes et al. (2018) to further reiterate“Some 450 million years ago, ocean waters averaged 35°C to 40°C, more than 20°C warmer than today. Yet marine life thrived, even diversified and to construct a graphical representation of global ocean temperatures from the Paleozoic onwards. Voosen affirms “marine life diversified in extreme heat” and “mammals evolved during a warm period.”Image Source: Voosen, 2019In sum, coupling the 1) insignificant thermal ocean changes during modern times and the 2) extreme warmth (and high CO2 levels) of the distant past would seem to support the contention that marine animals are not currently in any sort of obvious danger from either rapid warming or high CO2 levels.https://notrickszone.com/2019/07...NO, global warming has not happened and is not happening now.The evidence shows temperatures have hardly increased over the past 140 years at 0.8 ‘ C and are now falling at 0.4 ‘ C. This small increase is easily explained by solar activity and natural variability. Measuring global temperatures at this level of precision is not credible and it is certainly not cause for concern as climate always seesaws hot and cold everywhere so the range of statistical error must be very high.Figure 1: The world's surface air temperature change ("anomaly"), relative to the world's mean temperature of 58° F or 14.5° C, averaged over land and oceans from 1975 to 20082. Inset are two periods of no warming or cooling within this overall warming trend.Bombshell study: Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Government Climate DataGuest Blogger / July 6, 2017Cartoon by Josh at cartoonsbyjosh.comGuest essay by Michael BastaschA new study found adjustments made to global surface temperature readings by scientists in recent years “are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data.”“Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever – despite current claims of record setting warming,” according to a study published June 27 by two scientists and a veteran statistician.The peer-reviewed study tried to validate current surface temperature datasets managed by NASA, NOAA and the UK’s Met Office, all of which make adjustments to raw thermometer readings. Skeptics of man-made global warming have criticized the adjustments.Climate scientists often apply adjustments to surface temperature thermometers to account for “biases” in the data. The new study doesn’t question the adjustments themselves but notes nearly all of them increase the warming trend.Basically, “cyclical pattern in the earlier reported data has very nearly been ‘adjusted’ out” of temperature readings taken from weather stations, buoys, ships and other sources.In fact, almost all the surface temperature warming adjustments cool past temperatures and warm more current records, increasing the warming trend, according to the study’s authors.“Nearly all of the warming they are now showing are in the adjustments,” Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo, a study co-author, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview. “Each dataset pushed down the 1940s warming and pushed up the current warming.”“You would think that when you make adjustments you’d sometimes get warming and sometimes get cooling. That’s almost never happened,” said D’Aleo, who co-authored the study with statistician James Wallace and Cato Institute climate scientist Craig Idso.Their study found measurements “nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history,” which was “nearly always accomplished by systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern.”“The conclusive findings of this research are that the three [global average surface temperature] data sets are not a valid representation of reality,” the study found. “In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data.”Based on these results, the study’s authors claim the science underpinning the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) authority to regulate greenhouse gases “is invalidated.”The new study will be included in petitions by conservative groups to the EPA to reconsider the 2009 endangerment finding, which gave the agency its legal authority to regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.Sam Kazman, an attorney with the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), said the study added an “important new piece of evidence to this debate” over whether to reopen the endangerment finding. CEI petitioned EPA to reopen the endangerment finding in February.“I think this adds a very strong new element to it,” Kazman told TheDCNF. “It’s enough reason to open things formally and open public comment on the charges we make.”Since President Donald Trump ordered EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to review the Clean Power Plan, there’s been speculation the administration would reopen the endangerment finding to new scrutiny.The Obama-era document used three lines of evidence to claim such emissions from vehicles “endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations.”D’Aleo and Wallace filed a petition with EPA on behalf of their group, the Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council (CHECC). They relied on past their past research, which found one of EPA’s lines of evidence “simply does not exist in the real world.”Their 2016 study “failed to find that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 13 critically important temperature time series data analyzed.”“In sum, all three of the lines of evidence relied upon by EPA to attribute warming to human GHG emissions are invalid,” reads CHCC’s petition. “The Endangerment Finding itself is therefore invalid and should be reconsidered”.Pruitt’s largely been silent on whether or not he would reopen the endangerment finding, but the administrator did say he was spearheading a red team exercise to tackle climate science.Secretary of Energy Rick Perry also came out in favor of red-blue team exercises, which are used by the military and intelligence agencies to expose any vulnerabilities to systems or strategies.Environmental activists and climate scientists largely panned the idea, with some even arguing it would be “dangerous” to elevate minority scientific opinions.“Such calls for special teams of investigators are not about honest scientific debate,” wrote climate scientist Ben Santer and Kerry Emanuel and historian and activist Naomi Oreskes.“They are dangerous attempts to elevate the status of minority opinions, and to undercut the legitimacy, objectivity and transparency of existing climate science,” the three wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed.“Frankly, I think you could do a red-blue team exercise as part of reviewing the endangerment finding,” Kazman said.Though Kazman did warn a red team exercise could be a double-edged sword if not done correctly. He worries some scientists not supportive of the idea could undermine the process from the inside and use it to grandstand.Originally published at The Daily Caller, republished here under their content license.Just as important is when there was truly global warming in the past marine and other life thrived and this is when Co2 levels were 5 X HIGHER THAN TODYAY!We are in the Holocene interglacial warmer period of our Quaternary Ice Age of the past 2.5 million years. What is happening as to warming is no different and in fact cooler than temperatures of the Medieval Warm period where humans, plants and animals thrived.Holocene climatic optimum - WikipediaThis graph is taken from Wikipedia. It shows eight different reconstructions of Holocene temperature. The thick black line is the average of these. Time progresses from left to right.On this graph the Stone Age is shown only about one degree warmer than present day, but most sources mention that Scandinavian Stone Age was about 2-3 degrees warmer than the present; this need not to be mutually excluding statements, because the curve reconstructs the entire Earth's temperature, and on higher latitudes the temperature variations were greater than about equator.Some reconstructions show a vertical dramatic increase in temperature around the year 2000, but it seems not reasonable to the author, since that kind of graphs cannot possibly show temperature in specific years, it must necessarily be smoothed by a kind of mathematical rolling average, perhaps with periods of hundred years, and then a high temperature in a single year, for example, 2004 will be much less visible.The trend seems to be that Holocene's highest temperature was reached in the Hunter Stone Age about 8,000 years before present, thereafter the temperature has generally been steadily falling, however, superimposed by many cold and warm periods, including the modern warm period.However, generally speaking, the Holocene represents an amazing stable climate, where the cooling through the period has been limited to a few degrees.History of Earth's ClimateThis chart shows the seesaw hot and cold blips over 100 + years but ending where the temperature started and now returning to the colder temperatures from 1950 to 1980.Big data finds the Medieval Warm Period – no denial hereJennifer MarohasyJennifer Marohasy22 August 20177:49 AMAccording to author Leo Tolstoy, born at the very end of the Little Ice Age, in quite a cold country:The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.So, our new technical paper in GeoResJ (vol. 14, pages 36-46) will likely be ignored. Because after applying the latest big data technique to six 2,000 year-long proxy-temperature series we cannot confirm that recent warming is anything but natural – what might have occurred anyway, even if there was no industrial revolution.Over the last few years, I’ve worked with Dr John Abbot using artificial neural networks (ANN) to forecast monthly rainfall. We now have a bunch of papers in international climate science journals showing these forecasts to be more skilful than output from general circulation models.During the past year, we’ve extended this work to estimating what global temperatures would have been during the twentieth century in the absence of human-emission of carbon dioxide.We began by deconstructing the six-proxy series from different geographic regions – series already published in the mainstream climate science literature. One of these, the Northern Hemisphere composite series begins in 50 AD, ends in the year 2000, and is derived from studies of pollen, lake sediments, stalagmites and boreholes.Typical of most such temperature series, it zigzags up and down while showing two rising trends: the first peaks about 1200 AD and corresponds with a period known as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), while the second peaks in 1980 and then shows decline. In between, is the Little Ice Age (LIA), which according to the Northern Hemisphere composite bottomed-out in 1650 AD. (Of course, the MWP corresponded with a period of generally good harvests in England – when men dressed in tunics and built grand cathedrals with tall spires. It preceded the LIA when there was famine and the Great Plague of London.)Ignoring for the moment the MWP and LIA, you might want to simply dismiss this temperature series on the basis it peaks in 1980: it doesn’t continue to rise to the very end of the record: to the year 2000?In fact, this decline is typical of most such proxy reconstructions – derived from pollen, stalagmites, boreholes, coral cores and especially tree rings. Within mainstream climate science the decline after 1980 is referred to as “the divergence problem”, and then hidden.In denial of this problem, leading climate scientists have been known to even graft temperature measurements from thermometers onto the proxy record after 1980 to literally ‘hide the decline’. Phil Jones, the head of the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, aptly described the technique as a ‘trick’.Grafting thermometer data onto the end of the proxy record generally ‘fixes’ the problem after 1980, while remodelling effectively flattens the Medieval Warm Period.There are, however, multiple lines of evidence indicating it was about a degree warmer across Europe during the MWP – corresponding with the 1200 AD rise in our Northern Hemisphere composite. In fact, there are oodles of published technical papers based on proxy records that provide a relatively warm temperature profile for this period. This was before the Little Ice Age when it was too cold to inhabit Greenland.The modern inhabitation of Upernavik, in north west Greenland, only began in 1826, which corresponds with the beginning of the industrial age. So, the end of the Little Ice Age corresponds with the beginning of industrialisation. But did industrialisation cause the global warming? Tolstoy’s ‘intelligent man’ would immediately reply: But yes!In our new paper in GeoResJ, we make the assumption that an artificial neural network – remember our big data/machine learning technique – trained on proxy temperatures up until 1830, would be able to forecast the combined effect of natural climate cycles through the twentieth century.Using the proxy record from the Northern Hemisphere composite, decomposing this through signal analysis and then using the resulting component sine waves as input into an ANN, John Abbot and I generated forecasts for the period from 1830 to 2000.Our results show up to 1°C of warming. The average divergence between the proxy temperature record and our ANN projection is just 0.09 degree Celsius. This suggests that even if there had been no industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels, there would have still been warming through the twentieth century – to at least 1980, and of almost 1°C.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, relying on General Circulation Models, and giving us the Paris Accord, also estimates warming of approximately 1°C, but claims this is all our fault (human caused).For more information, including charts and a link to the full paper read Jennifer Marohasy’s latest blog post.Illustration: Detail from Peasants before an Inn, Jan Steen, The Mauritshuis Royal Picture Gallery, The Hague.The greatest concern about the climate is the risk we are returning to the devastation of seesaw glaciation of the LITTLE ICE AGE. An abrupt return of falling temperatures is very concerning. NASA Goddard Institute finds warming of 0.8* Celsius (1.4* Fahrenheit) since 1880. This means an average of only 0.0175 degree Celsius temperature increase annually. This minute amount is within the statistical error of data or natural variability of climate.The earth is cooling not warming!It is not disputed that we are in an ice age from 2.5 million years ago so have temperatures changed upward enough that we break out into the nest global warming period?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ic...An ice age is a long period of reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental and polar icesheets and alpine glaciers. ... By this definition, we are in an interglacial period—the Holocene.Earth is currently in the Quaternary glaciation, known in popular terminology as the Ice Age.Individual pulses of cold climate are termed "glacial periods" (or, alternatively, "glacials", "glaciations", "glacial stages", "stadials", "stades", or colloquially, "ice ages"), and intermittent warm periods are called "interglacials" or "interstadials" with both climatic pulses part of the Quaternary or other periods in Earth's history.In the terminology of glaciology, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in both northern and southern hemispheres.The earth is cooling as temperatures declineLikely coldest April since 1895 – U.S. farmers delay planting cropsAnthony Watts / 1 day ago April 26, 2018Farmers are suffering as the cold, wet spring has put a stunning halt to agriculture. Ice Age Farmer Report – 19 Apr 2018Soil temperatures are below normal, and not conducive to planting yet.Ice Age Farmer highly recommends putting in your own greenhouse.“According to Mike Tannura of T-Storm Weather, there’s a strong correlation between historically cold April months and below trend yields. On Monday, Tannura told AgriTalk After The Bell host Chip Flory that April 2018 will go down as one of the three coldest Aprils since 1895.“Based on the data we’re looking at today, there’s a chance it could be the coldest of the entire period going back to 1895,” he said.Here are some of the Ice Age Farmer’s warnings:·Folks in Ohio are not able to start planting.·Folks in Nebraska are not able to start planting.·Folks in Illinois are not able to start planting.·Folks in North Dakota are not able to start planting.·Folks in South Dakota are not able to start planting.·None of Iowa’s farmland is ready for plantingClimate Scam Collapsing: ‘Reality Is Cooling…MORE Snowfall’Published on November 19, 2018Written by Tony HellerThe global warming scam is beginning to collapse. Even CBS News Boston is starting to understand.BOSTON (CBS) — Despite the snow blitz of 2015, many baby boomers still insist that, overall, we don’t get the harsh bitter cold and deep snowy winters like we did in the good ole days.Weather records prove that just isn’t the case and despite the ongoing claims that snows are becoming rare and hurting winter sports, this millennium has been a blessing to snow lovers and winter sports enthusiasts.The last decade stands out like a sore thumb! It has had 29 major impact northeast winter storms with NO previous 10-year period with more than 10 storms! In Boston, 7 out of the last 10 years have produced snowfall above the average 43.7 inches.2008-09: 65.9″2009-10: 35.7″2010-11: 81.0″2011-12: 9.3″2012-13: 63.4″2013-14: 58.9″2014-15: 110.6″ Greatest On Record Back To 18722015-16: 36.1″2016-17: 47.6″2017-18: 59.9″https://principia-scientific.org...Monday, 01 October 2018THE SUN DRIVES THE CLIMATE NOT MINUTE AMOUNTS NEAR ZERO OF HUMAN EMISSIONS OF CO2. SOLAR CYCLES MATTER MOST TO TEMPERATURE CHANGE.THE ABOVE CHART SHOWS VERY STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN SOLAR CYCLES AND TEMPERATURE.This solar evidence destroys the unproven human made climate change idea.Recent in depth academic research supports the robustness of the 11 year solar cycle to explain natural variability not Co2.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L14809, doi:10.1029/2011GL047964, 2011On the robustness of the solar cycle signal in the Pacific regionS. Bal,1,2 S. Schimanke,1,3 T. Spangehl,1 and U. Cubasch1Received 6 May 2011; revised 9 June 2011; accepted 10 June 2011; published 27 July 2011.[1] The potential role of the stratosphere for the 11‐year solar cycle signal in the Pacific region is investigated by idealized simulations using a coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model. The model includes a detailed representation of the stratosphere and accounts for changes in stratospheric heating rates from prescribed time dependent variations of ozone and spectrally high resolved solar irradiance. Three transient simulations are performed spanning 21 solar cycles each. The simulations use slightly different ozone perturbations representing uncertainties of solar induced ozone variations. The model reproduces the main features of the 20th century observed solar response. A persistent mean sea level pressure response to solar forcing is found for the eastern North Pacific extending over North America. Moreover, there is evidence for a La Niña‐like response assigned to solar maximum conditions with below normal SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific, reduced equatorial precipitation, enhanced off‐equatorial precipita- tion and an El Niño‐like response a couple of years later, thus confirming the response to solar forcing at the surface seen in earlier studies. The amplitude of the solar signal in the Pacific region depends to a great extent on the choice of the centennial period averaged. Citation: Bal, S., S. Schimanke, T. Spangehl, and U. Cubasch (2011), On the robustness of the solar cycle signal in the Pacific region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14809, doi:10.1029/2011GL047964.1. Introduction[2] It has been suggested that large scale near surface climate variability during the 20th century is related to the 11‐year cycle of the sun [White and Tourree, 2003]. The quasi decadal oscillation (QDO) reveals similar spatial characteristics as the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is similarly governed by a delayed action oscillator mechanism in the tropical Pacific [White and Tourree, 2003; White et al., 2003]. While ENSO associated with 3‐to 7‐year period variability is an internally generated mode of the coupled ocean‐atmosphere system, model studies indicate that solar forcing is necessary to generate the QDO of 9‐to 13‐year period [White and Liu, 2008a]. Moreover, there is evidence for a phase lock between QDO, ENSO type vari- ability and the 11‐year solar cycle resulting in a distinct temporal evolution of the solar signal [White and Liu, 2008a, 2008b]. Based on observations spanning the period from the late 19th century to present, van Loon et al. [2004, 2007] find1Institut fu ̈ r Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany. 2Department of Physics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. 3Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping,Sweden.Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union. 0094‐8276/11/2011GL047964a La Niña like response with lower sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific mainly for solar maximum peak years. Meehl et al. [2008] confirmed a pro- posed mechanism on the basis of ensemble experiments with two different ocean‐atmosphere general circulation models (AO‐GCM). The resulting ensemble mean response patterns are similar to the observations in the Pacific region but the amplitude is only about half the magnitude of the observed response. A possible explanation for this underestimation is the neglect of stratospheric forcing and coupling mechanisms [e.g., Shindell et al., 2006].[3] Coupledchemistry‐climatemodels(CCM)havesofar been able to simulate important features of the stratospheric solar signal [e.g., Marsh et al., 2007]. In a recent study Meehl et al. [2009] successfully reproduce the strength of the observed response in the tropical Pacific region when employing a CCM coupled to a deep ocean model. However, their simulation reveals some discrepancies with respect to the exact shape and temporal evolution of the response. As their conclusions solely rely on a single realization with only one model, important aspects that need to be addressed are the role of (i) internal variability and (ii) ozone related sen- sitivities for the simulated/observed signals. In the present study we assess the associated uncertainties based on an ensemble of idealized simulations performed with a strato- sphere resolving AO‐GCM.The whole global warming saga is a group think movement using fear and prejudice to sell more newspapers and buy more votes. When you see the true non-science motives behind the radical claims of media and alarmists then you understand the fudged data and wrong hypothesis about the climate and how it really works.Dr. Endenhofer reveals the real climate agenda of the UN and other lefty alarmists.As to global warming Mother Nature has let the sun go to sleep resulting in cooling temperatures and weather that is reminiscent of the Little Ice Age.Monday, 01 October 2018NASA Sees Climate Cooling Trend Thanks to Low Sun ActivityWritten by James MurphyThe climate alarmists just can’t catch a break. NASA is reporting that the sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age; and Earth’s atmosphere is responding in kind.So, start pumping out that CO2, everyone. We’re going to need all the greenhouse gases we can get.“We see a cooling trend,” said Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”The new data is coming from NASA’s Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry or SABER instrument, which is onboard the space agency’s Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. SABER monitors infrared radiation from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a vital role in the energy output of our thermosphere, the very top level of our atmosphere.“The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” said Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.Who knew that that big yellow ball of light in the sky had such a big influence on our climate?There’s a bit of good news in all of this. When the thermosphere cools, it literally shrinks, therefore reducing aerodynamic drag on satellites in low Earth orbit. In effect, the shrinking thermosphere increases a satellite’s lifetime.But that appears to be where the good news ends, unless you prefer cold weather and increased space junk. “The bad news,” according to Dr. Tony Phillips, editor of SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids, is: “It also delays the natural decay of space junk, resulting in a more cluttered environment around Earth.”Mlynczak and his colleagues have created the Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI), which measures how much NO is dumped from the Thermosphere into outer space. During Solar Maximum the TCI number is very high. At times of Solar Minimum, TCI is low.“Right now, (TCI) is very low indeed,” said Mlynczak. “SABER is currently measuring 33 billion Watts of infrared power from NO. That’s ten times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle."SABER has been in orbit for only 17 years, but Mlynczak and the scientists at NASA’s Langley Research Center have been able to recreate TCI measurements back to the 1940s. “SABER taught us how to do this by revealing how TCI depends on other variables such as geomagnetic activity and the sun’s UV output — things that have been measured for decades,” said Mlynczak.In fact, TCI numbers now, in the closing months of 2018, are very close to setting record lows since measurements began. “We’re not quite there yet,” Mlynczak reports. “but it could happen in a matter of months.”The new NASA findings are in line with studies released by UC-San Diego and Northumbria University in Great Britain last year, both of which predict a Grand Solar Minimum in coming decades due to low sunspot activity. Both studies predicted sun activity similar to the Maunder Minimum of the mid-17th to early 18th centuries, which coincided to a time known as the Little Ice Age, during which temperatures were much lower than those of today.If all of this seems as if NASA is contradicting itself, you’re right — sort of. After all, NASA also reported last week that Arctic sea ice was at its sixth lowest level since measuring began. Isn’t that a sure sign of global warming?All any of this “proves” is that we have, at best, a cursory understanding of Earth’s incredibly complex climate system. So when mainstream media and carbon-credit salesman Al Gore breathlessly warn you that we must do something about climate change, it’s all right to step back, take a deep breath, and realize that we don’t have the knowledge, skill or resources to have much effect on the Earth’s climate. God — and that big yellow ball of light in the sky — have much more impact on our climate than we ever could.MY PUBLISHED COMMENTJames Matkin •The earth is actually cooling and NASA grudgingly begins to admit reality over the fiction of failed computer modelling by the iPCC. So much waste and damage from the futile attempt to reduce our Co2 emissions for a colder climate. The climate alarmists have ignored solar natural variability not because of the science but because of their left wing economic agenda. They have ignored leading science papers like the 400 page study THE NEGLECTED SUN Why the Sun Precludes Climate Catastrophe, by Professor Fritz Vahreholt and Dr. Sebastian Luning. This study demonstrates that "the critical cause of global temperature change has been, and continues to be, the sun's activity." As NASA admits the sun is in a cooling phase and the solar cycles make impossible "the catastrophic prospects put forward by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the alarmist agenda dominant in contemporary Western politics."https://www.thenewamerican.com/t...Rise in temperatures and CO2 follow each other closely in climate changeby University of CopenhagenAn ice core from the deep drilling through the ice sheet at Law Dome in Antarctica.The greatest climate change the world has seen in the last 100,000 years was the transition from the ice age to the warm interglacial period. New research from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen indicates that, contrary to previous opinion, the rise in temperature and the rise in the atmospheric CO2follow each other closely in terms of time. The results have been published in the scientific journal, Climate of the Past.In the warmer climate the atmospheric content of CO2is naturally higher. The gas CO2(carbon dioxide) is a green-house gas that absorbs heat radiation from the Earth and thus keeps the Earth warm. In the shift between ice ages and interglacial periods the atmospheric content of CO2helps to intensify the natural climate variations.It had previously been thought that as the temperature began to rise at the end of the ice age approximately 19,000 years ago, an increase in the amount of CO2in the atmosphere followed with a delay of up to 1,000 years."Our analyses of ice cores from the ice sheet in Antarctica shows that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere follows the rise in Antarctic temperatures very closely and is staggered by a few hundred years at most," explains Sune Olander Rasmussen, Associate Professor and centre coordinator at the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of CopenhagenCo2 has no effect on the climate as it follows rise in temperatures that is the result of solar cycles.No Empirical Evidence forCO2 Causing Global WarmingSome say historically, that increased CO2levels in the atmosphere have created periods of global warming throughout our history. They cite the Vostok, Antarctica ice core data (1) as proof of this seeFigure 1. However, the problem is that whoever came up with that analysis had thecause and effect reversed. If you look closely at the graph, it is obvious that global warming always comes first. At temperature (blue line) spike always comes before the CO2concentration (red line) spike. After a temperature spike from the sun, the oceans start to warm and eventually liberate more CO2 due to its reduced solubility in seawater at higher temperature. Another relevant question is, what other mechanism could possibly cause CO2 concentrations to increase other than a solar spike from the sun? Where else could the CO2come from, especially during those times before the industrial age?Figure 1. Vostok Antarctica Ice Core Data (420,000years Back from Present)Recent empirical data (2) show that atmospheric CO2concentrations have no discernible effect on global temperature, see Figure 2.The temperature plots shown are from two sources; the National Aeronauticsand Space Administration's (NASA) Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and the United Kingdom's (UK) Hadley Climate Research Unit. The CO2 plot is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.Figure 2. Earth temperature and CO2concentration 1998-2008While CO2levels increased some 20 ppmv over the past 10 years, global temperatures did not increase as predicted by the IPCC models - they fell! The earth's temperature from 1998 to 2008 dropped by 0.65 - 0.78 o C depending on which temperature set is chosen.https://www.researchgate.net/pub...After record breaking temperatures, some cooler weather hits parts of EuropeBut the reprieve was not universal, with Germany measuring a record high temperature for June.People watch the sunrise this morning on the mountain Brocken in Schiere, Germany,Image: Matthias Bein/dpa via APA….Today, in northern and western France, hot-weather warnings were lifted days after the country posted successive record temperatures as it sizzled alongside Italy, Spain and some central European nations.The mercury was predicted to drop by as much as 10 degrees Celsius in Paris today but to continue rising in central and eastern Germany and in Italy before rainstorms cool things down by Tuesday.On Sunday, a record 38.9 Celsius was measured in Bad Kreuznach in Rhineland-Palatinate state, according to data from the national weather service, wiping out the previous high of 38.6 degrees recorded Wednesday in two other towns.Following on from high temperatures of the last few days, things were a bit cooler across the country today. Some showers and moderate winds kep temperatures a bit lower.The week ahead is looking mostly dry with a mix of sunshine and cloudy spells, and temperatures ranging from 15 to 22 degrees in some areas.MY PUBLISHED COMMENTJim MatkinNo one living or dead has witnessed climate change if they are true to science, because climate change is only a statistic that measures weather over centuries or millennia. The statistic comes from weather, but it is not the weather hot or cold.“Climate change is any significant long-term change in the expected patterns of average weather of a region (or the whole Earth) over a significant period of time. W” .The alarmists media ignore science by portraying the recent heat wave in France as linked to climate change. This is impossible to know and in fact after a short 4 days France is now facing unusually colder weather for this time of year. The alarmists fooled again by ignoring the fact we are in the e ice cores from the two bores at Siple Dome (red) and Byrd Holocene warming of the inter-glaciation of the Quaternary Ice Age for the past 2.5 million years and temperatures are swinging from hot (Medieval Warming) to cold (Little Ice Ag) in a chaotic and random fashion. This is not global warming.https://www.thejournal.ie/heatwa...INCONVENIENT : ‘The World Is Literally A Greener Place Than It Was Twenty Years Ago’ – NASAPosted: April 25, 2019 | Author: Jamie Spry | Filed under: Alarmist media, Carbon Dioxide, Climate Change, Climatism, CO2, Environmentalism, Fact Check, Government Grants/Funding, NASA, Satellite Data | Tags: Carbon Dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions, Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation, China, Climate Change, Climatism, CO2, forestry, Global greening, Global Warming, India, nasa, NASA Earth Observatory, Science and Environment|Leave a commentChina and India Lead the Way in Greening | NASA (Climatism edit)“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.” – Bertrand Russel***DON’T expect to see this ‘good’ environmental news on the mainstream media anytime soon.WHEN you’re in the business of demonising carbon dioxide and frightening theThunberg’skiddies for political and ideological ends, such good news comes as a rather unwelcome message!Via NASA Earth Observatory :China and India Lead the Way in GreeningThe world is literally a greener place than it was twenty years ago, and data from NASA satellites has revealed a counterintuitive source for much of this new foliage. A new study shows that China and India—the world’s most populous countries—are leading the increase in greening on land. The effect comes mostly from ambitious tree-planting programs in China and intensive agriculture in both countries.Ranga Myneni of Boston University and colleagues first detected the greening phenomenon in satellite data from the mid-1990s, but they did not know whether human activity was a chief cause. They then set out to track the total amount of Earth’s land area covered by vegetation and how it changed over time.The research team found that global green leaf area has increased by 5 percent since the early 2000s, an area equivalent to all of the Amazon rainforests. At least 25 percent of that gain came in China. Overall, one-third of Earth’s vegetated lands are greening, while 5 percent are growing browner. The study was published on February 11, 2019, in the journalNature Sustainability.The maps on this page show the increase or decrease in green vegetation—measured in average leaf area per year—in different regions of the world between 2000 and 2017. Note that the maps are not measuring the overall greenness, which explains why the Amazon and eastern North America do not stand out, among other forested areas.“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9 percent of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation,” said lead author Chi Chen of Boston University. “That is a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation.”globalgreening_tamo_2017This study was made possible thanks to a two-decade-long data record from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. An advantage of MODIS is the intensive coverage they provide in space and time: the sensors have captured up to four shots of nearly every place on Earth, every day, for the past 20 years.“This long-term data lets us dig deeper,” said Rama Nemani, a research scientist at NASA’s Ames Research Center and a co-author of the study. “When the greening of the Earth was first observed, we thought it was due to a warmer, wetter climate and fertilization from the added carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Now with the MODIS data, we see that humans are also contributing.”China’s outsized contribution to the global greening trend comes in large part from its programs to conserve and expand forests (about 42 percent of the greening contribution). These programs were developed in an effort to reduce the effects of soil erosion, air pollution, and climate change.Another 32 percent of the greening change in China, and 82 percent in India, comes from intensive cultivation of food crops. The land area used to grow crops in China and India has not changed much since the early 2000s. Yet both countries have greatly increased both their annual total green leaf area and their food production in order to feed their large populations. The agricultural greening was achieved through multiple cropping practices, whereby a field is replanted to produce another harvest several times a year. Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by 35 to 40 percent since 2000.countrieschart_tamo_2017How the greening trend may change in the future depends on numerous factors. For example, increased food production in India is facilitated by groundwater irrigation. If the groundwater is depleted, this trend may change. The researchers also pointed out that the gain in greenness around the world does not necessarily offset the loss of natural vegetation in tropical regions such as Brazil and Indonesia. There are consequences for sustainability and biodiversity in those ecosystems beyond the simple greenness of the landscape.Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there is a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 1970s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss was not good. In the 1990s, people realized it, and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.”NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using data courtesy of Chen et al.,(2019). Story by Abby Tabor, NASA Ames Research Center, with Mike Carlowicz, Earth Observatory.*GLOBAL GREENING…“A quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25.” – NASANASA previously reported on the ‘greening of the earth’ thanks to the CO2 ‘fertilisation’ effect.HOWEVER, such good news was again carefully omitted by the mainstream media and environmental activists keen to preserve their ‘catastrophic’global warmingclimate change narrative and continue their demonisation of life-giving gas carbon dioxide, deceptively referring to it as “carbon pollution” :NASA ON (inconvenient) GLOBAL GREENING“A quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25.” – NASACO2 is making Earth greener—for now – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet*BIAS BY OMISSION – THE WORST FORM OF PROPAGANDACSIRO Censoring Their Own Climate ResearchIN 2013, the CSIRO commissioned a study that found “Deserts ‘greening’ from rising carbon dioxide: Green foliage boosted across the world’s arid regions.”THE ‘greening’ of deserts, thanks to rising CO2, happens to be a very unwelcome message for the environmental movement and apparently for the CSIRO, too! So, they simply removed the study from their website!http-::www.csiro.au:404.aspx?item=%2fportals%2fmedia%2fdeserts-greening-from-rising-co2&user=extranet%5cAnonymous&site=Phoenix.pnghttp://www.csiro.au/404.aspx?item=%2fportals%2fmedia%2fdeserts-greening-from-rising-co2&user=extranet%5cAnonymous&site=PhoenixCSIRO’s peer-reviewed study can be found at Science Daily :Deserts ‘greening’ from rising carbon dioxide- Green foliage boosted across the world’s arid regions — ScienceDailyDeserts ‘greening’ from rising carbon dioxide: Green foliage boosted across the world’s arid regions — ScienceDailyH/t @FrankWi74044551•••MORE on Global Greening :THE Most Amazing Greening On Earth | ClimatismNATURE STUDY : Global Forest Loss Over Past 35 Years More Than Offset By New Forest Growth | ClimatismCSIRO Censoring Their Own Climate Research | ClimatismGood News! We Have Lots More Forest Than We Thought | Climatism
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