Planning And Zoning Commission July 8 2013: Fill & Download for Free

Before answering and elaborating the logic behind Number of platforms build under certain Type, we need to first understand the aspects of Constructing a Warship.Requirement of New Platform :- A lot of Strategy and design Planning goes behind the constructions of warships, unlike other defence constructions, building a warship, has got one of the longest processing and executing time. Requirement and accordingly the design of new warships are done, by keeping in thought process, the future warfare and the prerequisite to win a battle both conventional and unconventional. To meet the requirements of future, planning are done is present, and that’s how we come up with construction plan and timing. So, by the time project reaches its end, that is final ship in class getting commissioned, there will new advancements in technologies and future requirement will vary, and thus new project will be initiated to accommodate this new advancements.Timeline & Designing :-Timeline of construction of warship, majorly depends upon the ability of the Shipyard to take up the task, and required technology to build one. Once order is placed with shipyard, they come up with a plan for whole 10–11 years, which is average time a whole class of warship takes to get commissioned. Project 15B first ship i.e. INS Vishakhapatnam, was launched in 2013, and last one INS Porbandar is expected to get commissioned by 2024.Design of a warship varies a lot, as lot of new advancements take place while a class of ship is under construction. Even though, designers consider the future requirements of the ship warfare scenarios, by the time a class of ship commissioning gets completed, there are already new design requirements for next upcoming future. That is why, under a certain class of ship, number are kept to match the requirement analysis.Budget :- There is no two thought, that Indian Navy’s budget allocation has seen low light in few decades immediately after Independence, well soon political masters understood the importance of power projection in sea and using same for flourishment of diplomacy. Now, Naval Budget, being in good condition compared to past decades, Indian Navy’s leap for new technological aspects becomes positive. It is universal truth that, in most of the defence deals, budget consideration are given high priority over technological leap, and recent example of this can be seen in ongoing Project 75, for building six scorpion class submarines.Technology and Weaponry:- As discussed in earlier points, technology is something which is advancing rapidly. No, wonder, major allies power became super power due to WWI and WWII, furthermore cold war is another era, where, technologies developed at a rapid phase to counter one’s enemy. Coming to construction, when a ship’s design is finalised, same is sticked to till the last boat of the class gets commissioned, which even though the ship’s design gives enough room to incorporate various new technologies, same is only done, once all the previous design is implemented. One may contend, why not update ship at the time of construction itself, the reason is “previous point”. As i said, lot depends on budget.Shipyard’s Profit:- In the end, it all comes down to profit and loss of a shipyard, Shipyard profit depends on number of different orders, to put it in layman’s term, a shipyard will earn for profit if it makes 8 ships of 4 different class, 2 each, as compared to making all 8 ships of same class. It is simply to explain the aspect, don’t take numbers with real numbers, along with it, there are many other major factors to contribute towards it.State-owned Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd. (MDL) and Garden Reach Shipbuilders Engineers (GRSE) are building complex weapon-intensive vessels such as destroyers, stealth frigates and corvettes."While state-owned Goa Shipyard Ltd. and Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. have capability to build various categories of vessels like patrol vessels, tankers, landing platform docks, survey vessels, tugs, barges, etc., MDL is also constructing submarines for the Indian Navy,"In addition, MDL, GRSE, Goa Shipyard and Hindustan Shipyard have embarked on a comprehensive modernization program.At a cost of $114.3 million, MDL is creating new facilities, including a module workshop, a 300-ton Goliath crane, a new wet basin and cradle assembly shop, and will switch over from unit assembly to block assembly, enabling integrated modular construction of warships.MDL will also be able to substantially reduce the construction period for warships and will be able to build three warships to five warships and three to six submarines at a time.GRSE is establishing a $90.4 million modernization plan to create new facilities, including a modern hull shop, upgrading of the Tribon ship design software, improving the capacity of inclined berth, etc. In addition, GRSE is building a 10,000-ton capacity dry dock, a 4,500-ton capacity inclined berth, a pier and associated systems.Likewise, with funding of $71.4 million, Goa Shipyard is creating infrastructure for indigenous construction of mine countermeasure vessels. The shipyard is also upgrading the capacity of its lift facility from 1,400 tons to 6,000 tons and creating additional construction berths to build three offshore petrol vessels at a time.Goa is also improving the capability of two berths for repair of smaller warships.Hindustan Shipyard is also spending $68.2 million to revamp its entire shipbuilding and ship repair facilities.Currently, the Indian Navy is building 48 warships at domestic shipyards and by 2027, it plans to have 198 warships compared with its current fleet of 137 warships.All the above Construction aspects, point out at one logical conclusion, make less, but evolve and make strong every time.In every modern naval fleet, destroyers play critical role due to their versatility, agility, fire power and longer reach. Introduced at the beginnings of 20th century as Torpedo Boat Destroyers" (TBD) were "large, swift, and powerfully armed torpedo boats designed to destroy other torpedo boats. After Russo-Japanese War, destroyers began to evolve as true long range multi-mission ships.Two World Wars during the last century played a critical role in evolution of destroyers. Aerial threat and advanced German U-boats, emerged as a nightmare for the Allied navies. This forced naval engineers and ship designers to come with the new designs of destroyers giving it capability against these two new threats. They were fitted with new anti-aircraft guns, radar, and forward-launched ASW weapons, in addition to their existing light guns, depth charges, and torpedoes.After the World War II, the advent of guided missile was a major advancement in maritime warfare allowing the destroyers to expand their combatant roles and taking over the missions previously fulfilled by much larger ships i.e. battleships and cruisers. This expansion of operational capability of destroyers, for the first time, allowed them to perform independent operations as well.Today, only few nations have the capability to design, build and commission guided missile destroyers. The operational orbit of destroyer today, includes land attacks and strike missions (through cruise missiles), fleet defense against aerial threats (through on board long range radars and SAM system), anti-submarine (through torpedo) and anti-ship operations (through anti-ship missiles). Earlier generation of naval destroyers were not multi-mission capable. They were either fleet air defense ship or ballistic missile ship. County Class of UK and Kashin Class of USSR, introduced in 1958-60, were basically air defense destroyer designs.As the miniaturization of nuclear war-heads has turned cruise missiles into nuclear cruise missiles, guided missile destroyers have emerged as supplementary platform for any nation’s nuclear triad strengthening its 2nd strike capability.Along with the evolution of missiles, radars and onboard sensors of a destroyer, the missile launchers have evolved as well. From early single and twin arm launchers (MK 13 & MK 11) to modern Vertical Launch System (MK 41 VLS), this evolution of launchers has enabled the modern ships to carry a lot more guided missiles (both SAM and SSM) in the form of a missile magazine.Despite all their multi mission nature, fact remains that destroyers due to their larger size can be detected by enemy submarines and Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). In order to overcome this intrinsic shortcoming of destroyers, stealth factor was introduced in the design philosophy of the destroyers.Indian Navy's Modern Guided Missile Destroyers:Today, Indian Navy is operating 'Rajput' class (5000 tons), 'Delhi' class (6700 tons) and Kolkata Class (7400 tons) guided missile destroyers along with number of guided missile frigates. First two classes of ships are of conventional design and offer very little to no capability to evade enemy ships tracking them in open sea. Rajput Class destroyers (INS Rajput, INS Rana, INS Ranjit, INS Ranvir, INS Ranvijay) are Russian built. In late 1970s, after scrapping British built R Class and Hunt Class destroyers, the Indian Navy initiated ‘Project-15’ to design and build indigenous destroyers later to be known as 'Delhi' Class. The project was executed by Mazagon Dockyard Limited (MDL). It took some 20 years for MDL to deliver first ship (INS Delhi) to Indian Navy for commissioning in 1997. Subsequently two more ships (INS Mysore and INS Mumbai) were built and commissioned in Indian Navy in 1999 and 2001 respectively. Having influences of both Soviet and Western ships, Delhi class can operate in complete Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) environment. The ship is equipped with Kh-35 'Switchblade' anti-ship missiles (Range 130 Km) and its air defense system is being upgraded with Israeli Barak-1 SAM system (Range 32 Km).As a fellow up of the Delhi class, Indian Navy in May 2000, MDL began work on Project-15A. This was the evolution for Indian shipbuilding industry and major aspect of new project was inclusion of stealth features in the ship design. While pursuing that, more than 2000 modifications were made in Delhi class design. After these modifications, a new class of Indian destroyers (Kolkata Class) emerged. Kolkata class incorporated the latest technologies in sensors, weapons and navigation controls of the ship. Main weapon is Indo-Russian supersonic BrahMos cruise missile (2 x 8 cells). In air defense role, the ship would be fitted with Israeli made Barak-8 SAM system (Range 70 Km). 32 of these missiles would be carried in VLS launch magazine. Israel also provided main sensors and processing systems for this class of ship. The first of Kolkata class was commissioned in August 2014. The remaining two - Kochi and Chennai - are expected to join service by early 2016. Right now, Kolkata class destroyers are the biggest destroyer ships designed and built in India.Just like Delhi class, Kolkata class also has a follow on design project known as ‘Project 15-B’ or Vishakhapatnam Class. MDL launched INS Vishakhapatnam, the first of four 7,300 tons Project 15B guided missile destroyers being built for the Indian Navy (IN), in Mumbai on 20th April. IN officials said it would be commissioned in July 2018 and delivery of the three follow-on platforms at two year intervals will be completed by 2024 at an overall cost of INR 293.40 billion (USD4.89 billion).Key differences of Project 15A and Project 15B include the relocation of its sonar to the bow from the hull; the design of its mast, which houses its main radar, has also been revised to further reduce its radar cross section.Other changes include reshaping of the hull to accentuate its stealth features and the addition of a rail-less helicopter traversing system.According to IN, INS Vishakhapatnam would be fitted with the IAI-Elta-designed EL/M-2248 Multi-Function Surveillance Threat Alert Radar (MF-STAR) to provide guidance to 32 Barak-8/NG air-defense missiles.The destroyer will also be fitted with IAI-Elta EL/M-2238 S-band (2 to 4 GHz) 3-D volume air surveillance radar (STAR) radar and a Thales LW-08 D-band air search radar.INS Vishakhapatnam 's principal weapon will be 16 BrahMos anti-ship/ land attack cruise missiles, co-developed by the DRDO and Russia.The ship's anti-submarine warfare capability includes twin-tube launchers and RBU-6000 SMERCH-2 rocket launchersA license-built 76 mm Oto Melara Super Rapid Gun, four Russian AK-630 close-in weapon systems and a 127 mm main gun, which is still under negotiation.It can also carry two multiple-role helicopters (e.g., Sea King or HAL Dhruv helicopters).Total Atmosphere Control (TAC) System; this system will enable the crew to operate the ship in regions of NBC fall out.According to Asian Defense military blog, "In its quest to become a powerful three-dimensional blue-water force and maintain a fleet of around 140 "surface and sub-surface combatants", the Navy already has 30 warships and six submarines on order in various Indian shipyards."Apart from this buildup of guided missile destroyers, Indian Navy is pursuing an ambitious $16 billion USD plan to modernize its surface and sub-surface fleets. Project-17 is yet another ambitious project to build 6,000 tons stealth frigates.According to Chietigj Bajpaee, an Indian defense analyst, Indian has ambitious plans for the development of a 160-plus ship navy, comprising three aircraft carrier battle groups by 2022. More than 40 warships and submarines are on order or under construction at the country's three major shipyards. These include stealth destroyers, anti-submarine corvettes and stealth frigates. These vessels will supplement and in some cases replace the country's older destroyers.According to some estimates, Currently, Indian Navy is the world’s fifth largest maritime force but it would take 3rd position, after China and US, within the next 15 years when Indian Navy would eventually complete its modernization.Indian security establishment and strategic community consider the rise of India’s trade through sea as the primary driving force behind this ambitious modernization as Bajpaee put it in his interview.But for a more objective analysis of this ambitious Indian naval modernization, the prevailing bitter truths of regional geopolitics like traditional rivalries between the countries like China-Japan maritime tension, India-Pakistan, India-China energy competition and China-US standoff over Taiwan, cannot be overlooked. These geopolitical realities have reshaped the Asian security architecture for the 21st century, where arms race, increased defense spending and a desire for ubiquitous military presence in the Indian Ocean are dominant trends.The strategic maritime competition between China and the US in the South China Sea is the biggest driver behind the Indian naval ambitions. As an indirect consequence of this strategic competition and Indian counter-strategy to it, the maritime balance of power in Arabian Sea between Pakistani and Indian naval forces is rapidly tipping in favor of India; thus creating serious maritime security concerns for regional stability and Pakistan’s seawards defenses.Implication of Indian Naval Expansion for the Maritime Power of Balance in Arabian Sea:By looking at the design philosophy of Indian naval fleet, it becomes evident that Indian Navy is preparing for complete NBC/ WMDs scenarios. The pursuance of nuclear triad remains the ultimate long term objective in Indian strategic thinking to deter Chinese military modernization and expanding influence in the Indian Ocean.In this strategic milieu, the inclusion of stealth guided missile destroyers would further this growing maritime disparity between Pakistan and India. A scenario involving multiple Indian navy ships, armed with dozens of nuclear armed missiles, would be no less than a nightmare for small Pakistan Navy.Even we take nuclear WMDs out of the picture, the conventional arsenal of IN poses serious challenge to Pakistani naval installations and other industrial targets.Indian Threat & State of Pakistan Navy:The establishment of NSFC, back in May 2012, was perceived as Pakistan's announcement of existence of country's maritime strategic deterrence in form of a nuclear submarine project. Back in 2012, ISPR issued its press release which read, "The force, which is the custodian of the nation's 2nd strike capability, will strengthen Pakistan's policy of credible minimum deterrence and ensure regional stability.” This statement cemented the impression further that Pakistan having nuclear submarine program. It has been three years since the NSFC was established but still Pakistan's surface fleet remains precariously exposed to Indian Navy's overwhelming technical and numerical superiority in Arabian Sea. Nation is still looking towards the strategic decision makers and security managers to put Pakistan's 2nd strike capability in operational state in order to give PN much needed deterrence capability.PN currently does not operate any single ship armed with long range land attack cruise missile to give it a true guided missile capability. Although, the Ex-Type 21 ships (Tariq Class) acquired from the UK in 1993-94 are classified as destroyers in PN but fact remains that these ships were built as frigates originally. These PN Ships were rearmed with American and Chinese anti-ship missiles (Harpoon and C-802). But Harpoons do not give any advantage to Pakistan Navy as Indian Navy has also acquired Harpoon Block II missiles (Range 130 Km) for its latest P-8I MPA aircraft.But Pakistan's maritime security worries in context of Indian naval modernization do not end there; PN's sub-surface fleet, which can provide a considerable deterrence and sea-denial capabilities against enemy's overwhelmingly larger surface fleet is also precariously out numbered.PN currently has only 5 conventional submarines (3 Agosta 90-B and 2 Agosta-70) and 2 Agosta-70s have reached their retirement age. Since 2010, PN has been looking for various options to strengthen its submarine fleet but so far no confirmed deal has been signed. Latest news suggest that PN may eventually acquire Chinese made conventional diesel submarines. Originally, PN requires 12 submarines. This requirement was laid out in Armed Forces Development Plan (AFDP) 2015. It is high time for PN to expedite the acquisition process. Apart from getting Chinese submarines, Pakistan is also looking for surplus Western subs. In this pursuit, Turkey can provide Pakistan with German Type-209 submarines which it wanted to modernize but then went for latest Type-214.Pakistan also needs to increase the strength of its surface fleet. News is that PN is considering to acquire 4 more F-22P type frigates. Pakistan must look at the potential acquisition of Chinese destroyers. Chinese platforms would allow Pakistan to integrate Pakistani cruise missile Babur on them giving Pakistan the deterrence against the maritime threats from India.Redefining Maritime Minimum Credible Deterrence:Pakistan Navy cannot match its Indian counterpart one to one basis neither it is required keeping in minds the size of Pakistan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and coastline length. But then there is a third and more relevant factor in this equation of indo-Pak maritime power projection which PN will has to balance. The third factor is growing expeditionary nature of Indian Naval modernization. Evidently, Indian Navy is seeking to build ‘army maneuver through sea’ capability in joint ops doctrine with Indian Army. Minimum credible deterrence threshold for maritime arena, in Arabian Sea, will have to be redefined by PN. The share of Pakistan Navy in annual defense allocation must also be redefined as per this reevaluated minimum credible deterrence parameters in maritime power projection. Acquisition of more F-22P frigates and some Chinese built destroyers would become the eventual consequence of any such reevaluation. PN will have to become a capable brown water navy with limited expeditionary capabilities.Seeking Self-Reliance:Pakistan Navy needs to take a page from Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) success in self-reliance in ship building. Just like PAF’s JF-17 Thunder, PN needs to initiate a joint venture with China or Turkey to design and build indigenous destroyer. Pakistan must become a player in the geopolitical game being played in Indian Ocean rather than being a pawn. Building a strong ship building industry is also vital for Pakistan from pure economic perspective. It can attract foreign customer and earn foreign reserve.But this is a mid to long term plan. For now, the most realistic option for Pakistan would be to concentrate on enhancing two basic maritime capabilities against the Indian Navy's surface fleet at war footings i.e. Sea denial and Coastal defense.Sea Denial:For rapid sea denial, what Pakistan Navy can do is to concentrate on aerial operations capabilities in open Ocean and raise the number of missile boats in surface fleet. Pakistan Air Force has already expanded the operational orbit of JF-17 with integrating CM-400AKG super-sonic anti-ship missiles. Both PAF and PN must expedite the deliveries of these planes to PN. According to media reports, PN is interested in 30 JF-17s to raise 2 squadrons. Air launched version of C-802 anti-ship missile is also being integrated on Thunders, Keeping in mind the size of Mig-29K fleet of Indian Navy and Su-30MKI fleet of Indian Air Force (which can be deployed along with Kh-35 anti-ship missile in join operations with Indian Navy), Pakistan Navy must revised its requirement for JF-17s to 60-70 to raise minimum 4 squadrons. How these aircraft integrate with existing fleet of Pakistan naval aviation wing would determine their effectiveness during the actual air-sea battle.Coastal Defense:For coastal defense, Pakistan has built fast missile boats, these small boats can prove invaluable defense against growing numbers of Indian guided missile destroyer fleet. These boats are easier to build and maintain with minimum resources and time. Media reports suggest that Pakistan has increased its requirement of Azmat class Fast Attack Craft (FAC) to 8 from current strength of 2. It will help in coastal defense but due to their limited green water capabilities (shorter range, lower displacement) they cannot perform sea denial operations in open sea far from coast line but these ships (each armed with 8 C-802) are in-arguably the best option for coastal defense.It will be only prudent to remind once again what renowned American maritime strategist Alfred Mahan once said about the Indian Ocean and its importance in the 21st century when global trade has made this Ocean strategically the most important geography on the globe.“Oceans quiet in their majesty or violent in relentless force……he who controls them, the air above, the depths below, plots the destiny of man”— Admiral John S. McCain, Jr.Thank You.!Sources:-http://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/wp-content/themes/defence/pdf/inip.pdfANALYSIS | Indian Guided Missile Destroyers and Balance of Power in Arabian Sea by Shahzad Masood Roomidomestic-shipyards-build-all-indian-naval-warshipsMilitary Analysis: Indian NavyVisakhapatnam-class destroyer - Wikipediahttp://www.joinindiannavy.gov.in/en

Well, because although Deng’s strategical thoughts were concentrated into one phrase called “韬光养晦”, what he said was much more than this. Otherwise, how could he be considered the core of CCP’s 2nd generation leader team?During the late 80’s and early 90’s when Eastern Europe changed dramatically and USSR collapsed, China was facing life-and-death matters regarding what to do and where to go.He developed short-term guidance to deal with specific incidents, which were “冷静观察、稳住阵脚、沉着应付”. They mean: to observe calmly, to hold our position firmly, to deal with them steadily.To answer the request of some countries and people asking China to “take over the flag”, Deng commented: “We shall never take the lead, it’s a basic national policy”. He also made a 3-forever comment right after saying the 1-never: “China will forever stand at the side of third-world countries, China will forever not seeking hegemony, China will forever not take the lead”. (Different grammar between Chinese and English, the 3 forevers are totally fine in Chinese content.)When we talk about “韬光养晦” which is what you described in your question, it’s only 1 out of the 4 words he said as one of his most critical strategical thoughts.The full version is “善于守拙, 绝不当头, 韬光养晦, 有所作为”.善于守拙: be good at protecting weaknesses.绝不当头: never take the lead.韬光养晦: to hide the shine and stay in place where it doesn’t catch attention.有所作为: to achieve something.Combining these, you would then see his true idea about what path he expected China to go in the next decades.Deng was never the president of China nor the general secretary of CCP. As the last elite of the 1st generation leaders, he was elected as the General Secretary of the Central Military Commission from 1982 to 1989.When he realized the President and GS of CCP were not capable after Tiananmen Incident, the Central Committee of CCP soon decided to promote Jiang Zemin to take over the responsibility of applying Deng’s guidance and to lead China.Jiang is probably the 2nd most hated Chinese leader after Mao Zedong, due to being strict when dealing with Falungong, the largest cult in PR China history.The main task for Jiang was to lead China through the tough international environment and try his best to develop China, which are mainly No. 1 and 3 of Deng’s guidance.He accomplished his task assigned by the party almost perfectly. During his term between 1989 and 2002, he had to face the 3 biggest insults since PR China was founded:1, The Yinhe Incident.<Yinhe> is the Chinese name for “galaxy”: it was a deep sea vessel. 7 July 1993, the <Yinhe> departed from Tianjin, going to the Middle East. It was estimated to arrive Dubai in 3 August, and then to keep going onward to Saudi and Kuwait.23 July, USA claimed they held solid evidence of Yinhe carrying ingredients for chemical weapons to Iran (yes, USA has been messing with Iran for decades). It then sent two military vessels and five helicopters to monitor the <Yinhe>.Before the <Yinhe> could arrive in the Persian Gulf, the USA stopped the <Yinhe> in international waters and demanded to board it for inspection, otherwise <Yinhe> must turn back. The <Yinhe> was detained by US military for three weeks till the crew ran out of food and water. Meanwhile, American politicians demanded that the Chinese government stop this export immediately, otherwise they’d sanction China.Besides demanding Chinese government, the US government also demanded every nation which <Yinhe> was scheduled to stop by to not allow <Yinhe> to berth.Since the Chinese government didn’t back down and allow the US military to inspect the vessel, the USA eventually agreed for the <Yinhe> to be inspected by a third-party, and allowed <Yinhe> to arrive at Saudi Arabia.28 August, US military personnel, led by Saudi authorities, began to inspect the <Yinhe>. At the beginning, they only checked several containers which they claimed containing chemical weapon ingredients, but found nothing. They then expanded the inspection range to dozens of containers, and still found nothing. Eventually they decided to open all 628 containers on the <Yinhe>, but still couldn't find what they claimed.After the inspection, the USA, Saudi Arabia, and China signed the inspection report that confirmed that there were no chemical weapon ingredients on the <Yinhe> . But later, the USA claimed that the <Yinhe> unloaded the target containers somewhere halfway or dumped them into the ocean. But this accusation wasn’t backed up by the military surveillance on the <Yinhe> .The vessel wasn’t able to go anywhere for 33 days, and it caused a huge loss to the ship line. China claimed the loss and asked for compensation, but never got a response.2, The embassy bombing.United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - WikipediaThere is a Wikipedia page describing this, and it’s in English, so I’ll only briefly introduce the story we Chinese see:8 May 1999 Beijing Time, the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was bombed by a B2 with 3 JDAM, but luckily enough only two of them exploded. The one that penetrated the basement didn’t go off. Three journalists died due to the two explosions.China thought that it was an intentional move towards the Chinese embassy.NATO explained that it was a mistake due to an outdated map.The <Observer> thought that the bombing was deliberate because they thought that the Chinese embassy was a communication relay of Yugoslavia.In 2005, a NATO high-ranking officer said that NATO was convinced that the president of Yugoslavia was in the Chinese embassy, so it was a decapitation strike.This bombing caused massive protests in China against the USA.There was no clear explanation after all. I mean, who would believe the lame “outdated map” excuse?3, The South China Sea crash.1 April 2001, a US military EP-3 was scouting in the South China Sea region. PLAAF sent two J8II to monitor the activity.70 nautical miles southeast of Hainan province, within China’s exclusive economy zone, the EP-3 crashed with one of the J8II. The pilot Wang Wei was able to eject himself, but wasn’t found.The damaged EP-3 landed in Lingshui airport without authorization. But the American version is that EP-3 was crashed into by a lost control J8II and was led to the airport by the other J8II.2 April, President Bush had an emergency meeting to discuss this crash. Bush said that he was uncomfortable about China’s reaction, demanded to meet the EP-3 crew without interference, and demanded China return the plane.3 April, Jiang Zemin announced that the USA was fully responsible for this incident. Chinese military planes monitoring US planes on the Chinese coast was legitimate and fit international practice. The incident was due to a sudden turning and approaching of EP-3 that violated flight rules. US diplomats met the crew in Haikou and announced all 24 people were fine.4 April, Colin Luther Powell refused to apologize and expressed his sorrow for the missing pilot. The White House said that the turning point of this incident depended on China. The Chinese foreign minister called the US ambassador and asked the US not to misjudge.….9 April, Powell first says “sorry”.…12 April, 24 crew members flew back to USA.13 April, Bush said that US military will restore the scouting activity.20 April, the US negotiation representative passed a paper requesting China to return the EP-3.25 April, Bush said again that the US military will keep on scouting.7 June, an agreement was made regarding the transportation of EP-3.3 July, the EP-3 was loaded into a Russian plane and flew back.10 August, the US decided to pay 34 thousand USD as the service fee for 24 crew members.11 August, China refused to accept it.With three humiliation incidents within Jiang’s term, he maintained maximum self-control every time: to keep calm and maintain the economic development as Deng instructed.During the 90’s, China kept a very impressive growth rate.Then it was Hu Jintao who was elected as the new national leader and the core of the 4th generation CCP team. During his 10 years of duty, 2008 was the toughest:3 January, extremely cold air swept across 20 provinces in China. By 24 February, 129 were dead, 4 missing. 1.66 million people were relocated. Direct economic losses were more than 20 billion USD and directly raised the crop prices for the whole year.14 March, Tibet riot. 18 people were stabbed or burned to death, 382 injured. 300 arsons destroyed and damaged 908 stores, 7 schools, 120 civilian houses, and 5 hospitals. 84 vehicles burned.7 April, the torch of the Beijing Olympic Games was in France, and was being assaulted by Tibetan separatists.12 May, the Wenchuan earthquake. More than 100 thousand people died, and the center of the earthquake was 120km from my hometown. The damage was beyond imagination.August, the global economic crisis. Due to the tough international environment, starting from the third quarter, the growth rate of Chinese economy began to decline at an accelerated rate. October, the import and export growth started to slow down. November and December, many factories in Yangtze delta and Zhujiang delta closed down, and many workers had to return home earlier.2008 was estimated to be a turning point for China. Many tried their best to interrupt the Beijing Olympic Games before many foreigners could be able to watch the real China:By launching the 4 trillion plan, China managed to keep growing in 2008 and 2009 despite the crisis. In 2010, China’s GDP for the first time in modern history surpassed Japan.Just five years ago in 2005, a person with an online ID called <shinny saber> posted in a forum saying he predicted China’s GDP would surpass Japan in 2030. He got laughed at and insulted so hard. Barely anyone believed his words. Those who laughed at him determined that China’s GPD could never surpass Japan. Shinny Saber died in 2013, but he saw the day when China would prove them wrong.In just eight years, China managed to increase another 1.5x over Japan.The end of Hu Jintao’s terms was also the end of “韬光养晦”. China kept growing by relying on its enormous internal market. But to keep developing, China must seek external solutions. It must begin to “有所作为”.For all the years dealing with the west, Chinese understood something: one cannot reason with the West if one has no power to fight. The West fears and respects the strong ones, and bullies the weak ones if it’s beneficial.China used to speak with subtle words to hint to others about its intentions, but that turned out to be weak from Western perspective. Now China speaks much more directly and is now considered aggressive. Though as the spokesperson in Ministry of Defense once said: “they’ll get used to it if they hear it enough times”. Hence the different attitude of Xi Jinping.There is not much of the Chinese President’s personal will involved when talking about the overall attitude of China. The CCP has an internal democratic system that is able to come up with the best solution for everything, or at least tries to.Whatever Xi does must be the will of the core CCP team, including removal of the term limits of the Chinese president. Because real power resides within the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CCP and Central Military Commission, there have been no term limits for these two positions since the beginning.[Edit in 9 July, thanks to Thomas Edward]:Soon after Xi was elected as the national leader, during a visit of the CCP history exhibition, he brought up the idea of the Chinese Dream. The content of it is “实现中华民族伟大复兴 / to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.There are two iconic plans that can represent his, or to be more accurate the CCP’s, thought about China’s future:The belt and road initiativeIt’s not globalization, but similar in some ways, only purely economical. The BRI is a smaller globalization that focuses on Eurasia and Africa, to connect the nations along the ancient silk roads both on land and the sea.China’s idea of “expanding its influence” and “gaining interest” is to spread its developing experience and to provide support in certain areas, such as infrastructure, manufacturing, etc. In order to promote and support BRI, China also established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.China’s idea of earning money is not a zero-sum game. If anything, it’s the opposite. China wants those under developed nation to be richer, so that they can afford better Chinese products.The richer a target market is, the better business China has, and in China we have a saying “要想富先修路 / build roads in advance if you want to be rich”. Some call this the neo-colonization, I call it win-win situation.Made in China 2025Compared to Made-in-China-2025, BRI is just an appetizer. This one really triggered some panic in the US.In March 2015, the Chinese premier Li Keqiang fully described the plan of “Made in China 2025” for the first time in the annual government work report.The frame of this plan is called “一二三四五五十” or “one two three four five five ten”. (It’s much more catchy in Chinese)One target: Transforming China from a large manufacturing power into an advanced manufacturing power.Two “-nization”s: To stimulate the development of manufacture industry by deeply fuse informationization and industrializationThree steps: Step one, China becoming an advanced manufacturing power in 2025. Step two, Chinese manufacturing industry in general being in the middle level among all advanced manufacturing powers in 2035. Step three, China being in the leading group of manufacturing powers when PRC is 100 years old, which is the year of 2049.Four principles:Market leads, government guides.Based on the present but look into the future.A comprehensive developing plan with focusing points as priorities.Develop on our own, and cooperate with others to achieve win-wins.Five policies and five major projects:5 policies: creation driven, quality as priority, green growth, structural optimization, and people oriented.5 projects: manufacturing creation center, industrial fundament, intelligent manufacturing, green manufacturing, and high-end equipment.Ten target sectors:China now has a bigger aim, big enough to challenge the white supremacy that lasted for several hundred years and to change the international political and economical structure. It’s not the problem of whether China is willing to challenge the global domination of USA:Imagine there were only one restaurant in your community, and it tastes OK but the service is sometimes irritating. Some day, another one opens which tastes equally OK, if not a bit better. The new restaurant did not need to trash the old restaurant just to promote itself. People would naturally congregate at the new one for many reasons, such as being closer or fitting the preferences of some people better. USA is the old restaurant, and it’s worrying. [Edit ends]China is still trying to keep a low profile in many cases. If you recall the recent international political and military conflicts, China wasn't in most of them, or at least was not the one holding the flag.But it’s a huge elephant already, and it cannot be hidden behind a tree anymore. Anything China does will be noticed.When the trade war came, China tried to solve it by promising to buy 300 billion USD worth of American products in the next few years to shorten the trade gap. But just as the USA did in the Tiananmen Incident, it got greedy again, wanting to eliminate China’s future once-and-for-all by asking China to abandon Made-in-China 2025 and instead adopt total privatization.One should be aware that China doesn’t become this big, in terms of both the land and economy, by being nice and harmless.In conclusion:China’s guiding thought hasn't been changed since the late 1980’s. The misunderstanding that China has changed its course is due to lack of understanding about what Deng really said.

Note: This is a project of cost ₹ 80,00,00,000, lifting 56,63,36,93,184 litres of water a day. Thus, the long post.The Godavari river flows from Maharashtra into the northern part of Telangana. Per the award of Godavari River Disputes Tribunal, Telangana has an allocation of 900+ TMC of water in the Godavari River. Of which, the state today, barely uses 300 TMC. Reasons being that inflows into existing major and medium irrigation projects in the state from Maharashtra are very poor. This is due to construction of numerous dams, barrages and lift irrigation projects in the Maharashtra part of Godavari River. So, until and unless there are torrents of rainfall and all such irrigation projects in Maharashtra are filled to their brim, there will be no significant inflows into Telangana irrigation projects. Also, do note that Godavari river flows at lower elevation (+100m Above sea level) whereas Telangana regions are at a higher elevation (+300m to +590m above sea level). Gravity based projects are not a feasible option and lift based projects remain state’s only resort in meeting its irrigation needs.Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Project starts at the confluence point of Pranhita River and Godavari River i.e, at Kaleshwaram village in Telangana. Pranahita river in itself is a confluence of various other smaller tributaries like Wardha, Penganga and Wainganga Rivers. It is estimated that Pranahita river has an annual average flow of 280 TMC. It remains untapped as its course is principally through the dense forests and other ecologically sensitive zones such as wild life sanctuaries.The project was originally named as Pranahita Chevella Lift Irrigation Project but the project design couldn’t materialise due to variety of issues. The original plan aimed to build a barrage across Pranhita river at Tummidihetti Village and this would serve as the starting point for the project. The height of the proposed barrage in the original plan would also submerge large fertile areas in Maharashtra. It raised objection to the same. The original plan also did not plan for adequate water storage reservoirs and largely relied upon series of lifts throughout. In 2016, Telangana and Maharashtra governments entered into an MoU to resolve this, as part of which a new barrage would now be built at Medigadda and a lift at Kannepalli Village would lift water required for the project. The whole project was redesigned with adequate barrages and reservoirs aided by pumps and lifts at appropriate places under the new name - “Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Project”.Kaleshwaram Project is divided into ‘7’ links and ‘28’ packages covering about 500 Kms of 13 districts and a canal network of about 1800 Kms. Project aims to utilise a total of 240 TMC (195 TMC from Medigadda barrage + 20 from Sripada Yellampalli Project + 25 TMC from groundwater). Of this 240 TMC, water has been divided as 169 TMC is for irrigation, 30 TMC for Hyderabad, 10 TMC for drinking water in villages along the project, 16 TMC for industries and 12 TMC is estimated evaporation losses. Project aims to create a new ayacut of 18.25 lakh acres in 13 districts and stabilisation of existing ayacut of 18.82 lakh acres.Existing Online balancing reservoirs1. Sripada Yellampalli Project - 20.175 TMC2. Mid-Manair Dam - 25.875 TMC3. Upper-Manair Reservoir - 2.20 TMC4. Kadam Project - 7.60 TMC5. Masani Tank - 0.13 TMC- TOTAL - 55.98 TMCProposed Online storage reserviours1. Barrage at Medigadda with FRL 100.0 m - 16.17 TMC2. Barrage at Annaram with FRL 120.0 m - 11.9 TMC3. Barrage at Sundilla with FRL 130.0 m - 5.11 TMC4. Medaram Online storage - 0.78 TMC5. Ananthagiri Online storage - 3.50 TMC6. Sri Ranganayaka Sagar (Imamabad Online storage) - 3.00 TMC7. Sri Komaravelly Mallana Sagar (Tadkapally) - 50.00 TMC8. Malkapet Online storage - 3.00 TMC9. Konda Pochamma Online storage (Pamulaparthy) - 7.00 TMC10. Amarlabanda Online storage - 5.00 TMC11. Katchapur - 2.50 TMC12. Thimmakka Palli - 3.00 TMC13. Issaipet - 2.50 TMC14. Bhumpally Online storage - 0.09 TMC15. Gujjal Online storage - 1.50 TMC16. Katewadi Online storage - 5.00 TMC17. Mothe Online storage - 2.90 TMC18. Kondem Cheruvu - 3.50 TMC19. Gandhamalla Online storage - 9.87 TMC20. Baswapuram Online storage - 11.39 TMC— TOTAL - 147.71 TMCLinks & Irrigated Command Area/Ayacut (Acres)Link-I : From Medigadda Barrage on Godavari River to Sripada Yellampally Project (30000 Acres)Link-II : From Sripada Yellampally Project to Mid Manair DamLink-III : From Mid Manair Dam to Upper Manair Reservoir (86150 Acres)Link-IV : From Mid Manair Dam to Konda Pochamma Reservoir (595754 Acres)Link-V : From Anicut to Chityala (243500 Acres)Link-VI : From Sri Komaravelly Mallana Sagar to Singur Dam (280296 Acres)Link-VII : From SRSP Foreshore to Nizam Sagar Canals and to Dilwapur and Hangarga village for Nirmal and Mudhole Constituency (590000 Acres)TOTAL - 18,25,700 Acres (New ayacut)Apart from - 18,75,000+ Acres (Stabilisation of existing ayacut)Gravity Canals & Tunnels for distribution1. Gravity Canal - 1531 Kms2. Gravity Tunnel - 203 Kms3. Pressure Mains/ Delivery Mains - 98 KmsLINKSLink-I : From Medigadda Barrage on Godavari River to Sripada Yellampally ProjectWater is to be reverse pumped from the confluence point of Godavari and Pranhita Rivers to Sripada Yellampally Project with the help of 3 barrages (Medigadda, Annaram and Sundilla) and 3 lifts.At present, lifts are being commissioned with provision to lift 2 TMC (56,63,36,93,184 litres) of water per day from Medigadda. The water is lifted to backwaters of Annaram barrage. Again from Annaram barrage to Sundilla barrage. Finally from Sundilla to Sripada Yellampally Project. Civil works are being executed to lift 3 TMC per day but pumps are being installed to lift only 2 TMC. If need be, only pumps would need to be installed to increase capacity by one more TMC.Link-II : From Sripada Yellampally Project to Mid Manair DamFrom Sirpada Yellampally Project, with the help of a gravity canal + twin tunnels of 9.5 Kms and a lift, water is lifted to Medaram Tank. From Medaram Tank, with the help of a tunnel and lift, water is lifted to Sriram Sagar Project’s (SRSP/Pochampad Project) Kakatiya Canal. Apart from this, with the help of twin tunnels and a lift, water from Medaram Tank is lifted to SRSP’s Flood Flow Canal. Which in turn flows to Mid Manair Reservoir. Here apart from stabilising existing ayacut of SRSP via canals, canals are used as a reservoir to store water.Link-III : From Mid Manair Dam to Upper Manair ReservoirFrom Mid Manair Reservoir, with the help of a tunnel of 12 Kms and a lift, water is lifted to Malkapet Reservoir. Later, from Malkapet Reservoir with the help of a gravity canal, water is lited to Upper Manair Reservoir. Thereafter, from Upper Manair, water is lifted with the help of tunnels, gravity canals and lifts to Issaipet, Bhumpally, Gujjal, Katewadi, Amarlabanda, Mothe, Thimmakka Palli and Katchapur reservoirs.Link-IV : From Mid Manair Dam to Konda Pochamma ReservoirIn a similar way to previous links, from Mid Manair Reservoir water is lifted with the help of a tunnel of 7 Kms and a lift to Anantagiri Reservoir. Again, from Anantagiri Reservoir, with the help of a tunnel of 8 Kms and a lift, water is lifted to Imamabad Reservoir. There after, again with the help of a tunnel of 16 Kms and a lift, water is lifted to Sri Komaravelly Mallana Sagar. Sri Komaravelly Mallana Sagar is the largest reservoir proposed and has a capacity of 50 TMC. From Sri Komaravelly Mallana Sagar, with the help of a gravity canal, water is transferred to Anicut. Finally, from there, with the help of a tunnel of 8 Kms and a lift, water is lifted to Konda Pochamma Reservoir. Konda Pochamma Reservoir is the highest elevation in the project (+590m Above sea level). Later, water is transferred to Shamirpet Tank.A new balancing reservoir is also being proposed in the outskirts of Hyderabad of 20–30 TMC to store water. The water will be supplied to this balancing reservoir in the same link.Link-V : From Anicut to ChityalaFrom Anicut, a series of gravity canals and a small tunnel of 1.2 Kms are planned to transfer water to Gandhamalla Reservoir and Baswapuram Reservoir. Thereafter, gravity canals are planned towards Chityal Mandal and its villages.Link-VI : From Sri Komaravelly Mallana Sagar to Singur DamFrom Sri Komaravelly Mallana Sagar, another sequence of gravity canals, tunnels and lifts are used to transfer water to Singur Dam. Apart from that, if need be, water can be transferred to Nizam Sagar Project and from there, to SRSP.Link-VII : From SRSP Foreshore to Nizam Sagar Canals and to Dilwapur and Hangarga village for Nirmal and Mudhole ConstituencyFrom foreshore waters of SRSP, water will be transferred to reservoirs at Hangarga and Dilwapur villages. Apart from this, existing reservoirs like Masani Tank and kondem Cheruvu will also be linked. Canals under Nizam Sagar will also be irrigated.Combine the links and here you have one of a kind infrastructure project.Future:Like Pranhita river, Indravathi river is one of the tributaries of Godavari and remains untapped. As part of redesigning Devadula Lift Irrigation Project, another barrage is being built at the downstream after the confluence of Indravathi and Godavari rivers. A lift can be put in the backwaters of the barrage and reverse pumped to the Medigadda barrage, if needed in future.UPDATE:Some of the people have put up interesting questions in comments and here are answers to it.Power Requirements, its availability and feasibility:This project requires about 20 number of major lifts spread across various districts. The power requirement at each station varies from 0.45 MW to 973 MW. The total power required for the project is about 4627 MW. The pump houses require power supply at various voltages ranging from 33 KV to 400 KV. Same will be provided by DISCOMS in Telangana - Telangana State Northern Power Distribution Company Limited (TSNPDCL) & Telangana State Southern Power Distribution Company of Telangana Limited (TSSPDCL).Telangana Power Generation Corporation’s (TSGENCO) Kothagudem Thermal Power Station (KTPS) has recently completed its expansion by 800MW and will be completed by June/July 2018. The same will be synchronised with the grid. Bhadradri and Yadadri Thermal Power Plants are expected to add another 5080 MW to the grid in coming years. Hydel based power plants are also being planned at Medigadda, Tammidihatti and Tupakulagudem. Another 5000 MW of solar power will also be added in coming years. Power is not an issue and will be available as needed.It must be recognised that water flow in the river bed will be mostly active for 3 months. The pumps will be operating in these 3 months. Remaining months they will lie idle.Cost of lifting water:It is estimated that power bills would be in the tune of 7000 to 8000 crores. It will be incurred by the Government. Finances of DISCOMS have been hit hard recently by the 24/7 free agricultural power supply, around 1000 crore is the estimated impact on state budget. This adds to existing 3000 crore burden from electricity subsidies. State would need to make budgetary cuts some where to accommodate this.Remember, the pumps will be operating for 3 months only. The argument against the project can be about Govt. priorities of water vs. every thing else in budget. Gravity flow is not an option. If we want water, we have to lift it. There is no other way around. One could argue - had Tummidihetti Barrage been the starting point, power requirement could have been a little less. But it would never have been built due to objections from Maharashtra.169 TMC for creating 18.25 Lakh acres new ayacut:Remember, these are Govt. figures. Figures of Irrigation Potential (IP) created and utilised are never same. IP Created figures are quite inflated and exaggerated. They are quoted without taking into account various other factors such as canal lining, canal water seepages, evaporation, constructed canal network etc.It is estimated that each TMC of water can irrigate about 6000 to 7000 Acres. With simple maths : 169 TMC * 7000 Acres = 11,83,000 Acres.I’ll now tell you Govt. side of the story. A decade ago, World Bank partly funded Nagarjuna Sagar Project Modernisation[1]. Aim was to repair and modernise canals to ensure waters reach to end point of the ayacut created. In 2013-14 and 2014-15, they were able to irrigate only 6000 and 5,400 Acres only. After completion of some works in 2017–18 rabi, 5.20 lakh acres were irrigated with 44.78 TMC, with each TMC providing irrigation to 11,613 acres. IP Utilised for each TMC of water was close to 10,639 acres. So, if Govt. pulls this off here,Again with simple maths : 169 TMC * 10639 Acres = 17,97,991 Acres.Close enough? Right?Another argument from Govt. is that they will encourage drip irrigation like micro irrigation systems which will increase ayacut per TMC. Also, eventually with reservoirs around, ground water levels will increase. Irrigation from ground water is not something one could easily calculate. There will always be claims and counterclaims.Might sound speculative, but even if we irrigate newer ayacut close to 15 Lakh Acres, its still a win-win because there are other impacts of this project. From Sripada Yellampally Project to Medigadda Barrage, close to 100Kms of river’s backwaters will be live for all 365 days. Backwaters will also be present from Kaleshwaram to some portion of Pranhita’s downward stream (around 30–40 Kms). You have also got new reservoirs with water. Govt. plans to promote these areas for pisciculture. There is a lot of unexplored potential in fish farming. There’s tourism potential as well. I mean a weekend getaway along backwaters is something of a dream in the state really. Proper transportation from Hyderabad + tourism resorts along river backwaters and reservoirs will be selling rooms on the go. These areas might become famous ecotourism hotspots if marketed well. This will lead to some form of increase in state revenues via agriculture, pisciculture, tourism etc. Last but not the least, promotes lots and lots of greenery.Govt. Claim on irrigating 1 Crore 23 lakh Acres:Govt. has NEVER claimed that Kaleshwaram Project will single handedly create an ayacut of 1 Cr. 23 Lakh Acres. Kaleshwaram Project along with Palamuru-Ranga Reddy Lift irrigation + Sitarama Lift Irrigation Project + Srisailam Left Bank Canal Project + SRSP Stage 2 + SRSP Rejuvenation etc once completed will achieve that. Despite ~15% of state budgetary allocation, financial constraints might push this Govt.’s dream to post 2020. Raising loans from banks at ~5–10% interest rates is not good for finances of the state.TJAC Publication on Kaleshwaram Project:A little while ago, Telangana Joint Action Committee (TJAC) released a small publication on Kaleshwaram Project. Curiosity made me read it the same day that it was released. I personally, did not find any merit in things the report brought out. Some apprehensions mentioned in the book were about:• How Tummidihetti Barrage’s (@ 152/148m FRL) would’ve reduced power costs to lift water to Yellampalli Project (@148m FRL) as only one lift would’ve required. The thing is, Maharashtra disapproves of it and it has more to do with regional politics than rationality. In a favourable situation, where State Government’s of AP, Maharashtra and Union Government, were run by the same party, they couldn’t agree on it. How can we expect consent otherwise. So, this would’ve never materialised and even if it did, would’ve taken decades.Per inter-state agreement, we can still build barrage at Tummidihetti but it is going to be built at a low FRL and will supply water only to the parts of erstwhile Adilabad district. The project is called “Dr. B. R. Ambedkar Pranahita Sujala Sravanthi Project”. May be, some day, we can raise the barrage height in a phase wise manner with consent from Maharashtra.• Power costs (Already discussed above)• It contests CWC claim of more water. Going by the very basic logic, Pranahita is of course joined by various other streams as it flows down to Kaleshwaram. Thereby, more water? In an event where upper riparian states, despite eco sensitive zone, decide to exploit 63 TMC of their allotted share, Tummidihetti would’ve been useless. With the current plan, we can even use water from Indravati, in the future, to supplement to such shortages.• Talks about why large storage capacity of Mallana Sagar (50 TMC) is useless and how 5 TMC would’ve sufficed. Mallana Sagar of course supplements to shortages in Singur Dam (30 TMC), Manjira Project (1.5 TMC), Nizam Sagar Project (18 TMC) & Sri Ram Sagar Project (90 TMC) and as on December 2018, these projects have 2.6 TMC, 0.07 TMC, 0.96 TMC & 33.34 TMC respectively. This has been a bad year for these projects except SRSP which filled upto 70 TMC. If we were to supplement to these shortages, Mallana sagar would’ve been hardly left with any water. But there have been years where we have had good rain spells and have filled these projects to their FTL. Large storage capacity was a wise decision and it will help us deal with water shortages like that of this year. Mallana Sagar is being built at one of the higher elevations in Telangana, we could even supplement to Krishna Basin, if we expand pumping capacity to 3 TMC. It will also meet future drinking water needs of Hyderabad, especially the planned Keshavapuram Reservoir (20 TMC).• It also talks about lineament which runs parallel to Mallana Sagar. It says, volume of 50 TMC water per se could have an impact on this lineament and this more or less, could lead to seismic activity like earth quakes or create perennial flow along this lineament on which a river stream called “Kudleru/Kudavelli/Kudelli Vaagu” also runs. I am not a geology expert but then, a thorough LIDAR survey was conducted. If it does have such serious consequences, government would not have gone ahead with this project.Footnotes[1] Nagarjunasagar Project modernisation yielding results