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Why is China a forgotten ally of WWII?
Ok, I was going to move on, but after seeing some of these other answers - especially one that adopted such a condescending tone to the original poster of the question in the form of “Eyy congrats for falling for a logical fallacy” - I’m going to write that the original poster is most likely referring to the book “Forgotten Ally” by East Asian historian Rana Mitter.Rana Mitter is a professor of the history and politics of modern China at Oxford University and I happen to have been taught by one of the students who attended his lectures.And contrary to these other so-called answers which baselessly and outrageously claim that the low coverage of China’s war effort during WW2 was due to its insignificance, Rana Mitter painstakingly compiles evidence and provides an eye-opening and logical argument for why mainstream movies and documentaries today have seemingly suffered amnesia about China’s role in the years between the well-documented start of the Second-Sino Japanese War in 1937 and the Allied Victory in 1945 that saw the Republic of China being given a permanent security council seat in the newly formed United Nations.Hmm, I don’t suppose the reason China was given so much political power had anything to do with the crucial role she played in defeating Japan?Even a cursory search online can provide the numbers game that proves China was to Japan, what the Soviet Union was to the German Reich! Japanese militarists at the onset of war confidently predicted a capture of Shanghai in a week and capitulation of Chiang’s Government within a month. Instead the Blue Republic resisted in the Battle of Shanghai for 3 Months, fighting a brutal street battle that has been dubbed “The Stalingrad on the Yangtze”! Alas, that the sacrifice of Chinese soldiers for the lives of their American, British and Australian allies would be so easily dismissed today.This answer was not intended to come out as an attack against you, dear reader, and I apologise. The truth is thanks in large part to the victory of the CCP in the Chinese civil war, it became politically inconvenient to remind the US public that Chinese soldiers held the line against the Japanese when it became clear that the Chinese were now their Communist rivals and propaganda cannot work with such grey areas.Why take my word for it when Uncle Sam agrees with me?And so that is why China has been “forgotten” in the perception of WW2 by the Anglosphere. The terrible part about this is that as more time elapses and more people come to believe that American island hopping was more crucial than China’s resistance, the greater the likelihood that Chinese nationalism will flare up.As Rana Mitter noted in an interview with the New York Times, he felt that it was chilling to see events from 70 years ago that he studies as a historian return to life as newspaper headlines today such as when Japan continues to deny the Rape of Nanjing. According to Mitter, China and Japan do not share closure or even the same narrative of WW2 that France and Germany can and as a result a resurgence of war between China and Japan actually has a frighteningly realistic chance of occurring whereas this prospect is unthinkable in Europe.And unless outsiders looking in at China, people like you and me, do our research and honor the fallen Chinese of WW2, modern Chinese will always feel that we can never understand their heritage of pain and loss.Best of wishes, friend.EDIT: Thomas Finnegan points out rightfully so that US involvement in the Pacific War deserves more credit in my answer as China had no realistic naval or air power to invade the Japanese Home Islands and so the US navy would have been necessary for a “killing blow” , while also pointing out that had China resisted less, substantially more Japanese troops would be stationed in the Home Islands which might have bolstered the Japanese will to fight possibly even after the use of atomic weapons. Something worth thinking about…
Why does it appear that Kerala is now welcoming BJP? Will BJP perform well in Kerala?
I have answered on Twitter to a psephologist a week back that BJP/NDA is not going to gain a single seat in Kerala despite the massive upward swing in their popularity. But now I believe I will have to take it back as the scenario appears to have changed a lot. This answer may be a bit long as it needs detailed explanation.Reasons for BJP’s prospects going up:- Up till late 2018 BJP was still in the ventilator in Kerala despite Modis popularity across the country. Infact it is one state where Rahul is more popular than the PM. Almost 100% minority hates BJP and more than half of Hindus who are themselves affiliated to other parties like communist and congress also dont favor BJP. Out of the remaining Hindus most are neutral. In comparison BJP’s following in the state was low.But things saw a drastic change with the CM Pinarayi taking a gamble with SC verdict on Sabarimala. What was thought to have been a trivial issue tranformed into the biggest protest the state saw in last few decades. Instead of paying attention to the protestors the CM took it as a challenge on himself to defy all faith and let woman enter the shrine by hook or crook. And just when things were seen cooling off, he scrambled up two woman to sneak into the shrine in the cover of darkness. This threw things into a tissy. Hindus became enraged like never before. A hartal (Bandh) was called upon the next day that became the most successful one in recent times, even way successful than the ones called by the parties. K Surendran, the now BJP candidate from Pathanamthitta where Sabarimala is located, was spearheading the protests and had become the darling of the masses especially woman folks. He was arrested while trying to enter the shrine that shot up his popularity multifold.Despite all these things going in favor BJP was still suspicious to pull the impossible off till a week back even in the Trivandrum where the chances are most and at Pathanamthitta where Surendran is putting up a huge show. The reason being the old trick of the other two parties in crossing votes to each other to keep BJP in check that worked out well in recent assembly elections.But everything appeared to have changed with Rahul Gandhi choosing Wayanadu to be his second constituency.Despite the Sabarimala fiasco CPM did some good candidate selection and that too very early than any other parties and started to work on it almost a month back itself giving them early mover advantage. OTOH, congress took some gambles and surprised everyone with some of their selection. Many people in anti communist camp were suprised and thought left will gain more seats than expected and give a very tough fight in other seats. But Rahul Gandhi neutralised it inadvertently. And he had helped BJP immensely here in Kerala to grab atleast 2 seats from nowhere. Reasons being.The fence sitters who were confused between Congress or communists will largely go to congress now due to Rahul factor which will blow away any chances communists had.So places where it was a CPM Congress close fight will either become a Congress walkover like Vadakara or Kannur or could possibly become a Congress BJP fight knocking communists off completely.Alathur constituency in Palakkad district was considered as CPM’s most safest seat and the only place where Sabarimala might not harm them as much as in other places. My colleague who is from that place told me its CPM all the way and nobody can beat them there. But last day even he changed his view and said the Congress woman candidate is doing a great job now and many people are sliding towards her. To make matters worse a tall CPM leader has made some really nasty sexist remarks on her that has backfired on them and it shouldnt surprise one if CPM actually loses this fort.Besides all these, Kerala woke up yesterday (4th April) to the Amicus curie report that Kerala floods were caused not just by the incessant rainfall but by the dam mismanagement that will put communist in further soup as their candidates are still unable to answer voters on account of floodsMany CPM leaders are said to be admitting in secret that they shouldnt have gone after Sabarimala so hard. Also CPM is visibly angry at Rahul for choosing to fight against them instead of BJP by picking Wayanadu. Their party newspaper even called Rahul ‘Pappu’ in their edition.By being out of the contest with a chance of drawing blank and a realistic risk of vote shares going below BJP, communist may not risk to dwindle their vote share by cross voting to Congress to beat BJP. Worse, they may end up in 3rd position at many places than the most optimist CPM hater ever thought off. The two places BJP is rumoured to have winning chances is current congress seats where CPM is not even in the game. CPM was nowhere in Trivandrum in 2014 and scenario has not changed even now. If Yechury’s address to empty chairs is any indication Pathanamthitta is also better forgotten by comrades. So to keep BJP in check, its the communists who will have to leak votes and not the other way around. Besides in may constituencies like Thrissur, Palakkad, Ernakulam BJP is showing steady advance and pushing CPM out of the contest.In case CPM is unable to cross the votes BJP stands a chance to win TVM by 90% and Pathanamthitta by 45% as of now in the most conservative estimate which is shooting up everyday. Pathanamthitta candidate Surendran has emerged as the Sabarimala hero and is a hero of devotees especially women folks. He is receiving a heroic welcome across the constituency. There are instances of women folks are abandoning the congress leaders meetings upon sighting Surendran nearby. One telling factor of Surendran’s popularity and gain in the area is the anger and hatred expressed by hardcore Modi haters way far up in North Kerala that is hundreds of miles away from Pathanamthitta and who have absolutely nothing to do with the place.The Sabarimala issue has irked one of the major Hindu caste NSS, that was largely apolitical before. Anybody from the organisation supporting communists are getting sacked immediately and they have openly declared their support for BJP in places they stand a chance. In other places they have instructed people to vote for anyone except left parties. The other major caste, SNDP, which is the core base of communists is also standing behind BJP largely except for the hardcore comrades. Also their caste leaders son, Tushar Vellapilly, has formed a political party, BDJS, and is an NDA ally now. Tushar himself is contesting in Wayanadu against Rahul. So the support from devotees and majority of the people from these two castes along with others are also with BJPSo all in all Rahul Gandhi has suddenly raised the hope of BJP in Kerala all the while pretending to fight against them and quashed any little chances CPM had in the state. The contest, unlike all the ones before, is largely becoming a tripolar contest with BJP’s stakes going up rapidly. They could win anywhere from 1–2 or even a 3rd and is almost sure to pip communists in 3rd position in many places. With the large Hindu consolidation and prominent castes standing behind them for the first time, getting an opening in Kerala is not exactly a pipe dream any more.Edit 1: Thank you for the upvotes.Edit 2: Thank you Bijoy Jha for the appreciation. It indeed encourages me to write more on Quora.Edit 3: Two interesting developments happened in Kerala on 16th April that could further boost the prospect of BJP. 1. CM Pinarayi Vijayan, at a public speech in Kattakada in Trivandrum, was disturbed at the sound of Sharanam chants coming out from the loudspeakers of a temple nearby. He stopped his speech midway and spoke something to his party members and they were seen walking out of the stage. Little later the chants stopped. Later it emerged that the party men took out the fuse and cut the electricity to the temple to stop the chants. The video is spreading viral on WA showing the clip and to make matters worse for CPM, another video also emerged that shows same CM bowing his head down in respect while he hear namaz from the mosque nearby.2. There was many rallies by Rahul Gandhi in Kerala and he was seen praising CPM and not a word was spoken against them. Remember the same CPM killed two of Rahuls party members barely 2 month back. This has put the congress in defensive and they were seen fumbling on the TV debates. It is now heard that many party members are visibly upset over the development.I believe the former incident must have caused upset to many more Hindus while the latter may have made them strike off Congress as the alternative to CPM. This could also benefit BJP. Also the further abuse on faith could also push more Hindus who may have chosen to not vote or press NOTA towards BJP.Edit 4: Woww. My first 1k upvotes. Thank you everyone for the encouragement.Edit 5: The campaign ended today (21st April) and there is a huge change in the scenario in Kerala since I answered this question. Let me point it out here.Trivandrum seems to be almost in BJP bag as all poll predictions showing BJP lead over Tharoor. To make matters worse several news coming out that Tharoor doesnt have support from congress leaders to campaignPathanamthitta chances have gone up and I will peg it around 65–70% now conventionally. BJP does believe that this will be BJP’s second seat, but the minority votes will play a huge role. One thing for sure, K Surendran ran a blockbuster campaign that send chills across the opponents and congress will really sweat to retain it. Expected it to be a photo finish.Thrissur:- The seat that could be a sleeper hit. This was a seat that was sure to give a fight, but nothing above second was expected from here. BDJS candidate, Tushar was supposed to contest from here, but with Rahul coming to Wayanad, Tushar moved out to take him and BJP leadership decided to rope in the popular actor, Suresh Gopi from Thrissur. He was the superstar of 90’s and 3rd most popular actor after Mammootty and Mohanlal. The entire BJP and NDA cadre got energised after this and campaign got aggressive and the contest was turned between Congress and BJP. SG did a massive base work running from booth to booth and built up a huge vibe for BJP especially among woman folks in Thrissur. The contest was long been expected to be a photo finish. And another incident happened on 20th April that further surged SG’s prospect. Another popular actor from Thrissur came out in support of SG and he was massively trolled on FB by communists and SDPI members that gained a lot of sympathy for the actor there by boosting SG. This actor in question is quite popular and is liked well by women folks as well as youths as he is spectacular in both comic roles as well as action roles. All these developments have raised the prospects of SG and it is heard left is down in the seat where as congress is flabbergasted seeing the support Mr SG is getting. If a complete consolidation of Hindu votes happens and this could well be BJP’s 3rd seat from Kerala. Also chances of Hindu votes consolidation is high as Thrissur, called as cultural capital, is the home of the famous Vadakkunnatha Temple where the famous Thrissur Pooram happens and Hindus can very well relate to Sabarimala issue. Thrissur district is also the land of Guruvayoor Temple, which is another top most popular temple in Kerala. Hindus really fear the govt can meddle with many of the cultures, the Thrissur people holds dear if they dont respond to the over aggression. The chances are like 60–65% in the seat now for BJP.Palakakd:- BJP is putting up a huge fight, but contrary to my initial expectation, it is LDF having a slender lead with Congress almost dusted there. While congress is facing factionalism, BJP and LDF putting a great show and rumours are that the minority community is solid behind the latter that gives him an edge. Unless huge split doesnt happen, BJP will in all probability end 2nd.Also as the campaign ended, it seems LDF may not draw a blank and in some seats votes may get crossed. Many rumours still hearing that LDF giving priority to not letting lotus bloom than their National Party image or anything and may cross votes where ever they have zero chances along with BJP winning. Also they still maintain a lead in Attingal, but BJP did a great damage to their traditional vote bank and has got a great response as per reports. Also some reports say Congress screwed up candidate selection and gave an opportunity in Alleppey, which is another place BJP expected to spike their share. They have srewed up in their fort Alathur big time by beating the Congress candidate Ramya HAridas along with MLA Anil Akkare at the end of campaign. Ramya was already cutting into their votes and this may swing things in her favour big time.In all probability the prospects of parties stand as follows. NDA 1–3, LDF 2–4, UDF 13–17Edit 6: Massive polling seen in Kerala at 77.67% against 73 odd% in 2014. All PC’s crossed 70% in polling and 18/20 had more women voters than men. Thrissur, Pathanamthitta and Trivandrum polled 5, 8 and 5% more than last time and women turnout is much higher. Infact BJP is upbeat about a win in these 3 seats and has put up a considerable fight in Palakkad, and LDF stronghold Attingal. LDF and UDF and even BJP is stunned at the higher % and is completely confused as to what way the polls went. Chances of BJP winning 3 seats are now 60–65% and winning 2 seats are at 80–85% in the worst case scenario. Even if in the unlikely event of not winning any seats, still BJP will pile up a huge voteshare and might possibly pip CPM behind.
Could it be true that the Greeks really are affecting the Turkish oil exploration drill ship as in this article? Could they get that close? It sounds like propaganda for local consumption… (though written in English).
Thank you Yiannis Papadopoulos for the A2AAs usual there are several aspects to this issue.a) BathymetryAs anyone can see, the area to the East of 28th longitude (a line that runs from northern part of Rhodos straight south) which would normally be the western boundary of the Turkish EEZ, is really deep.No one has ever drilled deeper than 2600 m and no one knows how to do it as it is both monstrously complicated & expensive.So the whole thing is practically for show.Next to Oruc there are 5 Turkish war ships ( 1 frigate and 4 missile boats) plus 2 offshore tugs close by, so that amounts to 12 propellers and close to 1/4 million horse power churning vibration in the water. But does it really matter?Its a just a show for Erdogan’s public/b) Legal implicationsICJ jurisprudence considers that the area south Megisti (Kastellorizo) hasn’t any right to an EEZ apart from 12 NM territorial waters.However, since our dear eastern neighbours, instead of a peaceful arbitration, prefer bazaar grade haggling -with guns of the table- demanding to control of half the Aegean, its normal that the Greek side also makes unreasonable demands.Does this makes any sense?-No.Is there any probability that Turkish governments will back down from their demands about the Aegean?-Not that I know of.Even if Greece offers them the sea area East of the 28th Meridian for free on a silver platter. Which by the way Greece implied by signing its UNCLOS compliant boundary agreement with Egypt. Turkish reaction to this gesture was actually rabid, showing its hand that its not interested in negotiating anything.c) the UNCLOS compliant Greek Egyptian agreementThe white line represents the prospective Turkish maritime boundaries with Egypt according to UNCLOS and an indirect invitation to the Turkish side to enter the talks, by implicitly abandoning Greek claims to an EEZ for the island of Megisti (Kastelorizo).Georges Gritsis's answer to Why does Turkey object to the Greek-Egypt maritime deal? Was it according to the UN laws of seas?d) ImplicationsGreece has signed UNCLOS and not Turkey.As long as the area remains disputed / unsettled according to International Law, Greece can sue for damages any foreign corporation attempting to assist Turkish companies in exploiting that area. There are only a handful corporations with the know how of drilling the deep: they are either American or European. Not even Russians or Chinese own that tech.Even for its legal drillings in the Turkish Black Sea EEZ, TPAO has to partner 50–50 with ExxonMobil. Believe it or not, Turkey applies UNCLOS everywhere, except with its boundaries with Greece.The Republic of Cyprus sued minor international contractors assisting Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) at conducting surveys within Cyprus’ EEZ and served international arrest warrants against all the foreign nationals involved: the result was these contractors desisted and immediately moved out. TPAO had to interrupt its operations.d) the End GameI’m afraid its a dead end because of too high expectations fed by ultra nationalists, dead end which cant be unlocked unless Erdogan acquires the support of a major player.Erdogan is hostage (like many politicians before him) to the ultra nationalists so there’s nothing he can really negotiate.The current Oruc ”cruise show” is just a political statement that Greece’s argument regarding the area south of Megisti is invalid.Erdogan’s purpose is only negotiating the control of half the Aegean, his fascist allies all time goal:“Greeks locking turkey out of the Mediterranean” has been a concept hammered in to public opinion by Turkish ultranationalists since they were pardoned in 1946 after the 1944 “Turanist” trials.Ataturk’s useful idiots, this specific group of people whose political roots stemmed from prejudiced fascists and old members and cadres of the murderous Teşkilât-ı Mahsusa, never stopped fuelling hatred.“Half the Aegean belongs to us. This is what the world must know. If the honour and interests of the Turkish nation are attacked we shall crush the head of the enemy.”Turkish Prime Minister Sadi Irmak, 1947.“Cyprus is the first step towards the Aegean.”Turkish Foreign Minister Melih Esenbel, 22 January 1975“All the Aegean islands off the Turkish mainland, including the Dodecanese islands, must belong to Turkey.”Alparslan Turkes, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister, March 1976.“The islands of Limnos and Lesvos… are lands necessary to us not only as part of the heritage of the Ottoman state but for our security as well. We want these islands…”Burhan Felek, president of Journalists’ Union of Istanbul, Milliyet newspaper, 3 February 1982In conclusion:Is it sustainable?Why Turkey Needs a New Crisis with Greece in MediterraneanTurkish Aggression Is NATO’s ‘Elephant in the Room’