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Short and honest answer - it depends on what career path you're looking for and what you're looking to get from your experience at school.Big Corporations love UCLAWe have a reputation for being academically rigorous. This means that your diploma will be worth more than its weight in gold.Large number of students here means more companies find it worthwhile to come and recruit.Industry donors like Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Blizzard, IBM, Symantec, etc. have input and understanding of our curriculum. This means that you'll have a higher chance of getting that job from these big corporations because they know what is being taught here.Our engineering & technical career fair spans 2 days and happens once during Fall and again during Winter quarter, attracting hundreds of employers. Every one of them recruit computer science students or students who know how to code. See list of companies at the Winter '15 fairUCLA is a focus school on many company's recruiting list. Google, Facebook, Microsoft, LinkedIn, Apple, Amazon, Bloomberg, eBay, Adobe, Intel, Boeing, etc. are on campus multiple times a year setting up tech talks, recruiting events, etc.UCLA is not for the entrepreneurial minded.Classes are very theoretical. As much as I hate to admit this, the curriculum is about as theoretical as computer science can get. Students are taught to become graduate students and researchers. There aren't any up to date courses on web, mobile, UI/UX, games, big data, etc. - classes that, in my opinion, give potential entrepreneurs and early employees at startups a big head start. Most class projects are done in C/C++. Popular languages at startups like Ruby, Python, PHP, Javascript, Swift, etc. are not covered in depth, if at all.The course load is very heavy. You will be expected to take 4 classes a quarter most of the time you're here. That means you can only choose one of the following: sleep, social life, or good grades, maybe two if you are insanely smart. It's hugely important to socialize, go to hackathons, learn other programming languages, work on side projects, and engage in the tech community if you're interested in advancing a career past entry level code monkey.Lack of entrepreneurial spirit and presence is pretty obvious. The few scattered groups on campus that are startup related have little to show for. Most of them are on the business side of things and are always pitching their 'next big thing' to any programmer willing to listen. The computer science students here also have a huge bias towards working for established companies because startups aren't glorified here like they are in Berkeley and Stanford.Only a few startups in the SoCal area recruit on campus because the cost is so ridiculously high. The CS department and engineer school require that all companies donate tens of thousands to become an industry affiliate before allowing recruiting events. There are loopholes to get around this but it remains a big roadblock for companies without recruiting budgets.UCLA CS environmentVery little diversity. Majority of CS students are male, of Indian, East Asian, or Caucasian descent. The female to male ratio is around 1 to 8. This can make you feel more at home or isolated depending on who you are.Students tend to sit in cliques during lectures. These tend to be grouped by club affiliation, home country, and GPA more than anything else. Chinese international students usually take the front 2 rows and talk loudly amongst themselves all throughout lecture exclusively in Mandarin. The next few rows are occupied by honor society students from UPE, HKN, etc. taking note of every single detail the professor says. The middle rows are usually fairly empty, with groups of frat boys and students from various student engineering clubs falling asleep together. The back rows are for those who either arrived to lecture late or are generally socially isolated in the UCLA CS community. A sizable number of students don't go to lecture and attendance dwindles with each passing week.Curriculum is highly structured. About 80% of the classes in the computer science curriculum are the same for everyone. (You have 3 electives in another engineering or management discipline, 3 science and technology electives, and 3 computer science electives, along with 4 GE classes) It is good for those who just want to get by in school, but be prepared to stay an extra quarter and fight for classes outside computer science that might interest you. (Sci-tech electives are available for different computer science related areas even though many subjects areas do have enrollment restrictions. Design | Media Arts classes are awesome, but you have to beg professors and jump through hoops to enroll in them and petition for elective credit. Linguistics, geology, management, or computational biology are slightly less restricted but still have prerequisites and an approval process.)Class sizes are huge. You won't know all your peers like students from smaller colleges. Lower division classes are taught in lectures of 200+ students and upper division classes are rarely less than 80 students. This can be great if you don't like going to class. Enrolling in classes is still a constant challenge nonetheless.High marks are hard to achieve and cheating occurs regularly. Professors here tend to put a lot more emphasis exam grades than actual learning. In any given class, only the top 15-20% of students receive A's and exam grades account for about 70-100% of the final grade for the quarter. The easiest way to fairly evaluate students on theoretical knowledge with class sizes this large is exams. What happens in actuality is that this grading policy along with cramped lecture halls used for exams create a big incentive to cheat. It is hard to prevent someone from looking at another person’s exam when the neighbors' papers are inches away.Tons of resources of a big university, but that doesn't equate to quality. Counseling and mentorships are usually a miss. Many social efforts that make UCLA Engineering hospitable for incoming students are scattered and organized informally by student organizations instead of by staff. Wifi in some classrooms are so bad they might as well not exist. Taking the stairs is faster than riding the elevators in most buildings. Equipments and software for required physics and electrical engineering labs are insanely outdated and buggy. (I've heard that some have been updated recently in 2015) On the bright side, computer labs are often open and there are enough libraries on campus open around the clock to study at.Lots of great professors, but good number of bad ones as well, especially outside of computer science. Professors such as Smallberg, Nachenberg, Potkonjak, and Eggert define what computer science is about at UCLA and they're amazing at teaching. Potkonjak's jokes and class materials are so good that they became my motivation to wake up in the morning. The same goes for Eggert. Be weary of new/visiting professors, they often have very little teaching experience. (Always check BruinWalk.com for professor reviews so you know what you're getting yourself into. Historical grading curves by classes and professors are recently made available there as well - ‘16.)On the other hand, the CS TA's are mostly socially awkward and timid international students who speak with a very heavy accent. Most of them do not care about how well you do in class and simply regurgitate the professor's lecture one more time during discussion. If you ever get Tuan though, make sure to go to every discussion because his materials are immensely helpful. (Shoutout to Tuan for being the best TA. You're one of the few reasons I survived CS33, CS111, CS131, and a few others at UCLA.)The introductory physics, statistics, and math classes are usually taught by new professors so they're a hit or miss, though often they're quite bad.I tend to disregard those US News and World rankings and most college rankings because provide very little information as to how well an individual fits into the school and what the degree program offers to a student.I hope I've provided a more realistic view of how UCLA engineering is like as a student. A world class university education is not supposed to be sunshine and butterflies most pamphlets and campus tours depict. Schools are intentionally romanticised by their marketing materials so more people will apply, increasing the number of applications, lowering the acceptance rate, and making the school appear more desirable and exclusive in rankings. UCLA is no exception.Q: How good UCLA's CS program is for someone who never programmed before?I'll be honest, your AP scores are not an indication of how well you'll do in college. Neither are your SAT scores or high school GPA. I know plenty of people who scored many 5's and 2200+ on SAT do very poorly in CS, grade wise at least.The best indication of GPA in college for CS is your interest in the subject and work ethic. My best suggestion is to really gauge your interest in computer science and programming as a whole. You might not have touched any of this yet, but go on Codecademy and see if any of those lessons are interesting to you. If you were one of those people that study really hard in high school and made sure you learn all the material, you'll do well academically if you combine that with an interest in your major.But then again, college GPA really isn't a good measure of how well you'll do in your career. It measures how well you study and how well you follow directions. (This includes agreeing with professor's view points, completing trivial but time consuming assignments on time, attending class and going to office hour religiously, etc.) Many companies like Google know this and have made statements about the lack of correlation between GPA and job performance publicly. Again, really make sure that computer science or problem solving is something you're interested in or else you'll hate your career for the rest of your life and underperform at work.As for catching up to everyone else for those who never programmed, there will always be people who know more than you starting out in college. Almost all students will be caught up to the average computer science major by the second or third year in terms of theoretical knowledge in class. It is still up to the student to learn practical programming skills outside of class, through internships or personal projects.Your first year will be tough.College is a very different environment than high school. It takes lots of time and effort to adjust. The intro CS classes are designed as "weeder classes", supposedly separating from the computer science majors from the rest. In reality, they just separate students into two groups - those with programming experience, and those who don't. They move very quickly through a lot of material. Just realize that poor grades in CS31 or CS32 do not disqualify you from becoming a great software engineer. You just have to go the extra mile and attend free tutoring sessions to learn the materials better.Engineering is hard. You'll miss out on many social events throughout your academic career because you need to study or work on projects. Many students abuse study drugs such as Adderall and Retalin to gain an edge over their peers' learning progress. Boelter Hall, where most of your engineering classes will be held, is one of the most depressing and dilapidated places on campus. As a guy, chances are, you will be single. As a girl, prepare to get swamped by awkward nerdy guys offering to study with you, hang out with you, etc. Don't think about partying much - UCLA Engineering isn't American Pie. Very few CS students participate in Greek life but that doesn't mean it's impossible. Also, UCLA has just accepted the largest class of computer science students ever (Spring 2015) so getting into classes will only get harder.You are really just a number here, believe it or not. Yes, tuition is kind of expensive and academics are difficult but UCLA Engineering does provide a great value compared to most private schools. After you graduate, you'll most likely be working at a job from Microsoft or Facebook that pays $100k+ while your liberal arts peers "figure out their life" and contemplate coding boot camps.In any case, attending UCLA will not make or break who you are as a person and what your career will look like in the long run. A diploma is nothing but a very expensive piece of paper that gets you more interviews and UCLA is nothing more than a factory that churns out those papers. Try to figure out what type of environment you enjoy and where you want to be, ie: big vs. small school, startup vs. corporate job, Greek vs. non-Greek social life, school vs. life balance, level of academic rigor, personal financial situation, overall cost of attendance, California vs. East Coast, etc.If I have any advice for incoming CS students, it's that they should definitely explore life outside of computer science, even at the detriment of grades. Learn how to interact with people and experience college life. Go on a date with that cute classmate from your GE class and hang out with people outside of computer science. The social skills and the network of friends you can potentially gain will be more important than the theoretical knowledge from class when it comes to career advancements beyond that entry-level code monkey job. Most people only have one chance to go to college and that extra 0.5 GPA will not matter a year or two after graduation. I don't know a single CS graduate who tried to get a job in a related field upon graduation and was not able to.P.S. Don't be afraid to seek help on homework, career advice, life, etc., but especially mental health. UCLA is stressful. Depression and anxiety are very common among engineers in college and in the workforce. Very few students are willing to talk about these issues because of the "fake it 'til you make it" mentality that many seemingly successful people have. I want to bring this up in light of the recent shootings and also suicides and attempted suicides over the years at UCLA. Know that UCLA has free private counseling and mental health services we all pay for in our tuition so be sure to talk to someone when you need to. Feel free to reach out to me about this as well.(Please don’t send me questions on how to write your application for admissions or gauging your chances are of getting accepted.)

Here is what I have found after working with kids and talking at length with many college admissions to find the college admissions secrets…These are some great tips and secrets to help you navigate the process:Grades, grades, grades and then more grades. Not for every school, but you can’t camouflage or sugar coat or breath spray great grades. Colleges usually count this as the all important factor and with so many kids applying, they may not even look at your application if it’s not in their general GPA ballpark. So make sure you hit it out.Many schools don’t care much about extracurriculars like most of the UC schools, especially UC San Diego or UC Irvine and yet in contrast, the Ivy’s really do care about your activities (that is if you are also close to their standard run of the mill grade and SAT criteria- about a 3.85/4.0 and 1560 SAT)-it’s what separates the standard from the standout(s). If you don’t have them, don’t apply unless it’s Cornell which loves all As, a 1560 SAT and then to top it off, you will likely also need to have great leadership and/or be very involved in campus and do something related to your major and your magically going to be accepted.I know this from spending hours at seminars and speaking to their admissions directors. You don’t need great activities here, but do need to show them you’ll fully take advantage of every type of club and similar activities on campus.They want leaders and doers (not sleepers) at Cornell.The other Ivy’s “secret sauce” if you will, is that the others want insane world or national championship caliber activities only. You have to be in a different league (and why they probably call it the Ivy League-kidding as you know).“Holistic reviews” are a great “buzz word,” but each school has a secret type of the student they want and you can learn that by what students they admit and who they accept and by studying the scores of admitted students too. It’s tough at first,but the patterns do emerge and as it should be. Every school has its special requirements and admit students that are the right fit.Admissions directors are paid to get applications and do a great job with “PR” encouraging everyone who speaks to them to apply and think they have a good chance when under there breath its more like (“Good luck with just playing the piano and in the school choir with all A’s and a 1500 SAT.” Instead, you’ll hear, “Sure we would love to have you apply.” They actually do a great job of getting the information out there and really have to keep their secrets close to the vest or no one who doesn’t even closely meet there requirements will apply right? Would you apply to schools you have almost no shot of getting in? Now after reading this, I hope you won’t or will limit those longshots. And its our job, as such, to uncover those secrets or closely held information. Acceptance and denials tell you much of what you need to know.And the more people the top schools like U Chicago can turn away, the higher the rankings of the school which is why they love to advertise in “bulk mailings” designed to look personal with your name on it where they paid the college board for your information that “we would love to have you at our school and we’re very interested in you” and sadly they’re probably not. But your application fee is needed for a great cause…to pay for special financial consideration for so many students who do need financial aid. So here’s a little secret…when you get those letters, unless you see one telling you that with a certain GPA you’ll get a scholarship tell your kids to “always recycle the trash.” It’s a great lesson.A lot of people want to be National Merit Finalist (16000 earn this designation annually) and my son was but it on average, after what we learned, it will barely helps you get into the top schools. Most schools don’t even look at it. But there are some schools that do actively recruit National Merit students because they too can advertise that they have 200 National Merit Finalist at schools like Baylor University the U of Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, University of Texas Dallas and University of Oklahoma who absolutely love it.If a school offers a National Merit scholarships like the ones in the link below (or for any set and defined scholarships based on an exact GPA or test score, (and some of these schools below generally do), you really have just hit the educational equivalent of the national lottery. You can also “google” for any school you may want to attend the following: “scholarships at U of Alabama or ____.” But please don’t tell anyone about this list of schools below or this search that helped is get many scholarships and it’s not just for narional merit since these schools are usually also the one who life straight A or 1550 SAT kids and have a great scholarship program in place. In other words check and hopefully check mate mate. You will be blown away by this list (and it’s. A great too not just for National Merit Finalists but if you have almost all As or 1550 SAT. Again please don’t tell anyone since our little secret (see below #10)For any of these merit scholarships (and most are guaranteed if you qualify), do apply to many of these schools because they do want you, it’s a great almost guaranteed admit and you’ll be a VIP, getting special enrollment, first chose of roommates and classes, special forums and events to attend and it’s easy if you do well getting into a top PhD program as a big fish in a small pond with easier competition since you're the star there (if you study hard).Guard this list with your life and it will warm your heart (and checkbook)…drum roll: NMF Scholarships (use it if you are a National Merit Finalist or an A close to all A student or 1550/35 ACT (or even lower in some cases lien a 31 ACT) to look up at least in some cases like ASU, U Arizona and U Alabama for their other great scholarships. They really want top students and offer these fixed scholarships anyone with high grades or test scores to get these kids away from the ivys and top 50. Again guard the list with your life. It got my son 10 close to full rides and why did he have to choose UC Davis over these full rides - why me? That is another secret- have them pay themselves if they don’t take a full ride. What was I thinking?The Ivy’s really don’t care at all about National Merit Finalist award. I would believe that if you don’t have a national merit that they would probably look at the application oddly. Kidding, but sort of.Two schools in the country, for their 75% percentile, actually want all A’s and unless you’re a special admit, you have as much chance of getting in as winning the state lottery. Ready and they are UCLA and Cornell and you didn’t hear it from me. The school statements may try to change or breath mint these facts, but the reality of their numbers prove otherwise. Be a perfect high school student or don’t apply and I’m not kidding. Even special admit students at UCLA need a 3.92 GPA out of a 4.0 for their 25th percentile and why they call it special indeed. But it’s our little secret. Ask around and I can almost guarantee that is close to a fact and in fact I know 50 out of 50 non special admits at UCLA who didn't get in without all As and the 4 who did got in had all As as advertised. I’m sure there are exceptions to any rule just not many here. Yep, the deck is stacked at UCLA with a lot of bright straight A students as this great school should be. But don’t apply and save your parents 100 dollars if you don’t have all As as a regular admit. It’s not a reach, but a pipe dream even if a couple of kids probably do get in with some unusual situation due to a few openings.Cal Tech and MIT want a perfect 800 or 36 in math and that’s pretty much a necessity to get in for a non-special admit students (and it’s actually listed as proof on their websites overall with some statistically anomalies on rare occasions-you want to be well done and not “rare” when applying here). It’s the kids they feel they need to be successful here at this intense university (again as it should be). Heck, even the special admit students like first-time college students, American Indian and African American or for those kids and families where they don’t speak with English at home the 25th percentile generally speaking need a 780 in math to be at the 25% percentile. In other words, just do the math to see if you should apply. That and a national robotics title may (should help). With just about 1000 spots worldwide, you’ll absolutely have to prove you are one of the smartest kids in the world by having some major accomplishment - not a regional science award winner but again that is a little secret and why I told a kid I mentor not to apply this year and he did. He didn’t get inDream big but please spend your money wisely and selectively on top 50 ranked school applications. I’m seeing the last three years so many wonderful all A students and also ones with 4.3 GPA and 1500–1560 SAT and great extracurriculars activities getting rejected from every single top 20 school and for these star kids with a 4.3 kids, from every top 50 school (that or bad coaching more likely from me but that’s another secret right-dont listen to anything I say). Just today, they broke the news to a great kid and this no ordinary student with a 4.3 GPA and 1560 SAT and quality extracurriculars too like a regional silver in academic decathalon. But it wasn’t not enough rocket fuel for MIT or CalTech, UCLA and USC (he did hit it big at 95th ranked UC Riveride and 87th Santa Cruz as his only top 100 spots. He was completely shell shocked and I warned him last year and thankfully he listened to some advise by applying to schools outside the top 50. Other kids this year with all As and 1550 were rejected from UCLA, USC and the ivys, but luckily had some great and wise choices by getting into the rest of the top UC schools (Berkeley Davis, Irvine, Santa Barbara and San Diego all top 50). They were smart to not expect admits into any top 30 schools and each hit with Berkeley as their single choice (if that isn’t a lottery pick then what is but all others weren’t interested. It was a wake call for me too. It’s gotten impossible to get in.Here is a little helpful secret and please don’t tell anyone… Generally, the top students at each high school with high SAT almost always will nail admission into the top Public schools in state-great school like U Michigan, U Washington or UCLA/Berkeley, U Colorado etc so do apply to these schools liberally in state. Why? They know in state students will probably attend due to the inexpensive tuition and you might find yourself with limited top private school selection so do use this great tip wisely even if you don’t love going to say Utah State. The kid listed above with a 4.3 GPA is now loving UC Riverside- a school he wasn’t going to apply to (but my convincing)! has him so excited now as he should be to have a top 100 college to attend. It’s a great feeling to get into a super school like Riverside or Michigan State. Never look a gift horse in the mouth. State schools are phenomenal and in par with any school in the country. Leave your egos at the door and you should be beaming with pride to get in. These are special places.There are only 12,000 Ivy League spots open annually and yet there are about 44,000 public and private high schools in the United States. In other words, if you remove international students and about 35% of the applicants which do you go to athletes according to a major recent article on this matter (Google it). And thus, your high school basically has about a one in six shot of getting a single student to the Ivys annually. The deck is a long shot number wise and don’t think your chances are ever great about getting in. Sure if you have top stats, why wouldn’t you apply, but have many many other wonderful choices. Duke and Northwestern and Hopkins are phenomenal world class schools and they love to feast on these kids who don’t have national caliber titles but do have top notch grades scores and activities too so apply liberally to the non Ivy’s for a great shot if your a top student. Again it’s our little secret since everyone wants the Ivy’s and these are much better shots for most top kids. But they still typically don’t take your average A- and 1400 SAT kid playing varsity soccer. They may occasionally, but you have to be top top top student to get in here as well-just not win a national title etc. a state title may work or something high caliber is very important too.And yet if you happen to go to a famous elite private school like Harvard Westlake in Los Angeles (and with 275 seniors only), they miraculously get five kids in annually to Harvard and five into Stanford…surprise surprise (and they boast about it on there website or they used to anyways). Yep it’s the famous old-school, old admissions are alive and well. And as it should be since these kids who got in are heavily vetted with tests that are much tougher than the SAT and a process that makes getting a membership to Augusta Golf Club look pretty easy. Yep it’s a nice chip shot from these schools into the ivy’s as a good student but a round (or year to attend) will set you back $45000 a year (per kid). And for many it’s worth it.Need blind financial aid is not always the case at some schools as per expert comments stating that it can affect your application process -just check with some people on Quora. It usually won’t affect your outcome but the rumors say that it can. I would still apply if you need the money though.Your stated major can actually affect your admissions at many but not all schools. The best are odd ones like Arabic studies or Greek studies or Chinese studies and something that few others study. My nephew got into USC with solid, but not spectacular scores writing about which classes on history he wanted to take and why and his application never made the history pile. It was a modern classic his acceptance and then he changed majors the following year. A straight A kid is now fortunately going to Berkeley undeclared because I suggested that with Berkeley being number 1 in the country for computer science he could have trouble getting in so he applied undeclared. For schools he was way above the 75th percentile for grades and scores like UCSD and UC Irvine, he applied and got into their computer science and he loved Berkeley and said he’ll go and he can still take some classes and if he does well get a BA in it or another field since he’s ok doing many stem majors. This is a highly intelligent kid who listened without any ego and now is going to his dream school. Be very skilled and layer your admission approach so you have so many more Great options. Those who don’t use these types of creative techniques from my perspective usually end up with very few school choices. Let the kids themselves within reason decide, but now they will have so many more wonderful choices and this gives them confidence to be very proud of what he accomplished. It also gives them the essential healthy esteem they need to move on from the college rejections they will get and really be excited about college.Computer science is a big “no no” for most kids unless you aced the SAT and have top grades too and elite scores higher than the standard admit. You want to come from a position of strength. it makes sense in any impacted or heavily applied majors because the admitted kids are usually extremely high performing test takers on average-ok above average is more like it. It’s very competitive and as such do make sure you can add it as a major because that too could be a major problem as well. If your scores are well above the 75th percentile, then yes apply. At some public schools like UCLA the major won’t hurt or help your chances so ask these question first to the admissions office (call is email them for a fast response) and they will always let you know if your major is a “major” deal or minor (puny right?).Another secret is that yes over 40% of kids end up changing majors anyways and so determine if that is an angle you want to play at a few dream schools anyways (or at schools that you are not that into). But more importantly do what is right for you. One son got into UC Davis and NYU by applying to NYU for its very general…general studies even though he wanted computer science and to Davis for economics (supply and demand made that a smarter decision). But to make sure he had some great choices he did apply to computer science at some great schools like U Alabama and U Arizona because his stats were a bit higher for then and it worked out with a lot of great choices. It usually does make sense to take this more layered or latter approach. Our family had to learn the hard way from our oldest son who was rejected by 16/16 top 50 schools for computer science, but he did get a shot at a top 100 school since it’s not as ultra competitive. And the funny part was you guessed it…he changed majors which I believe impacted his school choices. You do want to have a lot of great college options when all is said and done. For computer science (pre med, physics, any engineering major or business at any top school, please do use care and be aware of the difficulty of getting accepted. But these are all great majors as well. For computer science, most kids studying it love the degree and with 50,000 kids getting USA computer science degrees yearly, it’s one of many reasons why it’s so difficult to get in.The schools want you to believe that you can’t bring up your SAT score, but my kids raised their scores from 1200-1560 and 1000 to 1460 with special, elite test prep. It was ridiculous (and ridiculously priced too) but it did get one son many full ride offers even though he had to pick the more expensive school. I should have told him son, you have two choices —pay for the college yourself or I’ll pay for it with a scholarship but I got sucker punched twice. What was I thinking? “But dad I love my school.” My wallet isn’t loving it but it worked out for him so it’s worth it in select cases. You will know.One of the best kept secrets to getting into colleges is (mathematically) to apply to at least 20 schools that you have a shot at getting in. The one son with tons of scholarships applied to 33 schools and it worked wonders. He had a slightly lower GPA and a top SAT score so I didn’t know where he’d get in so like fly swatting blind fold (sort off) we went college fly swatting and caught some flies (and fleas too) with many rejects as expected. The top 30 schools were all fleas and gave us the old collar and a few nice wait lists as U Chicago so nicely does. It’s there nice way of saying no thank you. But we were thankful and respect them for this nice touch. Work hard in school (and your applications) now and as a result enjoy a great college later. Or by default, community college will be calling to many who take the path of least resistance. No pain and no gain. Don’t worry you'll gain a fresh 10 in college anyways so it may as well be at one you love.To have a great shot, if your special and not a special admit is to target the key demarcation line of 75 percentile for your grades and SAT scores and at any school listing, this information as almost all admissions coaches and experts tell you this is a realistic shot for admissions. It’s certainly not a guarantee but a decent chance, a shot at selection. If your also “special” and a special admit, you will really want to focus in on the 25th percentile line. Anything below that mark is a reach school and anything above is safer school (but you are never safe). These days you really need a “safety net” with a lot of schools, but no school is really a safety school anymore in the days of mass student applications and some really high test scores from elite test preps. Use the common apps to apply to an uncommon number of great schools and then you’ll have many wonderful schools to attend. When college gives you lemons (a tough admissions process),simply make lemon aid and add a lot of sugar to sweeten up the outcome. You will need a “twist.”I see many kids I help mentor with 4.3/4.6 GPA including many AP classes and 1500 Sat or 33 ACT scores who get rejected by almost every top 50 school. Be very careful to have many choices since the admit rate is brutal these days and think about the top five students at each high school that your competing with that have these stats or better and with same or better activities. We like to feel we’re special with all of these accolades, but so are so many others with even more impressive accolades. Think of it as like a fun game of poker where you have a sizeable stack of chips that you won but someone else at the table has more than you.Waitlists are part of the waiting game and you have a possible chance at each school so always say yes that your interested if you are, but do let schools know immediately if not as a courtesy to others. My UC Davis son said that many of his friends were waitlisted so it’s is a possible chance of admissions. And here’s a little secret we discovered last year by accident- If it’s a private school, visit on a regular tour near the freshman enrollment deadline and do let them know nicely how grateful you are that you are a “waitlistee“ (a new word in the American Heritage Dictionary now) and you’ll be surprised when like my sons’s close friend how they pulled him aside and offered him a spot few minutes into the tour as they did at 14th ranked Vanderbilt. Why… part of successs is showing up (and demonstrated interest) so he hit the jackpot therein on a whim to visit. And if you think about it, this was a brilliant move showing interest at a key point in time. Check and chekcmate (mate) for being brilliant and showing up) but he actually also got in the waitlist at UC Santa Barbara too and went there (he had 6 waitlist and 2 acceptances from them and after taking tours too. It more difficult at a public school though. But give it the old college try and try this army tactic if you will. Show up at the admissions office of the school that you were waitlisted at and ask to speak to admissions directors (not the front desk person) and let them know it’s your dream school and then magically you just might end up waking up from a dream and into your dream school. sometimes kids get in a week after school has started and will abandon ship for their dream school.If you get into a school like U Alabama ranked 120 or so— this is an amazing school as is U of Arizona or Baylor. It’s someone’s dream school so if you get in and then visit and be proud of getting into these or other amazing schools. Hold your head up high at any admitted school and be proud. It’s truly a special honor and one that few in the country get to have. Schools outside the top 20 or 40 are unbelievable and you should be so excited to go to a school that the school which chose you feels you are a perfect fit. They know best. And the competition is a little easier at a school where the average is a 3.3 GPA than competing against almost all A students at UCLA. I’m not saying by any means turn down UCLA but the glass here is really half full and not empty wherever you go so look at the bright side (and upside too) for you to ace college and get into a top grad school.This is a huge secret…and a fact, a reality, a truism and it will save you from transferring in two years from a bad fit college. Trust me it happened to me at Santa Barbara as I was encouraged to save money and not go to USC-huge mistake and two years later I was loving USC every waking moment (when I did awake-joking mostly). The key determiner where you go for college for four years of your life (many take 6 years now so choose carefully) should be how well you get along with others here so talk to many students and staff and make sure you would absolutely enjoy being there for four years and not because it’s ranked 10 spots higher than the other. I would choose the lower ranked school in a heartbeat if it’s a much better fit (and you get in). Big fish in small ponds become PhD students (or masters) at top 30 colleges. This is the most underrated and least utilized secret in the list and read it twice or you’ll transfer and hate your school. Maybe this was why I had a bit of a soft spot for my sons choice of Davis over Alabama and it worked out since he loved the school…if you don’t love it don’t attend please. Would you marry someone you like and not love? Of course not and the same holds for college. “Love it or you’ll leave it.”The schools themselves really know where you fit in and if you don’t get in to your Dream school, it’s perfect so just study harder and then prove it to them when you go to their grad school.State public schools like U Michigan or U Texas give major advantages to in state students so buyer beware. You have a major advantage generally being a top student and applying in state… I must state. For example, U Texas is amazing school that everyone in Texas should have at the top of the list. However with only 10% of out of state students getting in (hint you’ll get into top 20 schools as well and probably won’t go here) so why apply unless it’s your dream to attend from out of state. The UC are a better choice for out of state kids…Why? because they take 2–4x as many kids As U Texas and the competition is actually usually easier than from the intense in state California competition, since you are actually only competing against that group of kids. And it’s the same for international spots but they also take much less than national kids. I have found it’s actually a bit easily to get in at the UC schools especially internationally than from the intense CA beauty pageant going on in state. At the UC schools, the very elite out of state kids are usually targeting the ivys so if you are just a smidgen below, you will have a statistically better batting average at the UC schools choice. In state, Texas is a brilliant choice as a top Texas student and people don’t realize what an underrated and amazing place it is and not just for football. U Michigan is one of the best schools in the world too if you get in here too. The top public schools are phenomenal and all under rated by the polls. if you are a top student always target your best two state schools even as back up targets so you’ll hit a bullseye regardless. Let’s keep this public secret private ok?So many kids are focused just on the top ranked schools, but if you also focus on the schools ranked 70–150th (and those unranked) , which are phenomenal btw, with top GPA or SAT scores you’ll likely get some incredible schooling and scholarship offers. Some of the best scholarship secrets are schools like U Alabama, U Oklahoma (it’s better than OK), U Arizona, Arizona State, LSU (they even tell you how much you’ll earn with their on site scholarship calculator so calculate your savings and bag a great admit too with a very high SAT score or GPA (and sometimes with a 3.5 GPA or 1300 SAT. These are smart application choice because admissions at a reduced rate is almost guaranteed. Have some great choices out of the gate. You’ll relax on your other applications.Life can be a breeze … if you get into many of the UC schools since its surprisingly still somewhat of a secret that many are in some of the best and most beautiful places in the world. UC Santa Barbara overlooks a scenic cliff on the Pacific Ocean and to chill or ”chillax,” the kids walk to the sandy beach off campus (Sorry Harvard and Chicago) but the school is breezy,and easy (ier) and a great choice if you stand the admissions heat (I mean sunshine). Ditto for UC San Diego. La Jolla is considered the nicest part of San Diego and it’s an incredible city with beachfront cliffs. Most students will you love it here and some take up surfing if you want (or shopping). likewise, UC Irvine is 10 short minutes from famous Newport Beach, the best and most scenic beach city in Orange County with the best surfing, shopping and scenery anywhere in California. UCLA is a beautiful conclave and among the most scenic communities in Los Angeles- 20 minutes from the ocean and nearby skiing (same day). Davis campus is insane and outside awaits a 1940 movie type old town with classic modern buildings on campus. The UC schools are really amazing from many standpoints not to mention jobs. Do factor in the weather as to whether or not you will want to attend the school of your dreams. Do you like hot weather or cold, four seasons or for some more of a Four Seasons small private college. Do you like hiking fishing and the outdoors and staying inside, a large campus or small; big city or rural….etc. These see below important. I wouldn’t do well in Chicago as much as love the city. For me it’s “Sunshine on my shoulders (great song)” but look at more than the rankings and especially the fit part.Always look closely at the published admit rates and also at the number of applicants. Getting into a UC School is not a breeze unless you have almost all As and secondarily a top SAT score. There is a reason UCLA has more applications about 115,000 than any school in the country and most of the UC are close. Great schools, great values great places to spend four years and Ca employees really respect them. Use math to eliminate schools likely to eliminate you like the ivys which average only 1500 admits worldwide. Seriously what are your real chances of a school that admits 7% of the best, and don’t ever just focus on the ivys and instead always select a wider net and include top schools with a much better acceptance rate like a. Georgetown, Vanderbilt, U Purdue, Virginia etc.Like in geometry, use the angles. For example, how many kids from California are applying to U North Carolina or U Madison Wisconsin (two amazing schools) so when you do you’ll have a chance at one heck of a school by going off the normal grid. Or what North Dakota State and you just mind find yourself getting in with lower stats. I’ve never heard of a top local kid I know doing this trick but it’s a brilliant move. Top Kids from California tend to fly together and apply to all of the UC, some Ivys, maybe a few like Duke or Georgetown but rarely to UNC or Ohio State (Michigan yes)…Applying off of the grid… gets you on the grid and why kids from Alaska do very well getting into top schools so all 50 states are represented (a little known but true secret). Most of all, be that “diversity” candidate or a person the admission director is thinking really why is a kid from San Diego applying to North Dakota State and if so they must want to go here so let’s let them in. Angle off the grid for a few select college choices.Please don’t tell anytime this secret-only 500 US kids apply to Oxford/Cambridge annually so make sure you schedule their own special test (required here) at least one year out since my son couldn’t get a chance to take it 3 months out. Also the tests are insane, so do study for it for a year if interested like you would the SAT. And they do admit 18% and less from US. I’d choose either school over almost any US college but that is another secret I won’t discuss here…The very top, elite schools like Harvard, Yale and U Washington, Duke, John Hopkins etc (all great schools) are trying to gauge your interest so go their summer school and events and tours. This is one of the biggest secrets yet joining Harvard or MIT for a summer school program and doing well even if it’s used to get into Northwestern. This is a huge admissions boost so see what programs they have for high school kids or spend the summer on your own taking a few classes and you have proven to admissions directors you have what it takes to attend an elite college. It’s expensive but spend the summer at Boston as the best money you’ll likely ever spend. And also do Email the admissions departments regularly, click in there website regularly etc since they keep track. Give them some love and they may love your application, effort and it will make a difference if you are a great candidate. Had my son been a little more outgoing during his hour phone interview I helped set up with an amazing admissions director at Cornell, I believe he would have had an offer.You can develop a great repoire with admissions directors (as a parent too) occasionally and if your son is daughter is the right fit you’ll have a possible acceptance. Occasionally call, email and ask to visit with them. Life is about developing relationships and I still communicate with the retired Cornell admission director who was incredible helpful to our family and my understanding of the elite admission processes. I still regularly talk or email to the past Cornell assistant admissions director and consider her a friend. She has been a huge help over the years and a great source for information.Here is an interesting “secret” for athletes (or top performers/artists)-For any friends, family or parents of a star athlete that you know-for someone who will be a recruited, division one caliber athlete where they can play for a team like- they can “vault” into an ivy league school. Ivy’s don’t give any athletic scholarships but more importantly, they do offer amazing financial aid to anyone accepted who applies within a set financial matrix.This is listed on their financial aid website (and with calculators too in some cases. And its why at Princeton (the top ranked US News school), if your parents makes under $300,000 and in other cases under $200,000, and you apply you will get a very liberal (not a degree per se) but a generous financial aid package covering a nice part of your tuition.And it gets even better at the $140,000 a year and is very nominal or free at around $90,000-$120,000 income level. Most ivy’s have similar aid packages making a private education similar or in some cases cheaper than most public schools. For those with top level talent, the coaches have several slots per Division 1 only sports that are almost guarantees forabide by the specific college rules on how and when to contact to let them know your interest level too. To get more info too, you can google “athletics and special admissions at the ivys’ and you will enjoy reading why about 30% of all admits now go to athletes.Now that you read this you too can be one of the “crew.” Regardless, its one way to “bank” an ivy education. And as it should be. Beating Yale at Harvard takes a lot of work and coach recruiting so if you have this level of talent, why play at your state school when you can possible attend an Ivy for free. But don’t tell anyone. Its also our little secret.Take every AP class possible which will save you money on college (up to $77,000 for one year)…if you pass your AP classes with 4 and 5 (or 3s on occasion) this can also help you graduate up to a year early or give you the freedom to double major which is also very smart and distinctive. Typically most Universities will accept a 4 or 5 on the AP test for credit and some a 3 but it varies widely and most students get some but not all credit for their AP classes. And for ones they don’t do be sure to take the same class again and then nail it in college for a so called “Mickey” (as in Mouse) class or an easy A.And it’s a great grade boost for most colleges too. Here is another secret…the UC schools as per several admissions directors have told me they gauge closely having 9 or more AP classes as a major admit factor. It shows them that you took advantage of all that school had to offer by challenging yourself academically .One kid at spring break told me that his AP classes were harder than his computer science classes in colleges and really helped prepare him too. most top schools including the private schools look very closely and ask or calculate this key admission factor. It’s incredible how important this overlooked item is in your acceptance process…My suggestion, as tough as these classes are in high school, is to try within reason to take every AP class that you can handle like a Vegas Buffet. Even if you get a “B” or a 3 on some of the AP test, you’ll probably be able to ace each class again as well as your regular classes at college due to the rigor you had and that is much more important than getting As in high school.The goal of college really should be to focus on getting into grad school or getting great grades for a job since you will a need a minimum of a 3.0 GPA for virtually every Fortune 500 company later (many want a 3.7 GPA so put in the hard work when you. Party a little now and party a lot more in the future.Hard work now will likely help you succeed later in college and beyond so use AP classes, not to game the system, but to learn everything you can. And if you don’t get a 4 or 5 on the Ap test take AP calculus once agoan in college and it should be an A if you work hard again. Just do the math right? I like to say AP classes show your Ap-titude.Here are a few secrets for great extracurrulars? College love leaders who start a few popular clubs and serve as president; It never hurts being student body president either. Put in 400 hours over 3 summers of volunteering at a well known charity and that is a huge positive in your application and hours do count. College love any type of home run activities especially extracurriculars such as speech and debate (you can’t debate that), Academic Decatahlon and Science Bowl, plus any national competition like Siemens or Intel competitions. First, speech and debate for the top participants in any state will likely land you a half or full ride and even better special admission at a great school that has this team. My friend at USC got in as one of the top debaters in Illinois with a half ride and with very low GPA too. We couldn’t believe it and debated the merits therein but that is another story. The best activity (a true secret) to help prepare you for college is Academic Decathalon and it has 11 subjects that will actually help you decide what to major in or a major advantage. My son is going to get his PhD in economics when he graduates from Davis due to him loving economics here and winning a silver at states in it. The kids spend about 3 hours a day and when they go to college almost all of them destroy the curve because it’s so easy in comparison and taking a multiple choice is quite easy for them. We know one kid who has straight As in computer science at number one 1 ranked Berkeley and he said academic Decathalon was much tougher than any class at Berkeley. Another had a 3.9/4.9 in high school and now has 3.85 in computer science and econ at ecom and says college is pretty easy in comparison. They also do interview and speech so the kids become expert interviewers for college and grad school and make lifelong friends and the team has spots for A B and C students. Any kid should strongly consider taking this incredible extracurricular activity and the likelihood of it helping you get top grades and a PhD after college is always positive. Two of my kids did it and since both are almost done, don’t tell anyone but it’s our little (I mean big) secret. Also colleges love it too since it shows you love learning for learning sake and the kids do usually get into better schools than many of their peers with a slight bump for college admissions from what I have seen. Yes doing so is clearly ….“Academic.”A Summer school secret-If your first choice is a school that happens have a special “summer program for high school students” and run in conjunction with the University…then that program could be your “lottery admit ticket” since: A) it shows you are very interested in attending that college (and likely accept if they offer) B) you can talk about it in your essay with personal insights others don’t and C) it shows interest and likely acceptance of an offer. My son’s best friend did this program at Emory (it’s incredible), and sure enough he applied for Early Decision and bingo he hit the lottery with a 4.3 GPA and a 1500 SAT and qualify extracurriculars (into a top 22 ranked school). Then for a “double double,” his family hit the jackpot twice (or paid the slot machine twice depending upon how you look at) when his younger brother did the same thing and is now a legacy and he got in this year. Emory knew he too was dying to go their school (and it was a layup for them by admitting him) since his brother clearly loved it and had him apply. They got two top students guaranteed and kept it all in the family. I also noticed that Princeton loves our kids High School and is the only Ivy League school to regularly offer the public high school an annual admit. Is it by chance… no chance lol is my belief. They know the too kids do well.Both factors are secrets in helping you to heavily increase your odds and especially if a sibling is attending, and don’t forget to also apply to the same school and mention this fact. Why? Now the school knows you’ll most likely accept if you apply since your brother or sister loves it so much they told you to apply. Getting admits to accept their offer of admissions will in fact improve the schools rankings so this factor tells them they have a great shot at getting you… you are a “layup” for them so use this strategy to obtain tough admits. Call the school and find out about the summer school to. For elite colleges aces high school summer school works or even getting two As at Harvard or UCLA is a major green flag (meaning this kid can handle the heat. But if you aren’t brilliant it could also backfire if you get a C so drop any such class I’d you can. Getting As at any major university especially an Ivy or MIT may not be a slam dunk but it close to a layup for admissions if you have good enough scores to get into the main pile. Think about this logically… applicant A is perfect and is applicant B but applicant B took 2 classes at Harvard summer school and got all As. Who ya gonna call…Ghostbusters. No kid B. And taking classes at any elite college will help you get in (or get a possible scholarship if exceptional in every way) into many more colleges and it’s a game changer but with major risks if you do poorly…the so called double edged sword. But if an incredible student in one area put it off the glass softly for a winning basket.Early Decision (ED). Like any other decision in life, this could be your equivalent of the educational lottery (in a good way. Making an early decision for early decision will substantially increase your odds of acceptance, but nevertheless, it’s a case of buyer beware since it’s almost always binding so only do ED if you love the school and do it early. I would strongly advise someone who would love to get into a top ivy to do this and only pick your first choice (not your best chance because you’ll have to live with-and love your choice). It is highly underutilized by top public schools (and I don’t understand why) but it’s always encouraged at private high schools for a smart reason-demonstrated interest. And if your rejected/deferred, usually (not always) you’ll still get a second chance/look in the regular admit pool so you get a double double (ok and a cheesy comment or too right)? Similarly, I would also suggest taking “Early Action (EA) whenever possible at a larger range of schools as permitted… but -again please do read the fine print listed for any school for both because there are a lot of predetermined outcomes hinging on each and in some cases legal binding enrollment (hint your stuck going here unless you can prove financial aid didn’t meet your full need). Spend a lot of time studying and reading up on both and really understand the nuances. I would call severs of the school admission officers (or email them) for their own details. But please don’t tell anyone at the public schools since so few students these days that I have seen including my own bothered to take advantage of this major admissions advantage. It’s also important to usually apply earlier than their regular deadline as a general suggestion.Timing wise, I believe it’s always much better to try to finish some of your applications (or if a self starter) all of them over the summer. Doesn’t it make sense to be finished when everyone else stresses last minute near December and during school which is a major student stressor. Be relaxed, and grab a Starbucks or Net flix while your friends are stressing out big time. Why would anyone do that to themselves (hint most do) when you can likely give yourself a small boost by trying to be the top candidate to apply and on day one. To me anyways, it does show your interest in their school to put them first or early. A family friend whom I advised this year had a possible shot at Princeton as a top all A diversity student from a school they love offering similar diversity students annually. However he waited until the last moment, got behind and he couldn’t apply. This was a major mistake but a life learning moment.. “Showing up” is the number one key to success. Apply yourself and apply early as another big secret. It will open you up to adding many more schools as friends apply and you say you know what I would love to attend Georgetown so you simply crank out another Georgetown app… Soon enough, you are heading off to Washington DC for one great school because you had the time to apply. Always apply and also apply yourself.Don’t ever stress out over college (the best secret of all), because community college is the best option for many kids and if you ace it, you can often times go anywhere in the country. You’ll save money and sure it’s not like a 4 year college but my son did it and loved it and the kids are exceptional here too.For the right kids, usually hard working ones without a super high GPA or SAT score or even without a ego of feeling they need a four year school, community college is a truly a brilliant way to get into many top colleges (and sometimes with scholarships) with solid grades, but remember you do lose out two years of college life “for better or worse.”My oldest got into electrical engineering this way at UC Santa Cruz with a 3.3 GPA, but he also get rejected from UCLA, UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara and UC Berkeley and that major is brutal for kids (another secret-watch out for that and computer science in college unless you are incredible at these subjects.Most of all, enjoy the process itself, and it ends up correct in most situations. The colleges know what they are doing; sadly most students do not because they don’t know how the game worksI loved the question and good luck to you. In the end, going to college was found recently in a study to pay 85% more than a high school degree so the fact your attending is worth every penny. Best of luck to you

If the primary goal of the ACA is to move the population substantially towards universal coverage, the data shows that it is making significant progress towards that goal. It is no panacea for the diseases of the American health care system, but—judged by its own goals—it seems to represent a modest improvement on the status quo.However, there are worrying signs that its gains may not be sustainable. Important metrics in the individual insurance market are moving in the wrong directions, which may be a sign that some of the ACA’s core mechanisms are poorly calibrated and unstable. If they are, the individual insurance market may collapse—and fixing it will be politically difficult for the Democrats.Increasingly InsuredLeaving aside various mandates for specific benefits, like women’s contraception and preventative care, the primary goal of the ACA is to increase access to health insurance, and thereby increase access to health care for those who were previously uninsured. CDC data on health insurance has so far been rosy: More people have health insurance than ever before, and the subgroups specially targeted by the ACA are growing most of all.Medicaid ExpansionThe most straightforward part of the ACA to evaluate is the expansion of Medicaid, both by raising the income cap to 133% of the poverty line and by removing other state-specific conditions which tended to shut out those who were young, male, unmarried, or childless. This has been very successful: Far fewer poor people were uninsured in 2015 than in 2010.Moreover, this nearly twenty-point reduction in the ranks of the uninsured poor occurred without the 19 states which refused to implement the Medicaid expansion. Courtesy of their Republican legislatures, we have an interesting natural experiment: Did states which implemented the Medicaid expansion see different changes in insurance than states which didn’t? The answer is yes, they did: People who were insured by public programs in states with the Medicaid expansion have remained uninsured in states without the expansion.Medicaid isn’t the greatest insurance, of course, and there are some interesting studies suggesting that Medicaid may have more of an impact on your bank statements than your blood tests. But whatever Medicaid’s benefits may be, they are clearly now being provided to many more people than before.Young Adult CoverageThe ACA includes a provision requiring that insurance plans which cover children continue that coverage until age 26. Combined with the Medicaid expansion, this has dramatically reduced the number of adults 18–24 without insurance.This is important for members of this age group because they are usually either students or entry-level employees and would struggle to afford health insurance. But it’s important to the health care system as a whole because young adults are less likely to actually need to use their insurance.Health insurance works by having many healthy people pay for a few sick people. If there aren’t enough healthy people, each person will have to pay a higher premium. Young adults are a large group of healthy people, but they are not in a position to pay for themselves. By getting their parents to pay for them instead, however, they are included in the pool.(Yes, the ACA says that this coverage expansion is free. But like most laws requiring a company to provide something for “free”, the cost ultimately will be incorporated into something else.)The ‘Uninsurable’If allowed to choose their customers, insurers will virtually never choose to enroll somebody with a pre-existing condition which is expensive to treat. From their perspective, it’d be like betting on a horse that has been scratched from the race: There is zero chance that they will make money on that customer. You could still get insurance through an employer plan, but the individual market was essentially closed to you: Plans would either be very expensive, or completely unavailable.Under the ACA, this is no longer permitted: Insurers may not look at the specifics of a person’s health history when deciding whether to accept their application. Nor may they exclude pre-existing conditions from their coverage, or set a dollar limit on the amount of care they will provide. This is obviously a boon for anybody with expensive health issues.Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to find any pretty graphs or detailed numbers to illustrate this point, perhaps because the number of ‘uninsurable’ people appears to have been relatively small. At various times, state and federal governments ran “high-risk pools”, special insurance programs which were allowed to operate at a loss so they could provide insurance to the uninsurable. Enrollment in these programs, however, never rose above roughly 200,000 nationwide. Partly this was because of the stringent requirements of the programs, but even so, it seems likely that there were enough uninsurable people to provide many anecdotes, but not much data.OverallThough these specific groups saw the greatest improvements in insurance access, the ACA has done enough to have an impact on the overall population. In the previous graphs, you’ve probably noticed that nearly all of the lines were going in the right direction. Here’s the overall numbers, with as much context as changes in the CDC survey permit; keep in mind that ACA passed in 2010 and most provisions kicked in during 2014.The first 13 years of this century were characterized by people falling out of the private insurance market and landing either in public insurance or outside of any insurance at all. The introduction of the ACA marked a sharp turning point where the uninsured began to fall rapidly, and though some of them moved to public programs, most reentered the private insurance market.These are the kinds of numbers you would hope to see if the ACA is going to do what it was intended to do.Storm Clouds on the HorizonUnfortunately, the story is not quite that simple. While the Medicaid expansion is working alright, the insurance exchanges—the mechanism meant to increase coverage of middle-class individuals who aren’t insured by an employer—are experiencing some issues. And although they are minor right now, they could presage a massive failure of a crucial mechanism.The Troubled ExchangesThe ACA includes exchanges (the “Health Insurance Marketplace”) on which those who are not eligible for Medicaid can purchase private insurance plans. It also includes subsidies for the least wealthy exchange customers; the subsidies gradually decrease until you reach 400% of the poverty level, at which point you must pay the full price of your premiums.Subsidies are calculated based on the premium of the second-lowest “silver”-tier plan on the exchanges in your area, so the price of that plan is very important. And on the whole, the premiums on these plans seem to be rising.The above chart is a composite of data from two different reports, and I can’t recalculate their weighted average for all three years. However, the preliminary 2017 report indicates that in 2016, on average premiums for these plans rose 5%, whereas in 2017 they look to be rising 9%. A final report for 2016 covering more cities indicated that premiums rose 3.6% in 2016, versus -0.3% in 2015. The -0.3% and 9% numbers can’t be directly compared, but looking at both pairs together, this looks like premiums are not only growing each year, but the growth is accelerating.Accelerating premium growth could be an issue for the subsidies. The ACA includes a cap on the total amount of the subsidies it pays. That means that, if costs continue to grow, eventually the subsidies will not keep up with that growth. Costs will rise for the lower middle class, pushing them out of their insurance plans.Another worrying sign for the exchanges is that the number of insurers participating in each market appears to be falling.Unlike the previous chart, here we do have coherent average numbers (they’re the first set of bars), and they clearly show that insurers are pulling back.Why? Insurers say these plans are operating at a loss, because the patients they’re enrolling are sicker than they expected. I touched on this earlier, when I was talking about getting young people to participate in the insurance market:Health insurance works by having many healthy people pay for a few sick people. If there aren’t enough healthy people, each of them will have to pay more.What we are seeing is that sick people are signing up for insurance through the exchanges, while healthy people are avoiding them. Some insurers are responding by raising prices, but this will likely drive away some healthy people, making the insurance pool even sicker. Other insurers are leaving the exchanges entirely because they have concluded they simply can’t make it work there.That’s a very, very dangerous sign, because it indicates that the forces at work in the private market are out of balance in a way that might accelerate.A Pair of SticksEarlier, I mentioned that the ACA aimed to help people with pre-existing conditions get health care. To do that, the ACA imposed guaranteed issue and community rating rules: insurers must enroll all applicants regardless of health status, and must offer the same price to all enrolled individuals. In other words, the government forced the insurance companies to accept all comers, no matter how risky they are.This has an obvious danger, however: People could cheat the system by enrolling only when they needed medical care. For instance, a person who needed an expensive knee surgery could sign up for an insurance plan, pay the premium while they’re getting the surgery and physical therapy, and then cancel the plan afterwards. If you think about the “many healthy people paying for a few sick people” model, this is a worst-case scenario: almost everybody is sick, so the sick people are basically just paying their own bills.To prevent this, therefore, the ACA provides two reasons not to cheat.The first is the enrollment periods. You cannot buy insurance on the exchanges just any time you feel like it; you must either buy it during the open enrollment period, which runs through the end of January, or during a special enrollment period, which is triggered by certain changes happening in your life, like getting married, moving, or losing an employer’s insurance benefit. This makes cheating much riskier: If you decide not to get insurance in January and then find out you have cancer in March, you could be dead before you can see a doctor.The second is the mandates. The employer mandate requires most employers to provide insurance to most of their full-time employees, while the individual mandate requires individuals to have health insurance. If they don’t, the IRS will assess a special penalty against them. (For legal purposes, this is technically a special tax.)In theory, these two mechanisms should force everybody to have health insurance, so nobody can cheat. The problem is, so far they haven’t been strong enough. It’s too easy to trigger a special enrollment period by marrying a long-time boyfriend/girlfriend or moving in with a relative; it’s too easy to evade the employer mandate by shaving a few extra hours from part-time employees’ schedules; and it’s too easy to ignore the individual mandate because if it’s not paid, the only consequence is that it’s deducted from any tax refunds—the usual consequences of failing to pay taxes don’t apply.How do we know these are issues? Because the administration has tightened the rules about special enrollment periods. Because the number of workers working just below 30 hours per week is rising, while the number working just over 30 is falling. Because nearly a third of the people taking the penalty could get insurance for the same price or lower.And ultimately, we know these are issues because the uninsured rate is not dropping sharply enough among less-insured demographics. Let’s take another look at that age chart from before:Previously, I pointed out that the 18–24 line has declined steeply because of the young adult coverage provision. But the 25–34 and 35–44 lines have not. We want these relatively more healthy age groups to take up insurance more quickly than the 45–64 group, increasing the number of healthy people whose premiums can support the sick. But instead, their lines are running roughly parallel to their elders.(The 25–34 line is a little steeper than the others, but of course 25-year-olds are covered by the young adult provision, and the Medicaid expansion also targeted the young end of this age group.)In other words, the government has one set of sticks it’s using against the insurers to make them enroll everyone who asks, and a different set of sticks it’s using against individuals to force them to enroll with an insurer. But the sticks being used against individuals aren’t as sturdy as the ones being used against insurers, and so individuals aren’t doing what’s needed for the exchanges to work properly.Now, those sticks are getting sturdier. As mentioned, the government has made the rules around special enrollment periods more stringent, and the individual mandate’s penalty will only reach its full amount this year. But so far, they have not been enough, and it’s not clear they can get strong enough without action by Congress.The Death SpiralIf the mandates and enrollment periods are not strong enough, there’s a serious danger the market for individual coverage will enter a death spiral. (Yes, that’s really the technical term.) As the pool of insured people gets sicker, premiums will have to rise. This will cause more healthy people to give up their insurance, making the pool still sicker, and repeating the process. Eventually individual insurance will be too expensive to be cost-effective for anyone, and people will have to get covered by employers or do without insurance.This sounds like a farfetched scenario, but it has happened repeatedly when individual states tried to implement guaranteed issue and community rating rules. A “friend of the court” brief filed in support of the ACA described this to the Supreme Court:…prior reforms in Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, and Washington that prohibited risk-based underwriting but did not require the purchase of insurance or provide other significant incentives for obtaining insurance resulted in markets with “death spiral” characteristics.In Washington, for example, the Legislature reformed the individual health insurance market in 1993 to guarantee that residents could purchase insurance based on community—and not individual—rates. During the first three years, premiums in Washington’s individual health-insurance market increased by 78 percent. Enrollment fell by 25 percent. By September 1999—six years after the reforms had been introduced—all but two of the State’s nineteen private health insurers had withdrawn from the market, and the last two had announced their intention to withdraw. “[T]he individual market had essentially collapsed.” Washington repealed the market reforms in 2001.New York experienced a similar dynamic. In 1992, the Legislature reformed the health-insurance market by guaranteeing the issuance of insurance at community-based rates. These reforms prompted a “sharp decline” of the individual insurance market. In 1992, 1.2 million New Yorkers purchased individual insurance policies. But premiums had increased 35–40% by 1996. By 2010, only 31,000 New Yorkers remained in the individual insurance market—a decrease of 97%. At that point, the only people who participated in the market were those who were “very sick (and affluent).” Those reforms thus made health insurance cost and availability considerably worse, rather than better, and the flaws of those failed attempts are now well understood.Before we get too excited, let’s put this in perspective: The premium increases we’ve seen so far have not been anywhere near 78%. The average exchange has lost 1.1 of its 6.9 insurers, not 17 of 19. And thus far, coverage through the exchanges has not fallen at all, let alone by 97%:(When reading this chart, note that the open enrollment period creates a spike each Q1, so you really have to compare numbers to the corresponding year-ago quarters.)Still, these indicators are moving in a direction that the ACA’s supporters did not anticipate, and one which is consistent with a serious, known failure mode the ACA was designed to avoid. It is hard to see this as a good thing.The Rock and the Hard PlaceIf the enrollment periods and mandates truly are too weak, an act of Congress could strengthen them, which in theory ought to correct the issue. However, doing so would be politically difficult.I will present three different scenarios, depending on how the election goes down.Scenario Red: President Trump and a Republican CongressI will assume that Trump doesn’t start a nuclear war or do any of the other extremely rash and destructive things Democrats fear he will do. Maybe Paul Ryan put a leash on him.With the ability to pass any legislation they please, the Republicans will want to repeal the ACA, but they will quickly run into a difficult problem: What will they replace it with? Certain parts of the ACA, like the young adult provisions, are quite popular. And unfortunately for them, guaranteed issue and community rating are among the popular provisions—but the individual mandate needed to implement them is one of the most hated among Republicans.The solution may simply be to gut parts of the bill that only appeal to liberals (the Medicaid expansion, the contraceptive mandate, the (failing) insurance co-op provision), make some cosmetic changes to the core middle-class insurance market mechanisms, and declare victory. Essentially, they’d just be taking ‘Obamacare’ and putting fifty-foot gold letters spelling “TRUMP” on the top. It wouldn’t be the first time.This scenario could be considered a success for the ideas at the core of the ACA, but it certainly wouldn’t be a success for the Democratic Party or the delicate work to build a coalition behind the ACA as passed in 2010.Scenario Purple: President Clinton and a Republican or Divided CongressCongress will continue the game with Clinton that they began with Obama in 2011. Republicans will try to pass bills to repeal the ACA, which will fail. Clinton will take various actions to try to embarrass Congress into cooperating, which will fail. Both sides will accomplish little through these actions except rallying their respective bases.If a death spiral begins to occur, Clinton will implement various measures, of increasingly dubious legality, in an attempt to slow or stop it. They are unlikely to succeed. She will ask Congress to fix it, but they will send her more repeal bills. Meanwhile, the individual insurance market will slowly destroy itself. Eventually either Clinton will cave or the exchanges will crater entirely.In 2020, Clinton will try to blame the carnage on the Republicans, but this will fall on deaf ears. After all, the ACA was conceived, legislated, and executed wholly by Democrats; all the Republicans did was try to keep them from going through with their foolish plan. Clinton will likely be crushed in her reelection campaign, unless the Republican base makes an even stupider decision when nominating. David Duke, perhaps.Scenario Blue: President Clinton and a Democratic CongressAn all-Democratic federal government will finally be able to tweak the ACA, smoothing many of the wrinkles and incorporating some of the ‘creative’ interpretations the Obama administration used to work around mistakes into the law. For instance, they would almost certainly patch the gap in the subsidies created by Republican state legislatures unexpectedly refusing to implement the Medicaid expansion. They might even enact a public option in an unconvincing show of Bern-feeling.However, they will not want to touch the individual mandate. The mandate is arguably what limited their last majority to a single term; they will not be eager to repeat that experience.If a death spiral begins, though, they won’t have much of a choice. Oh, they’ll try to delay it; they might even implement some stopgaps which will put it off for an election or two. But sooner or later, they’ll either be forced to strengthen the mandate, or to enact a much larger reform and effectively concede that the ACA was a mistake.(Incidentally, introducing a public option would not arrest the death spiral; it is not caused by insurers seeking profit, but by insurers seeking to cover their losses. A public option would cease to be politically viable if it generated huge deficits, which is what would happen if it tried to hold down prices in a death spiral.)No matter how they addressed a death spiral, the meltdown of the ACA on their watch would be an electoral disaster for the Democrats. If it happens before 2020, Clinton will likely be a one-term President. And then, of course, the Republicans will have a crack at the ACA; I already discussed what that would probably mean.ConclusionIn terms of expanding coverage, the ACA is currently succeeding very well among the subgroups it specifically targets and moderately well in the population as a whole. There are fewer uninsured Americans today than at any point since 1997, which probably means there are fewer uninsured than ever before.However, the prospect of a death spiral casts a pall over this apparent success. If one occurs, it will most likely spell the end of either the ACA or the Democrats’ chances in the next election. Would the Democrats consider the law a success if it threw them out of power not just once, but twice? I’m not so sure—but that’s an answer to a different question.In short, it’s too soon to tell whether the ACA is a success or a failure. But sitting here in 2016, what we can say is that we have narrowed the set of possible outcomes. The ACA did not cause costs to drop like a stone*; nor did it force the nation’s elderly to file through death panels; nor did it achieve perfect, universal coverage; nor did it lead inexorably to single-payer. It seems like there are two possibilities left: modest success at achieving many of its goals, or a critical miscalculation in a crucial part of the bill with costly political consequences.—* I’m up against the deadline, so unfortunately I don’t have time to deeply explore health care cost control, which was the other major goal of the ACA. In brief: the US spends a lot more on health care than other countries, and the ACA included many experiments in ways to reduce those costs. Most of these experiments have failed. However, the growth of costs seems to have slowed—where it used to be around 10%, it is now around 5%—even as more people are getting insurance. Some of that may be the economy, but some of it is probably the ACA. That doesn’t get us any closer to paying the prices for health care that Britain enjoys, but it’s an improvement over the status quo.