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For many, working at USAA in San Antonio is the best possible outcome. It pays well above the local market rate up through middle management (apprx 30% more) and executives are very handsomely compensated (at least 2x). It has a beautiful, well-manicured campus, subsidized dining halls and child care, ample gyms, covered parking, and rarely reduces its workforce or implements layoffs. It is committed to hiring a 10% veteran workforce, was an early advocate for LGB equality, and makes extraordinary accommodations for employees with disabilities. USAA doesn't try to force older employees out, so it's a 'safe' place to retire from. It also contributes a full 8% matching to 401k plans and adds an additional 4%-8% ‘kicker’ at the end of the year, pays a ‘holiday’ bonus (addtl 2 weeks pay in Dec) and consistently pays annual bonuses. Moreover, as with most companies located in the south and southwest, few employees work more than 9-5, so it’s a relaxed lifestyle; although departments have rare, episodic fire drills work/life balance is firmly and generously tilted towards life. Companies and Staff Agencies which dabble in work-from-home schemes add to this atmosphere. USAA is locally revered and employees are deeply respected in the community. For those with binding social commitments to San Antonio or who can tolerate the uncultivated dinginess of living in south central Texas’s only metropolitan hub or its weak job market for professional spouses, USAA is by far the best gig going.Superficially, working at USAA is indeed a delight. But when sharp and honest minds work there for a few weeks or months, they notice something amiss: middle managers spend much of their time meeting with one another or trying to present to executives and have almost no supervisory relationship with their teams; and the Executive Management Group similarly spends most of their time meeting with one another or trying to present to the Executive Council and have almost no meaningful connection to their middle managers or departments. The game at USAA is to manage up, meaning individual contributors and middle managers are largely left to their own volition, creating an array of uncoordinated and often duplicative outcomes. The quantity and quality of work are therefore unimportant, and neither advancement nor compensation recognize either. Because the quality of work doesn’t matter, it’s natural to push the work/life balance towards quality of life. To outsiders or the recently employed, USAA's tolerance for leadership with obvious intellectual or characterological flaws is puzzling. Although there are many able managers and leaders at USAA, approximately half are simply dead wood who contribute little to the Association beyond the warmth of their physical and emotional presence. In some cases, they actively destroy value. Below is a sample of the corrosive types of corporate officers USAA invests special trust and confidence in:An Executive Director (promoted to AVP) who led a Price Elasticity of Demand modeling team was unable to label the Price and Quantity axes correctly and sincerely believed Price was the dependent variable. He terminated a vulnerable employee who dared to privately identify these deficiencies.An AVP responsible Market Planning and Forecasting who’d been with USAA for 5 years didn’t know Non Commissioned Officers were promoted from Enlisted ranks, believing they joined the military that way instead of earning their stripes.A VP of Finance in the Chief Financial Office didn’t understand accrual accounting and thought the budget was managed on a cash basis, sort of like a child’s lemonade stand. He also routinely ridiculed a foreign-born junior executive who had an accent and sabotaged ambitious visions to innovate new analytical frameworks.A Director (promoted to AVP) who owned the bank’s capital models and for years on the trot didn’t validate elementary information, such as total current balances or accounts, and deployed a model riddled with computational and procedural errors which misstated the bank’s modeled capital requirements for 7+ years.A Lead Analyst (promoted to Executive Director) of Marketing who selected the most profitable observation period possible to portray an otherwise mediocre product in favorable light because it was popular with the EC.A VP of Model Validation who was unfamiliar with established risk management frameworks such as the Basel Accord and misunderstood basic mathematical principles, such as the biases implicitly created by weighted averages. Rather than providing an effective quantitative challenge to proposed model forms he assigned idiosyncratic, open-ended research projects to his staff and partner organizations as though he were a professor handing out thesis topics to graduate students.A Director (promoted to Executive Director) responsible for assessing Competitiveness interviewed senior executives about their lines of business and regurgitated what they thought of their own products instead of qualitatively or quantitatively assessing what the members thought or felt and declined to simply identify how and when members bought or retained products when robust analytical tools to do so were readily available within her own group.A Director (promoted to AVP) who led a Business Case Analytics group served as a simple custodian for the business lines’ financial projections and provided no effective qualitative or quantitative challenge for their assumptions. It was questionable he knew how to structure a discounted cash flow, much less the discount rate itself.An Executive Director (promoted to AVP) responsible for Asset/Liability Management oversaw the core of his team quit in disgust and handed off his analytical responsibilities to the parent company, losing control over his ability to independently manage or price his company’s portfolio.On a personal level these individuals are very likable: most have attractive physical appearances, outgoing personalities, are from well-scrubbed, solidly white, middle class backgrounds, are good at small talk and they remember your personal details after brief encounters. They are the types of people you wish you were seated next to for a long plane flight - they meet the minimum threshold for being in outside sales. Yet they are not selling good leadership or professional management, but themselves. In an environment where the quality of work sincerely doesn’t matter ostentatious piety to the corporate myths USAA wishes to believe about itself are more valuable than knowledge, skill or ability. To wit: many successful careers are made on the basis of drinking the Kool-Aid and shouting into the echo chamber.The concentration of obsequious inefficacy is exacerbated because USAA is increasingly a place which collects castoffs from larger financial institutions who couldn’t cut it in NY, Chicago, SF, LA etc. Although executive compensation is somewhat less than what one would earn at a larger firm in a more sophisticated and cosmopolitan city, because the cost of living in San Antonio is significantly lower USAA executives live the lives of kings: they spend less than a fifth of their income on housing and services such as child care, private school and housekeeping are similarly cheap. They would therefore seriously impair their ability to consume at the same level should they attempt to return from whence they came. The good ones engineer escapes quickly, the rest get trapped in SAT where they learn it’s not about the work, but some other type of game:Couple weeks from now, you're gonna be in some district somewhere with 11 or 12 uniforms looking to you for everything. And some of them are gonna be good police. Some of them are gonna be young and stupid. A few are gonna be pieces of sh-t. But all of them will take their cue from you. You show loyalty, they learn loyalty. You show them it's about the work, it'll be about the work. You show them some other kinda game, then that's the game they'll play. I came on in the Eastern, and there was a piece of sh-t lieutenant hoping to be a captain, piece of sh-t sergeants hoping to be lieutenants. Pretty soon we had piece of sh-t patrolmen trying to figure the job for themselves. And some of what happens then is hard as hell to live down. Comes a day you're gonna have to decide whether it's about you or about the work. –Lt Cedric Daniels, The Wire, Season 1, Episode 13 “Sentencing”Executives unconsciously understand this and enjoy herding their teams through the bespoken Senn Delaney Going Above corporate training, which reinforces the theory of ‘positive intent’. The crux of the training’s argument asserts people intend to do well, which fits neatly with social theory in only the most amateur way. When people within an organization interact with outsiders, this is mostly true: they usually strive to protect the organization’s assets. But within an organization people tend to maximize their own benefit, not the organization’s. Going Above asks employees to willfully pretend executives don’t guard and keep resources and relationships for their own benefit. This is a canny intelligence test most employees fail. Most, in fact, are discouraged from seeing the forest from the trees.For reasons to do with the increasing professionalization of the US military, USAA has only a few good decades left. Legally structured as a reciprocal, it must limit its membership to active duty, retired, reserve, and prior-service military personnel, their spouses, children and grandchildren. The addressable market is waning because the US successfully waged two concurrent overseas wars in Iraq and Afghanistan without significantly increasing its military in the same way it needed to for WWII, Korea and Vietnam: 2001- 2011, DoD manpower grew by only apprx 30%. Small as this growth was, it is noteworthy in how it relied less on increased accessions than it did retaining highly trained, experienced and skilled military operators through coercion (stop-loss) or incentives (re-enlistment bonuses). The military is therefore enlisting and commissioning smaller quantities of volunteers and keeps them on active duty for longer – fewer are churning out after their initial service commitment, as occurred in the 70s–90s after Nixon ended the peacetime draft. This is especially troubling for USAA because it earns fat margins on risk-averse officers and NCOs who experience casualty and credit losses at rates well below the national average but are willing to pay average insurance and interest rates.USAA is therefore faced with two options: it must either do a better job of underwriting and pricing the non-Officer and NCO parts of its portfolio, or gradually contract until it reaches a new steady state serving a smaller quantity of highly profitable Officers and NCOs. It chooses to do neither and rather encumbers itself with a costly and ineffective Executive Management Group who’re devoted to telling the Executive Council how terrific USAA, its members and employees are, when the truth is considerably more nuanced and complicated. Countless meetings are convened before The Meeting so as to rehearse a coherent story of quality growth, durable profitability and financial strength even when few honestly measured indicators consistently point in these directions. Although USAA is growing products, members and assets outside of its core market, its per unit profitability is dwindling and it’s responded by advancing the careers of managers who tell it what it wishes to hear about itself rather than coming to grips with the new realities of its addressable market. This latter action has vastly expanded its cost structure such that executive compensation squanders its resources, a drain which adds little real value and in some cases actively destroys it.None of this is to say USAA doesn’t try to reverse the tide of its deeply counter-productive executive culture. Because its target market is ostensibly constrained USAA was never going to be more than a mid-size financial institution and its ability to attract expertise has always been compromised. Perpetually and painfully aware of its also-ran status, it routinely tries to poach ordinarily competent managers from better managed firms such as CapOne or AmEx. But their candidacy is often internally assassinated lest they make incumbents look weak and those who do accept offers tend to leverage their networks and flee after a few years, aware how harmonizing to the culture of sycophantic self-adulation is damaging. Yet USAA has many bright, engaged, and skilled employees who’re poised to lead the Association as it meets the challenges of its next century. But these individuals have hitherto been unrecognized because although honest, thorough and resourceful they refuse to play the petty political games which presently determine success. Understanding how they themselves are committed to San Antonio by social networks they can’t abandon, they gamely soldier on, discouraged but undeterred.

[Update 8/1/20 2:42 pm PT: Added new JAMA Pediatrics study (7/30/20) of age 0–5 children in Chicago having higher virus levels in their noses than older kids or adults]All you had to do was watch China in Jan 2020:China locked down a city of 10 million, ordered mask usage monitored by drones, isolated Covid people from their healthy families, used disinfectant trucks to spray outdoor areas, and used negative-pressure areas in hospitals for Covid patients…in January! Kind of obvious what China thought.Ignore what the WHO, Chinese/US CDC, and US Public Health officials say…What did China do?22 Topics: (1) Why do Public Health people say what they say? (2) Covid more infectious than flu, but less than measles and tuberculosis (3) What do I do? (4) Problems with WHO/CDC theories and policies (5) Masks (6) Portable HEPA filters (7) Goggles (8) Building design (9) Kids (10) Vaccines (11) Speculation: This might not be the first coronavirus pandemic. 1889–90 Russian Flu may have been coronavirus HCoV-OC43 (12) Ancient genomic analyses rewrite 1912–18 Spanish Flu history (13) Super-spreaders and super-emitters (14) Most people with lung damage can wear N95 masks (15) How many times can N95 masks be reused without cleaning? (16) Microwaving N95 masks (17) Cloth masks 1–93% (18) Surfaces, handwashing (19) Covid general information answer (20) “Fake news” - How is it created? (21) More info about Covid - Twitter and Quora people(1) Why do Public Health people say contradictory things (lie, distort, omit, and manipulate)?- https://www.quora.com/Do-face-masks-cause-CO2-poisoning/answer/Harold-Zwanepol/comment/152551530 (7/31/20)(2) Covid is more infectious than influenza - “short-range aerosols” may be more important than “droplets” from sneezes and coughs - but less contagious than measles and tuberculosis.~15% attack rate in households taking care of sick Covid family members (when using masks & good hygiene), not a 70–90%+ attack rate.Indoors = more riskCovid likes cold & moist surfaces. For outdoors:Cool, shady, wet = more riskHot, sunny, dry = less riskWet/moist surfaces are NOT humidity (drops Covid to the ground)High humidity = air saferHigh humidity = surfaces riskierSpeculation: Covid infects mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth) - mostly from other people’s heavy breathing (not droplets from sneezes and coughs, or doorknobs and surfaces, like with flu). Scientists are still figuring this out.Skin is not usually a problem, but if your hands bring Covid from your clothing or skin to your eyes/nose/mouth, that is a problem.Overall my thinking is:(A) I don’t want to contact Covid.(B) If I do contact Covid, I’d prefer to contact LESS Covid.(C) If I contact less Covid, I’d prefer it to be DEAD/inactive Covid.(D) Covid seems very infectious (Speculation: 10–1,000 virus copies might be enough to infect some/most people).HID50 (Human Infectious Dose 50%) for Influenza A was 1,950–3,000 virus copies (in one study). Norovirus infectious dose is estimated at 18–1,000 copies, and has 30% attack rate (but is fecal-oral).- "Six distinct 'types' of COVID-19 identified" (Kings College London, 7/17/20)- Tirumalai Kamala's answer to Have any studies verified the hypothesis that infectious dose correlates with disease severity of COVID-19? (7/23/20)- Claire Jordan's answer to Why would so many people be scared of a virus with a survival rate of over 99%? (7/17/20)(3) What do I do?I only wear a mask PART of the time. Not 100% (especially if people are 30+ ft away).Masks are like car seat belts. Uncomfortable & irritating. Improve health & safety.What you do depends on your health risk and personal decisions. It affects you, friends, family, and everyone else.Below is a copy of my comment at https://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus/Los-Angeles-COVID-data-after-Memorial-Day-Weekend-4/comment/1951975 (7/8/20)——Depends on your health risk and personal decisions.I live alone. So don’t have to worry about getting anyone else sick.My parents are in their 80s, but are 2,000+ miles away.I go to the beach most days. Wear an N95 mask when rollerblading in busy areas, but not when everyone is really far apart. When I sit on the beach for a long time, I don’t use a mask, but I try to sit at least 30–40 feet away from anyone else.I don’t believe in 6-foot “social distance”. Studies have shown coughs and sneezes easily travel 20–30+ feet. Breathing can suspend Covid aerosol for 30 min (or more) indoors.I like to stay 30–40 feet away from other people.If I’m closer than 30 feet to other people, I like to have a mask on (unless I’m moving at high speed - like on rollerblades). When driving, I don’t use a mask. I close my car windows when waiting at traffic lights if nearby people have their windows open.I do takeout and grocery shop, but outdoor dining looks too scary. Some local grocery store employees have gotten Covid (local Ralphs and local Costco).I went to one regular store in the past 6 months - Bed, Bath, and Beyond.Everyone wore masks (like in grocery stores), so I felt fine.I haven’t gone for a haircut since January. Been cutting my own hair. A tooth filling fell out in March (so I have half a tooth), but I’m not going to a dentist to fix it. Trying to keep it extra clean with dental rinses.I haven’t touched anyone in 6+ months (since Dec 2019).No partner acrobatics/gymnastics, massages, yoga, ecstatic dance, nightclubs, festivals, jacuzzi, swimming pools, weightlifting, outdoor rings/high-bar/swings, etc…I don’t use bare hands to touch any door handles or touchscreens (grocery store, gas pump, bank). May use a handkerchief, paper towel, or tissue. At the grocery store, I wipe the self-service station with a disinfectant wipe before I touch it (My local grocery store touchscreen doesn’t work well with a paper towel).I carry a 2 oz tiny bottle of hand sanitizer everywhere, which I refill from a large 16 oz bottle.Really big changes - I try not to use public bathrooms or public drinking fountains. Especially if I need to sit on a toilet for many minutes, I go home.When I get home, I take off my sandals (I don’t clean shoes), wash my hands, rinse my watch and glasses in plain water, take off my mask, put mask in a paper bag for the next 7–14 days, wash my hands again, take off all outdoor clothing, take a shower, and put on indoor clothing. So I don’t have to stress about cleaning indoor surfaces.To be environmental, I try to minimize use of hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes, soap, and paper towels. When possible I try to let virus inactivate on its own. I never clean my N95 masks. Instead I use a 6-day rotation and store them in paper lunch bags (from fast-food places).When I receive packages (or mail), I let them sit for 3–5 days (to let the virus inactivate).When I bring groceries home, I rinse all the freezer/refrigerator stuff in plain water (no soap).I let regular temperature stuff sit for 3+ days (or I rinse it).In 6 months, I’ve only used about 3 oz of hand sanitizer (Normally sells at WalMart for $1.60/quart or 32 oz. These days $5–8 for 16 oz is a pretty good price. For many months it was a sky-high $50–80+ for 16 oz.). Typically the only time I use a disinfectant wipe is one for each grocery store visit (to wipe the shopping cart & self-service touchscreen). I haven’t used up a box of wipes yet.I do seem to be using soap faster than usual. Plain water may work almost as well as soap & water, but there hasn’t yet been a hand washing study with Covid, so I use soap most of the time (unless rinsing groceries). Why is washing hands more effective than hand sanitizer for preventing COVID? (5/29/20–6/15/20)I have three health risk factors, so my mortality risk is ~600x higher than a healthy 18-yr-old (3.5% versus 0.006%).(1) I’m 53(2) High blood pressure - genetic from my mom’s side(3) Slight asthma, lungs are 70–83% of normal for my age, height, and sex.(3a) About -10% is due to living in polluted Los Angeles for 14 years.(3b) About -7 to -20% is due to a virus I caught in the 1990s. Left me with bronchospasm.My lungs were down to about 50–60%, and I used a steroid inhaler for 6–12 months, but decided I didn’t want to be on steroids all the time.- Jeff Sturm's answer to Do face masks cause CO2 poisoning? (7/25/20–7/27/20)(4) Problems I have with WHO/CDC theories and policies.- https://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus/We-Need-to-Talk-About-Ventilation/comment/2068809 (7/31/20)Here’s why the WHO/CDC droplet theory stinks.It doesn’t match how Covid is spreading in the real-world.Covid seems to spread more through “short-range aerosol” than “droplet”.(1) “The rest of the pattern of spread of COVID-19 —when it is spreading slowly, in small numbers—is also overwhelmingly through indoor transmission.”(2) “Milton told me that if those sprayed droplets were the primary means of transmission, we would expect to see more transmission outdoors, since the droplets are being ejected with some force and falling on people, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.”(3) “Even if sunlight, which can deactivate viruses, were dampening transmission outdoors, one would at least expect to see a lot more outdoor transmission than we are seeing now. Instead, epidemiologists are finding that this disease stalks us indoors.”(4) “Hitoshi Oshitani, a virology professor at Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine in Japan, told me that quarantine officers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, who followed standard precautions against droplets and close contact, nonetheless got infected anyway. This was an important clue for Japanese scientists about the importance of aerosols. “Those were professionals,” he said. For him, that meant that it was unlikely they slipped up, and more likely that the disease acted in ways they weren’t prepared for.”(5) “A recent (preprint) paper showed that health-care workers in the United Kingdom—where hospitals are older and ventilation measures are poorer—were getting sick at higher rates than those in the United States where many hospital buildings come with ventilation mitigation measures.”(6) “And in a peer-reviewed paper just published in Nature, researchers reported finding viral RNA in more than half the air samples in a hospital, including outside patients’ rooms and in the hallways. While it remains a question how infectious those particles may have been, Marr told me that it was significant that “100 percent of samples from the floor under the bed and all but one window ledge were positive for viral RNA, indicating that the virus was transported through the air and settled onto these surfaces.”——“Cowling told me that it’s better to call these “short-range aerosols,” as that communicates the nature of the threat more accurately: Most of these particles are concentrated around the infected person, but, under the right circumstances, they can accumulate and get around.”——Problems with current WHO/CDC guidance:“For example, current WHO guidelines don’t recommend masks indoors if a distance of one meter can be maintained. Similarly, the CDC makes scant reference to the distinction between indoor and outdoor transmission in its mask guidance, and recommends masks in public settings, “especially when other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain.”(1) However, an aerosol regime would suggest that distancing isn’t as protective indoors as one would hope, especially since people eating and drinking tend to be talking while unmasked.”(2) “Under an aerosol regime, we would have different rules for the indoors and the outdoors (especially since, in addition to the diluting power of air, sunlight quickly deactivates viruses.) We would mandate masks indoors regardless of distancing, but not necessarily outdoors.”“Marr told me that she wears her mask outdoors only if she’s interacting with people, if she’s in a crowd, or if she cannot maintain distance. Yet, in the United States, many locales are mandating masks indoors and outdoors under the same rules, forcing even the solitary person walking her dog to mask up. And there are places, such as Chicago, where beaches are closed because officials fear crowds, but indoor restaurants and gyms remain open with mild restrictions.”(3) “Similarly, Jimenez pointed out that, when a masked person is speaking, the least safe location might be beside them or behind them, where the aerosols can escape from the mask, though ordinarily, under a droplet regime, we would consider the risk to only be in front of them.”(4) “The importance of aerosols may even help explain why the disease is now exploding in the southern United States, where people often go into air-conditioned spaces to avoid the sweltering heat.”(5) “Some countries have already bucked the trend of ignoring short-range aerosols. Oshitani told me that in Japan, researchers took short-range aerosol transmission seriously from the start, and focused on the few transmission events that spread the disease to large numbers of people at once.Cowling, of Hong Kong University, told me the same thing:He considers short-range aerosols and super-spreader events to be key to the spread of COVID-19. Japan was expected to fail by many, as it implemented an unconventional response, bucking WHO guidelines, eschewing widespread testing, and forcing few formal lockdowns.However, Japan masked up early, focused on super-spreader events (a strategy it calls “cluster busting”), and, crucially, trained its public to focus on avoiding the three C’s—closed spaces, crowded places, and close conversations.In other words, exactly the places where airborne transmission and aerosols could pose a risk. The Japanese were advised not to talk on the subway, where windows were kept open.Oshitani said they also developed guidelines that included the importance of ventilation in many different settings, such as bars, restaurants, and gyms.Six months later, despite having some of the earliest outbreaks, ultradense cities, and one of the oldest populations in the world, Japan has had about 1,000 COVID-19 deaths total—which is how many the United States often has in a single day. Hong Kong, a similarly dense and subway-dependent city, has had only 24 deaths.”——Note: Article is WRONG about portable HEPA filter pricing (“sell for as little as a few hundred dollars”)(1) DIY HEPA filters for $35–40.(2) Many commercial HEPA filter machines under $100.“When windows cannot be opened, classrooms could run portable HEPA filters, which are capable of trapping viruses this small, and which sell for as little as a few hundred dollars.”“Jimenez also wondered why the National Guard hadn’t been deployed to set up tent schools (not sealed, but letting air in like an outdoor wedding canopy) around the country, and why the U.S. hadn’t set up the mass production of HEPA filters for every classroom and essential indoor space. Instead, one air-quality expert reported, teachers who wanted to buy portable HEPA filters were being told that they weren’t allowed to, because the CDC wasn’t recommending them.” -> IMO the US CDC is pretty dumb.——Personally, I haven’t been following stupid WHO/CDC guidelines.This is what I’ve been doing since Jan 2020.(1) I run a Rabbit Air HEPA filter at home.(2) In Jan 2020, just after Wuhan lockdown, I bought 20 N95 masks on Amazon (many months before they were restricted).(3) I’ve assumed that Covid is spread by breathing, and by asymptomatic people.(4) I try to have an mask on when I am within 30 ft of anyone outdoors. I don’t believe in the lame “6 feet” rule. Covid spreads 30–50+ ft indoors…and maybe further outdoors. Better safe, than sorry.(5) Indoors (in any building which is not my home), I always have an N95 mask on. Even when no one is around. There might be Covid floating in the air. In the elevators and hallways. Especially in the bathrooms.(6) I try very hard not to use any public bathrooms.(7) I try to stay away from all indoor places unless absolutely necessary (grocery store, takeout restaurant, bank).(8) Outdoors, I try to stay away from any area which looks like it might have a high concentration of virus.(9) For doorknobs and surfaces (ATMs, Grocery store touchscreens, Gas pumps), I try to use a handkerchief or paper towel. If not, I wipe surface with hand sanitizer or disinfectant wipe before using. Or I immediately afterwards clean my hands with hand sanitizer.(10) When returning home, I wash hands, then take off all outdoor clothes & mask, take a shower, and switch into indoor clothes … to minimize chance of any virus on my clothes, hair, or skin…contacting anything else inside where I live. So I can relax about cleaning my home.I’m much more careful than the WHO/CDC.Used to work in a virus lab (Harvard Medical School, 1980s).I don’t trust WHO/CDC politics. When in doubt, I assume the virus is stronger and transmits better…until good evidence shows me that I can let my guard down in well-studied areas.(1) outdoors seems safer(2) indoors with lighter breathing can be safer - yoga/pilates classes ok, but high-energy dance/aerobics is not(3) kids don’t seem to spark big outbreaks (like with flu) - instead, it’s mostly household spread & super-spreader events (possibly with super-emitters)(4) surfaces (doorknobs) don’t seem as important as with flu- Shern Ren Tee's share of "We Need to Talk About Ventilation" (7/30/20)- "Why the COVID-19 Debate Between Aerosols and Droplets Matters Less Than You Think" (Slate Magazine, 7/20/20)(5) An N95 mask (unvalved 3M N95 8210 $0.65 normal price, currently restricted in US to health professionals and front-line workers) will NOT help if you touch the contaminated outside of the mask & then touch your eyes. If you touch the outside of a mask, use hand sanitizer or soap or even vigorous washing with plain water (if you don’t have either).Do not get N95 masks wet (with water or alcohol) or they can drop to 50–65% with one cleaning. N95 masks are made from electrostatic non-woven polypropylene fiber - the charged fabric helps attract small Covid particles.N95 masks can be used 20+ times without cleaning (store them in paper bags for 10–14 days), and disinfected in microwave ovens with a container of water (Harvard Medical School, 6/24/20). Warning: Steam burns.I’ve been rotating six N95 masks since the beginning of Covid, and I haven’t disinfected any of them.If you don’t have access to N95/KN95/FFP2/FFP3 masks, “ASTM level 3, BFE 95%, MERV 13” masks (better than standard surgical masks), or surgical masks (60–80%, $0.02/each made in China, $0.10/each made in US)…I just ordered 10 KN95 masks from “Bona Fide Masks” for $22.90 (free shipping, $2.90/mask, $0.82/mask in large quantities - maybe less for wholesale orders). They arrived from NY to CA in 2-3 days. I will be testing them this weekend. Fold flat unlike my 3M N95 8210Plus, but worried the seal isn’t as good, and the material is much thinner (fewer fibers).Homemade cloth masks can be 1–93% effective. Blue shop towels (polyester hydro knit) placed between outer and inner layers of a cloth mask have been measured at 93%, and are very breathable.- Bhavin Vadodariya's answer to What causes someone to become a carrier of an infectious disease (eg, Typhoid Mary) rather than getting infected themselves? (5/20/17)(6) Portable HEPA filters for home/business are available under $100.DIY: HEPA filter & prefilter $15–20. Box fan $20. Total = $35–40.As with N95 masks, do not wash or vacuum HEPA filters. Washable/vacuumable pre-filters keep the HEPA filter working longer.I have two Rabbit Air HEPA Filters ($600).- What is the best air purifier on the market today? (4/9/19)- Thomas Talhelm's answer to What is a life hack that you think everybody should know? (6/29/19)(7) Around very sick Covid people, goggles and/or face shields can help.For advanced protection: N97 and N100/P100 masks, full-face respirators, full body suits with booties for shoes, hazmat suits with self-contained oxygen. Some doctors sleep in local hotels, so they don’t come home and infect their spouse, kids, and other family members.- Robert Devor's answer to If I have my mask on and I walk by someone who does not have a mask on, and that person sneezes and I just happen to walk by as they sneeze, can the droplets get into my eyes and cause Covid-19? (7/25/20)(8) Keeping buildings safer.Air Exchange Rate:Healthcare environments have long practiced high air change rates, finding the optimal rate in critical areas such as operating rooms to be greater than 20 air changes per hour.Temporarily disable demand control ventilation and open outdoor air dampers to 100% when system capacities can maintain appropriate temperature and humidity controlsHumidity Control:Relative humidity also has a major effect on the ability of pathogens to spread in the built environment. A recent study in a nursery school found that when relative humidity was maintained above 40%, there were fewer infectious droplets in the air and fewer children missed school.While ASHRAE 62.1 simply recommends maintaining a relative humidity below 65% to reduce mold growth, studies have found that maintaining a relative humidity between 40-60% may reduce the transmission of airborne pathogens in the form of a “dry aerosol” – which occurs when humidity levels drop below 40%.Additionally, dehydrated droplets remain floating longer, which increases the opportunity for the spread of pathogenic aerosols.Pressurization of Spaces from Clean to Less Clean:Healthcare facilities and research laboratories are routinely designed to pressurize spaces such that airflow pathways are directed from clean to less clean spaces in order to protect occupants and research.To better incorporate strategic pressurization in workplaces to induce airflow that will lead to improved air quality, underfloor air displacement (UFAD) systems should be considered.These systems introduce clean supply air at the floor and accept return air at the ceiling, resulting in a once through pathway of airflow across the breathing zone of occupants before the air is returned to the central filtration system or exhausted directly out of the building.Air Filtration:ASHRAE 62.1, Ventilation for Acceptable Indoor Air Quality, requires that filters in HVAC systems meet a minimum rating of MERV 6.However, LEED, WELL, and other green building rating systems require that HVAC systems use filters that meet at least a MERV 13 rating.HEPA filters would fall into a MERV rating between 17-20.This product ionizes and polarizes particles between 0.3-1 micron in size.As a result, when particles collide, they remain joined and form a larger particle that can be captured in the physical filter media and pathogens are inactivated by the strong electric field.Any particles that are not captured in the physical filter are transported into the space being served. The polarity of these particles attracts other particles in the space, creating larger aerosols that do not remain floating as long, thus reducing the number of airborne pathogens that occupants may be exposed to.- "Engineering healthy workplaces – considerations in response to Covid-19 - Buro Happold" (Buro Happold, 5/1/20)(9) Keeping kids safer.This is a repost of a comment I wrote as part of a discussion at https://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-State/comment/2000773 (7/17/20)Note: Personally… I WOULD NOT REOPEN schools with teachers/staff/cleaning-people over age 34 (or with any risk factors - overweight, smoker, asthma, diabetes, etc..)(a) age 25, 10 pounds overweight -> NIX(b) age 30, smoker of tobacco or marijuana -> NopeA healthy 18-yr-old catching Covid has ~0.006% mortality risk (based on Imperial College, London, analysis in March 2020).A 21–yr-old with asthma has a ~0.9% mortality risk (according to a Cleveland Clinic calculator, based on local Ohio data). 150x higher than a healthy 18-yr-old.Speculative Idea: How about having teenagers teach kids, and under-35s teaching teenagers?Speculative Idea: Over-34s can teach via Zoom…with under-35s as live assistants (Under-35s need jobs).I don’t like the idea of ADULTS in indoor buildings working together unless(1) they have their own offices (no cubicles)(2) ventilation system has HEPA or better (IQ Air HyperHEPA) filtersNOT with US Covid at such high levels.When positivity rates go below 0.5% - MAYBE. WHO does not recommend re-opening countries until positivity goes below 5%. I am 10x more conservative than the WHO.Where I live, Los Angeles positivity hit 19.2% a week ago.HEALTH OPINION: Don’t open schools until positivity is below 0.5%.FINANCIAL: Parents need babysitting & childcare in order to work & survive.- "Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State" (7/4/20)- "Study finds higher viral load in young children, raising questions about how likely they are to transmit the coronavirus" (CNN, 7/30/20)- "When Playtime and Covid Collide" (New York Times, 7/20/20)- "Rise of pandemic pods and 'Zutors': parents turn to private schooling amid coronavirus" (Guardian, 7/23/20)- "Opinion | The Latest in School Segregation: Private Pandemic ‘Pods’" (New York Times, 7/21/20)(10) What about vaccines?I’m not a vaxxer or an anti-vaxxer. This is a decision each person needs to make (unless they are forced to take a vaccine by the government or school officials). Vaccines do KILL people (or give them life-long health damage).Balance the risk of Covid (for you and your friends/community/city/country) with vaccine risk.- "A Vaccine Reality Check" (Atlantic, 7/24/20)- Anthony Zarrella's answer to If vaccines are safe, then why did the federal government exempt vaccine manufacturers from vaccine liability while at the same time setting up a federally funded vaccine injury compensation fund? (7/25/20)Two sisters infected with smallpox on the same day from the same source. Upper figure. Girl aged 21 years, vaccinated in infancy. Lower figure. Girl aged 15 years, unvaccinated.A series of photographs by Dr. Allen Warner of the Isolation Hospital at Leicester in the UK, published in the Atlas of Clinical Medicine, Surgery, and Pathology, 1901.-Vaccinated vs. UnvaccinatedShows two boys, both aged 13 years. The one on the right was vaccinated in infancy, the other was not vaccinated. They were both infected from the same source on the same day. Note that while the one on the left is in the fully pustular stage, the one on the right has had only two spots, which have aborted and have already scabbed.Here is one magnificent demonstration of the fact that vaccination works, but only if you have it. If you do not have it, it is not going to work. The lad on the left and the lad on the right were members of the same class at school, and they met the same index case who was brewing up smallpox on the same day. The lad on the right, obviously, had been vaccinated. The lad on the left, his parents, who had been whipped up by the local MP, had refused to have their son vaccinated, with obvious consequences.A series of photographs by Dr. Allen Warner of the Isolation Hospital at Leicester in the UK, published in the Atlas of Clinical Medicine, Surgery, and Pathology, 1901.- Trausti Thor Johannsson's answer to Was there a strong resistance to the polio vaccine? (7/19/20–7/29/20)Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) is a phenomenon where viral infection of cells is aided by antibodies that bind the virus. This means that instead of helping the immune system fight off and destroy the virus, antibodies actually help the virus infect cells.ADE is not new, the phenomenon itself was referenced as early as (earliest I could find) 1962, although not under the same name [1]. Other publications have referenced the same phenomenon as “original antigenic sin” or “trojan horsing”…other coronaviruses such as feline infective peritonitis virus (FIPV, in the same family as SARS-CoV-2) also demonstrate that the same antibodies that neutralize the virus can also drive ADE at low concentrations.Although we are uncertain if ADE will be a factor in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine production, there is light evidence that suggests ADE may be a factor.Certain symptoms such as reduced T and B cell count in those infected with both COVID-19 and SARS, suggest that these cells may be infected and destroyed by SARS-CoV-2.It could be that ADE is the mechanism by which SARS-CoV-2 infects immune cells.Keep in mind, there is not enough evidence to show that SARS-CoV-2 immunopathy (infection of the immune system) is consistent with greater severity of disease. And if it works like it does in MERS, it may be that the production of antibodies protects vaccinated individuals from pneumonia and infection of cells the express ACE2, but makes them susceptible to mild immunopathy.- Jason Dong's answer to What is Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE)? Why is it a concern for vaccine development? Does the evidence point for or against ADE for any COVID-19 vaccines currently in development? (8/1/20)(11) Speculation: This might not be the first coronavirus pandemic.After SARS in 2003, Leen Vijgen and seven other researchers in 2005 advanced a speculative theory that the 1889–90 Russian Flu (big pandemic before the 1912–18 Spanish Flu) was actually coronavirus HCoV-OC43 (the most virulent of the four “common cold” coronaviruses today).Conventional Thinking (1999): 1889–90 Russian Flu was H3N8 (using “seroarchaeology”).Note: We don’t have any influenza virus samples before 1918, so we can’t genetically prove that anything before 1918 was influenza (rather than a coronavirus). In past millennia, humans may have had many coronavirus pandemics, but simply called them “flus”.Before the advent of flu vaccines in 1936, it didn’t matter if a virus was influenza or coronavirus. But it matters today because after 84 years, scientists have gotten pretty good at making “flu vaccines”, but we’ve never made a vaccine for the “common cold” before.2020 Covid is the bigger, tougher brother of “common colds”Will it evolve stronger or weaker?2020 Covid might end up staying with us for decades/centuries as a 5th “common cold” coronavirus.- "Complete Genomic Sequence of Human Coronavirus OC43: Molecular Clock Analysis Suggests a Relatively Recent Zoonotic Coronavirus Transmission Event” (2005)(12) Advances in “ancient DNA/RNA” analysis are rewriting history books.Here’s the latest information I’ve been able to find about the 1912–18 Spanish Flu.(A) Some scientists no longer think that the strong Oct 1918 wave which killed young adults was a mutation of the earlier Jan 1918 virus. Instead, it seems that the stronger version co-existed with the weaker version in 1915–17 (possibly 1912–17).1912–18 Spanish Flu genetic and archaeoviral theories.(B) Appearance in mammalian hosts 1882–1913 (centered around Jan 1901 or Aug 1905, based on 2 models with different genetic substitution rates)(C) Ancestor virus diverged around March 1913 - October 1915 to classical swine and human H1N1 influenza lineages. Other studies suggest 1912–13 host split.(D) US influenza outbreaks in 1915 may have been the virulent “Spanish Flu”.(E) Other herald waves 1915–17.Dos Reis (2009) and Gorman (1990) dated the host shift to 1912-15 (when the ancestor virus split into Swine and Human H1N1 strains).We don’t have 100% genetic confirmation yet of 1912–17 origins, because we have discovered virus samples from the Oct 1918 wave (Alaskan permafrost, 2007), but we haven't recovered any archaeoviral samples yet from the earlier Jan 1918 wave (or anything previous to 1918, such as the 1915–17 herald waves or the 1889–90 Russian flu).- "origins of the great pandemic" (1/21/19)In a mass grave in a remote Inuit village near the town of Brevig Mission, a large Inuit woman lay buried under more than six feet of ice and dirt for more than 75 years. The permafrost plus the woman's ample fat stores kept the virus in her lungs so well preserved that when a team of scientists exhumed her body in the late 1990s, they could recover enough viral RNA to sequence the 1918 strain in its entirety.- Scientists Describe How 1918 Influenza Virus Sample Was Exhumed In Alaska (Science Daily, 7/4/07)(13) Super-spreading events & Super-emitters- Tirumalai Kamala's answer to Is super-spreading caused more by risky events or highly contagious individual people? What practical difference does this make? (7/31/20)- "Most People With Coronavirus Won’t Spread It. Why Do a Few Infect Many?"(New York Times, 6/29/20)Covid in real-life…doesn’t appear to behave like simple computer models of R.(1) If R was such a big deal, spread should be fastest when most people are uninfected and Covid is new.(2) Instead Covid seems to die out (like genetic studies in Washington & NYC have shown)…until the first big super-spreader events 1–2 months later. This may have happened in China also, where tiny spreads were mostly un-noticed in Aug-Nov 2019, until the Hua’nan Seafood Market outbreak in Dec.So how might we model this?(A) Dispersion factor (k), which models how much the disease clusters(B) Explicitly model super-emitters and super-spreader events.(C) Speculation: Covid may require super-emitters ("burst size" of infected cells releasing 5,000-50,000 virus copies, rather than 40-1,000 copies) being involved in superspreader events.- The media keeps mentioning that R0 of COVID-19 I’m in the range of 2 to 3 (7/31/20)(14) VAST majority of lung damage people (e.g. asthma) can wear N95 masks. I rollerblade at the beach daily with an N95 mask (up to 3 hrs with mask), and I have 17-30% lung damage from a virus in the 1990s.Warning: Consult pulmonologist if you may be an exception. A very, very small minority of people (e.g. pre-existing hypercapnia in severe COPD cases, "CO2 retainers") actually do have problems with CO2.Those people should get medical certificates showing they are exempt from masks. AND THEY PROBABLY SHOULDN’T BE AROUND POSSIBLE COVID PEOPLE if their lungs are bad enough to not wear a mask. If they catch Covid, it’s could be severe/critical/fatal.Forget masks. If you are severe enough that you can’t wear a mask, Covid may kick your b***. You should be home, or 30 ft away from people, and NOT indoors with possibly sick people. Have someone buy your groceries for you.——Some asthma people say “I can’t wear a mask”. Some doctors give a mistaken impression that all COPD and asthma people have mask issues.Construction workers (heavy exercise) and painters wear N95 masks. Firefighters have their own types of masks.“There is no risk of hypercapnia (CO2 retention) in healthy adults who use face coverings, including medical and cloth face masks, as well as N95s,” Dr. Robert Glatter, an emergency physician at Lenox Hill Hospital, New York, told Healthline. “Carbon dioxide molecules freely diffuse through the masks, allowing normal gas exchange while breathing.”“Rebreathing tiny amounts of CO2 from wearing either properly fitted N95 respirators or more loosely fitted cloth or surgical masks is of no concern for the vast, vast majority of people,” said Darrell Spurlock Jr., PhD, RN, the director of the Leadership Center for Nursing Education Research at Widener University and a professor in Widener’s PhD in Nursing program.According to Spurlock, even workers, including medical providers, wearing surgical or cloth masks for a whole shift should have no concerns about retaining CO2 and shouldn’t worry about negative effects from wearing a mask.“The ‘dose’ of CO2 we might rebreathe while masking is quickly and easily eliminated by both the respiratory and metabolic systems in the body,” he said. “I worry a thousand times more about viral transmission than any negative effects arising from mask wearing per CDC guidelines.”- "No, Face Masks Can’t Cause CO2 Poisoning" (Healthline, 6/23/20)—-Many California friends already owned N95 masks & home HEPA filters before Covid, due to the record-breaking smoky fires in Northern & Southern California.This is Galen Rupp, with seasonal allergies and asthma, a long-distance runner who racked up gold medal finishes in the 10,000 meter (10K) runs as a member of the U.S. national track and field team - wearing a mask for allergies in 2011.Masks don’t stop oxygen from getting in, nor carbon dioxide from getting out.Below is a microscopic view of the mask material. On the left is material from an N95 medical mask, on the right a non-medical mask. Do you see any CO2 molecules clogging up the mesh? No, because the molecules are vastly smaller than the openings in the mesh.CO2 is probably about 0.4-0.5 nm in diameter (0.232 nm is an estimated distance based on center-to-center distance of the two oxygen atoms, and a typical C=O bond length of 0.116 nm, but will vary based on temperature and environment).Definitely smaller than Covid at ~125 nm (about 400-1,200 atoms in diameter).About 250-300x smaller diameter, and 10,000,000–40,000,000x smaller volume.- Harold Zwanepol's answer to Do face masks cause CO2 poisoning? (7/25/20–7/27/20)(15) How many times can N95 masks be reused?- Thomas Talhelm's answer to How many times can an N95 mask be used before it becomes ineffective against the COVID-19? (5/20/20)(16) Microwaving N95 masks can work if you use a bowl of water(WARNING: Steam burns)- "Microwave-Generated Steam Decontamination of N95 Respirators Utilizing Universally Accessible Materials" (Harvard Medical School & Beth Isreal Deaconess Medical Center, funded by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH), American Society for Microbiology, 6/24/20)No sparks from what the article said. There’s water in the microwave to absorb radiation. Aluminum foil can be used to wrap chicken legs.Funny trivia: Grapes are NOT good for microwaves.- Why sparks fly when you microwave grapes (Science, 2/18/19)Scientists have found 140°F for 30 min is enough to kill/inactivate most Covid.If you are careful, you can use a regular oven. At 175°F the mask may melt.- PSA: You Can Use An Instant Pot To Clean And Reuse N95 Masks (BuzzFeed, 7/21/20)- https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/moist_decon_conops_merged_v6_2020_06_22.pdf (Department of Health Services, CDC, 6/22/20)(17) Cloth masks can vary from 1–93%. Three other articles with real-world testing numbers.(A) Homemade mask materials (1–93%).(B) N95 (96%) and Surgical masks (60–80%, 75%, 77%)Inserting two blue shop towels into an ordinary cotton mask brought filtration up to 93% of particles.Warning: There are many fake and low-quality China KN95 masks which only block 1–20% or 20–40%.(A) Thomas Talhelm analyzed 30 materials for homemade masks.- Thomas Talhelm's answer to How can you get a face mask quickly to protect against the Covid-19? (5/16/20)(B) "The two brands they tested were ToolBox's shop towel and ZEP's industrial blue towel. Interestingly, Scott's pro shop towels, which are also made with a hydro knit fabric, didn't work as well, Schempf said.”- "Using blue shop towels in homemade face masks can filter particles 2x to 3x better than cotton" (Business Insider, 4/2/20)(C)- "What’s the Best Material for a Mask?" (New York Times, 4/3/20)(D)- "Medical Workers Should Use Respirator Masks, Not Surgical Masks" (New York Times, 6/1/20)BTN (Better Than Nothing) surgical type face masks are made by volunteers in our community to provide limited protection from COVID-19 transmission. They are not intended to be equivalent to N-95 or any other mass-produced face mask.BTN masks are different from cotton masks because they incorporate a layer of filter fabric rated with a tightness of weave MERV-13 or higher which can catch particles as small as .3 microns.- "How to Make a washable Mask w/ filter pocket" (Serenity Smith Forchion, Google Doc, 4/5/20)(18) Covid, surfaces, handwashing- Sean Eddy's answer to How fast does COVID-19 grow once it is on a surface? Not the infection rate. For example, if the virus is transferred to a countertop, how much would it grow/spread on its own? (7/10/20)Covid rapidly inactivates (dies). Covid likes cold & moist (e.g. near a refrigerated section in an outdoor/farmer’s market), so your risk depends on the weather in your area (ground and trees).Cool, shady, wet = more riskHot, sunny, dry = less riskMore Covid in your community = more riskSunlight inactivates (kills) it rapidly.In a few studies, 90–95% inactivates (dies) within 20–40 minutes.…not sure how strong the sunlight was in those studies.Speculation: Probably similar to tanning. The more your skin would tan, the more Covid is inactivated (killed).Note: Wet/moist is NOT the same as humidity. Moist/wet refers to surfaces (like trees & grass). Covid will stay in the air longer when the air is dry. Humidity will make it fall to surfaces faster.High humidity = air is saferHigh humidity = surfaces are riskier- Can coronavirus survive on the ground and the trees outside in the open and can you catch it from there? (7/12/20–7/29/20)- Why is washing hands more effective than hand sanitizer for preventing COVID? (5/29/20–6/15/20)- Is handwashing more effective against viruses or bacteria? (5/25/20–5/30/20)- I ordered a package from China before the outbreak is this package safe for me to open? (3/15/20–3/25/20)- Could you present any cogent studies of COVID-19 infection resulting directly from surface contamination? (7/20/20–7/24/20)- How long does SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) last on surfaces? (3/12/20–3/25/20)- When an expert states that the minimum infectious dose of the coronavirus is N particles, is that a real threshold for infection or a statement about the probability of infection? (7/19/20–7/29/20)(19) Ancient answer about Covid. Almost nothing has changed since Jan-Feb 2020.All you had to do was watch China in Jan 2020:China locked down a city of 10 million, ordered mask usage monitored by drones, isolated Covid people from their healthy families, used disinfectant trucks to spray outdoor areas, and used negative-pressure areas in hospitals for Covid patients…in January! Kind of obvious what China thought.Ignore what the WHO, Chinese/US CDC, and US Public Health officials say…What did China do?- How serious is the 2019–20 Coronavirus? (1/27/20–4/6/20)(20) “Fake news” - How is it created?7 Questions (Easy version)Questions to ask when hearing a “news” story. Is it “fake news”?(1) Did they actually study real people or is this an opinion piece?(2) Is there a link to real information? e.g. We studied 30 different materials for homemade masks (1–93% effective).(3) How many people did they study? 3 or 10,000? One recent 7/15/20 CDC report on age 0–9 kids being less infectious than adults…studied 59,073 people. A BIG study I’ve heard touted by Dr. Anthony Fauci on national TV. Or was it really BIG?They studied 29 age 0–9 kids. 29 kids. 29 kids.We want to reopen US schools based on studying 29 kids???I think we need more studies to see if this “less infectious” is real.We monitored 59,073 contacts of 5,706 COVID-19 index patients…- "Contact Tracing during Coronavirus Disease Outbreak, South Korea, 2020" (CDC, 7/15/20)(4) How were the people selected? e.g. Did they leave anyone out (possibly on purpose)? Are there MNAR (Missing not at Random) people?(5) If they studied 10,000 people on a drug, did any people LEAVE the study (due to bad side-effects, or dying)?(6) Do totals on all tables add up to 10,000? Or are people missing?(7) Read the fine print on graphs and tables. Do all categories add up to 100%? It’s very common to distort data by leaving INCONVENIENT data out.Doesn’t require a PhD in statistics. Don’t have to be good at math.Use a smartphone calculator (or Google) - Do categories add up to 100%?Don’t fall for statistics “snow jobs”. Keep calm and ask 7 simple questions.If you ask 7 simple questions, you will do better than most “SMART” people.Non-statistical “fake news” detection methods:(1) Emotion - Click-bait pushes your buttons and triggers your issues.(2) Reverse image search - TinEye, Google Image Search.(3) Verify - When/where did info FIRST arrive on internet (might be secondary source, who was primary non-internet source). Are there multiple internet sources reporting on the same real-world event (or primary source)? Or has everyone based their reporting from one internet source?(4) I don't use "credibility". Test everything. Even Harvard has ejected professors for falsifying data in published peer-reviewed papers. Peer-reviewers have biases.(5) Bias - Identify visible and hidden (unconscious or deliberate) agendas.XKCD comic on “Cancer causes cell phones”-Cell Phones (XKCD)Growing up in the US during the 1960s-70s, we learned about “fake advertising” methods from the 1950s in our English classes. Teachers had 7 popular phrases/slogans to help us remember how to not to be swayed by advertising manipulation from the 1950s “consumption economy”. We also learned about primary sources and secondary sources.- “Fake news” - How is it created? (7/29/20)- James Vorster's answer to How do you spot fake news online? (7/20/20)(21) Other resources for Covid - Twitter and Quora people.- What are some Twitter accounts worth following if you are interested in learning about COVID-19? (7/26/20–7/27/20)

If you're asking, "What was life like during the '70s," I can answer that. The '70s ended when I turned 10, so I'll answer from that perspective.My mom and I lived in a run-down Victorian 3-bedroom house on an acre of land, in a VA suburb of Washington, D.C. This particular house was an outlier for that area. She had a used muscle car, though she didn't drive it like one. As with most cars of the day, once it got past a certain age, its carburated engine got less reliable. There were many times I remember she struggled to start the darn thing, but she kept it going into the early 1980s. A new fangled thing with feminism at the time was women working on their own cars. She understood the basics of how an engine worked, and she was able to maintain it in some aspects herself, though she didn’t keep up a regular maintenance schedule, hence some of the car trouble.I have vague memories of the music that was played in the house. Early in my childhood my mom used to play music by The Carpenters. "Close To You" will always have a special place in my heart because of that. Later on, when she met her boyfriend, they played a lot of the Moody Blues, Cat Stevens, Bread, and The Beatles. I also used to listen to some 45-singles that she kept from the '60s, though I can't remember who most of them were. Here’s a sample.I had a few children’s records. A couple I remember fairly well were soundtracks from TV shows that I didn’t see, “Kid Power,” and “Free To Be You And Me.” I used to listen to them quite a bit. Reflecting back on them, the messages were emblematic of the beliefs with which I was raised.“Free To Be…You And Me”We could get AM radio in the house, and in the car. Here’s a sample of the music I remember from that.EducationMy mom had me in private schools up until I was about 9 years old. After that, I was in public school. I have spotty memories of what the private school environment was like. I remember having penmanship lessons, early practice in writing (without worrying about spelling), basics of arithmetic, becoming educated about the metric system, and lessons in basic finance (earning money, depositing to, and withdrawing from a bank, and spending it), listening to readings of fairy tales, and taking art classes.My mom taught me how to read when I was about 4 or 5. She was trained as a Montessori teacher, and she knew about phonics, which she taught me. She and her boyfriend used to take me on long road trips across the country, and she got the bright idea to introduce me to reading by having me try to read road signs along the way. She started by sounding out what an upcoming sign said, so I'd recognize the spelling with the sounds. Then at another sign I'd say out loud what I thought it said, and she'd correct me if I got a part wrong. I got lots of practice. Once I got the hang of it, she got me going on children's books from the library. The most advanced book I remember trying to read about the time I got into school was "Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland," by Lewis Carroll. I don’t remember getting all the way through it, but I made some progress.TV and moviesWe had one black & white tube TV set in the house. I learned years later there were such things as TVs with remotes at the time, but I didn't see one until I got out of college. To turn it on, or change the channel, you had to walk up to it, and turn a dial. There was an antenna on it, which sometimes had to be adjusted to pick up a signal.My favorite regular TV viewing was a police drama called “Adam 12,” a science fiction series, “Space Academy,” and a show about the mysterious and speculative, “In Search of…,” with host Leonard Nimoy.It seemed like culturally there was always room made for speculation. I remember seeing a bunch of shows on the Bermuda Triangle, about all of the disappearances in it, and people who saw strange things in the region. UFOs was a big topic on these TV shows, and in books and magazines.A movie came out in the late ’70s filled with doom and gloom, called, “The Late Great Planet Earth,” with a picture of Earth from space on a movie poster, modified to make it look like it was on fire! I don’t remember if I went in to see it, but looking back, it seems like the main theme was a theory that we were suffering under God’s judgment, and maybe we were living through the “end times.”Of course, there was educational programming on PBS, like “Sesame Street,” and other programs, like “The Electric Company,” and a bilingual Spanish/English program, called “Villa Alegre” (Happy Village). The Electric Company had the best segments on word parts, which helped me learn how to spell.I learned from a friend in the neighborhood that it was possible to play a recorded TV show off of tape. His dad had a large Sony VCR, the first I'd ever seen. He was pretty wealthy, so I assumed that this technology was expensive. I went over to this friend's house to watch TV in color sometimes. That was a treat, since I could watch my favorite cartoons in color, which were “Speed Racer,” “Underdog,” “Battle of the Planets,” “Fantastic Voyage,” and “Jonny Quest.”There were 3 movies I saw that blew me away: "Star Wars," "Superman," and "Close Encounters of the Third Kind." Oddly, I didn't see Star Wars when it first came out. I had heard about it. I didn't finally see it until about a year or so later, when my mom and her boyfriend took me on a trip to Canada. I was playing "X-Wings vs. Tie Fighters" with myself after we left the theater! I could not get over how exciting the movie was!Playtime and hobbiesI played outside some with friends, but probably not as much as most kids at the time. I enjoyed watching TV, reading a book, playing with Legos, or trying to build something with an Erector set, or Tinker Toys that my mom had gotten me. Someone eventually gave me a Mechano set, but that was too much for me.We used to make regular trips to a local hobby store, and a local thrift shop to find new things for me to play with. It felt like treasure hunting. I got many of my toys second hand. One of them was a game that I was rather fascinated with, called "Bing Bang Boing." It was one that we picked up from the thrift shop. As with some of these toys, they were a bit broken, or had missing pieces. I tried to make the best of them as I could. For "Bing Bang Boing," I kept trying to find the point of the thing, but it remained a mystery to me. You can find videos online, though, showing how it was supposed to work.I realize now I had a lot of the pieces (which didn't completely work), but what was missing was the rubber tops for the little "drums" the ball bearings could bounce off of. Still, it was interesting to try to get as much of it to work as I could.My mom's boyfriend interested me in science. He demonstrated to me how sunlight reaches our planet and Moon by setting up a lamp in a room, and having me take one ball, and then two balls, around it, to see how it would light up one side of each ball, and not the other, and how the Moon's orbit around our planet affected how it appeared. He also showed me how to see how an eclipse works, using this model. He showed me how to use my Erector set to build a basic flashlight with C-size batteries, to show how an electric circuit worked. As a secondary, unexpected lesson, I learned how an electric heating coil worked (ouch!), since the gauge of wire we used was not high enough. And he showed me how to build an electromagnet using a dry cell battery, some wire, and a nail. All fascinating stuff!Another thing I tried my hand at was chemistry. We got a chemistry set at the thrift shop. I picked up a few chemistry books at the library, and tried a few basic experiments. All I ended up doing with it was mixing chemicals in a few different fluids to see how they changed color.I had board games, and sometimes my mom and her boyfriend would play them with me, or some of my friends would come over, and we'd play that.I was conscious of computers existing, because I used to see them in TV shows. They covered a wall on one side of a room, and it looked like only skilled technicians were allowed to work with them. I usually didn't see anybody sitting at a keyboard and looking at a video screen to use one. Instead, they'd get a printout, or just look at blinking lights on a panel. Science fiction shows might show a video display from a computer occasionally, but that was rare. We didn't have a computer in the house. I didn't know it was possible to have one. Given our finances, we couldn't have afforded one, anyway.Living near D.C., my mom frequently took me to the Air & Space Museum, once I got old enough to understand a bit of what was on display. The most recent addition was the Command capsule and lunar lander from the Apollo missions, which had ended several years earlier. I got to see my first footage of the astronauts walking on the Moon. It didn't seem that dramatic. Growing up as a child you "expect" just about everything as it is. It was part of my world, and I didn't know it to be any other way. The space program was a big part of my world. I can’t put it here, but there’s a great intro. to a so-so movie called “A Night in Heaven” that illustrates the feeling of what this was like really well, even though it was set in the 1980s.The museum had a newly installed IMAX theater. It played only one movie for a few years, called "To Fly." I saw it several times. It was an interesting presentation, talking about how flight had given humanity "a new eye" with which to see the world. It was inspirational. It was one of those flights of fancy that gave me the idea that technological progress would lead to greater exploration, particularly of space. It seemed like an endless frontier, and that maybe we would one day travel among the planets, or perhaps beyond our solar system. I saw many other presentations like this into the 1980s that had me thinking that's really what we would do as a civilization in the future.This doesn't do it justice, but here's a small sample.As I remember, the Smithsonian offered short courses in various things that kids my age could learn from. One course was in photography. The teacher had us build our own pinhole cameras. We cut a hole in a box, taped a strip of paper over the hole, and poked the paper with a pin. We then taped a dark strip on the outside that would cover over the hole, and then taped photographic paper on the inside of the box in a darkroom, opposite the hole. We went around The Mall in D.C. looking for something to photograph. We'd open the pinhole for about 10 seconds, and then cover it back up. We'd bring our cameras back to the darkroom, take out the photographic paper, develop it in 3 baths of chemicals, and let it dry. It wasn't that pleasing. The pictures we took came out as negatives. You could make out what you photographed, but there was no color. The whole image was in black and white. Being a negative, the dark shaded areas of the objects were white, and the light areas were dark. These didn't look like the color photographs I saw from a regular camera. I think I remember asking if there was any way to turn these into photographs, and I was informed no. This was it. I thought maybe it had to do with the fact that regular cameras had lenses, and this didn't, but years later I learned it had to do with the medium (film vs. paper, and the fact that the photographic paper only recorded exposures in black and white), and the process of photography, and developing it (developing a negative on film, and then creating a positive on paper from the negative).TechnologyI got exposed to video games before I saw computers you could use in person. At my local library, there was a lounge in a separate room with a couch and a couple chairs, with a couple video arcade games in it (with the sound turned off). One was a top-view Atari Football game on a monochromatic display that was played from a tabletop (using X's and O's to represent players on the teams). Two players would play it sitting opposite each other. You can see it running on an emulator in the video below. The O’s are on offense, X’s on defense.Another game they had was Atari Sprint, a race car game. It was in a stand-up cabinet.I didn't get my first exposure to computers until my mom took me to visit my aunt in Boston, and she took me to the Boston Children's Museum. There, they had a DEC Vax minicomputer on display that you could get your hands on (though just for 5 minutes). It had about 5 games you could play through a few text terminals. This was in about 1977/78. A friend of my aunt's had a Heathkit microcomputer that he had built himself from a kit. It fit on a tabletop. He let me play on that for a couple hours with a monitor and keyboard, with a little "turtle" graphics program he was able to load on it (it wasn't Logo, just a drawing program with a cursor). Oh, it was entrancing! I wanted more, but I'd have to wait a few more years for that.TravelsMy mom and her boyfriend took me on road trips across the country in one of their cars. To save money, we camped in a tent the whole way. I hated that part. It was usually a pain to set it up. Sometimes we had trouble finding camp grounds with open spaces, and so we’d hunt late into the evening. Then we had to set up the tent in the dark. Ugh! That was the worst. Lose a coupling for the fiberglass rods (think about it, setting the thing up in the dark… This happened often…), and you were SOL. You had to find it, or else you had no place to sleep. We always managed to pull through and find it, though. Sometimes we set it up in the dark, while it was raining! UGH!!From the mid- through the late-70s, we traveled from our home in VA to other states each summer; north to NY and ME, and west across the northern states to CA. I remember once picking up an activity book at a restaurant, and one of the activities was coloring in states on a map that I’d been to. I colored in everything but the southern states, even if we’d just passed through them.The most exciting trips were when we went to CA. One year, we went to Disneyland. I’d wanted to go there since I was introduced to Disney stuff. It wasn’t quite what I expected, but I still enjoyed it. For one thing, they kind of had a “dress code.” My mom and her boyfriend were dressed unconventionally, and I seem to remember the guy we met at the entrance complained a bit about that, but he let us in anyway. Many years later, I learned that Walt Disney wanted the parks to feel like safe environments for kids, which in hindsight I think is an admirable goal. As a result, though, he wanted everything to have a certain look to it.The one downer was we wanted to have a picnic at the park, bringing our own food. They wouldn’t allow it inside the park. We guessed that like at movie theaters in those days, they wanted us to buy food at the concessions. They allowed us to have our picnic, but they directed us to a sheltered slab of concrete near the entrance, surrounded by hedges. That felt like an insult. As I remember, we passed on the picnic…The parking lot was enormous! I’ve seen bits of “National Lampoon’s Vacation,” and the scene where they pull into the parking lot for Wally World reminded me so much of the parking lot for Disneyland (except it was full of cars).The other exciting thing we found in CA was a giant outdoor chess set in or near Big Sur. The pieces were made of wood, and were almost as big as I was. That was amazing! To move a piece, I had to wrap my arms around it, heave it up, and move it to a new space. I played against my mom’s boyfriend, who was more into chess than I was. He beat me, of course, but I didn’t care. I so loved playing with that chess set!Other major stops I remember us making were to a few communes. These were places where we stayed for a while. Each one had a different character. One we went to felt more rustic, kind of like the Old West. They had log cabins, deep snow (we went out during the winter), temperatures at 30 below zero, and good crafts artwork. Another looked very much like a rather typical suburban neighborhood, with conventional looking houses grouped fairly close together (though I think they just had dirt roads). Another was on a farm or ranch. I remember they made products to sell to raise money for the community. One I remember in particular was what they called “hammock chairs.” They were made at the commune inside a small factory. My mom, her boyfriend, and I worked on making them, like a bunch of other people there. They had a common kitchen with fresh milk served every day from dairy cows that were on the commune grounds. One thing I remember is they had limited indoor plumbing. The common kitchen had it, but I don’t think anyplace else did. To go to the bathroom, you used outhouses. Some of them had more than one seat, and they weren’t particular about being male or female-only…As they are famous for, the communes had the “free love” thing going on, and it’s been my impression that it wasn’t what it was cracked up to be. People participated in it (it was expected, though nobody was forced into it), but only some of the people seemed to like it.Along the way, during our travels, my mom and her boyfriend found a couple of their favorite spots. We passed through CO one year, and they really liked it. We went up to Grand Teton National Park, and then Yellowstone (just north of Teton Park) in WY. My mom to this day loves Grand Teton National Park. She insisted on going back there every summer for years. We eventually moved out to CO. I get to that below.PoliticsThis seems like an odd subject to bring up, since I was a kid, but my mom was a political activist from the time I was little, and she involved me with all of it, whether I understood any of it or not.When I was about 3 or 4, she took me to small protests in Washington, D.C. where people would march in a circle holding signs. She got her own poster material, and wrote her own messages on them before we went to these things. She had me in a stroller, holding a sign while we joined them, marching in circles. I didn’t particularly like it. It was hot, and boring. I would learn years later that these protests were for impeaching President Nixon.Once she met her boyfriend, and I got a bit older, they got involved with other political protests in D.C., and they took me along. We went to some of the biggest, and somewhat famous “no nukes” rallies, opposing nuclear power and nuclear weapons. When I was about 7, I made my own tiny contribution to one of them by coming up with a small cardboard sign on which I wrote, “Let’s create new clear energy.” I came up with that myself.I remember we also attended concerts by politically active musicians Quilapayun, and Holly Near, who supported protests against Chile’s dictator, Pinochet. Here’s a sampling of the music.“Fired Up!”“Singing For Our Lives”“Harbor Me”“Water Come Down”“El pueblo unido jamás será vencido” (translated from the Spanish: “The people united will never be defeated”)“Que dirá el Santo Padre” (translated from the Spanish: “What the Holy Father will say”)“La Batea”In 1979, we moved out to CO, since my mom's boyfriend had finished law school, and had to decide where he wanted to practice. They just liked it better out here. So we moved into a small cabin in a mountain community for several months. I attended a one-room schoolhouse, one of the last in the country. Pre-schoolers through second graders were in the back part of the schoolhouse with a wall separating it from the main part, where third through sixth graders all attended class in the same room. Even though I went through it, I don't remember how they taught the different grade levels. Somehow they made it work. I remember there were some common lessons. The schoolhouse also had a small book library in it. The school was in a small community with at most a few hundred people. The most significant assignment I remember doing while attending this school was writing a research paper on the evolution of horses from more ancient ancestors (as a 4th grader).The stint didn't last long. After about 6 months, we moved out of the mountains and into city life. I've lived in CO ever since.