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Birnbaum's 2019 Walt Disney World: The Official GuideAs Walt Disney World continues to grow and evolve, trust Birnbaum as your guide! The 2019 edition delves into detailed descriptions of all attractions, resorts, and eateries; offers money-saving coupons and strategies to maximize your vacation budget; and includes a peek into what's new:What's it like to be a toy in Andy's backyard? You'll soon find out at Disney's Hollywood Studios brand-new 11-acre area known as Toy Story Land! The land features two new attractions: a family-friendly roller coaster known as Slinky Dog Dash and the Alien Swirling Saucers ride in which guests strive to elude the famous "Claw" while spinning in a saucer vehicle.The Force grows stronger at Disney's Hollywood Studios every day: read about the ongoing construction of the highly anticipated realm known as Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge. The immersive, new 14-acre land (slated to open by late 2019) will give guests of Disney's Hollywood Studios the opportunity to explore a never-before-seen world and interact with creatures and droids from the popular Star Wars franchise.The ever-popular Epcot International Food & Wine Festival is bigger and better than ever. Look here for new details on this and other special Epcot events (Flower & Garden Festival, Epcot International Arts Festival, The Disney and Pixar Short Film Festival, and more).Get a sneak peek of the Disney Skyliner. This new transportation system will offer a bird's-eye view of Walt Disney World via airborne gondolas.Imagineers are busy enhancing favorite resorts and building brand new ones, including Disney Riviera Resort (planned to open in late 2019/early 2020) and a new hotel with a Star Wars theme. We'll share details to help you plan future visits!Disney Cruise Line weighs anchor a mere 50 miles from Walt Disney World, making a surf-and-turf vacation a tempting possibility for many a Disney guest. A special Birnbaum "bonus" chapter guides guests from possibility to reality, laying out all the details for pairing a Disney Cruise with a visit to Walt Disney World.

Hi,We have a very good post about PMBOK PDF, please read it. You will find how you can reach and download it as well:PMBOK PDF: How Can You Get The PMBOK PDF?Which is that one key resource that you can rely on for PMP certification? Definitely, PMBOK pdf is the most important resource for your PMP exam prep. If you are on the PMP journey, PMBOK PDF is a must have. Why and what is there in PMBOK pdf? We are going to explore PMBOK pdf in this article.What is PMBOK pdf?PMBOK pdf stands for Project Management Body of Knowledge which is produced by the world-renowned institute, Project Management Institute (PMI). PMBOK pdf contains the project management framework. It has been encapsulated with the combined knowledge of a huge number of practicing project management professionals who are members of PMI.How is PMBOK available?PMI institute is the globally present and recognized not-for profit institute for project management. PMI advocates project management best practices and offers various foundational and practice standards pertaining to project management. PMBOK pdf is the foundational Gold standard in project management.Can I get PMBOK PDF as PMP Training Material?This is actually one of the most frequenyly asked questions we receive from students. PMBOK PDF is sole proprietary of PMI and no other organization can provide it as a training material. However, during your PMP application, if you choose to be a PMI member as well, while the total cost for PMP examination will not change, you will have access to PMI library for one year, including PMBOK PDF. Therefore, we strongly recommend you to apply for the option including the one-year PMI membership.You can see further details in our PMP certification cost article.How can I get a copy of PMBOK pdf?If you are a PMI member, you can get a personalized copy of the PMBOK pdf. You may login to PMI | Project Management Institute and under mypmi, you can find the link to download PMBOK pdf. While, if you are a non-member, you can purchase your copy of paperback edition of PMBOK pdf from PMI. Again, if you are a member, you can buy the paperback edition at $49.50 and if you have not taken membership, you can get it at $65.50.Why to be a PMI member and how?Why are you interested in PMBOK pdf? One, you want to go for PMP or CAPM certification, the other could be you are keen on understanding the best way of executing projects. Either way, if you take membership, you can get discount for your PMP or CAPM certification exam too.Even if you are only interested in gaining knowledge on project management, the membership gives you access to a host of resources on PMI website ranging from whitepapers to webinars, guides, virtual events, etc.You can login to PMI website and pay the membership fee of $139 to become a member.PMBOK Pdf: What does it contain?PMBOK is a guide to project management body of knowledge. Did you know PMBOK pdf is updated periodically by the volunteer community comprising of project management professionals from world over. This means you are getting access to the world class, global best practices. Are you aware that PMBOK pdf is currently in 5thedition and the 6thedition is slated to be released in the third quarter of 2017 as per PMI?Knowledge areas in PMBOKPMBOK pdf is organized as knowledge areas with processes in each knowledge area. A knowledge area deals with a particular aspect of project management. There are ten knowledge areas in the 5th edition of PMBOK.You have Integration, Scope, Time, Cost, Quality, Human Resources, Communications, Risk, Procurement, and Stakeholder knowledge areas. For example, Cost management covers the processes that are need to define way the cost management is to be done, estimating the various costs in a project and creating a budget which needs to be controlled during project implementation.Processes in PMBOKYou cannot swallow the whole project management body of knowledge in one go. Therfore, PMBOK pdf is divided into knowledge areas to understand in depth a particular area such as cost or quality. You have in all 47 processes across the ten knowledge areas.Each process has certain inputs which are processed using various tools and techniques to get the desired outputs. There is an interlinking between the processes of the knowledge area and also other knowledge areas as is seen in projects.Introductory concepts in PMBOKPMBOK also discussed the basic of project management, importance of organizational structures and the five process groups. Initiating, Planning, Executing, Monitoring & Controlling and Closing are the five process groups. The processes are spread across these five process groups and ten knowledge areas in PMBOK pdf.Why do you need PMBOK?If you are a project manager and want to know how to plan and manage projects to ensure better success, you need to understand the framework of the PMBOK pdf. Moreover, you will also know the language of project management as spoken globally by project managers. You will be able to appreciate the importance of the various nuances that need to be addressed for better management of projects.READ THE FULL POST: 2018 PMBOK PDF: How Can You Get The PMBOK PDF?

Deep Value = Deep Due Diligence.Let's take a look at a deep value opportunity that recently hurt many investors. In 2007 - 2008, National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), a $27 B large cap company, went from $13 to $3.8/share, -70% in a year (numbers are approximate, adjusted for splits):This kind of price collapse typically draws attention of value investors, especially for such large companies. NBG popped up on many value screens.Inexperienced investors made the following arguments:It used to trade for $13 just a year ago, so at $3.8 it's a bargain;NBG is the largest commercial bank in Greece, founded in 1841, survived two world wars in its 168 year history - it will survive again!Historical ROE is 24% - very profitable business!P/E ratio: 3.7x vs. historical 18x - 22x. Earnings are dirt cheap!P/B ratio: 0.6x vs. historical 2x - 3x. Downside is limited!Dividend yield: 5%. Will be getting paid while waiting!Experienced investors distilled the situation to several key assumptions, and their thesis looked like this (over-simplified):Market priced-in 50% loss on NBG's government bonds portfolio. Too much, impairments will be less severe;Market priced-in 7% in bad loan losses. This ratio is significantly above historical norm and seems too conservative:Short sellers insisted that both bond and bad loan losses were severely underestimated. They claimed that the bank was insolvent, and its common stock was worthless.Three years forward. Here is how NBG stock looks today (splits-adjusted):It went from $3.8 to $0.07. Longs lost 98% of their money. Why?The first group - amateur investors - are simply not qualified for deep value investing. They are full of misconceptions and psychological biases that prevent them from making correct decisions:"It used to trade for $13, at $3.8 it's a bargain" - this is a basic psychological bias called Anchoring. Completely irrelevant to the investment decision;"It will surely survive!": they confused the survival of the institution with the survival of investment. The bank might exist for another 100 years, but your stocks can be wiped out or heavily diluted;"Profitable business" - In the past. Results might look very differently in the future;P/E ratio is low. First, P/E ratio is a poor, simplistic valuation technique in general. Second, using P/E ratio for deep value situations is especially wrong, because "E" in the ratio is a mess. Third, what looks cheap in terms of the past, might actually be very expensive in terms of the future results;Downside is limited. Low P/B is not a good measure of the downside. "B" is vulnerable to losses, write-offs and impairments, and might go to zero and below;Dividend yield can disappear any time, as companies typically cut their dividends in a time of crisis.The second group - experienced investors - understood the situation correctly, but made the wrong estimates of the future. Here is how their assumptions played out:Greek government bonds loss. Assumption: -50%. Actual: -75%.Bad loans loss. Assumption: -7%. Actual: -31%:Investors misjudged bad loan losses more than 4x! Since 2009, NBG wrote-off $19 B, and its common equity went from +$5.6 B to -$3.9 B. The bank is now insolvent, and its common stock is worthless. Short sellers got it right.With this example in mind, a few suggestions that might help you avoid similar blow-ups in your portfolio:1: Make sure you are qualified to play this game.Be honest with yourself - are you experienced enough for Deep Value Investing? DVI is complex. In fact, only distressed investing and fundamental short-selling require even more sophistication in fundamental analysis. Before going for deep value,Make sure you graduated from Investment 101. Read this book: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing: Pat DorseyIf anything in it is new to you, keep studying;Master regular value investing first. Study all of Ben Graham and Warren Buffett. Workout your misconceptions and biases on simpler cases. Manage a portfolio of regular value investments profitably through at least one market cycle.2: Improve quality of your deal flow.Don't use typical value screens that rely on large price drops, low P/E and P/B ratios. They yield too many potential value traps and torpedoes.Seek situations where mispricing is likely to occur, and then search for the cheap stocks within these situations;Focus on a limited number of industries. Deep industry expertise will help you recognize opportunities better and give advantage over "generalist" investors;Focus on a limited number of situation types. It will help you judge quality of opportunities with more confidence.3: Make analysis forward-looking.Basing investment decisions on backward-looking analysis is probably the biggest reason for investment losses.Never assume that the future will be similar to the past. Occasionally past trends resume, but often they change dramatically and permanently;Use historical analysis to educate yourself about the company, the industry, and the situation;Then conduct prospective analysis: make judgements about the possible future for the company, and apply valuation analysis to your forecasts.This book will give you a solid conceptual framework for analysis:Business Analysis and Valuation Using Financial Statements: Krishna Palepu4: Use methodical decision-making process.Resist temptation to make investments on intuition. Intuition of an expert is an educated judgment derived from extensive experience. Intuition of a novice is an impulsive gambling and an excuse to skip due diligence. You must earn the right to make intuitive calls. Until then:Make all your decisions explicitly - put them in writing. Never invest without a written Investment Thesis;Develop a detailed financial model to understand the financial side of the business;Supplement the model with a written Q&A to understand qualitative side of the business. This book will help you formulate proper questions:The Investment Checklist: The Art of In-Depth Research: Michael ShearnWriting and modeling kill impulsiveness and force you to think things through. Don't skip them!5: Dig deep.Depth of research is your best risk-reduction tool. By definition, deep value opportunities have elevated complexity and uncertainty. You will get paid only if you figure out the situation better than the majority of investors, despite all distortions.Quality of accounting often deteriorates significantly. Don’t accept financial statements at the face value, be skeptical and study fine print thoroughly:Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports: Howard SchilitSpend enough time on analytical adjustments to get more realistic financial picture. This is a good reference (pdf file):S&P's Encyclopedia of Analytical AdjustmentsQualitative information also gets increasingly distorted. While few managers will lie outright, many will put a spin on their stories, downplay negatives or omit important facts. Be critical of information that comes from the company, read between the lines and get closer to the source. Which brings the next point:6: Do reality check.To make decisions with more confidence, do reality check - go out. Attend industry trade shows and other events, interview customers, sales people, competitors, suppliers, regulators - anyone who has better exposure to the situation than you (but be mindful about violating insider trading laws). Cross-reference their information and get a feeling of what is really going on. A good book on field research:Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Philip Fisher7: Master proper valuation methods.Deep value situations are not suitable for naive valuation techniques such as P/E ratio, P/B ratio, or DCF models where terminal value explains 80% of the price. You must master more sophisticated valuation methods:Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies: McKinseyEquity Asset Valuation: John StoweApplied Equity Analysis: Stock Valuation Techniques for Wall Street Professionals: James EnglishBusiness Valuation and Bankruptcy: Ian Ratner8: Identify catalysts.Experienced value investors don't invest until they identify possible catalysts. A catalyst is an event that will make other investors recognize the true value of the stock. Catalysts are important for 2 reasons:To avoid value traps. Without a catalyst, you might get stuck with the suppressed valuation for a long time, even if you are correct about the underlying value;To have a clear exit strategy. If expected catalysts don't materialize within the expected time frame, exit your investment.9: Enforce decision quality.Make deliberate effort to enforce quality of your decisions. There are many techniques available. A few ones I use:To make sure you have a balanced view, always list pros and cons;Analyze consensus expectations and explain where they are wrong;Show your thesis to people who know the situation. See how they react to your conclusions, get feedback;Debate with short-sellers. If you can't find any, take a short-seller view yourself, and debate with experienced longs;Develop a check list of common psychological biases in investing, and screen your decisions: Behavioral Investing: A Practitioners Guide to Applying Behavioral Finance: James Montier Psychology of Investing: John Nofsinger10: Respect Short-Sellers.Many short sellers are true masters of fundamental analysis. Avoid playing the blame game. Even if you disagree with their thesis, evaluate it rationally and thoroughly.Good short sellers, such as James Chanos ("Warren Buffett" of shorting) are hard to find - they keep it quiet. Seek them deliberately, and follow them;Learn analytical techniques used by short sellers. Unfortunately, literature on fundamental short selling is scarce. The only good book I know of:The Art of Short Selling: Kathryn Staley 11: Consider various instruments.The same investment thesis can be executed using different instruments. Their availability varies from case to case, but usually you have some choices:Study company's capital structure. If it has other public securities such as preferred stocks or bonds, consider taking higher position in the capital hierarchy to reduce risks. Warren Buffett often uses this technique when common equity is too risky for him;If the stock has reasonably liquid derivatives, consider getting desired exposure via call options, warrants, or convertible bonds.12: Size positions properly.I follow these simple rules when deciding how much to invest:If I lose 100%, it won't put me in any kind of financial troubles. No margin calls under any scenario: never leverage your deep value investments!No emotional pressure from the position size - it should not affect my sleep or give me stomach butterflies. Not exactly scientific, but works well;Size positions based on your level of confidence. Just make sure your confidence comes from deep due diligence, not ignorance.13: Have a written investment plan.It really helps to plan in advance how you will manage your position, in writing. It makes decisions more thoughtful and rational.Plan how you will enter the position. Set target position size. Decide on timing: buy all at once, accumulate over time, or stage accumulation on specific milestones as your thesis matures;Plan how you will monitor the position. Prepare schedule of key expected events, list metrics and assumptions to watch;Plan for the negative exit. Quit if the catalyst does not materialize as expected, or if new information invalidates your investment thesis. Don't sell based on the size of the loss, it's irrational.Plan for the positive exit. Sell when the stock becomes fairly valued. Don't sell based on the profit or price targets, it's irrational.Don't get greedy. If you consider keeping the stock after its valuation recovers, write a new investment thesis - long-term investing is a different strategy.14: Manage position as part of the portfolio.I view deep value investing as a supplementary strategy and limit it to 2-4 positions in my portfolio, out of 15-20 total. As the number of positions increases, your diversification improves, but you start losing depth.Some people limit deep value investments to portfolio profits (dividends, interest, short-term gains), while keeping core capital in something less risky. Not exactly a scientific approach, but psychologically useful - loss of profit is not as severe as the loss of core capital, especially if you manage money for other people;You can take out some risks by creating proper long/short pairs. For example, short a mediocre, fully valued company in the same space against your deep value stock to isolate company-specific risks.15: Train your intuition.Make an effort to build your intuition. You will gain some experience over time anyway, but with deliberate efforts you will progress faster and better. A few techniques I use to calibrate my judgement:Study past cases, such as NBG. See what longs and shorts were saying along the way. Analyze who was wrong and why;Learn from distressed investing. This investment strategy has a lot in common with deep value investing, and uses many similar analytical and valuation techniques: Distress Investing: Principles and Technique: Martin Whitman Distressed Debt Analysis: Strategies for Speculative Investors: Stephen Moyer Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and Invest in Distressed Debt: Edward AltmanKeep Investment Diary. Upon each exit, write an exit report, describing the outcome and lessons learned. Review it again one year after the exit, for more lessons. Keep periodically reviewing your closed cases. Over time, Investment Diary will become one of your best learning tools.