Lin Basket: Fill & Download for Free

I feel incredibly silly answering this question after Daryl Morey, but I always talk about the stats I keep, so I might as well use them.Two things about Jeremy and his turnovers:Jeremy Lin has the ball in his hands more than almost any other player in the NBA. By my numbers, he trails only Nash, Rondo and D-Will. So he's going to have more turnovers than most players just because he's doing more with the ball.Unlike many point guards (Nash and Rondo for two), Lin drives to the basket a lot. Among players who have the ball in their hands a lot, the only two who get fouled more often than Lin are LeBron James and Russell Westbrook. That's going to lead to more turnovers - charges and tough passes - but it also leads to more baskets. On a per-touch basis, Lin turns the ball over about as often as Westbrook, and he completes a higher percentage of his key passes.If you are just counting stats, yes, Lin has a lot of turnovers. But when you adjust the numbers by the amount of key touches he gets and the percentage of key passes that he's completing, and also factor that he's getting to the basket more than most point guards, his turnovers are by no means a major issue.

Both of these young point guards are intriguing in different ways. Lin excels on offense, while Beverley's calling card is on the defensive end of the floor. Linsanity took the NBA by storm (even non-fans know his name) while Beverley isn't well known outside the nerdiest of NBA circles. Since the end of last season I've held the (often disagreed with) opinion that Beverley should start while Lin comes off the bench.*Nervously senses the presence of Jeremy Lin on Quora*Here's my case:In basketball, I believe that talent is almost always more important than fit. However, this is the rare instance where two players are close enough in ability that it's important to consider the role they can fill given their teammates.Lin's best skill is his ability to drive to the basket and either score (he shot a solid 63% at the rim last season) or find a teammate for an open shot (he averaged 6.8 assists per 36 minutes). Being able to consistently create open shots is essential for efficient NBA offenses. However, fellow Rocket James Harden is one of the best players in the league at this. Lin is above average, but Harden is elite. Possessions where Lin is responsible for shot creation are ones where Harden doesn't have the ball in his hands. The Rockets prefer to let Harden do what he does best, which means Lin's best skill doesn't get utilized as much when the two play together.This would be less of a problem if Lin were also a knockdown three-point shooter--he could play off the ball and look for open shots while Harden attacks the defense off the dribble. However, Lin only shot 34% on a relatively low 3.5 three-point attempts for 36 minutes. This isn't awful, but doesn't strike any fear in opponents.Meanwhile, Beverley shot 38%on 4.8 threes per 36 minutes--that means more shots, and more efficiency. That difference might seem minor, but consider that the Rockets averaged 1.067 points per possession last season. A Lin three-pointer earns an expected 1.02 points per shot, while a Beverley three earns an expected 1.14 points--better than an average possession (even before considering offensive rebound opportunities). Over the course of a season, that efficiency difference adds up.Besides his outside shooting, Beverley is a better defender than Lin. When Beverley was on the court last season, the Rockets defense improved by 5.4 points per 100 possessions [1]. When you examine lineups with the same other four players (only swapping Beverley and Lin), Beverley's lineups gave up four less points per 100 possessions on offense (and scored three more on offense) [2]. Some of this is probably due to Beverley mostly playing backup (and thus playing against easier lineups), but watching the two players also makes it clear who the stronger defender is. Because Beverley's skills complement the Rockets' other starters better than Lin's, he should play more minutes with that unit.While Lin's talents are redundant when Harden is on the court, Lin can be extremely valuable when Harden rests. Lin could control the ball and run pick and rolls to create shots for himself and teammates. This is a skill Beverley isn't nearly as good at Lin. While Lin sometimes has trouble creating against top point guards, there are very few backups in the league who could guard him well. Defenses would have to commit extra players to help on him, which would open up shots for other players. Playing Lin whenever Harden is on the bench would ensure the Rockets always have one quality shot creator on the floor and would use their talent resources more efficiently. I'm all in on Bench-sanity.Can both point guards play together? Yes, but the Rockets hope they have better options. Because they offer different skill sets, Beverley could shift to a shooting guard role on offense while Lin handles the ball. The Rockets could do this either with or without Harden on the floor and run their offense effectively. However, this creates unfavorable matchups on defense where one of the smaller guards has to guard a shooting guard. Against teams that sometimes play only one offensively skilled guard (say, the Thunder when they play Thabo Sefolosha), the Rockets could get away with this. But if they have to rely on this combination every game, there will be teams that torch those lineups. Houston currently has a lot of uncertainty on the bench, and if none of their backup wings (Francisco Garcia, Omar Casspi, Reggie Williams) can provide consistently solid play, a dual-point guard attack might be a necessity. However, I don't think that's something the team wants to have to rely on.One last spin on this question--Should the Rockets trade one of their point guards? Houston has a clear need at power forward, but I think that's better filled by a trade involving Omer Asik, who was made entirely redundant by the signing of Dwight Howard. Beverley is on a minimum contract, which makes it unlikely he gets traded (unless he's part of a bigger deal, probably including Asik). Moving Lin is an option, especially if he gets benched, but the way his contract is structured (he's due $15 million next season) makes it harder to get equal quality for him. Rockets GM Daryl Morey has pulled trades out of thin air, so I wouldn't be shocked if he swung a great trade for Lin, but I don't think it's at the top of the agenda. I like the depth offered by two point guards with different skills, so I see no reason to force a trade.[1] Patrick Beverley 2012-13 On/Off[2] Page on Appspot

It’s simple.Most people don’t do enough research to understand what they have bought or are buying.And so, on days the stock market looks like this…People panic and sell.It’s just a natural behavior that comes from not understanding what and why you’ve bought what you bought.This isn’t just true with stock-picking, but it also rings true when people invest in index funds. In fact, I have a few friends who stick their money into mutual or index funds without even knowing what the funds actually hold.I sometimes share a few of my investment ideas, and it’s funny how people still manage to lose money even when my stocks go up.Truth is, you can copy someone else’s investment idea, but you can’t copy someone else’s conviction.You have to do your own work.Otherwise, you will be an emotional basket case and always be reacting to the market based on your primary human instincts.Take a look below…There are numerous studies that have shown that humans feel about 2.25x more pain with losses than pleasure with gain.And so, we all want to avoid short-term pain and seek short-term pleasure.This is why when the stock market goes up, everybody suddenly wants in. When the stock market goes down, everybody wants out.This is also why it’s so hard to hold on or buy more of the same stock when it is declining in price, even when fundamentals are the same or getting better.We all fall victims to our emotions, which is why the key to investing successfully is…Understanding what you own.Minimizing the variance of your emotions.At the end of the day, the biggest risk in the stock market isn’t what the Fed is doing nor presidential election outcomes. The biggest risk in investing is yourself.This is why an invest-and-forget strategy works best for most people in the long run.You basically do your research to find the best stocks, invest an amount you’re willing to lose, and just go travel and forget about your account.It’s what people call a coffee can portfolio…Having a coffee can portfolio simplifies the complexities of investing and ensures that you don’t fall prey to your emotions.Let’s look at Amazon as an example…If you had invested $1,000 in Amazon between in IPO in 1997 and May of 2020, you would have turned your $1,000 into more than $1.2M.However, Amazon lost 50% or more of its value on 3 different occasions (Amazon actually lost 95% of its value when the dot-com bubble popped).My question to you is, even if you had invested in Amazon when they IPO’ed, would you have had the equanimity and conviction to hold on or buy more if you were checking your stocks every day?Therein lies the challenge of investing.If you’re interested in learning about coffee can portfolio investment ideas targeting 5x–10x+ returns, I highly recommend reading Chris MacIntosh’s weekly newsletter.Chris retired in his late-20s, having made his fortune in asymmetric bets like…The New Zealand real estate (64x return)The last commodities bull market (10x)Bitcoin (30x)Shipping (17x)He now runs a deep value hedge fund and is sharing what he’s doing in his fund with retail investors who are not accredited investors and cannot access his fund.PS - If this was helpful, SMASH upvote and share!