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David S. Rose: Are we in a tech bubble (late 2015)?
This is one of those questions which seems simple, but is actually quite complicated.The first issue is your definition of a Bubble. Is this anything like The Dutch Tulip Bubble? Not at all. The 1995-2000 Dot-Com Bubble? Not remotely. Those were near-cataclysmic events that affected entire industries and the global economy. They both took place during periods of "irrational exuberance", during which common sense was thrown to the wind, and masses of people believed in magical thinking.In contrast, today we are living in an exponentially accelerating world in which the very fundamentals of technology, business and society are changing in front of our eyes. As such, there is a need for a nearly infinite number of new, high-growth businesses that challenge the status quo. As I have repeatedly said, "any business designed for success in the 20th century...is doomed to failure in the 21st!"Meanwhile, we have to tease apart the funding lifecycle of innovative companies to figure out what is actually happening. As I see it, there are four distinct markets that partially interact with each other, but really are separate:The public market for "tech" companiesWe're seeing some some softening here, and I do think that there is going to be a moderate correction of some kind in the next year or so, because the market has gotten a bit confused between 'real' value creators (like Apple and Amazon) and 'still potential' value creators. This will end up with slight drops in the real guys, and bigger haircuts in the wannabes, but nothing remotely like the past couple of crashes.The pre-IPO private marketThis is where things have gotten more out of whack. Because of a few private strategic acquisitions at valuations that would be crazy if they were considered on their own, the private financial markets have gone too far out on a limb, and there will be a big correction here. Expect to see many fewer Decacorns for a while, although the real ones, like Uber, will keep most of their value.The Series A/B venture worldThis will remain strong but limited, with VCs continuing to make sizeable bets on disruptive plays.The Seed WorldThis will actually grow, with the primary effect of the "softening" being to bring seed valuations back to where they should be: in the $2-4 million pre, rather that the $4-8 they are currently flirting with.So, no bubble...but think like a rational person before you start placing your bets :-)
What’s Wrong with Yahoo?
Yahoo started as a manually-constructed list of links to Web sites and aspired to be a media portal to the Web. The culture that developed at Yahoo apparently shortchanged engineering in the grand scheme of things (media people were viewed more important). At Google, engineers were first-class citizens, so Google attracted top engineers and could be very selective in hiring. Over the years, Google (and later Facebook) assembled a greater brain and skill capital than Yahoo. Google started later than Yahoo and viewed the core challenge as an algorithmic problem - finding the best Web sites through automated indexing and real-time search, not manual indexing like Yahoo. So, Google relied on automation more, used a memorable, minimalistic interface that didn’t require daily maintenance, focused on a better-defined objective, and leapfrogged the competition. With a leaner operation, Google wasn’t hit as hard by the dot-com bubble bursting (the dot-bomb) as Yahoo. Facebook started much later, had a crisp goal, and also managed to attract great engineers, many from Google. Like Google, Facebook stayed lean for a while, remaining flexible and sensitive to what prospective customers wanted.Lessons learned (for the long term)focusing on one thing and becoming the best at it is importanteffective automation beats manual laborquality hiring and retention are importantlean operation helps survive in a slow economyGoogle’s obsession with infrastructure and its data-driven culture of self-improvement were prescient (Amazon is another example). Reliable and scalable infrastructure is very attractive to engineers - it improves the learning curve, avoids routine, provides a valuable experience and helps building resumes even when projects fail. It also makes possible acquisition more attractive to innovative companies that can leverage their technology at the Google scale. Google realized this advantage early and made a number of strategic acquisitions, such as YouTube, the team that developed the Android OS, and more recently DeepMind. In contrast, Yahoo wasn’t as successful in acquisitions and their integration, so missed many market opportunities.Another lesson learnedplanning and optimizing for the large scale - data, processing, engineering, business, branding - ensures continuing innovation and helps capture new markets
Does private equity do more harm than good for the economy?
It does more good. It encourages entrepreneurship and innovation. Without private equity it would be much harder for entrepreneurs to:Raise capital to start a business (venture capital is also a form of private equity)Raise growth capital to expand their businessBring on additional partners to enhance their expertiseDiversify their risk in any wayMake strategic acquisitionsBorrowExit from their business or retireThese are powerful benefits of the private equity industry that help encourage vibrant and innovative economies.
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