Glasgow City Strategy Business Plan: Fill & Download for Free

1/ Baby Box - a jam-packed box of baby essentials to help new parents at the start of a child's life.2/ Childcare - 800 hours of early learning and childcare, saving families up to £2,500 per child per year @theSNP3/ Free Tuition - students in England face tuition fees up to £27,750 - Scottish students receive university tuition free4/ Period Poverty - Scotland is the first in the world to make sanitary products available free to all pupils and students5/ Prescriptions - prescription charges abolished in Scotland - now £9 per item south of the border6/ Cheaper Council Tax - every Scottish household benefits from cheaper tax bills - on average £500 less than England7/ Care For All - Free personal and nursing care extended to everyone who needs it, regardless of age8/ Free Bus Travel - Over one million Scots now enjoy free travel, including over-60s and disabled people9/ Record Health funding - over £13.9 billion in 2019/20, £4 billion more than when we took office10/ 13,600 more staff in Scotland's NHS, that's over 10% more since 200711/ Health spending in Scotland is £185 per person higher than in England12/ Patient satisfaction is at a five-year high in Scotland, with 86% of patients rating their inpatient experience positively13/ Scotland's A&E services are the best performing in the UK - for almost four years running14/ We are investing £110 million to support implementation of a new GP contract to support wider primary care reform15/ We are investing £200 million in a network of elective and diagnostic treatment centres across the country, as well as expanding the Golden Jubilee, to help meet the needs of an ageing population16/ Over £5 billion has been invested in Scotland's health infrastructure since 2007, includingScotland's superhospital in Glasgow, Dumfries Infirmary, Orkney Hospital & Aberdeen's Emergency Care Centre17/ Most nurses in Scotland are better paid than anywhere else in the UK, and none are paid less than their counterparts in NHS England18/ We've committed £40 million for 2,600 extra nursing and midwifery training places over this Parliament, & are investing £3 million more to train 500 advanced nurse practitioners19/ Scotland has the highest number of GP's per head of population in the UK.20/ We're training more paramedics, with a commitment to train 1,000 more by 202121/ We've expanded IVF to more families - making access in Scotland the fairest and most generous in the UK.22/ Scotland is leading the world on alcohol pricing, being the first country to implement minimum unit pricing23/ Our patient safety record is amongst the best in the world, infection from C.Diff and MRSA has dramatically reduced in over 65's by 88% and 94% under our government24/ We are implementing our new Cancer Strategy, investing £100 million to improve the prevention, early diagnosis and treatment of cancer.25/ The risk from cervical cancer for the next generation of young women has been cut by providing the HPV vaccine for girls in second year of secondary school26/ Parking charges at all NHS-run hospitals scrapped - saving patients and staff around £27 million.27/ Scotland led the UK by introducing a mental health waiting times target, and our spending on mental health services exceeded £1 billion in 2018.28/ 94% of the Scottish population are now registered with an NHS dentist - double what it was when we took office in 200729/ Free tuition and bursaries for student nurses have been scrapped in England.In Scotland, we've protected free tuition and the nursing and midwifery bursary rises to £8,100 for 2019 and £10,000 for 2020.30/ Irresponsible alcohol discounts in supermarkets and off-licences are now banned, and we've raised the legal age for buying tobacco to 18.31/ We've made it illegal to smoke in a car with anyone under the age of 18.32/ Everyone who uses social care services can now control their individual care budget through the Self-directed Support Act.33/ We've provided extra funding for Scotland's veteran charities, and ensured our ex-service men & women receive priority treatment in the NHS and other services.34/ We are investing record amounts in schools to close the attainment gap - £120 million going direct to schools in 2019 alone.35/ All 135,000 pupils in primaries 1 to 3 now benefit from free school meals, saving families around £380 per child per year.36/ We've launched the Scottish Attainment Challenge, with investment of £750 million over the life of this parliament.37/ We've provided extra resources to local councils, allowing spending on education to increase in real terms for the past three years, up by £189 million in 2018/19.38/ 847 schools upgraded since 2007, providing well-designed, accessible and inclusive learning environments for pupils.39/ Record number of Scots are being accepted to study at university with record numbers from our most deprived communities too.40/ We've launched the First Minister's Reading Challenge to encourage all children to read for pleasure.41/ We've introduced a national £100 school clothing grant to help relieve family pressure.42/ Since 2012, we have invested over £1 billion per year in Scotland's universities.43/ We have protected the Disabled Students Allowance and bursaries for students, both abolished elsewhere in the UK.44/ We've expanded the Education Maintenance Allowance in Scotland- now scrapped south of the border - to support even more school pupils and college students from low income families.45/ We maintain the funding for at least 116,000 full-time college places.46/ We're providing our further education students with record levels of support. £111 million in 2018/19 - up 33% under the SNP.47/ We are supporting the college sector to maintain colleges and to deliver new campuses, including investment of over £228 million in the new City of Glasgow College super campus.48/ The number of higher education qualifiers from college is at an all-time high.49/ Graduates from Scottish universities are earning more than their counterparts in the rest of the UK.50/ Full-time college students in Scotland can now benefit from the highest bursary of anywhere in the UK.51/ Scotland provides the best package of support for university students in the UK - with free tuition, low interest rates for student loan repayments, and a minimum income guarantee of £7,625.52/ We've introduced a £20,000 bursary for career changers aiming to become teachers in priority science, technology, engineering or maths (STEM) subjects, with home-economics included for the first time last year.53/ Scotland's unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest rate on record, under the SNP.54/ Scotland is the top destination in the UK, outside of London, for foreign direct investment.55/ We have delivered a new progressive tax system, supporting additional investment in our public services while safeguarding those on lower incomes.56/Scotland has the most generous business rates relief package in the UK - worth more than £750 million.57/ Scotland's international exports are up 57.2% under the SNP - valued at £32.4 billion in 2017.58/ We're leading the way on fair pay. Over 1,300 organisations are now accredited Living Wage employers - over one quarter of the total across the UK.59/ We've met our target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% - four years early.60/ Business research and development spend in Scotland increased by 13.9% in 2017 to reach a record £1.25 billion, compared to a UK increase of just 2.9%.61/ To help protect jobs and businesses through the recession, we've slashed or abolished business rates for over 100,000 premises - saving small businesses around £1.7 billion to date.62/ Scotland has the highest pay anywhere in the UK outside of London, the South East and East regions.63/ Scotland's productivity is outperforming the UK as a whole. Since 2007 productivity in Scotland has grown 10.3%, compared to growth of 2.9% in the UK.64/ Over 230,000 young people have had the opportunity to undertake a Modern Apprenticeship since 2007. And by 2020, a further 30,000 opportunities will be available every year.65/ We've made relentless efforts to protect manufacturing job, notably saving Scotland's remaining steel works from closure.66/ The number of private sector businesses in Scotland is at the highest level since records began.67/ £500 million to stimulate and support economic growth in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley.68/ £125 million to stimulate and support economic growth in the city as part of the Aberdeen City Region Deal, £254 million more for infrastructure projects across the north east of Scotland.69/ £135 million in the Inverness and Highland City Region Deal - two and a half times the UK government investment.70/ £300 million to deliver inclusive economic growth in Edinburgh and the south east of Scotland.71/ £200 million for the Tay Cities Region Deal, focusing on innovation, internationalisation, connectivity and empowerment.72/ £45 million for the Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal to unlock investment, deliver new jobs and economic growth, alongside an additional £5 million for infrastructure projects in the region.73/ £85 million for the Borderlands Growth Deal - £20 million more than the UK government.74/ By the end of 2021 we will have committed £1 billion to tackling fuel poverty, and over one million energy efficiency measures have already been installed in almost one million households across Scotland.75/ Our reforms to Land and Buildings Transaction Tax mean that more than 80% of taxpayers either paid less tax compared to Stamp Duty Land Tax or no tax at all.76/ We are establishing a Scottish National Investment Bank, with funds for pre-cursor activities of £130 million.77/ Public sector procurement has been simplified, with more small and medium-sized enterprises now competing for and winning public sector contracts.78/ Scotland's tourism industry is going from strength to strength - spending by tourists in Scotland generates around £12 billion, and in 2015 the tourism industry accounted for around 8.5% of employment in Scotland.79/ We have established innovation and Investment Hubs in London, Brussels, Dublin, Berlin and Paris.80/ We have introduced a new £50 million fund for regenerating run down high streets.81/ We are providing support for our manufacturing sector - £48 million for the National Manufacturing Institute to deliver benefits for companies of all sizes in sectors across Scotland.82/ We are investing a further £60 million to deliver innovative low carbon energy solutions, such as electricity storage and sustainable heating systems - to improve energy efficiency as we look to a low carbon future.83/ We have begun delivering new and improved social security benefits through Social Security Scotland, the first new Scottish public service since devolution.Our mission is to bring a new culture of fairness, dignity and respect to Scottish social security.84/ £226 carers allowance paid twice yearly to over 77,000 carers.85/ Best Start baby grant paid to over 7,000 families - £600 on the birth of a first child, and £300 on the birth of any siblings. From 2019, low income families will get a further £250 when their child starts nursery, and the same again when their child starts school.86/ We have delivered more than 82,000 affordable homes since 2007, including 55,920 for social rent.87/ Scotland's same-sex marriage legislation is widely considered to be one of the most progressive equal marriage laws in the world.88/ Scotland is best in Europe, second only to Malta ???? for LGBTI ?????? equality and human rights.89/ We introduced the first gender-balanced Cabinet in the UK, one of only a handful of gender parity cabinets around the world.90/ In 2011, we became the first government in the UK to pay the real Living Wage to our staff, including all NHS workers.We have now extended the real Living Wage to all adult social care workers.91/ We have mitigated the Bedroom Tax, protecting over 70,000 Scottish households from the charge.92/ We have introduced a Fair Work Action Plan to support employers to embed fairer working practices.93/ Over 316,000 low income households in crisis have been helped to buy essentials such as nappies, food and cookers through our Scottish Welfare Fund since it was established in 2013.94/ We are investing £50 million to support the delivery of our Ending Homelessness Together action plan.95/ We have passed a Child Poverty Act that set targets to end child poverty by 2030, and introduced a new £50 million fund to tackle poverty at a grassroots level.96/ We've kept Scottish Water in public hands.Customers pay less for a better service in Scotland - saving £46 on average compared to the privatised services in England and Wales.97/ We have introduced the Scottish Government's first Gender Pay Gap Action Plan, with steps to tackle gender discrimination and inequalities in the workplace.98/ We are investing an extra £5 million over the next three years to support around 2,000 women to return to work after career breaks.99/ Almost 600 companies have signed the Scottish Business Pledge - a voluntary code for companies to commit to policies that boost productivity, recognise fairness and increase diversity.100/ A 300,000 Sports Equality Fund has benefited 14 projects with the aim of increasing women's engagement in sport.101/ Councils have been enabled to build new homes for the first time in years - with 10,943 council homes delivered since 2007.102/ We have passed a new law requiring public bodies to work towards gender balance on their boards - the only part of the UK with such a statutory objective.103/ 15,500 social houses for rent have been safeguarded by ending Right to Buy.104/ Last year, almost half a million households were supported by Scotland's Council Tax Reduction scheme.105/ We have safeguarded the rights of 2,600 of the most severely disabled by establishing the Scottish Independent Living Fund.106/ Since 2007, more than 28,000 households have been supported into affordable home ownership through our help to buy scheme.107/ We are helping first-time buyers get on the property ladder by lending them a chunk of their deposit. The new £150 million scheme provides loans of up to £25,000 to those who have managed to save up to 5% of the value of their first home.108/ Since taking office, recorded crime is down 42% in Scotland - this is the lowest level ever estimated by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey.109/ We are protecting the police revenue budget in real terms - delivering an additional £100 million of investment over the course of this parliament.110/ Police forces in England and Wales have lost more than 20,000 officers over the last decade.In Scotland, officer numbers have increased significantly since the SNP came into power.111/ We have invested more than £17 million in violence prevention since 2007.112/ Violent crime is down by 46%, and property crime by 41% since we took office.113/ The Scottish Crime Campus provides a focal point for excellence in intelligence-sharing, evidence gathering and forensic science to tackle serious organised crime.114/ Automatic early release has been ended, meaning that long-term prisoners who pose an unacceptable risk to public safety will serve their sentence in full115/ The reconviction rate has been reduced to its lowest level in 19 years, thanks to tough community sentences116/ Since 2008, £92 million has been seized from criminals and has been reinvested in community projects for young people across Scotland117/ We've introduced the world leading Domestic Abuse Act that makes psychological domestic abuse and controlling behaviour a crime118/ HMP Low Moss opened in March 2012 & HMP Grampian opened in March 2014, two major parts of our prison building programme.119/ Since 2012, we've invested record funding of £13.5 million to support anti-sectarian education in schools, prisons, workplaces & communities120/ The new Scottish Fire and Rescue Service has been created.121/ We have made the sharing of so-called 'revenge porn' a specific criminal offence, carrying a maximum penalty of five years imprisonment.122/ Scotland has the UK's first national action plan on human rights, showing our ambition to be an example of how to realise human rights and tackle injustice at home and abroad.123/ We have introduced a Bill to the Scottish Parliament to raise the minimum age a child can be held criminally responsible from eight to 12, keeping children out of the court system and reinforcing Scotland's commitment to international human rights standards.124/ We have doubled the walking and cycling budget to £80 million per year.125/ We delivered the £1.35 billion marvel on the Forth - the Queensferry Crossing.126/ We've connected Glasgow to Edinburgh with continuous motorway for the first time.127/ We scrapped bridge tolls on the Forth and Tay crossings - saving individual commuters around £2,280 to date.128/ £8 billion has been invested in our rail infrastructure since 2007.129/ We delivered the Borders Railway, the longest new domestic railway to be built in Britain in over 100 years. 4 million passengers have used the service to date.130/ Our £5 billion investment programme in Scotland's railways will deliver longer, greener trains, new stations, new track upgrades, more seats, and more services.131/ The first section - between Kincraig and Dalraddy - of our £3 billion project to dual the A9 from Perth to Inverness has been completed.132/ The £745 million Aberdeen By-pass opened in February 2019, cutting the 36-mile journey time by half.133/ In the South of Scotland we're taking forward the construction of the Maybole bypass on the A77, making further improvements to the A75 and exploring how to better connect Dumfries and the M74.134/ Scotland has now achieved 95% fibre broadband coverage - and we'll reach 100% superfast coverage by 2021.135/We have demonstrated global leadership on climate change, and were the first part of the UK to declare a 'climate emergency'136/ Scotland is to target net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, by far the toughest statutory target in the world.137/ Scotland outperforms the UK as a whole in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Only Sweden ???? has achieved greater reduction in Western Europe.138/ Renewable energy generation in Scotland reached record levels in 2018, providing the equivalent of 75% of gross electricity consumption.139/ In 2016, our low carbon and renewable energy sector supported 49,000 jobs and generated £11 billion in turnover.140/ No fracking and other unconventional oil and gas activity can take place in Scotland.141/ We are on track to achieve our target of recycling 70% of all waste by 2025.142/ Scotland was one of the first countries to commit to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.143/ Carrier bag use was reduced by 80% - the equivalent of 650 million bags - in the first year of the carrier bag charge.144/ We have passed a law to ban the use of wild animals in travelling circuses in Scotland.145/ We've helped make our communities safer from flooding with investment in flood defences and new measures in the Flooding Act.Since 2008, we have made £42 million available each year to help local authorities invest in flood protection measures.146/ By 2021, £21 million will have been distributed through the world-leading Climate Justice Fund, which is now supporting projects in Malawi ???? Zambia ???? and Rwanda ????147/ We are ensuring the clean, green status of our valuable food and drink sector is protected by opting out of the cultivation of genetically modified crops.148/ We passed a law to fully devolve forestry to Scotland, helping us make more effective use of Scotland's land.149/ We are introducing Low Emissions Zones in our four largest cities by 2020 to improve urban air quality.150/ We invest £20 million per year in support of animal health and welfare.151/ In 2017/18, Scotland created 78% of all new woodland in the UK, and we are on track to meet our target of creating 15,000 hectares per year from 2024/25.152/ Scotland's Natural Capital Accounts estimate that Scotland's natural capital is valued at over £273 billion - 34% of the UK figure.153/ Scotland's independence referendum was the biggest democratic exercise in Scotland's history - with a turnout of 85% of all electors.154/ 16 and 17 year olds now have the right to vote in Scottish Parliament and local government elections.155/ We launched a £200,000 Access to Politics Fund to help disabled people stand for the 2017 local government elections - continuing the fund for the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021.156/ Local communities have been given a voice in the planning and delivery of local services - backed up by an annual £20 million of funding - through the Community Empowerment Act.157/ The Scottish Land Fund has already helped over 100 communities across the country to purchase land.158/ The radical and ambitious Land Reform Act has been passed to transform rules around the ownership, accessibility and benefits of land in Scotland.159/ A record £1 billion has been invested in vessels, ports and ferry services since 2007 as part of our commitment to our islands and remote communities.160/ We introduced and are implementing Scotland's first ever Islands Act to help our island communities thrive.161/ Road Equivalent Tariff has been rolled out to all ferry routes in the Clyde and Hebrides network, delivering significantly reduced ferry fares and the highest passenger numbers since 1997.162/ Residents of Caithness and north-west Sutherland, Colonsay, Islay, Jura, Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles are eligible for a 50% discount on air fares.163/ With produce output worth around £2.3 billion a year and around 65,000 people directly employed, we work tirelessly to get the best deal for Scotland's farmers, crofters and growers.164/ We are legislating to create a new South of Scotland Enterprise Agency to support businesses, jobs, economic growth and skills in the region.165/ With food and drink worth almost £6 billion in 2017 and 14,000 new jobs estimated to be created in the sector by 2020, we strive to promote Scotland's top quality produce.166/ Through funding from the EU and the Scottish Government, we are investing over £92 million in our fisheries fleet, in harbours, equipment and facilities.167/ The clean, green status of our valuable food and drink sector has been protected by opting out of the cultivation of genetically modified crops in Scotland.168/ Scotland's first National Marine Plan aims to achieve the sustainable development of our seas.169/ We are investing £6 million in a Rural Tourism Infrastructure Fund to help ensure the services and facilities tourists and communities need are provided.170/ To support the building of new affordable housing in island communities, we are investing £5 million in an Islands Housing Fund.171/ We have published a new National Forestry Strategy and invested over £20 million to plant trees on Scotland's national forests.172/ In 2018/19, we invested nearly £118 million to help grow Scotland's food and drink sector - supporting production, marketing, promotion, collaboration, research and innovation.173/ We are investing almost £270 million in Scotland's culture and heritage.174/ Free access has been maintained to our national museums and galleries, which now welcome over five million visitors every year.175/ We have provided £21 million investment in Edinburgh's major festivals since 2008, and have now opened up funding to Glasgow's Celtic Connections.176/ Following the success of the Commonwealth Games and Ryder Cup in 2014, we are ensuring Scotland is on the centre stage for major events, providing funding for the European Championships in 2018, the Solheim Cup 2019, and the UEFA Euro 2020.177/ We invested £38 million in the construction of the world-class V&A Museum of Design in Dundee which opened in 2018.We are investing an additional £1 million a year for the next 10 years to ensure it reaches its full potential.178/ Glasgow will host the inaugural UCI Cycling World Championships in 2023 - reaffirming Scotland's place as a world leader for major events.179/ Over 900 schools and nurseries take part in the 'Daily Mile' challenge.We want Scotland to become the first 'Daily Mile Nation', with all nurseries and schools plus colleges, universities and workplaces involved across the country.180/ 99% of primary and secondary schools across Scotland are now providing two hours of physical education a week - up from just 10% in 2005.181/ Since 2007 our screen sector has gone from strength to strength and production spend in Scotland has increased by 200%.182/ We have invested £20 million to support the establishment of Screen Scotland - a dedicated unit for film and television - and funded the establishment of a National Film & Television School for Scotland in Glasgow.183/ We have improved the supporting infrastructure for sport in Scotland, including investing £24 million in the National Sports Performance Centre, Oriam.184/ We are committed to supporting MG Alba, which operates BBC Alba and receives £12.8 million a year from the Scottish Government.2/ Childcare - 600* hours of early learning and childcare, saving families up to £2,500 per child per year.A Healthier ScotlandA Smarter ScotlandA Wealthier ScotlandA Fairer ScotlandA Safer ScotlandInvesting for the FutureA Greener ScotlandEmpowering CommunitiesSupporting Rural & Island CommunitiesEnabling Creativity & Sport'Stronger For Scotland'

1 IntroductionThe most important aspect of any new understanding is whether it empowers people to do things which could not be done previously.Shimomuran-Wernerian macroeconomics is just such an understanding, becauseIt empowers governments, in co-operation with the energies of their people, rapidly to increase the rate of economic growth by co-ordinated actionIt creates widespread prosperity of the people of a country by creating a high-growth economic miracle and producing within a few decades a more fully developed modern economy which laissez-faire economics has taken centuries to produceIt enables, through capital abundance, the more rapid resolution of major world problems such as poverty, global warming, and inadequate social provision and infrastructureIt ignites the inventive and innovative capabilities of mankind wherever it is fully practicedIt leads to a world of "abundant capital" and may be the key to the starsBUTIt requires that all governments act in the interests of all their people and not mainly for their ruling class or monied elite (which is mainly what they do in the West)It requires long-term, creative and competent governments to act altruistically (as the greatest geniuses of the human race have usually done) both within their economy and internationallyIt requires major international co-operation to avoid the runaway disasters which can result as a largely unintended side effect of high economic growth and new understandingsIn short, greater economic understanding requires governments to exercise greater responsibility and higher practical knowledge with altruism, in a co-ordinated international approach to deal with major world problems competently and constructively.This is more fully set out below.1.1 Definition of The Three Major Dimensions Of Wernerian-Shimomuran MacroeconomicsThere are three major dimensions to that new understanding, because it is:A realistic, practical economics based upon a detailed, meticulous historical observation of the recorded resulting higher economic growth in a dozen locationsBased upon parts of the writings of the six major master economists (Wang Anshi (1021-1086), John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), Joseph A Schumpeter (1883-1950) Dr Osamu Shimomura (1910-89), Kenneth K Kurihara (1910-72), and Richard Werner (1967-? )An inclusive system of interlocking policies reflecting the more complete range of policy options available to governments, andA recognition of the position of individual invention and the role of Small Business Enterprise innovations as the major source of future economic development in all economies.So this Shimomuran-Wernerian macroeconomics is a realistic understanding, belonging to the German Historical school of economics, and is a complete system, not only founded upon the capability of the central bank of a nation to create credit but encompassing all the ways that credit can be focused, allocated and used, and acknowledges and includes the role of Schumpeterian invention and innovation in SMEs as the source of economic progress in all economies. Like this:https://georgetaitedwards.quora.com/The-Most-Successful-Economic-Policy-Of-All-Time-The-German-Historical-Economics-Development-of-Shimomuran-Wernerian1.2 CaveatsThe following paragraphs set out the major historical observations, and briefly indicates the role of master economists in explaining these, the range of policy options this new economics makes possible, and the local sources of invention and innovation as illustrated by history.Finally the rise of China and the new possibilities for effective international action to upgrade the world's future is suggested.The range of this discussion is inevitably incomplete due to the scale of the issues under consideration.The reader is invited to dig deeper into the quoted sources and elsewhere to examine the foundations of this essay. I may quote wherever possible the best book I know about each particular economic miracle, but many such texts may exist, often not in English.This essay is a result of my ongoing studies at the University of Southampton where the agreed focus of my research is "the integration of Shimomuran macroeconomics with Wernerian macroeconomics." It is a "story so far" rather than a “final definitive text" which I hope to produce to the best of my ability within a further two years or so.Eight previous attempts partially to answer this question are atGeorge Tait Edwards's answer to What should everyone know about Japanese history?George Tait Edwards's answer to What did China get right in its economic and social development which the US got wrong?George Tait Edwards's answer to What kind of economic system does modern China use and how does it differ from the modern US economy?George Tait Edwards's answer to What makes a GDP grow high or stay high?https://www.quora.com/Is-China-the-best-example-of-world-economic-growth/answer/George-Tait-Edwardshttps://www.quora.com/How-is-the-future-of-economics/answer/George-Tait-Edwardshttps://www.quora.com/What-is-Shimomuran-economics/answer/George-Tait-Edwardshttps://www.quora.com/What-is-the-hypothetical-scenario-of-the-highest-possible-world-GDP/answer/George-Tait-EdwardsI have stopped at eight articles but there are seven relevant books and over 350 relevant articles, with perhaps another three or four books and a hundred articles on the way.1.3 The Insight of Kurt Godel (1906-1978)Perhaps the greatest insight of Kurt Godel was that all intellectual systems are either inconsistent or incomplete.See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Gödel#Incompleteness_TheoremExperience shows repeatedly that historical reality often produces unintended consequences, particularly when the elite of any country rule that nation only in their interests. Those who do not learn the difficult, sometimes negative but often positive lessons of economic history are usually condemned to play a smaller part in it in future. As Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Perigord observed"History teaches nothing, only punishes those who do not learn its lessons."After over 46 years of private economic research by me and often others, I am keenly aware of the occasional inconsistencies and continuing incompleteness of my understandings. All research covers a continually widening range and is inevitably incomplete particularly when it is summarised.1.4 Why is this Macroeconomics called Shimomuran-Wernerian?This new economics is Shimomuran - because it is based upon the no-cost investment credit creation policies explained by Dr Osamu Shimomura (1910–1989) and practised to produce the economic miracles in the Tokyo Consensus Zone economies (Japan,South Korea,Taiwan and China) and Wernerian because“The prime requirement for continual economic development is the existence of a local (preferably public) banking system which funds the establishment, development and growth of the SMEs which are everywhere the source of the continual invention, innovation, most employment, and better living standards on which economic development depends.” That’s the central theme of Wernerian macroeconomics. Only Germany and to a lesser extent China has such a system. SeeWhat makes a GDP grow high or stay high? andGerman public bank - Wikipedia”and see George Tait Edwards's answer to Is Democracy a prerequisite for economic growth or is economic growth a prerequisite for Democracy? where the above quote originates.2 The Historical Evidence About Economic DevelopmentThis section will list the twelve major historical economic miracles and will encapsulate these tremendous events in very few words. The interested reader is invited to dig deeper into the references quoted and other sources to discover the ever-widening context of the reality of these economic miracles.Modern Western macroeconomics generally does not recognise the importance of the banking systems and money and the use of credit and promissory notes in the process of bringing about rapid economic development. Since money and credit (and all banknotes are promissory notes) is central to the production of economic miracles, there is a hole at the heart of modern Western economics. Major surgery is required to place money and particularly investment credit creation at the heart of Western economic understanding where it belongs.2.1 The First Industrial Revolution in the Song and Ming Chinese EmpiresAfter the Chinese invention of paper money in the 9th century, the Chinese economy exploded into a fuller employment mass production economy in the 11th century Song Empire under the Prime Minister of Wang Anshi and his friend the Emperor Shenzong. See part 2 ofhttps://www.quora.com/What-are-major-Chinese-innovations/answer/George-Tait-EdwardsWhere the role of Wang Anshi is more fully set out. And see the Wikipedia entry on the Song Dynasty (960-1279) atEconomy of the Song dynasty - Wikipediawhich begins"For over three centuries during the Song dynasty (960–1279) China experienced sustained growth in per capita income and population, structural change in the economy, and increased pace of technological innovation. Movable print, improved seeds for rice and other commercial crops, gunpowder, water-powered mechanical clocks, the use of coal as a source of fuel for a variety of industries, improved techniques for iron and steel production, pound locks and many other technological innovations transformed the economy. In north China, the main fuel source for ceramic kilns and iron furnaces shifted from wood to coal.During the Song dynasty, there was also a notable increase in commercial contacts with global markets. Merchants engaged in overseas trade through investments in trading vessels and trade which reached ports as far away as East Africa. This period also witnessed the development of the world's first banknote, or printed paper money (see Jiaozi, Guanzi, Huizi), which circulated on a massive scale. Combined with a unified tax system and efficient trade routes by road and canal, this meant the development of a truly nationwide market. Regional specialization promoted economic efficiency and increased productivity. Although much of the central government's treasury went to the military, taxes imposed on the rising commercial base refilled the coffers and further encouraged the monetary economy.[1] Reformers and conservatives debated the role of government in the economy. The emperor and his government still took responsibility for the economy, but generally made fewer claims than in earlier dynasties. The government did, however, continue to enforce monopolies on certain manufactured items and market goods to boost revenues and secure resources that were vital to the empire's security, such as tea, salt, and chemical components for gunpowder.These changes made China a global leader, leading some historians to call this an "early modern" economy many centuries before Western Europe made its breakthrough. Many of these economic gains were lost, however, in the succeeding Yuan dynasty."The Mongols had no idea about how to use created credit for positive productive purposes but created credit for their own consumption and produced the massive inflation which partly led to the fall of their Chinese dynasty. The Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368) refused to allow the Han Chinese to learn Mongolian and their major (or minor) legacy to Chinese culture is in the name now given to Chinese currency. Ashttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ming_dynasty puts it"Explanations for the demise of the Yuan include institutionalized ethnic discrimination against Han Chinese that stirred resentment and rebellion, overtaxation of areas hard-hit by inflation, and massive flooding of the Yellow River as a result of the abandonment of irrigation projects.[8]"The succeeding Great Ming Empire (1358-1644) understood productive credit creation during the years of the Ming Treasure voyages (1405-1433). SeeMing treasure voyages - WikipediaThe rise of the elite-serving Conservatives in China led to the contraction of the Ming Empire after the death of the Yongle Emperor in 1424. And as I say at"As The Ming Voyages | Asia for Educators | Columbia University records under the heading “The Fateful Decision”“The Ming court was divided into many factions, most sharply into the pro-expansionist voices led by the powerful eunuch factions that had been responsible for the policies supporting Zheng Ho's voyages, and more traditional conservative Confucian court advisers who argued for frugality. When another seafaring voyage was suggested to the court in 1477, the vice president of the Ministry of War confiscated all of Zheng He's records in the archives, damning them as "deceitful exaggerations of bizarre things far removed from the testimony of people's eyes and ears." He argued that "the expeditions of San Bao [meaning "Three Jewels," as Zheng He was called] to the West Ocean wasted tens of myriads of money and grain and moreover the people who met their deaths may be counted in the myriads. Although he returned with wonderful precious things, what benefit was it to the state?"Linked to eunuch politics and wasteful policies, the voyages were over. By the century's end, ships could not be built with more than two masts, and in 1525 the government ordered the destruction of all oceangoing ships. The greatest navy in history, which once had 3,500 ships (the U.S. Navy today has only 324), was gone.”The Great Zheng He Fleets could have formed the foundation of the Sea Silk Road covering almost precisely the same sea “road” routes of the modern OBOR development. China had the option of becoming the world-leading hegemony based on its industrial strength and the high levels of wealth and welfare of its people soundly based upon the towering levels of invention and innovation in its people. The dominance of China's Conservatives resulted in the destruction of their great navy and Chinese decline."That history has recently repeated itself in the decline of the UK navy, once the most powerful in the world, under "Conservative" policies and the reduction in funding of the US Navy under the the Republicans. And in the decline of the British and American hegemonies in the 20th century which accelerated after 1980 when, under Thatcher and Reagan leadership, rule for the benefit of the rich was installed in both of these countries.2.2 The Dutch as a Major Colonial PowerThe small country of Holland (now known as the Netherlands) became a major world power through the creation of credit targeted at funding overseas shipping ventures to trade and colonise many locations all over the world.What the Dutch did is one of the least well recorded triumphs of the successful use of investment credit creation in the foundation of a vast Empire. Because the victors write the histories, the place of the Dutch Empire and its enormous success is either ignored or more usually relegated to a footnote of most Westernised world history books written in English. But see the Wikipedia entry athttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Empirewhich does quote 98 sources and 16 books. (The Wikipedia entry on the now defunct larger British Empire, for comparison, quotes 247 sources and hundreds of book references.)One exception to the above comment is the recent book by Noah Harari which describes the Dutch Empire and its enabling major company, on pages 359-363, which begins with"The Netherlands was a small and windy swamp, devoid of natural resources, a small corner of the King of Spain's dominions." and on the same page"The secret of Dutch success was credit." And on the next page:"Financiers extended the Dutch enough credit to set up armies and fleets and these armies and fleets gave the Dutch the control world trade routes which yielded handsome profits."See Yuval Noah Harari, Sapiens, A Brief History of Humankind, Penguin Random House,London 2011.2.3 Three of the The American Colonies Three of the original colonies of what became the USA - Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina - grew to be very prosperous on the back of the slave trade which was founded on the basis of Tobacco Lord promissory notes. These notes, monetised in relation to pounds of tobacco and backed by the provision of goods in the 125 Tobacco Lord shops, became the most stable alternative currency in these colonies. These IOUs cost the Tobacco Lords nothing to create yet the use of these notes as currency - to buy slaves, wives, settle debts, act as a store of value and medium of exchange - was the major reason for the immense early development of these three colonies. I have not yet researched this issue adequately, but a paper on this issue is the first in my PhD and I cannot publish here the results so far of my researches without prejudicing my academic studies.One of the major driving factors behind the American Declaration of Independence might have been the wish of at least two the signatories of that document to repudiate Tobacco Lord loans. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson had large tobacco farms with loans to match.In much of history there is often the political cover story imbued with high ideals and a more financial foundation of the advantage conferred to individuals or groups by legal or constitutional changes. So it is with the USA. Of course, the US historians do not wish their founding fathers to be besmirched, as they may see it, by money motives. But whatever the motivational foundation of the brilliantly written US Declaration of Independence, the financial facts are beyond dispute.The repudiation of the Tobacco Lord loans was a great advantage to the largest tobacco farmers but it ruined the tobacco industry for the majority of its farmers. It is often thus.2.4 The First Western Industrial Revolution In Scotland 1700-1800 The Tobacco Lords used their money to establish the first banks in Scotland, led by the almost undocumented Murdoch Bank in Glasgow in 1730, and to fund the early ground-breaking commercial companies in Scotland. A complete list of all of these companies may be difficult to determine, but the data in Tom Devine's book has provided me with this list:Source: Calculated by me from:And see The Scottish Industrial Revolution, or The Scottish First Industrial Miracle 1700–18002.5 The English Industrial Revolution 1750-1880 The earliest part of the English industrial revolution was the smuggling prior to 1750 of a large amount of hogsheads of tobacco into Scotland via Whitehaven in the English Lake District (now called Cumbria).The English Industrial revolution was driven by three major circumstancesthe massive inventiveness of the Scots, who for centuries had (and still have) a much better educational system than that of England and Wales and which led to the development by James Watt of a much more effective (six times more efficient) steam engine, which was the major driver of the first (steam engine) and second (railway era) Kondriatieff Cyclesthe permissive parliamentary framework of new local "Country Bank" creation as illustrated by the fact that there were 116 Country Bankers who were Members of Parliament- see pages 179-82 of Volume 2 of Country Banks of England and Wales, Privatre Provincial Banks and Bankers, 1688-1933, Margaret Dawes and CN Ward-Perkins, which names the MPs and the town banks in which they were involved. Here's page 179 naming some of these MP bankers:the easy creation by industrialists of local private SME-supporting "Country Banks of England and Wales" which provided the funding of local invention and its conversion to factory-floor innovation by means of an 1810 Stamp Office License (costing £20) "Banker's Licence in England" purchased at the Post OfficeSource: R.M Fitzmaurice, British Banks And Banking.a pictorial history, D Bradford Barton Ltd, Truro,Cornwall, 1975, p55.Any company wishing to issue its own banknotes could pay £20 for that privilege and could legally do so. It is a sobering reflection that this system led to Britain becoming the workshop of the world due to the local funding of local industry. No such system exists today - the restrictive legal requirements imposed by the BoE prevent any such banks now being founded in England.Where the local Country Banks of England and Wales were located looks like this:Source: Margaret Dawes and C N Ward-Perkins, Op. Cit., p 12. For a list of defunct banks in the United Kingdom seeCategory:Defunct banks of the United Kingdom - WikipediaA modern map of major “English”banks would show five dots in London. The decline of the UK is intimately linked to the lack of local financial support for small SMEs. The last "Country" (or Provincial) bank in Scotland, the Airdrie Savings Bank (1835-2017) was shut down partly due to (BoE) "increasing cost of regulation."See Airdrie Savings Bank - WikipediaSME-supporting Savings Bank legislation is positive and helpful to German public savings banks but wholly negative in the UK where the BoE supports the Clearing Banks. The Scots under the 1996 LA reorganisation have established eleven Municipal Banks in Scotland. SeeMunicipal bankingThese municipal banks are located in Airdrie, Bellshill and Coatbridge (where the late Airdrie Bank had branches and previously operated) and in Cumbernauld, Kilsyth, Moodlesburn, Motherwell, Norh Lanarkshire, Shotts, Viewpark, and Wishaw and these banks cover the Glasgow-centred area of major operation of the previous Glaswegian Tobacco Lords. This may be a coincidence, but maybe not.The later inventions of the Scots includedthe electromagnetic understandings of James Clerk Maxwell which led to the the third Kondratieff cycle of electrical power provision and generation (and Westinghouse/Tesla AC distribution in the USA)the invention of television by James Baird (and his early experiments with radar)the invention of the telephone by the Scottish-Born James Bell and the massive telecommunications industries based upon that.2.6 Germany 1778 and 1802-2018Probably from observation of how local banks in Great Britain stimulated local SME development, Germany's Sparkassen public banking system was set up and grew in independent public bank numbers from 630 in 1850 to 2,834 in 1903. As Wikipedia reports athttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_public_bank"The first savings banks in Germany were founded at the beginning of the 18th century in its major trading cities. One of the first institutions with the business model of modern savings banks was the Ersparungscasse der Hamburgischen Allgemeinen Versorgungsanstalt in Hamburg in 1778. Founders were rich merchants, clerks and academics. They intended to develop solutions for people with low income to save small sums of money and to support business start-ups.[14] In 1801 the first savings bank with a municipal guarantor was founded in Göttingen to fight poverty.[15] Between 1850 and 1903 the idea of the municipal savings banks spread and the number of savings banks in Germany increased from 630 to 2834.[16] Fulfilling public interests is still one of the most significant characteristics of public banks in general and the savings banks in particular."These purposes continue to be delivered to the present day, and although the number of Sparkassen Savings Banks has fallen to 431 the number of bank branches has grown to 15,600.The German Sparkassen Banking system is the most effective in the world at funding the establishment and growth of German SME industry.Here’s where these 431 banks and 15,600 branches are located in Germany:And they have produced the result thatAnd Hermann Kahn, a German author, has suggested that result is produced because Germany has about 50% of the “Hidden Champions”in the world:See Hermann Simon, Hidden Champions of the 21st Century, atThe Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders: Amazon.co.uk: Hermann Simon: 9780387981468: BooksBecause Germany understands and practices a Sparkassen Public Banking System which encourages invention and its conversion to factory-floor innovation, Germany dominates the EU. But Germany’s “Hidden Champions” only grow to medium size. Germany does not practice Shimomuran economics, so many of its best champions become continental leaders within the EU but not world champions.In 1985 I tried to interest the German politicians in Shimomuran macroeconomics. One representative of the Anglo-German Foundation advised me then that Germany had no need of any Asian understanding of how to facilitate higher economic growth.2.7- 2.12 Other Economic MiraclesThe followIng economic miracles have been briefly covered atGeorge Tait Edwards's answer to What should everyone know about Japanese history? and athttps://georgetaitedwards.quora.com/The-Most-Successful-Economic-Policy-Of-All-Time-The-German-Historical-Economics-Development-of-Shimomuran-Wernerianalso quoted above.The circumstances of these economic miracles are therefore mentioned as relevant but not repeated in detail here. Relevant books are listed in the sources, except for these by Alice Hoffenberg Amsden (1943-2012) who authored one major book and co-authored another as listed at 2.10 and 2.11 below2.7 The South Manchurian Railway Company 1905-19452.8 FDR's Economic Miracle 1938-442.9 The Japanese Economic Miracle 1945-52 and 1953-732.10 The South Korean Economic Miracle 1960-80 (also see the brilliant book by Alice Hoffenberg Amsden (1943-2012) See Asia's Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization, Oxford University Press, 1989.2.11 The Taiwanese Economic Miracle - also see Alice Amsden's book Beyond Late Development: Taiwan's Upgrading Policies, MIT Press, 2003, (with Wan Wen Chu).2.12 The Chinese Economic Miracle 1975-2018 See http://londonprogressivejournal.com/article/view/1620/the-historical-backdrop-to-the-third-economic-bomb-a-brief-guide-to-early-chinese-history-the-land-and-the-people-and-the-first-emperorand A Brief Guide To Early Chinese History: The Mongol Conquest Of China And Its Consequencesand China’s All-Inclusive Economic Miracle: The Third Economic BombParticularly from the section beginning“Chinese ICC development is more complete and on a broader front than Japan’s”which states that“The Chinese have used and are using Shimomuran economics to transform every aspect of China’s economy, given that the national income of a country is the sum of consumer, investment and government expenditure. The successive Chinese Governments have sought to maximise consumer, investment and government expenditure within achievable limits, and to increase each demand sector by the highest amount each year. That policy is entirely different from the Japanese Shimomuran policy of focused industrial growth (or “Economic Growth First”) based upon private-growth company-centred (eg machine tools, shipping) and consumer-goods-centred development for the sake of acquiring a trading advantage. The Chinese development focus is on the full development of all sectors of the economy, increasing the investment capacity of the country to provide for higher consumer demand, better housing, and higher government expenditure. Planning is on a giant and unprecedented scale - not only city construction but city-copying in China - and nothing required for the better functioning of the economy is left out of that development.Official Chinese data does not fully reflect the level of Chinese investment. As the CIA World Factbook comments:“official data; data cover both central government debt and local government debt, which China's National Audit Office estimated at RMB 10.72 trillion (approximately US$1.66 trillion) in 2011; data exclude policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, China Asset Management Company debt, and non-performing loans.”’and George Tait Edwards's answer to Why is China more outstanding in its economic growth than a having political figures like in Europe and the US?3 Brief Comments on The Significance of Six Major Economists3.1 Wang Anshi (1021-1086)Wang Anshi was the first investment credit economist whose understandings enabled the economic miracles of the Song and Ming Empires. SeeGeorge Tait Edwards's answer to How did Wang Anshi contribute to the economic world?and note the role of Wang Anshi as set out in Section 2.1 above3.2 John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)John Maynard Keynes in his writings produced the three major insights which are the foundation of investment credit economics.The first is in what is usually called the General Theory.“While there are intrinsic reasons for the shortage of land, there are no intrinsic reasons for the shortage of capital” (Book 6, Chapter 24, Section 2, p. 376).The second great insight was his statement that savings can be created to fund investment prior to the returns which justify them.And the third is that“Central Banks can purchase no-debt assets by making claims against themselves - In the “Tract on Monetary Reform”, Keynes recognised that a Central Bank “may itself purchase assets, i.e. add to its investments, and pay for them, in the first instance at least, by establishing a claim against itself” (Keynes, 1923).”See Shimomuran Economics and the Rise of Japan and ChinaKeynes did not see the possibility that the Central Bank could create vast flows of investment credit annually, canalising that credit to enterprises through local banks and producing very high rates of economic growth. The Asian Keynesian who became the Asian Keynes - Dr Osamu Shimomura - made that observation the central pillar of his explanation about how to produce higher investment and growth in his Economic Model of the Japanese Economy.3.3 Joseph A Schumpeter (1883-1950)As Joseph Schumpeter - Wikipedia comments“Schumpeter identified innovation as the critical dimension of economic change.[35] He argued that economic change revolves around innovation, entrepreneurial activities, and market power. He sought to prove that innovation-originated market power can provide better results than the invisible hand and price competition. He argued that technological innovation often creates temporary monopolies, allowing abnormal profits that would soon be competed away by rivals and imitators.”Schumpeter made the crucial distinction between the inventor and the innovator, who took that invention to the factory floor and sold the products.3.4 Dr Osamu Shimomura (1910-89)I have written so much about this master economist that I find it difficult to select relevant published articles, because my books are best. But seeThe Master Economist – George Tait Edwards – Mediumand the Gresham College slides athttps://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/content.gresham.ac.uk/data/binary/260/03mar15longfinance_georgetaitedwardsfinal.pdfandhttp://londonprogressivejournal.com/article/view/1566/the-origin-of-shimomuras-japanese-economic-miracle-or-the-second-economic-bomb-japan-from-to-economic-miracles-partandDr Osamu Shimomura (1910–89) — His Major AchievementsandShimomuran Economics is the Most Significant Advance Ever Made in Economic Understanding and the…3.5 Kenneth K Kurihara (1910-72)Kenneth Kenkichi Kurihara was born in 1910 in Kuchan, Hokkaido, Japan but immigrated to the USA where he worked for the US Government, became a noted growth economist and in turn Professor of Economics at Princeton University, Rutgers University and the State University of New York. SeeKenneth K. Kurihara - WikipediaHis insights into how Shimomuran macroeconomics propelled the rapid development of Japan were largely ignored by US and Western economists. Seehttps://medium.com/@georgetaitedwards/the-key-relevance-of-the-writings-of-professor-kenneth-kenkichi-kurihara-the-world-expert-on-high-99d1f80e1733. 6 Richard Werner (1967-? ) Richard Werner has not simply postulated that increases in investment credit cause economic growth, he has used the recently invented technique of Granger Predictive Causation analysis to show that annual increases in investment credit at the Bank of Japan is a leading “Granger Predictive Indicator” of subsequent Japanese economic growth. And he has used the same technique of Granger Predictive Causation analysis to show that increases in speculative credit at the Bank of Japan is a leading “Granger Predictive Indicator” of subsequent asset bubble growth in Japan.4 The New Capabilities of China4.1 Large Capital Investment Projects The full practice of Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics enables very large and historically unprecedented capital investments successfully to be made. Of course, we can only clearly see the first of these, but there are many other potential international projects which can be Chinese led. Some of these projects are essential to the future of the world.4.2 The Associated Scientific Advantages Emerging from The Chinese and the World Rennaissance In addition to these greater capital projects, there are likely to be advances in scientific understanding that will have an immense significance. Some of these are part and parcel of the increased invention and innovation associated with higher local funding of SMEs, but still others will arise spontaneously as the boundless ingenuity of mankind and womankind becomes more activated.By their very nature, these developments are less forecastable. I think these might include the drug stimulation of intellectual development, much more effective mood control drugs, easier genetic modification techniques, and the improvement of the partly developed and developing researches of Professor David Andrew Sinclair about life extension and health improvement. I cannot fully cover all of these here.4.3 The Actual and Likely Very Large Capital Projects4.3.1 OBOR - a $5tr Project Over 5 YearsSee George Tait Edwards's answer to How will China's One Belt One Road influence urban development in Central Asia? andGeorge Tait Edwards's answer to What is it about the Chinese “One Belt, One Road” initiative (beside the economic aspect of it) that has a lot of European leaders critical of it? One said it threatens western liberalism, for example.There is no genuine comparison between the OBOR project (costing $5tr in all) and the Marshall Plan for the recovery of Europe which would cost about $160bn in current prices. OBOR is monumental: the Marshall Plan, while it was not trivial, was and is not really comparable in scale.OBOR will have a gigantic positive effect on the economies it connects.4.3.2 Reversing Global Warming - A more than $29tr Project over 30 yearsSee The Drawdown Project at DrawdownWhich is one of the best listings of the likely costings of reversing global warming is the list of approximately costed policies which estimate the extent of global CO2 reduction and the net benefits of eighty activities.4.3.3 Educating Willing Nations About Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics - a 30-year programme involving trillions of dollars a yearSee The Chinese have set up a New Structural Economics Department at Peking University under the…which contains the sentences“Needless to say, the Western media as usual has no idea about what is going on.I think the Chinese are going to get round to teaching the Rest of the World (RoW) about how to produce rapid economic growth and I’ve suggested I might possibly lecture there, if they’d have me.”I have so far had no response to my email to Mr P H Yu or from his two colleagues at Beijing University. Perhaps the Chinese during the 2010s are as self-confident about Shimomuran Macroeconomics as the Germans were during the 1980s about Sparkassen Banking economics. We’ll see.The current ($2017 PPP) best estimate of the GDP of the world is c$129 tr. Investment credit economics in the entire world requires CB credit creation of about 10% to 15% of GDP pa for decades. This will produce a final rise in finance of about 20% to 30% pa with the usual 14% to 20% fixed investment plus 6% to 10% of financial liquidity investment and an increase in government incomes of between 5% to 7% of GDP pa. World economic growth would initially increase by about 5% to 8% pa.But these are whole-world figures and what is most likely to happen is the faster development of particular countries.Subtext: The Menu of Economic ChoicesThere is a complex menu of political choices in Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics, both sets of options illustrated on two slides during the Gresham College lectures by me and by Professor Richard Werner. My presentation was headed asand contained Slide 19 which saidWhile Professor Richard Werner’s banner wasAnd his Slide 23 wasThese two slides briefly set out the available choices in the use of credit creation.4.3.3.1 Accelerating India’s Economic Growth RateThe indian Government has recently set up The National Instute For Transforming India, (NITI) headed by Amitabh Kant. That organisation has the objective of increasing India’s growth rate to 10% for the next thirty years.I have tried over several decades to interest India in increasing its rate of economic growth. SeeI agree that India needs to grow rapidly for decades in order to improve the prosperity of its…Maybe the Indians via the NITI are now looking for Answers. I do hope so.4.4 Leading Disaster Recovery - an ongoing $1 to $2tr tr project a YearThe deteriorating weather over much of the world - the emergence of very powerful hurricanes over 300 mile an hour winds in the Atlantic, and the historically unprecedented downpours of very large amounts of rainfall in a few hours in many locations in much of the world - is the natural result of global warming.I calculate about one to two trillion dollars worth a year of property damage is being caused outside the USA by that much worse weather.China could lead and partly fund an international disaster recovery programme, which is sorely needed by many nations.4.5 The Mars Project -Perhaps a $20tr project over 20 yearsThe Americans went to the moon. The Chinese are going to be able to afford to colonise Mars by setting up substantial numbers of colonists in the Martian tunnels.Astronauts previously were all damaged by radiation. Prior to the recent epigenetic advances of Professor David Andrew Sinclair a trip to Mars would kill the astronauts all of whom would be suffering from cancer on arrival.NASA has invested in these epigenetic researches so as to acquire a pill which will protect interplanetary travellers. But that’s not all it will do. See 5.1.1 below. And seeAnd the article is athttps://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/mars-organic-compounds-methane-curiosity-space-science/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=wildscience_20180618::rid=89305642155 The Chinese Renaissance and Likely New Technological Advances5.1 In Biochemistry5.1.1 The Epigenetic Control of the Aging Process and The Epigenetic Key to Interplanetary TravelThe only major government in the world which appears to be talking to David Andrew Sinclair is the Chinese Government. SeeThe Transition to the Long-Living Society Part 5 – George Tait Edwards – Medium particularly section 4.11 which points out:“Astronauts experience DNA damage in space that can lead to cancer and premature aging, so when news of the study began to circulate, NASA got in touch. Sinclair has another project now — “What we’ve been working on with the NASA scientists is to formulate the [NAD] pill for a journey to Mars,” Sinclair said.”At present, the radiation on a trip to Mars would kill the occupants of the spaceship, but Sinclair’s research is very likely to provide a survival pill for that journey, with profound implications for human life on Earth.And Section 4.2 says“4.2 ChinaThe most intelligent government in the world — the Chinese one — are in discussions with Prof Sinclair. The highest levels of the Chinese Government appear to be involved in these discussions, as Professor Sinclair reports atDavid Sinclair’s beginner’s guide to anti-ageing“In passing, he [David Andrew Sinclair] mentions he’s advising a large Asian nation (China, he clarifies after some questions) on how economic growth and a healthy population intersect.“This gets down to how do you transform the planet economically and not just [with] health,” he says.“The advice I’m giving that nation — and it’s at the highest level — they now want to know how do they raise up not just the economics, but the health [of their people]. Because they are very clever, they know [the two] have to go hand in hand.”If the Trump administration understood that principle, Obamacare would be extended and not reduced. If the British Government understood that principle, the underfunding of the NHS would cease. But these governments would also have to understand the Shimomuran Macroeconomics which makes such policies affordable and an assistance to growth.”5.1.2 The stimulation of intellectual capabilityThere are many drugs which improve the duration and often the intensity of intellectual endeavour. Most of these so-called "nootropics" do not have any proven effectiveness but a few seem to be effective.Drugs that are used to treat Alzheimers, for example, seem to reverse some of the outcomes of mental decline. Hydergine (or ergoloid mesylates) appears to work by reducing the increases in monamine oxidase (MAO) in the blood, where it assists cognitive impairment or recovery from a stroke. Side effects from Hydergine are minimal.Other substances which elevate dopamine and safely limit MAO appear to be effective. Pharmaceutical advances in this area are likely to have a major effect in future and will improve the basic level of inventiveness across the world.5.1.3 The "vital arts" - the genetic modification route to the futureGenetic modification of DNA will be one of the industries of the future. When frozen mammoths are again discovered in the Siberian ice, it may become possible for their cells to be implanted in and delivered by a female elephant. The repopulation of the Mammoth plains by herds of Alaskan elk, Sami reindeer and re-born mammoths could make a great contribution to global cooling. One image from the drawdown project shown below illustrates that possibility.5.1.4 The improved understanding of the electromagnetic foundation of gravityI think that should be possible.SeeGeorge Tait Edwards's answer to Can we use the scientific method to combine electromagnetic and gravitational forces into a unified field theory?6 My Caveats - The Downsides of Rapid Economic DevelopmentI can only see these potential developments in capital projects, in biological issues and in scientific developments in which I happen to be interested. The above list is inevitably incomplete and may be inconsistent with the stable economic development of nations. There are downsides in these new developments which are too large to be fully considered here.6.1 The Sterility of Conservative Rule Governments only come in two flavours, in the Progressive and the Conservative varieties. The Chinese concept of the Mandate of Heaven, that governments are only stable and successful when they act in the interests of all their people, is highly relevant to the future of mankind.6.2 The Fractious Nature of Rapid Economic AdvanceMany of these advances can be made within a nation without external assistance. This too has immense implications which are too large to be considered here.6.3 The Spread of Low-Income Limited hours or No-Hours contractsThe widespread adoption of low-income jobs in many nations is discouraging the formation of marriages. This problem seems most developed in Japan where many young men perhaps are disappointing their more realistic female potential partners, resulting in a significant dip in the Japanese birth rate. The Japanese Government has recognised this phenomenon and has produced a report upon it. See The Mystery of Why Japanese People Are Having So Few Babies. The Japanese Government at present sees no solution yet to this issue. But the re-adoption of Shimomuran-Wernerian macroeconomics by Shinzo Abe could lead to many more generations of the Japanese economic miracle.7 Conclusions7.1 Shimomuran-Wernerian macroeconomics opens the door to a new world by providing a newer and fresher intellectual universe, partly consistent with but vastly superior to the current level of Western economic understanding.7.2 The people of the world stand on the edge of a human explosion which is unprecedented in history. That parcel of changes leads to the abundant capital of a much better world and can be enormously beneficial to the prosperity and achievements of mankind, and may be brought about by the widespread adoption of Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics.7.3 Shimomuran-Wernerian Macroeconomics is the key understanding in the future of mankind because it empowers people to achieve things they could could not possibly do before, such ascreate a much richer capital-abundant world with widespread prosperity,reduce and resolve the problem of global warming andgo to Mars and perhaps elsewhere in this galaxy.We'll see. This collection of essays is perhaps most relevant:George Tait EdwardsBristol, England18 June 2018

1 Background This Question and Answer is my response to a question originally embedded in the comment/question by Martin Andrews about George Tait Edwards's answer to Why is “made in China 2025” so concerning to Trump that he demanded China must abandon that plan in order to stop the trade war?2 The Origins of Both Policies2.1 In Germany - “Industrie4.0/Germany4.0”This policy was born in and is dedicated to the advance of Germany’s industry for the sake of not only maintaining its current dominant position in the EU but also improving its future competitiveness and product quality.Both Germany and China see the need to upgrade their manufacturing and service industries to meet the future needs of their nations. The most comprehensive and effective article by Peter Altmaier (see below) covers so much ground that it is almost impossible to summarise, and I have struggled to do that, as shown below. But also see Sigurt Vitol’s thoughtful and considered paper about GERMAN INDUSTRIAL POLICY: AN OVERVIEW which can be downloaded at https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ba5f/3fe74bf2104008be298a7b332a673706ad3a.pdf2.1.1 The Objective of the Policy: The Creation, Across All of The German Economy, Advanced Computerised “Smart Factories” with a major upgrading in the optimised computerised interconnection of factory operations from raw materials, subcomponent and energy inputs to specific, individual-customer-specified outputs.As Peter Altmaier, the German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Germany has summarised it, in A modern industrial policy,“Germany has a strong and successful industrial base. We need to keep it that way, we need to expand that.”In his lengthy and utterly specific article, he describes a policy which is the “fourth industrial revolution” which he names and describes:“INDUSTRIE 4.0Digitally driven and smartly networked“Digitally controlled production processes, smart factories and a networking of sales, production and logistics: the term "Industrie 4.0" describes a fourth industrial revolution which is picking up speed in the wake of rapid digitalisation.” And the description of the technology is“Industrie 4.0 combines production methods with state-of-the-art information and communication technology. This smart approach makes it possible to deliver tailored products to meet individual customer requirements – at low cost and in high quality. Highly flexible production methods and logistics will make it possible to customise products. Customers and business partners will be directly involved in operational and production processes, and there will be production methods and products that are closely intertwined with state-of-the-art, knowledge-intensive services (hybrid production, hybrid products).”So the system involves the implied digitally-controlled minimal inputs of energy, water and raw materials, combined with the just-in-time delivery of highest quality SME subcomponents to be assembled into a low cost, high quality customer-specified customised product which can “talk” through the internet of things to its maker, its buyer and the network of things around it.(Presumably the first three industrial revolutions the Federal Minister may have in mind may be the previous IR stages of the ages of steam, of electricity production and consumption, and of computers/internet communications, and of all the associated developments in these eras.)2.1.2 The Major Industrial Sectors AffectedIndustrie4.0/Germany4.0 highlights the following industrial sectors where Germany at present has a considerable leadership (as shown by export values) as highlighted by the Federal Minister:“The objective here is to foster innovation across the board, so that it covers all the lead markets and key enabling technologies that are of relevance for Germany. These include for example [my identing]mechanical and plant engineering,microelectronics,production technology,materials technology,bio- and nano-technology,energy and environmental technology,mobility and logistics,healthcare and medical technology, and not leastinformation and communications technology.“The process of technological transformation and the trend towards sharing knowledge and information on an ever-growing scale are continuing at unabated speed. Similarly, new developments in information and communication technology are having a considerable impact on the production of complex goods and services requiring a great deal of research and expertise. It is now increasingly possible for such complex manufacturing processes to be digitally controllable.”So Germany 4.0 while theoretically applying to “innovation across the board” is focused on the nine key areas highlighted. And the paper goes on to enumerate the value and employment of the leading six manufacturing activities in Germany, like thisThe paper goes on to demonstrate that export performance, the growing importance of export-related services, and highlights more industries which have “Innovative technologies with potential for the future” which are listed as“Within the framework of the Federal Government’s High-tech Strategy, the fields of health, mobility, climate/energy, security and communication are particularly addressed as important markets with potential for the future in cooperation with business and science. The Economic Affairs Ministry has special programmes for aerospace, the maritime industry, and the fields of mobility and information and communication technology. Also, innovative SMEs in all sectors can access government funding via the Ministry’s technology-neutral programmes.”In addition to all of the above, Germany intends toSecure raw materials and use them efficientlyPromote raw materials transparency (so you can see what’s being used where and how it’s forming part of something else, and how it’s being safely disposed of or recovered at the end of product life)Focus on renewable energyDiscount energy as a cost factor to assist energy-intensive industriesProtect the German environment byperforming climate risk checkhelping mitigate climate change andintroducing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Technology to place extra atmospheric CO2 production in deep geological storage - as the Minister’s Report points out “The technology is currently being tested in Germany.”2.2 The Made in China 2025 initiative: Similar but differentAs Made in China 2025 - Wikipedia states “Made in China 2025 (Chinese: 中国制造2025; pinyin: Zhōngguó zhìzào èrlíng'èrwǔ)[1] is a strategic plan of China issued by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and his cabinet in May 2015.[2] China is moving away from being the World's factory floor (cheap goods and low quality) to move to higher value products and services.[3] In essence a blueprint to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries. [4] The goals of Made in China 2025 include increasing the Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025.[5] The plan focuses on high-tech fields including the pharmaceutical industry, automotive industry, aerospace industry, and semiconductors, IT and robotics etc which are presently the purview of foreign companies.[6]”2.2.1 The Origin of the PolicyChinese Premier Li Keqiang has made it quite clear that the inspiration for his Made in China 2025 Strategy was the Germany 4.0 industrial policy.3 The Comparisons Between Germany and ChinaBoth Germany and China have a highly educated and skilled workforce with millions of SMEs, many of which are acting at the forefront of their technology.Both countries fund the Wernerian transfer of invention to innovation in millions of their SMEs through effective local banking systems which help finance that process.4 The Differences Between the Germany 4 Policy and Made In China 20254.1 German Support for SME invention and InnovationAlthough Germany has a highly effective Sparkassen local public banking system to fund the establishment, development and updating of SMEs in each locality, Germany has a partly rationalised Sparkassen Banking System which, although the most effective in the world for a nation of Germany’s size, has the following sub-optimal characteristicsthe number of independent Sparkassen Banks has been reduced from 2,834 in 1903 to about 431 today - see German public bank - Wikipedia.East Germany was under Communist rule for about half a century and the Sparkassen Bank SME-supporting role during that period was diminished although still major, and it is doubtful if the East German states of Germany have yet recovered (by 2018) to the SME stimulation level provided in the states of West Germany.The retention of 15,600 local SME branches in Germany does provide a good level of SME support but bank branches do not always provide the excellent services or positive decisions that a local independent bank HQ can.One of the few jokes told by the Economist in times past was a response to a 1960s Russian claim that “East Germany proves Communism works” to which that newspaper replied“No - East Germany proves that the Germans can make anything work.” The relatively high growth rates of Communist East Germany (from 1945 to the 1960s) were due to the continuation of Germany’s Sparkassen Banks with their century and half traditions, of supporting SMEs even under Communist rule.Let me be as precise as the numbers can indicate: Herbert Simon has provided in his essay and book about the Hidden Champions of Germany the following dataWhich data I have summarised in the following generated table:More recent figures indicate that Germany has raised its delivery of “Hidden Champions” to above 1,600 with the result that the German level of champions per million people is about 20. It seems to me that a sub-analysis of the data is likely to show that some West German states are achieving hidden champion rates of about 25 champions per million people.Germany does not have an adequate system for the growth of “Hidden Champions” to world-serving scale, because it does not understand or use Shimomuran macroeconomics. Germany succeeds through the excellence of SME family firms and the few but large bank-supported major industries without having a “capital abundance” in all of its its manufacturing industry. Germany’s growth rate has always been intermediate because of that reality. The focus of German industry and politicians is upon Germany, and the Industrie4.0/ Germany4.0 policy would be much more impressive if it were an EU4.0 initiative funded by investment credit creation by the ECB across all of the EU.The EU is unfortunately being run by Germany as if it were a German Empire. Such an outcome was never intended by its founders who established and intended a co-operating commonwealth of collaborating nations. German politicians should grow into European citizens and while a “Germany first” bias in Industrie 4.0 may be initially acceptable, all of the EU needs a similar industrial upgrading.In my view the level of invention and innovation is a constant capability of all peoples. When Scotland was the beneficiary of the slave-trading profits of the Tobacco Lords these funds (along with some Sugar Lord monies also based upon black slavery) founded the local Glasgow-centred banks of Scotland and invested in the 88 companies that were the foundation of the local industrial revolution. When England had at most 900 Provincial Banks these institutions funded the conversion of invention to innovation in England and that created the English part of the industrial revolution from about 1750 to 1880. All of that is well documented in sources too numerous and too voluminous to quote here.5 The Industrial Coverage of Made In China 2025The Chinese data in the above table is incomplete because many Chinese SMEs are larger than the Hermann Simon definition as “having a revenue below $4bn”I have calculated the number of SMEs China should have, if the German number of SMEs per million people, is applied to China. About a third of Chinese SMEs seem to be missing, particularly in the western and central provinces of China where local bank SME support seems less supportive than the excellent local bank facilities in the Eastern coastal provinces and around Beijing.I have emailed (with no response so far) various Chinese economists and authorities pointing out that China could be growing more rapidly (I estimate by up to an extra 5%pa for decades) if these SME-supporting bank facilities were extended in western and central China.6 The Centrality of 5G Communications to the AI/IoT economy[Note: In some of the following quoted texts about 5G development, the Made In China 2025 policy is sometimes referred to as MIC2025.]The upgrading in mobile phone and internet connections from the 4G system to 5G is a key component of the success of the new Germany4.0/Made in China2025 strategies. The move from 4G to 5G brings about very large improvements in the operation of the internet for mobile phones and all other “thing users” of the internet. See ‘Made in China 2025’: Beijing has big plans for 5G – if the world lets it which outlines the situation as:“China’s road to 5G has been well planned. In 2012, two years before China Mobile launched 4G services on the mainland, various Chinese entities joined an international initiative to research and develop 5G.“With peak data rates up to 20 times faster than 4G, 5G will serve as “the connective tissue” for new mobile applications, such as the internet of things, autonomous cars and smart cities – providing the backbone for the industrial internet, according to a Deloitte report.“On the consumer side, 5G smartphone users will be able to send high-resolution 4K video within a few seconds, and both video games and apps based on augmented and virtual reality technologies will be seamless. The 5G networks will also be able to support the growing number of connected devices globally, from fitness-tracking watches to internet-linked televisions and smart speakers at home.“The International Telecommunications Union, the United Nations agency overseeing development of the “IMT 2020” global standard for 5G, said the new technology would support 1 million connected devices per square kilometre; 1 millisecond latency (representing the nearly instant time a packet of data takes to get from one point to another); greater efficiency in terms of power and use of radio spectrum; and a peak data download rate of up to 20 gigabits per second.”Let’s list these again, for these upgraded characteristics are astonishing: 5G has the advantages thatIt’s up to about 20 times faster than 4GIt serves as the fast backbone of the “Internet of Things”(IoT)It has a huge service capability (a million connected devices/km2) withvery fast millisecond latency for message transmissiongreater effective use of power and use of radio frequencies withdownloads of up to 20 gigabits/secondenabling not only “smart factories” but “smart cities.”As the above report continues:“The agency works in tandem with the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), an international collaboration of seven telecoms standard development organisations that draw up complete mobile system specifications.The 3GPP recently approved the much-anticipated global technology specifications for 5G, which is expected to kick off initial deployments by some of the world’s largest telecoms network operators either later this year or early in 2019.There are two sets of specifications completed under the 3GPP: one is called “5G stand-alone”, which was approved in June, while the other one passed in December 2017 is known as “5G non-stand-alone”.”China has been steeped in the proposed 5G trials, testing and upgrading of mobile phone and IoT Communications from 4G to 5G, as this chart illustrates:And where is the USA in all this? US phone producer companies are involved but Trump seems to imagine that the USA has the power to call a halt on the essential development of this massive upgrading to 5G mobile/IoT services in which America has not been centrally involved.As ‘Made in China 2025’: Beijing has big plans for 5G – if the world lets it reports:“Gear based on the 5G stand-alone specifications is designed to run independently of 4G networks – and this is the standard China is pushing. Operators will need to rebuild their core network and buy new 5G base stations to provide higher data speeds and greater capacity, as well as ultra-reliable, low-latency services to support machine-to-machine connection and autonomous driving.“The Chinese government wants every industry to use the most advanced infrastructure to upgrade productivity. This is a strategic agenda, and they think that 5G will help,” said Jefferies equity analyst Edison Lee, who covers Hong Kong-listed ZTE, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. He goes on to say“China has very ambitious plans to promote the industrial internet of things, cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI), the capabilities of which require the support of brand-new 5G networks.”“For example, self-driving cars require sensors, AI and roadside base stations for fast and reliable connectivity to allow vehicles to “talk” to each other to avoid collisions and avoid pedestrians. Today’s 4G networks cannot meet those quick response times.“China’s plan for an aggressive 5G roll-out is in line with the MIC2025 road map. Initially, this focused on the domestic telecoms sector’s ability to increase broadband penetration nationwide to 82 per cent by 2025 as part of a push for industrial modernisation. Another objective was to see local suppliers making 40 per cent of all mobile phone chips used in the domestic market.“Under an updated version published in January, Beijing now wants China to become the world’s leading maker of telecoms equipment. Two of the world’s biggest telecoms gear suppliers, Shenzhen-based Huawei and ZTE, have helped lead China’s 5G research and development efforts.”7 Discussion Most observers do not seem to see the fuller picture of the computer-integrated AI/IoT “new world”. Both German and Chinese factories will become smart factories producing intercommunicating goods and transforming every sector of their economies. The inputs and the use of scarce resources will be AI-optimised, the whole industrial process will be a less costly just-in-time highly efficient production process providing goods and services to consumers in a transformed “5G-implemented Economy4.” The products made outside that system are likely to be literally “dumb” and unable to communicate with other things but may transmit usage and other data back to Germany and China.7.1 The Implications Of Both Industrial ProgrammesBoth Germany and China are going to have the most advanced industrial manufacturing economies and best consumer life experiences in the world.7.2 The Trump Effect In Accelerating China’s DevelopmentWhen Trump banned the export of Intel microchips to China, the Chinese developed their own microchips within 14 months. Donald Trump’s forced march has brought the title of the “World’s fastest computer” back to the USA by June 12 2018 but China has 82 more supercomputers than the USA does. See The world’s fastest supercomputer is back in AmericaAnd also see This is how dramatically China’s beating the US in its share of supercomputers where it says“According to the latest Top 500 list, published Monday (June 25), China has 206 supercomputers and is leading the US by a record margin—82. The US has just 124 machines on the list, “a new low,” according to the statement accompanying the ranking. Just six months ago, China, with 202 of the top computers, was only ahead of the US by 59. Top 500 has been releasing the supercomputer ranking, compiled by prominent computer scientists, every six months since 1993.”7.3 The USA Is the Likely Loser, Whatever OccursPresident Trump appears to be trying to persuade the entire Anglosphere - the USA, Canada, The UK, Australia and the EU- to remain as a group of backward economies, staying with the slower 4G based communications while China and Asia adopt the much higher 5G standard. Of course Trump the Luddite does not know what he is doing nor understand the implications of what he does. The development of smart factories and cities requires smart politicians and Trump is not that.I do not wish to compare the likely results of an integrated 5G-based military technology operating at up to 20 times the speed of a 4G-based technology. But even the most approximate initial comparison indicates that the USA, as has happened since the manufacturing-industry-exporting Ronald Reagan, has failed to invest or participate not only in the development of 5G but also has failed to keep its key once-major industries within its borders and continually updated, and these events inevitably have significant military implications.The American Republican/Conservative preference for “Rule by, for and of the rich” produces a profound disdain for manufacturing, a neglect of the living standards of workers through Austerity, a rot of US roads and public services through “small government”, and a pathological culture in domestic and foreign relations. FDR was much better than that. Trump isn’t.8 Conclusions8.1 The Recent New Initiatives of Industrie4.0/Germany4.0 and Made In China 2025 are the inevitable next stage of factory and services production, based upon on-board Artificial Intelligence and Microchips/Internet of Things/5G Rapid Communications, involvIngthe integration of entire factory production processes through minimal inputs, much higher productivity, just-in-time subcomponent and delivery, to produce excellent mass produced but individually ordered products as specified and much elseThe creation of a fast intercommunicating 5G-based “human-thing” environment of driverless cars, pilotless aircraft, goods-serving personal-delivered education, health and other government services and entertainment services based upon superb quality VRLeading to a new highly advanced integrated goods-and-services providing economy in which the network of things provides an advanced living experienceTrump’s opposition to Made In China 2025 is very unlikely to slow down or stop its implementation8.2 The development of smart factories, smart cities and smart economies within a smarter environment is the inevitable next stage in the economic history of the world. It is unstoppable and inevitable and very helpful to the futures of Germany and China and perhaps in future in Europe and very probably in Asia.8.3 The USA needs to “get on board” and adopt these fresh industrial renewal processes and these policies and not to try to prevent progress in Germany and China. Or the USA could just politically accept the continuation of its trajectory of relative economic decline, which under current leadership seems inevitable. Alternatively, as a first step, the USA needs to study how rapid economic growth is financed in today’s world and adopt more people-serving policies. In my view there are hundreds, possibly thousands, of very capable American politicians, perhaps a majority of them women, who could reverse US economic decline. But that is unlikely to be a quick process.